Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 15. COVID-19 pandemic is ending.
- GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 15. COT reports. Great UK GDP has led to a new wave of growth. Pound buyers
- EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 15. COT reports. Bears did not have enough strength to defend 1.2110.
- Bitcoin almost reached $ 50,000
- GBP/USD. February 15. COT report. Donald Trump is acquitted by the Senate. Joe Biden talks about the "fragility of democracy".
- Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/15/21
- Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 15, 2021
- Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021
- Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin on February 15
- Forecast and trading signals for Ethereum on February 15
- Trading Signal for GBP/USD for February 15 - 16, 2021: Overbought
- Forecast for GBP/USD on February 15, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2021
- Forecast for USD/JPY on February 15, 2021
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 15. Key news of the weekend – Donald Trump was acquitted and Mario Draghi is the new
- Analisa Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Pasangan Mata Uang Utama EUR/USD Senin 15 Februari 2021.
- Analisa Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Pasangan Mata Uang Utama GBP/USD Senin 15 Februari 2021.
- Litecoin breaks triangle pattern and reaches our target
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on February 15? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on February 15? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin for February 14. Analysis of Saturday deals. Recommendations for the revival. Bitcoin
- GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. UK inflation is the most important report of the week.
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. Will the euro continue its upward march next week? What factors will be most important?
| Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 15. COVID-19 pandemic is ending. Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:58 PM PST
The COVID-19 pandemic is clearly ending. In fact, incidence rate in the US has decreased very significantly, almost 5 times below the recorded peak (it is now at 64,000 per day). As for global incidence, it dropped to below 300,000, from 830,000 before. With regards to vaccination, all is going well in the United States. Approximately 15% of its population has been vaccinated. Meanwhile, in the UK, only around 10% has been vaccinated, while in other large countries, it is below 5%. All in all, only 2.3% of the world's population has been vaccinated.
EUR/USD - euro continues to trade upwards. Open long positions from 1.2060. Open short positions from 1.1950, or from 1.2080. No significant news is expected this week, except for the US retail sales report on Wednesday, February 17. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:51 PM PST To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Last Friday, it was rather difficult to determine the entry point at 1.3783, ahead of the release of the fundamental data on the UK GDP. Afterwards, it became a little easier to take action. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. We can see how the pair touched the 1.3783 level for quite a long time, not making it possible to take a convenient entry point from it. A sharp rise in the pound due to the GDP data caused the pair to settle above 1.3820, from where it was possible to open long positions in sustaining the pound's growth based on a high of 1.3862, which happened. I advise you to open short positions for a rebound on the 1.3862 area, counting on a correction.
Good data on the UK GDP leaves hope for the pound's succeeding growth and further. Therefore, the buyers will initially focus their attention on resistance at 1.3909, which we have come close to during today's Asian session. Being able to break through this range and consolidation on it, along with testing it from top to bottom in the first half of the day creates a good signal to open long positions in sustaining the bull market. This will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3954 and 1.3993, where I recommend taking profits. A more optimal scenario for buying GBP/USD would be a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862, where forming a false breakout creates a new entry point into long positions. If bulls are not active and we see a rapid rally in the pound, then it is best to postpone long positions until a larger low of 1.3820 has been tested, where the lower border of the new rising channel also passes. You can count on a rebound from the 1.3820 level immediately by 20-25 points. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears' initial task is to stop the current bull market, so they will focus all their attention on resistance at 1.3909, above which it will be quite difficult to break through without a short pause. However, it is very dangerous to open short positions against such a powerful trend. Therefore, the optimal scenario is to form a false breakout in the 1.3909 area, which may lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862. The bears' succeeding direction will be the low of 1.3820, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls do not experience any special problems in the resistance area of 1.3909, then it is best to refuse to sell until the larger highs in the 1.3954 and 1.3990 areas are renewed, from which you can open short positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 2 revealed an increase in both long and short positions. This time there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The bulls' desperate attempts to surpass annual highs will lead to success sooner or later, so buyers do not lose hope that the bullish trend will continue in February. Each major decline in the pound prompts major players to raise long positions in anticipation of a more active GBP/USD recovery in the future. Long non-commercial positions rose from 47,360 to 53,658. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 39,395 to 44,042, which prevented bears from taking control of the market. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to the level of 9,616 against 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such a high volatility within the week, once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs. I recommend betting on the pound's succeeding growth. The demand for the pound will only increase as quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year. The support for the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March, will also have a positive effect on the pound's rate. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England was postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the pound to spread its wings. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a resumption of the bull market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of a downward correction, the middle border of the indicator in the 1.3860 area will act as a support. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:49 PM PST To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears tried to surpass the 1.2110 level last Friday morning, and it would seem that they succeeded. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened and how to proceed. You can clearly see how the bears are trying to settle below 1.2110 and test this level from the bottom up, which creates a signal to open short positions. However, this did not cause the pair to sharply fall, since after several unsuccessful attempts to move down, the bulls took control of the 1.2110 level, and disappointing data on the US economy weakened the US dollar even more. Wait for a signal to buy the euro from the 1.2110 level, since after its return the reverse test did not take place.
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed and the pair continued to trade in a narrow horizontal channel, in which it was in for the entirety of last week. Reports on changes in the volume of industrial production in the euro zone and the balance of foreign trade will be released today. However, these data are unlikely to put pressure on the market, as they refer to December last year and are no longer significant for the intraday market. Also, the Eurogroup is expected to meet today, at which issues of vaccination of the eurozone and its future prospects will be discussed. The United States will celebrate Presidents' Day, so volatility will likely be quite low. If EUR/USD rises in the first half of the day, buyers will be focused on getting the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.2149. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros in order to rise to a high of 1.2187, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls will still aim for resistance at 1.2220. The euro might be under pressure if buyers are not active during the European session. In this case, bulls will need to focus on protecting support at 1.2110, just above which the moving averages pass. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point into long positions in hopes to sustain the upward trend. If buyers are not active at this level, I recommend holding back from long positions until the low of 1.2069 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning, in the event of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2149, which creates a signal to sell the euro. Returning to the area below 1.2149 and testing it from the bottom up (similar to Friday sale, which I mentioned above) creates a convenient point to enter the market. There is no need to rely on eurozone fundamental reports, since even their discrepancy with forecasts will not affect the market and its future prospects. An equally important task for sellers is to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2110, the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair surpasses it or not. A breakout and testing this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will push EUR/USD to a low in the 1.2069 level, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2035 area will be a distant target. If we continue to observe an upward trend from the euro in the first half of the day, and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2149, then it is best to hold back from short positions until a new high at 1.2187 has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull down the pair by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 2 revealed a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the pair's downward correction in late January and early February this year. Weak fundamentals for the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates from the European Central Bank limit the euro's growth potential, so does the fact that vaccinations in the eurozone will proceed at a slower pace than expected. All of this will lead to a double recession in the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the EUR/USD recovery. Therefore, with each significant downward correction, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will be for investors. The prospect of canceling quarantine will clearly keep the market positive in the future. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-commercial positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-commercial net position fell to 137,003 against 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, but the market remains sideways. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2137 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2095 area. Description of indicators
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| Bitcoin almost reached $ 50,000 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:43 PM PST The leading cryptocurrency almost approached the nearest round level of $50,000 yesterday. Analysts believe that this level is no longer the limit for Bitcoin, which has further potential to rise. It can be recalled that on Sunday morning, the main digital coin updated its historical high, surging to $ 49,400. This morning, it almost rose by around 7%, but then declined again. As a result, Bitcoin traded near $ 48,800, although its price on some crypto exchanges was approaching $ 50,000 mark. However, it was not broken down, since experts recorded the beginning of a correction in the dynamics of this very cryptocurrency. The current week started not very well due to the decline of most cryptocurrencies. By 03:22 Universal time, Bitcoin was trading near the level of $ 46,500, and lost about 2% per day. Nevertheless, it has maintained a positive trend (+22.18%) during the previous week. This morning, Bitcoin continued to move in the range of $46,580-$46,639, plunging into a downturn. Analysts believe that this is only temporary, and the crypto asset will grow in the near future. It can be recalled that the leading cryptocurrency began its sharp growth after positive financial news. Bloomberg's analyst reported that Counterpoint Global, part of the financial conglomerate Morgan Stanley, considers the possibility of investing in Bitcoin. To invest such a large amount, the bank emphasizes that approval from the management and regulators is necessary. Counterpoint Global specializes in investing in promising organizations with impressive growth potential. The firm's management studies Bitcoin, evaluating its capabilities and attractiveness for its customers. Many analysts and market participants are inspired by the prospects of the main digital currency, which is not surprising. Throughout the past two weeks, the price of BTC has risen by more than 50%, and this is not the limit. Experts say that the first cryptocurrency has a huge growth potential. They expect a significant correction in the digital currency market, which will be avoided only by the main digital asset. According to analysts, Bitcoin can be a "safe haven", and investments in it will pay off, despite the off-scale market volatility. This is because it is strongly supported by the growing interest from major investors, in particular Elon Musk, the creator of Tesla and SpaceX, and others. The news about its active distribution both among private investors and among traditional banking structures also contributes to its price growth. It can be noted that the Bank of New York Mellon, the oldest financial institution in the United States and the world's largest depository organization, began working with cryptocurrency. They are developing a special platform on which one can conduct transactions with digital assets. Virtual funds will be stored in BNY Mellon, along with fiat funds. The organization intends to work effectively with these. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:34 PM PST GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair also performed a slight drop, after which a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth. By this morning, the pair's quotes rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). Closing the pair above the level of 1.3895 will increase the probability of further growth of the British dollar in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4063). An upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". Meanwhile, in the United States this weekend, the impeachment trial of Donald Trump ended. Let me remind you that the trial took place in the Senate. The senators, who served as jurors, had to sort out the question of whether Donald Trump was to blame for the January 6 riot that led to the death of 5 people and the pogrom in the Capitol? The decision made by the Senate turned out to be extremely political. The Senate acquitted Donald Trump. 50 Democratic senators voted in favor of the impeachment, 43 Republican senators voted against, and 7 Republican senators voted in favor. Thus, except for 7 Republicans who voted against Trump, we can say that their own voted for their own. Trump's fellow party members in the Senate once again saved the former president from impeachment, as well as from getting into the Guinness Book of World Records, as a president who was impeached after he left office. Thus, there is now one less political problem in the United States. However, the completion of the process did not have any favorable impact on the US dollar. The US currency remains under pressure against both the euro and the British dollar. Thus, there are more important factors that traders take into account when trading with both the major pairs. GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a slight drop. However, the bullish divergence of the indicator allowed a new reversal in favor of the British currency and consolidation above the level of 1.3850, which increases the probability of continued growth of this currency in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Friday, the UK released important reports on GDP and industrial production. The first one was better than traders' expectations and amounted to +1% in the fourth quarter. Industrial production was worse than expected, but traders paid more attention to the first report. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: On February 15, in the UK and the US, the calendars of economic events are empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators, now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. This goal has been worked out. New purchases are recommended when closing above 1.3895 with a target of 1.3976. It is recommended to sell the pound at the close under the trend corridor with the targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/15/21 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:34 PM PST Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.3845 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, there will be a continuation of the upward movement with the target of 1.4376 at the upper fractal (yellow dotted line).
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - up - Fibonacci Levels - up - Volumes – up - Candlestick Analysis – up - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands - up - Weekly Schedule - up General Conclusions : Today, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, there will be a continuation of the upward movement with the target of 1.4376 at the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3845 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue to start moving up with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, it will go down with a target of 1.3769-13 average EMA (yellow thin line) The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 15, 2021 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:32 PM PST Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the market from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday daily candle), while moving up, may test the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line).
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis:
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday daily candle), while moving up, may test the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday daily candle), the price may start moving up to the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may roll back down with a target of 1.2075 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 10:30 PM PST We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency has actually stood still for several days in a row. Of course it gradually decreased for nearly the entirety of Friday, and it completely won back all these losses closer to the end of the US session. But the scale of these movements, at best, can be called extremely modest. Something in the region of thirty points one way and the other. Which, in general, is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty on Friday. So there was simply nothing for investors to grab onto.
Today the situation is somewhat different, as data on retail sales will be published in Europe, which should show zero growth. More precisely, they can show no change in annual terms. And oddly enough, this can be perceived as an extremely positive factor, since the European industry has been declining for twenty-five consecutive months. That is, it has been decreasing since November 2018. The data for December last year will be published today. In general, despite the depressing state of affairs in the European industry, the fact that the recession has stopped already seems like incredible growth, which will contribute to the euro's appreciation. Industrial production (Europe):
After a short pullback from the resistance point of 1.2150, the EURUSD pair returned to the area of last week's high, while showing interest in growth. The market dynamics is below average, while local jumps are slipping in the market, which indicates that speculators are on it. Based on the quote's current location, it is clear that market participants are already practically touching the resistance level of 1.2150, where, given the recent pullback, a regrouping of trading forces could have occurred, which will positively affect the volume of long positions. Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the quote follows in the structure of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, taking into account the recovery, we are about halfway from the high of the trend. We can assume that the recovery process relative to the corrective move may continue to be present in the market, but in order to do so, the quote needs to stay above 1.2155, which will open the way in the direction of 1.2190, this is the first point of a possible move. In case the price does not surpass the 1.2155 level on a four-hour period, then a fluctuation along the 1.2110/1.2160 range is not excluded. From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region.
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| Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin on February 15 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 09:18 PM PST Bitcoin, H1 time frame: Bitcoin began its downward correction in the H1 chart. And if Ethereum was corrected by $ 200, which is more than 10% of its value, then Bitcoin was corrected by $ 2000, which is less than 5% of its value. Thus, we have the right to expect a deep correction and even a downward trend in Ethereum, but on the "cue ball", a small pullback can only be seen after the next update of the absolute highs. The technical picture indicates that traders are currently preventing Bitcoin to move even below the critical Kijun-sen line, which is located in the nearest area of the price. Thus, a rebound from this line can provoke the continuation of the upward movement. It should also be noted that the price has fallen to the level of $ 46,300 several times recently, and the two previous attempts ended with rebounds and upward reversals. Therefore, it is very possible that the leading cryptocurrency will move up. During the previous review, it was recommended to buy it if it breaks through the level of $ 48233. However, the cryptocurrency did not grow for long after this signal was formed and so, it consolidated back below this level, which could bring small losses to traders. In turn, it was recommended to sell Bitcoin if it consolidates below the level of $ 45879, but it did not happen. Bitcoin, M15 time frame: Only the lower linear regression channel turned down in the M15 chart. Thus, Bitcoin's price is unlikely to further decline. In addition, this time frame shows that the price spent more than an hour below the Kijun-Sen line, so either it was a false breakdown, or the price will slightly move down. There were discussions that large companies will also make new large purchases after Tesla bought out $ 1.5 billion of Bitcoin. And although there were no official announcements about new large transactions for the purchase of "cue ball", there are reports from time to time that this or that company or bank may start investing in cryptocurrencies soon. For example, it became known yesterday that one of the world's largest investment banks, Morgan Stanley, is considering investing in Bitcoin in the amount of about $ 150 billion. This was announced not by an independent expert in social networks, but by the Bloomberg news agency, citing its own sources. To make a transaction of this volume, the bank will need the permission of the relevant authorities, however, if such a transaction takes place, then the main digital coin may surge extremely. If the cryptocurrency rose by at least $ 5K on the news of Tesla buying 1.5 billion bitcoins, then what will happen to the price if Morgan Stanley invests 150 billion? This kind of news is necessary to provoke the continuation of further growth of the cryptocurrency. If the demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, then its price will further rise despite all the statements of "cryptocurrency experts" like Nouriel Roubini, Elvira Nabiullina and other critics. What's more interesting is in which direction and with what force the quotes will move, and not how much Bitcoin will cost in a year or two. Most likely, it will collapse by 80% within a few months, as it has already been. But it is too early to discuss this. So far, there is an upward trend that needs to be worked out. In any case, there are two trading ideas for February 15: 1) Buyers are still controlling the cryptocurrency market and are ready to push Bitcoin to new highs. Since the cue ball remains above the Kijun-sen line ($ 46756), it is recommended to buy Bitcoin, with the targets at the extremum levels of $ 482334 and $ 49600. In this case, the total profit-taking can be up to $ 2300 per lot. However, the quotes have consolidated below the critical line in the M15 chart, which makes it confusing. Thus, one should not rush to make new purchases. 2) Bears are still resting and are waiting for the bulls to leave the market. If the price consolidates below the Kijun-sen line ($ 46756), then it is possible to open short positions, with the target of the trend line. This can bring a profit of up to $ 3500 per lot. However, it is necessary to carefully monitor any news of the cryptocurrency market, since it can be recalled that one tweet from Musk led to a price growth of $ 5,000. Explanations for illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. It is possible to place Take Profit levels near these levels. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the H1 and H4 time frame. Support and resistance areas – areas where the price has repeatedly rebounded. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast and trading signals for Ethereum on February 15 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 08:55 PM PST Ethereum, H1 time frame: Ethereum tried to update its absolute highs several times last week in the H1 chart. Some ended up lucky, but some didn't. The quotes of this cryptocurrency started to decline after a new high near the level of $ 1872 was formed. Traders finally started fixing profits on long positions, which led to its decline to the level of $ 200. It was previously mentioned that 10% per day for any cryptocurrency is a usual inactive Monday. Therefore, the main question now is, will Ethereum prices move below the Senkou Span B line and the upward trend line? So far, it is these limits that maintain the upward trend. If they do not resist, then a strong downward movement will most likely occur, which will be justified by technical factors. Last time, it was recommended to buy Ethereum if a rebound occurs from the Kijun-sen line, but it did not happen. It was also suggested to sell it if the price breaks the critical line and it has been generated. Thus, now, traders should be in short positions with the Senkou Span B line and trend line as targets. Moreover, the Senkou Span B line has already been worked out, so sell deals can be closed now and wait for the formation of new signals. Ethereum, M15 time frame: Both linear regression channels turned down on the M15 chart, which confirms the formation of a corrective mood on the hourly time frame. Thus, we are now monitoring how the price behaves near the Senkou Span B line. The first attempt to break through this line was unsuccessful, which is clearly evident in the illustration. At the moment, traders are introduced to the opinions of various people who are very important for the economy and the cryptocurrency segment in order to form a long-term opinion and long-term forecast regarding cryptocurrencies. As an example, Elvira Nabiullina gave her comment on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and other popular tokens just the other day. In her opinion, they are not currencies, as they are too volatile and are used for questionable transactions. And although she acknowledged that people have an interest in cryptocurrencies, there are still high risks. On another note, the beginning of the correction for all major cryptocurrencies may be the beginning of a long decline. It was already mentioned during the previous week that the reason why the price of cryptocurrencies grew is almost exclusively due to one factor – "Elon Musk factor", who gave several comments regarding these coins, and also purchased Bitcoin for $ 1.5 billion. However, any exciting news fades and so, the usual harsh everyday life begins. Traders do not yet see how to form new long positions. There were no new reports that any major company decided to follow the example of Tesla. Accordingly, new data will be needed that will contribute to the further growth. The good news for cryptocurrencies is that such news is not a problem. As we can see, comments in social networks may well provoke a strong growth in the market. In any case, there are two trading ideas for February 15: 1) Buyers still take the lead, as the price continues to be above the Senkou Span B line and the trend line. Thus, it is recommended to buy Ethereum again if the price rebounds from the Senkou Span B line ($ 1661) or a trend line with targets set at the levels of $ 1757 and $ 1871. In this case, profit-taking can take up to $ 160 per lot. It is also possible to buy it, with a target of $ 1900, if traders successfully consolidate above the Kijun-sen line ($ 1762). 2) Bears managed to correct Ethereum by $ 200. Now, their main task is to continue attacking the bulls in order to consolidate below the Senkou Span B line ($ 1661). If this happens, it is possible to sell this cryptocurrency with a trendline target. Once this trend line breaks down, it will serve as a signal to open short positions with targets of $ 1557 and $ 1487. In this case, Take Profit can be up to $ 196 per lot. Explanations for illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. It is possible to place Take Profit levels near these levels. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the H1 and H4 time frame. Support and resistance areas – areas where the price has repeatedly rebounded. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for GBP/USD for February 15 - 16, 2021: Overbought Posted: 14 Feb 2021 07:48 PM PST
The GBP/USD pair, on Friday of last week, managed to close above 1.3850, opening the doors for a bullish move to the +2 / 8 Murray level around 1.3916, this bullish momentum is due to growing optimism from the UK leadership, in terms of the coronavirus vaccination campaign and could ease lockdown restrictions. At this moment before the opening of the European session, it is trading near the +2/8 Murray level, which represents an extreme overbought. A correction could occur in the next few hours as the eagle indicator is showing a signal of overbought. The GBP/USD pair is trading above the SMA of 21 on 4-hour charts with the key level of 1.3855 because below this moving average, a correction could occur. We can notice an uptrend channel on 4-hour charts, if it is broken it could add strength to the bearish movement. The first support is found at 1.3793, this level if broken could continue the correction to the level of the 200 EMA around 1.3671. Given the British pound is overbought, we recommend selling below the level of +2/8 murray with targets 1.3855 and 1.3796. Support And Resistance Levels For February 15 - 16, 2021 Resistance (1) 1.3918 Resistance (2) 1.3941 Resistance (3) 1.3971 Support (1) 1.3829 Support (2) 1.3797 Support (3) 1.3742 Trading tip for GBP/USD for February 15 - 16, 2021 Sell below around 1.3916 (+2/8 of murray) with take profit at 1.3855, and 1.3793, stop loss above 1.3950. Buy if rebound around 1.3855 (SMA 21) with take profit at 1.3916, stop loss below 1.3820. Sell if breaks at 1.3845 (SMA 21) with take profit at 1.3796 and 1.3671 (EMA 200), stop loss above 1.3880. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for GBP/USD on February 15, 2021 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 07:21 PM PST GBP/USD The British pound showed increased activity for growth last Friday and this morning. The price has surpassed the 1.3835 target level, now it is aiming for the nearest target at 1.3950/65 (low on April 5, 2018). The Marlin oscillator moves up from its own range on the daily timescale. Getting the price to settle above the target range of 1.3950/65 may lead to succeeding growth to 1.4070 (high in February 2018 and low in January and 2016), but the pound is ahead of the market for no apparent reason, so for now we are watching the price behavior near the nearest target of 1.3950/65.
Here we also see that the sideways range of the Marlin was formed inside the rising channel, to the upper boundary of which there is not much left, and once it is reached, the probability of a downward reversal will significantly increase.
The four-hour chart, on which the divergence is preparing, also warns of caution. When the target range has been reached, the price may reverse into a deep (up to 1.3565) correction. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2021 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 07:21 PM PST AUD/USD Last Friday, the Australian dollar tried to go under the balance indicator line (red) with the growing leading Marlin oscillator, but it failed. On that day, the price was restrained from above by the lower border of the target range of 0.7765/83, this morning the price surpassed it. As the price moves above the upper border of the range, we expect the pair to rise to the target level of 0.7830. Following this rally on the weekly and daily timescales, a double divergence could form, indicating a global market reversal after all the gains since last March.
A double divergence is already outlined on the four-hour scale, which may indicate that the price is out of the downward range, but the divergence is weak, so sideways movement is more likely, especially today, when the US is on holiday. If the price rises above 0.7783, there will be no trace of the divergence. We are waiting for the development of events.
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| Forecast for USD/JPY on February 15, 2021 Posted: 14 Feb 2021 07:20 PM PST USD/JPY The optimism in the stock markets encourages the USD/JPY pair to further rise with the first target at 105.32. The S&P 500 gained 0.47% last Friday. This morning, the Nikkei 225 jumped 1.20%, S&P/ASX200 added 0.95%. Today is a national holiday in the United States and China. After overcoming the target level of 105.32, the second and high target of 106.50/65 opens before the dollar. To move back to 104.00, the price must overcome the consolidation on the 9-11th in the area of 104.62.
The price faced a difficult resistance from the MACD line on the four-hour chart. If Europe picks up the growth in stock markets, then the MACD line can be overcome today. If not, the transaction will be postponed for one more day.
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| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 05:51 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 45.1762 The EUR/USD currency pair on the last trading day of last week was trading with a decrease, but at the same time with very low volatility. Over the past five business days, this figure has fallen to 50 points per day. So the first thing to note is: trading the pair is now quite problematic due to the low volatility. More precisely, you can trade, but the profit levels are reduced. Further, the price corrected on Friday to the moving average line and failed to overcome it. Thus, the upward movement may resume on Monday with a new force. A little confusing is the fact that the price has not yet been able to reach the previous local high of 1.2190, but it is not yet evening. After the price rebound from the moving average, this level can be overcome. Thus, at the moment, we are inclined to continue the upward movement. This hypothesis perfectly correlates with two "global fundamental factors", which also speak in favor of the depreciation of the US currency. Recall that the dollar is supposedly cheaper for more than 10 months based on the huge amounts of freshly printed dollars that are poured into the economy to stimulate. In the next couple of weeks, a new stimulus package may be approved, and then dollars will again flow into the economy and be dropped from the helicopter. Consequently, the US currency will again have grounds for a long fall. The failure of the Democrats. Even though the Democrats won both the White House and both houses of Congress in the last election, they did not manage to remove Donald Trump from high government positions. The former US president was acquitted by the Senate in an impeachment case in which he was accused of sedition on January 6. All last week there were hearings in the Senate. Initially, 56 senators (that is, 50 Democrats and 6 Republicans) voted in favor of the constitutional impeachment procedure against the former president. Then came the proceedings themselves in the events of January 6. The prosecution was represented by 9 congressmen-Democrats, who tried to present as vividly as possible the events of January 6, which took place directly in the Capitol itself during a meeting of both chambers. Thus, all the senators were also witnesses of the process in question. Democrats accused Trump of devising a complex strategy that consisted of four steps. At first, before the November 3 election, he spent several months convincing his supporters that he could only lose if the election was rigged. After that, when the election was already held and Trump lost, he appealed to all sorts of courts to invalidate the election or review its results, constantly repeating the mantra that the Democrats "stole the election" and not giving a single proof of his words. Then there was a conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia, in which Trump called on him to find the missing votes and threatened criminal liability. When it became clear that even those judges whom he appointed had turned away from Trump, Trump tried to disrupt the certification of the election results, which took place on January 6 in the Capitol building. Then, at a rally near the White House, Trump uttered the phrase: "If you don't fight, you won't have a country anymore," after which an angry crowd went to the Capitol. During the entire rally near the White House, Trump said several dozen times that "it is necessary to fight and fight". Trump's defense was far less eloquent and more concise. Republicans tried to convince jurors that Trump's words at the rally were not an outright call to attack Congress. His words were the result of a very bad atmosphere in American politics, not the cause. The defense also insisted that words can only be a crime if a disastrous result is inevitable after they are uttered. In the case of January 6, many radical groups came to a rally near the White House and this was known in advance. Thus, in general, the Republicans managed to break up the accusation. The last attempt of the Democrats was to talk about the inevitability of such a sad outcome since Trump has been heating the situation for several months, openly lying (about falsifications) and provoking his supporters to radical actions. But it was bound to fail. All the proceedings were short-lived, just a few days. The fact is that the proceedings in the Senate are not defined by the legislation and are held in an almost free format. There is a certain order, but it is not as strict as in the courts. By and large, one hundred senators, after they have listened to the accusatory and defensive speeches, can only vote whether the suspect is guilty or not. Republicans have promised to delay the trial for weeks by calling witnesses if Democrats start calling their own. That is, the Republicans were confident in their success initially and wanted to finish the job as soon as possible. As a result, the Senate voted, and 57 senators out of 67 required to impeach Trump cast their votes. Including 7 Republicans. Never before in history has a president received so many votes for impeachment from his fellow party members. Thus, Trump is now exonerated and can run for a second term in 2024. The former president himself, after the acquittal, again called the entire process "the greatest witch hunt in the history of the country", and the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, who voted against impeachment, said that Trump is still responsible for the events of January 6 and a criminal case can still be opened against him. The current US President Joe Biden was disappointed with the failed impeachment attempt, called Trump's guilt not requiring proof, and expressed regret for the presence of violence in the country, which should not be. "Although the Senate did not want to vote for impeachment, the essence of the charges is indisputable. Even those who opposed the sentencing, such as Senate Minority Leader McConnell, believe that Donald Trump is guilty of this shameful act. This is a sad chapter in our history. It reminds us that democracy is very fragile," Joe Biden said.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of February 15 is 48 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2071 and 1.2167. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a round of downward correction. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2085 S2 – 1.2024 S3 – 1.1963 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2146 R2 – 1.2207 R3 – 1.2268 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair is trying to resume its upward movement after a rebound from the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to keep long positions open with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2167 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down again. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with a target of 1.2024. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analisa Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Pasangan Mata Uang Utama EUR/USD Senin 15 Februari 2021. Posted: 14 Feb 2021 04:45 PM PST
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| Analisa Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Pasangan Mata Uang Utama GBP/USD Senin 15 Februari 2021. Posted: 14 Feb 2021 04:40 PM PST
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| Litecoin breaks triangle pattern and reaches our target Posted: 14 Feb 2021 01:50 PM PST In our previous analysis we noted the triangle pattern forming in the LTC/USD and we said that a break above $191 would push price towards $215. On Friday price broke out of the triangle. On Saturday price has reached the target and then some more. Bulls need to be cautious.
Triangle patterns are usually found near the end of the trend. Price has broken the triangle boundaries and reached our target. Now we prefer to be neutral and take profits. Another reason why prefer this stance is because we observe some warning signals in the Daily chart.
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| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 01:29 PM PST Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair corrected by 90 points at the end of this week, afterwards it sharply resumed its upward movement. Unfortunately, it was difficult for beginners to work out all these movements, since there was an almost recoilless upward movement at first, during which practically no new buy signals were formed, then there was a consolidation below the upward trend line, which we said was high. is likely to be false, and a new upward trend line was formed after Friday trading. However, it was created when the upward movement had ended. Therefore, novice traders now have an upward trend at their disposal, but you are advised to trade bullish only if a new buy signal appears: either a rebound from the trend line or from the MACD indicator. At the same time, the pound may start a new round of corrective movement, and you also need to be ready for this. But in any case, breaking the trend line can also be a way to form a sell signal. In general, the pound continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs, so it may update them at any time. Quite important reports were published in the UK on Friday. The first was in terms of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020, which caused a lot of discussion among traders. Forecasts have been negative for a long time, and even the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that at best, GDP in the fourth quarter will not change compared to the third. However, in the first assessment, this report turned out to be positive, that is, with an increase of +1.0% q/q. Of course, one should wait for the final assessment and only after should you draw conclusions, however, the first assessment was enough for the pound to rise in price again. The rest of the reports were less important and traders no longer paid any attention to them. Although the report on industrial production could put pressure on the pound, as it turned out to be weaker than forecasted. There will be no major releases in the UK and America on Monday, February 15. Perhaps the markets will try to win back the failed attempt to impeach Donald Trump, but there is very little hope for this. Markets continue to wait for the US Congress to approve a new stimulus package for the US economy worth $1.9 trillion. And this news may affect the pair's movement (as well as the euro/dollar). For now, you are advised to prioritize technical factors. Possible scenarios on February 15: 1) You are advised to consider long positions again, since the upward trend line was created. Thus, beginners need to wait for the price to rebound from the trend line or the MACD indicator discharges to the zero level and a new buy signal to form. The targets will be around the levels 1.3882 and 1.3906. 2) Short positions are not relevant at the moment, since an upward trend has been created. However, if the price settles below the trend line, then the downward movement may continue within, at least, a correction. Therefore, in this case, you are advised to open short positions with targets at the support levels of 1.3764 and 1.3744. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 01:29 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading very ambiguously on Friday. Considering the fact that important macroeconomic reports were not released on that day, the pair traded quite actively (more actively than this week's average). The nature of the movement was even stranger. At first, the US dollar began to rise in price, but by the end of the trading day it had lost almost all its advantage. Thus, the euro/dollar pair's quotes left the horizontal channel, in which they spent a couple of days, and tried to form a new downward trend. However, at the same time there is a feeling that the upward trend is preserved, and Friday's downward movement is simply a rollback within its framework. Recall that the trend line should be built at least on two distinct extreme points. Such a second point has formed at the moment. However, we are still not sure that this is not a downward trend, so the trend line was imposed using a dotted line. Nevertheless, we are leaning towards the option of continuing the upward movement and consider it as the main one. In our last euro review, we advised beginners to trade the pair if the price leaves the horizontal channel. It happened on Friday - the price settled lower. Therefore, in this case, you are advised to open short positions while aiming for 1.2089 and 1.2071. The first goal was eventually reached, but the second was not. Therefore, beginners could earn only 10-15 points that day. But, given the multidirectional movements during the day, this is also a good result. The macroeconomic background was extremely weak again on Friday, February 12. By and large, there were no important macroeconomic reports that day, just as there were no fundamental events. Thus, novice traders could only pay attention to the consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan, which turned out to be weaker than the predicted values. However, we are at a time when traders calmly ignore reports on GDP or inflation. Therefore, the upward movement in the afternoon is unlikely to be associated with it. The European Union will publish a report on industrial production for December on Monday, February 15. However, it is also unlikely to have any effect on the pair's movement. Thus, technique, technique and again technique. This greatly simplifies the life of novice traders, since it will be necessary to analyze and make trading decisions only for one type of analysis. The pair might move in a calm manner on Monday, as it did for the entire period of last week. Possible scenarios on February 15: 1) Long positions are currently conditionally relevant, since an upward trend line has formed. So now novice traders are advised to wait for a new buy signal from the MACD indicator and start trading bullish with targets at the resistance levels 1.2149 and 1.2167. 2) Trading for a fall is currently irrelevant, as the upward trend remains in force. However, if the price settles below the upward trend line, then it will be possible to carefully open short positions while aiming for support levels of 1.2077 and 1.2059. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2021 04:40 AM PST #Bitcoin 1H The Bitcoin cryptocurrency resumed its upward movement on the hourly timeframe on Sunday, February 14, having previously pushed off the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, attempts to start a downward correction ended in failure, and Bitcoin is growing in price again, despite a huge number of skeptics. The price has successfully overcome the $48,233 level and now the next target for growth is the $50,834 resistance level. In principle, the technical picture is now extremely simple. The price cannot even settle below the Kijun-sen line, so there is no reason to expect a correction or the end of the upward trend. From a technical point of view. There is also an upward trend line, to which the price does not even approach, the trend is so strong now. Consequently, traders are encouraged to continue to trade bullish despite being near all-time highs. Who said that being near the highs is a reason for selling? In yesterday's bitcoin review, we advised you to buy the cryptocurrency when the price bounced off the Kijun-sen line, which then ran at $46,301. Such a rebound was created, so Bitcoin should have been bought. The first target was perfectly reached ($48,233) and the price did not even stay near it, so now you can stay with long positions opened yesterday according to our recommendations. #Bitcoin 15M. Both linear regression channels turned to the upside again on the 15-minute timeframe. Since the price failed to settle below the critical line, which is especially clearly seen on the current timeframe, the upward movement may continue, while the trend remains rising in the short term. Meanwhile, the public continues to debate the act of Elon Musk and his Tesla company, which invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin last week. Musk was even more criticized for this act than supported, as it turned out that Tesla received environmental subsidies, and bitcoin is not an environmentally friendly product. Moreover, it was Musk's statements about bitcoin that provoked a new hype in the cryptocurrency market. Prominent economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis and is one of the most prominent critics of Bitcoin, said central banks and other regulatory agencies should closely monitor Musk's actions and words. If there are no questions about the deals of his companies, then the fact that his posting on a social network causes Bitcoin to rise by $5,000 within a day is not normal. Thus, we are even talking about allegations of manipulation of the cryptocurrency market. Roubini also criticized the CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Sailor, who also invested a large share of the company's reserves in bitcoin, thus acting completely irresponsible, according to Roubini. Nouriel also believes that bitcoin may collapse in the near future if the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex and Tether lose the court on returning $800 million, which were frozen in the accounts of Crypto Capital. Tether is also under investigation by the Department of Justice and the New York Attorney General on charges of manipulating the cryptocurrency market. Roubini also believes that cryptocurrencies are a tool for scammers who steal billions of dollars every day. The future, according to Roubini, is in digital currencies, which will be issued by central banks, they will also be controlled and provided by them. This will lead to the optimization of monetary policy. Possible scenarios on February 14: 1) Buyers continue to hold the cryptocurrency market in their hands and are ready to move Bitcoin to new highs in value. Since the "cue ball" has settled above the $48,233 level, we recommend staying with long positions while aiming for the resistance level of $50,834. The total Take Profit in this case can be up to $3,800 per 1 lot. Stop Loss can be placed just below $ 48,233. 2) Bears are still resting and waiting for the moment when buyers start taking profits on long positions. Thus, we do not recommend selling Bitcoin in the near future (at least today), as it is very dangerous in such a strong upward trend. Nevertheless, getting the price to settle below the critical line ($46,530) will allow us to expect a correction to the Senkou Span B line ($42,517), which can be used to open short positions. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines - trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. UK inflation is the most important report of the week. Posted: 13 Feb 2021 11:07 PM PST The British pound continues its carefree growth and does not take into account most of the factors that should have long ago contributed to the beginning of at least a downward correction. This week, the pound/dollar pair has increased by another 150 points. The most important thing is that the almost recoilless upward trend persists. And this is the main conclusion that we can make after analyzing all the factors. The British economy, which continues to experience difficult times, is slowly beginning to recover from the crisis. This is evidenced at least by the positive GDP in the fourth quarter. Although the increase was small, it is still better than the next reduction that traders were waiting for. However, if GDP grew slightly in the fourth quarter, then this value is not final and other macroeconomic indicators leave much to be desired. For example, the unemployment rate or the index of business activity in the service sector. Thus, we can only draw the same conclusion as for the euro currency. The main factor in the growth of the British currency remains the huge amount of trillions of dollars poured into the American economy using the "turn on the printing press" method. We don't see any other reasons. But even in this scenario, it is hardly possible to conclude the logic of the current increase in the pair's quotes. Recall that the upward movement is almost recoilless. And this is always strange and resembles the growth of bitcoin or oil, that is, in other words, speculative growth. When a currency or instrument grows, it is not because there are specific reasons, but because more and more traders want to join the "easy trend" and make "easy money" from it. And the most interesting thing is that there is nothing else to do. The trend is strong, why trade against it now? But it is precisely this logic that leads to even more unjustified growth of the British currency. No major reports will be published in either the US or the UK until Wednesday next week. Only on the third trading day of the week, the consumer price index in Britain will be published, and in the United States – changes in retail trade, changes in industrial production, and the minutes of the Fed from the last meeting. British inflation is interesting. In December, its value was 0.6% y/y, but now experts expect it to slow down to 0.4%-0.5% in annual terms. Core inflation may fall from 1.4% y/y to 1.2%-1.3% y/y. Thus, this report may become the next in a series of weak ones from the Kingdom. In the United States, retail sales may grow by 1% in January and industrial production – by 0.5%. In principle, if these figures come true, it will be very good. Unfortunately, we still do not expect that the statistics will be worked out by the markets. Therefore, the maximum that can be done with it is to check the box and conclude that the British economy continues to stall, as well as the European one. On Thursday, the standard report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US will be published, and on Friday – retail sales in the UK and business activity indices in both countries of interest to the pound/dollar pair. We are most interested in the report on British business activity in the service sector. It has been experiencing big problems in recent months due to winter "lockdowns". Thus, it is the service sector that is most hindering the economic recovery. If the business activity index starts to grow from the current 39.5, it will be a step in the right direction. However, the pound is still growing now, so it simply does not need the help of macroeconomics. Based on all of the above, it follows that the not quite logical upward movement is likely to continue next week. The latest COT report showed a strengthening of the "bullish" mood. The factors that supposedly led the pound to the current peaks have not gone away. From a technical point of view, the upward trend is also maintained and there are not even minimal hints of a correction. Thus, recently, nothing has changed at all to wait for a change in the trend. We're only worried about one thing. The current growth of the British currency is indeed very similar to the "speculative" growth. For example, the euro currency, which is affected by the same "American factors" is adjusted from time to time. Thus, the pound may continue to grow, but sooner or later there will be a massive closure of profitable long positions, as speculators will want to exit the market. Thus, a rather strong and sharp fall can begin, which is important not to oversleep. Therefore, traders are advised to continue to trade for an increase, as the upward trend persists. What is the point of trading against the trend? However, it is also recommended to remember that the upward trend may end and be prepared for this. At the same time, it is unlikely that this completion will coincide with some fundamental event, such as a speech by the head of the central bank or a meeting of this very central bank. Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair: The pound/dollar pair continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs, regularly updating them. The "swing" on the 4-hour timeframe seems to have stopped and now there is fairly strong growth in the pair. On Friday, traders tried to start a downward correction, however, it ended very quickly, near the Kijun-sen line. Thus, the markets failed to consolidate the pair below this line, therefore, the upward trend should be continued with the targets of 1.3876 and 1.3996. So far, we see the $ 1.40 level as the boundary target point. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Feb 2021 10:59 PM PST Tomorrow, a new trading week will begin. In this article, we will try to understand what we can expect from the euro/dollar pair. First of all, I would like to focus on the technical picture. Often, "technology" conflicts with "foundation" or "macroeconomics". For example, there is a buy signal and an upward trend, however, the Nonfarm Payrolls come out and the markets turn sharply in the opposite direction. However, this was the case before the pandemic. With the arrival of the coronavirus epidemic, a lot has changed in the world and the foreign exchange market. In particular, macroeconomic statistics are mostly ignored, and meetings of central banks and important speeches of the heads of these banks are infrequent. So it turns out that it is now possible to rely mainly on technology when making trading decisions. What about the technique? As we have already said, on the 24-hour timeframe, the pair's quotes rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci level, as well as from the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud of the Senkou Span B line. Thus, in the long term, the trend remains upward and the chances of updating the 2.5-year highs are high. As we have already said, "macroeconomics" has almost no effect on the movement of the pair. Accordingly, only the "foundation" remains. The "foundation" now consists of only two factors (in our opinion). This is "a factor of multi-trillion dollar packages of measures stimulating the American economy" and "a factor of the balance of forces of the American and European economies". Even though the US economy is recovering more quickly than the European one, it is the euro currency that continues to rise in price (if we take a long-term perspective). This is because in the second quarter of 2020, the American economy lost 31%, and the European economy lost 12%. Accordingly, the US economy is catching up with the European one, however, it has not yet caught up. And of course, the first factor of the "stimulus packages for the US economy". Recall that only during 2020, the US Congress approved incentive programs for $ 4 trillion. Also, the Fed buys at least $ 120 billion worth of securities from the market every month. That is, the economy is actively pumped with money. Accordingly, this very money is becoming more and more, respectively, the exchange rate of "this money" (in our case, the dollar) is falling. Some might say that the European Union also has its programs to stimulate the economy, however, they are much less voluminous. For example, the PEPP emergency program is worth 1.85 trillion euros. However, it began to operate last year and is still not completed. This means that out of 1.85 trillion euros, no more than 900 billion have been poured into the economy. The European government does not practice any "helicopter money" packages. There is no distribution of money to the population as compensation and assistance due to the pandemic. The 750 billion euro economic recovery fund, which provides grants and loans to the most affected countries, was approved with heartbreak, but at the current date, it has not even been formed. Thus, much less money is poured into the European economy, so the euro currency has become more scarce in the last year compared to the dollar. Hence its growth. As for the second factor, the "ratio of economies": here we still have to pay attention to the macroeconomic statistics. Although it does not have any immediate effect on the movement of the pair. Next week, the European Union will publish reports on industrial production, changes in GDP, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as the ZEW index of business sentiment. Of all the indices, we will be most interested in the index of business activity in the service sector, because the acceleration of the EU economic recovery also depends on when this sector begins to recover after the winter lockdown. Christine Lagarde focused on the weak state of the service sector this winter, so we also drew the attention of traders to this report. According to forecasts, the index will remain below the level of 50.0. Thus, we will not yet be able to state the beginning of the restoration of this sphere. Industrial production in December is expected to decline by 0.4%-1.0% every month. Also bad. The GDP report predicts a decline in the fourth quarter by 0.7% in quarterly terms and 5.1% in annual terms. Thus, the statistics from Europe next week may greatly disappoint market participants. Consequently, the US economy will continue to catch up with it, however, it will probably not catch up in the near future. Therefore, traders should simply fix the fact that the European economy continues to stall. No important speeches are scheduled for next week. Thus, after fairly strong growth of the pair this week, next week we may see some semblance of consolidation. This will not necessarily be a downward correction, however, it will probably be a movement inside the Ichimoku cloud with a continuing upward slope. On the 24-hour timeframe, the pair needs to overcome the Kijun-sen line to count on the continuation of the march to the north. We do not see any reasons why the US dollar may strengthen next week. These may be technical reasons, but the dollar has only recently completed a month-long round of strengthening. Therefore, now a new round of its fall is more likely. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the pair on the 24-hour timeframe bounced off important supports in the face of the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level. Thus, a new round of upward movement is expected. And as long as the price is not fixed below the Senkou Span B line, this option will be the main one. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, it is now recommended to trade for an increase. The pair on Friday began a round of correction but bounced off the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the end of the correction and the resumption of the upward trend. Accordingly, until the price is fixed below the critical line on the 4-hour timeframe, the upward trend continues and we should consider trading for an increase with the targets of 1.2139 and 1.2229 and up to 2.5-year highs. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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