Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb: I'm getting rid of Bitcoin.
- Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin for February 13. Analysis of Friday deals. Recommendations for Saturday. Have traders
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of February 15-19. The new COT report (Commitments of Traders). The pound
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of February 15-19. The new COT report (Commitments of Traders). The euro currency
- Technical analysis BTC/USD for February 13, 2021
| Nassim Nicholas Taleb: I'm getting rid of Bitcoin. Posted: 13 Feb 2021 08:07 AM PST
The world-famous writer and philosopher, who is directly related to exchanges and trading on them, the author of the book "Black Swan" and several other works, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, said that he decided to get rid of bitcoins. According to Taleb, the currency should not be more volatile than what you buy for it. The philosopher believes that the main problem of cryptocurrency is the inability to assess the value of goods and services in it. Because now the cue ball can cost $ 20,000 per coin, and tomorrow $ 50,000. Taleb indirectly stated that bitcoin's recent rise is "hype" or "speculative": "Bitcoin has been hijacked by coronavirus-denying sociopaths with an amoeba-level mindset." Taleb also said on social media that the attractiveness of the currency depends on its "opacity" and "ability to promote tax fraud". Many users of social networks immediately began to object to Taleb, stating that most recently, Elon Musk purchased $ 1.5 billion worth of bitcoins through his company, and also noting that the "cue ball" is a completely anonymous cryptocurrency. Earlier, Taleb repeatedly spoke out against bitcoin, not openly criticizing it, but at the same time making it clear that this is not an asset that he would like to keep in his portfolio: "The emergence of cryptocurrencies has refreshed the situation and central banks have realized that there is a need to compete with them. This is a positive development as it puts pressure on the Fed. The main task of bitcoin is to scare the bankers. In the long run, I would prefer to hold bitcoin rather than the US dollar, but between cryptocurrencies and gold, I would choose the latter. Why do I need a piece of code? Gold is subject to the Lindy effect and will continue to exist for a long time." Thus, opinions regarding the "cue ball" and cryptocurrencies continue to vary enormously. We believe that bitcoin, like any other cryptocurrency – is a way to earn money in modern conditions. The price is determined by demand. If the demand is there and is constantly growing, then the price will constantly grow, even if we are talking about manure. However, the flip side of this coin is the fact that bitcoin has no physical appearance. It cannot be touched, it cannot be passed from hand to hand, it is of no value, and it does not bring any benefit at all (if you look at it simply as a piece of code). If everyone in the world suddenly thinks that cryptocurrencies are not interesting and unnecessary, then it will not cost anything. In any case, gold can be melted down, shares can be resold, and money is secured by the central banks of their countries. Cryptocurrencies are not secured and are not backed by anything. Therefore, at any time, the "cue ball", like its counterparts, can fall to any value. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Feb 2021 08:07 AM PST
#Bitcoin 1H.
On the hourly timeframe of February 13, the Bitcoin cryptocurrency exchange rate has moved quite a bit away from its absolute highs, which are currently at the level of $ 48884 per coin. Thus, despite the strongest growth in the last three months, the number one cryptocurrency is not going to even start a correction yet. At least the technical picture still suggests that the "cue ball" can at any time rush up again. The price continues to be located above the critical line, although it has come as close to the price as possible in recent days. Still, the bears don't have the strength to start moving down. Or maybe the bears themselves are not just on the market? And the bulls do not want to close profitable long positions. One way or another, but so far we can not conclude that it is time to get rid of bitcoin. The trend is very strong, however, a correction is still imminent. In the last week, a whole HYIP has formed around the number one cryptocurrency. However, we remind you that the last time, three years ago, when bitcoin rose several times to $ 20,000 per coin, then followed by a collapse of 80-85%. It should be remembered that bitcoin is not backed by anything. It is not an asset like gold, and it is not backed by anyone's guarantees like any currency. #Bitcoin 15M.
On the 15-minute timeframe, both linear regression channels turned sideways. Thus, at the moment, we can count on a small correction, which can already be completed, since the price twice failed to go below the Kijun-sen line. Thus, the "cue ball" may suffer the fate of the pound sterling, which was trading flat for several weeks near its highs, and then just continued to grow. Despite the fact that we continue to evaluate all the news of the last week or two as hype, it should be noted that bitcoin is really becoming more popular. Maybe someday the public will calm down about it and it will become an ordinary asset (if I may say so), along with shares. However, so far, every new message about the popularization of the "cue ball" causes a new round of its growth. For example, on February 11, it became known that the largest US bank, Bank of NY Mellon, announced its entry into the cryptocurrency market. Representatives of the bank made an official statement, which spoke about providing its customers with the opportunity to store bitcoin, transfer it to other persons, as well as issue various digital assets. The launch of this service is not yet established, it will be implemented later this year. "The growing customer demand for digital assets, the maturity of advanced solutions, and improved regulatory clarity make it necessary for us to expand the offer of services in the cryptocurrency field," the bank's CEO said. At the same time, the world-famous company Paypal, which specializes in various types of payments, announced that it is not going to buy bitcoin. This was stated by the company's chief financial officer, John Rainey. "We are not going to invest the corporation's funds in such financial assets, but we want to capitalize on the opportunity for growth," Rainey said. Recall that recently the company Tesla invested 1.5 billion dollars in bitcoin, which immediately provoked the emergence of a whole mass of rumors that other giants may follow its example. However, there is no evidence that anyone else from the "blue chips" or just large corporations are ready to invest in bitcoin. Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for February 13: 1) Buyers continue to hold the cryptocurrency market in their hands but are experiencing difficulties with overcoming the level - the maximum of $ 48,233. Thus, we recommend buying bitcoin again if the price is fixed above the level of $ 48,233 with the goal of the resistance level of $ 50,834. Take Profit in this case can be up to $ 2,000 per 1 lot. You can also consider buying bitcoin in the case of a clear and accurate price rebound from the Kijun-sen line ($ 45,879) with a goal of $ 48,233. 2) The bears are still resting and waiting for the moment when buyers will start taking profits on long positions. Thus, in the near future (at least today), we do not recommend selling bitcoin, as it is very dangerous on such a strong upward trend. However, fixing the price below the critical line ($45879) will allow us to expect a correction to the Senkou Span B line ($42517), which can be used to open short positions. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Feb 2021 08:07 AM PST GBP/USD - 24H. The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward trend during the current week and once again updated its 2.5-year highs. In principle, the pair is already close to 3-year highs. What to do if not only the US dollar is being sold out based on "global fundamentals", but it seems that the pound is also being actively bought by traders. It is only necessary to compare the charts of the movement of the euro/dollar and the pound/dollar and it becomes clear that the British currency is not even particularly adjusted. For the last 5 months, it was just a couple of pullbacks down and that's it. In recent weeks, there have not even been any kickbacks. So the pound just keeps getting more expensive and that's it. At the same time, if in the last three years it fell based on specific factors, such as Brexit, then why it continues to grow so strongly now remains a mystery. The British economy is experiencing serious problems and it is unclear when it will begin to recover, especially positive news from the Foggy Albion does not come. "The factor of pouring huge sums into the American economy" plays a huge role, but this factor alone can not bring the pound from the level of $ 1.24 to $ 1.5. However, we also remind you that when trading any instrument, any fundamental hypotheses and assumptions must be confirmed by specific technical signals. And in terms of "technology", we now have an upward trend. So you need to continue trading on the increase. The COT report. During the last reporting week (February 2-8), the GBP/USD pair increased by 80 points. The pound is not rushing headlong to the north. The price increases are very moderate – 50-80 points per week, but they have been stable over the past five months. The latest COT report showed a major change in the mood of the major players. A group of "Non-commercial" traders opened new 6.5 thousand buy contracts and closed 4.6 thousand sell contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position of professional traders increased by 11 thousand contracts. Taking into account the fact that the total number of contracts of the "Non-commercial" group before the current changes was about 100 thousand, then 11 thousand contracts of changing the net position is a lot. And most importantly, the mood of non-profit traders has become more "bullish". Consequently, the pound may continue to rise in the long run. The indicators also show a very high probability of further growth. The green and red lines that represent the net positions of the "Non-commercial" and "Commercial" groups continue to move away from each other, which indicates the strengthening of the trend. Professional traders once again believe in the pound, although no growth factors of this currency come from the UK. It still doesn't make much sense to talk about the fundamental background, especially for the pound/dollar pair. What difference does it make, what is the fundamental background or the macroeconomic statistics, if the pound ignores it and just continues to grow? This week, there were two speeches by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who never told the markets anything important and useful. In the British regulator, everything continues to revolve around negative rates. It seems that the Central Bank has abandoned the idea of introducing them in the coming months, but it has not abandoned this idea in general. Friday's statistics from Britain were important. The long-awaited GDP figure turned out to be quite positive, given the two winter "lockdowns" in the Foggy Albion. +1.0% in quarterly terms, while forecasts predicted a drop of 2%. However, it is worth making an omission here. This is only the first estimate of GDP. The final estimate, which will be published at the end of March, may differ from the current one. However, if the numbers remain positive, it will indeed be good news for the pound. We do not even take into account other macroeconomic reports of the day. European markets did not react to the GDP of Britain. Perhaps the Americans reacted to this report, as the pair's growth resumed in the afternoon when the US trading session opened. Trading plan for the week of February 15-19: 1) The pound/dollar pair maintains an upward trend without any problems. Thus, on the 24-hour timeframe, the formal targets remain the resistance levels of 1.3943 and 1.4129. The flat, which took place a couple of weeks ago, ended without any attempts to change the trend on the part of the bears. Thus, now there is an upWARD trend again, which means that on lower timeframes, you need to give priority to uptrends and buy signals. Do not try to guess the global price reversal down. The argument "the pound has already gone up a lot" is not an argument for selling on a strong upward trend. 2) Sellers are still extremely weak, and the initiative in the market continues to be in the hands of buyers. In recent months, the bears do not even have enough strength to form a correction. Thus, on the 24-hour timeframe, there is no question of trading for a decrease. On the hourly and 4-hour timeframes, when forming a downward trend, you can consider trading down, but very carefully. In fairness, it should be noted that they are formed infrequently. If the price is still fixed below the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe, then it will be possible to consider short positions in small lots with a target of 1.3327. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Feb 2021 08:07 AM PST EUR/USD - 24H. Another week in the foreign exchange market and forex has ended, and what results can we make? As we have said in previous reviews, one of the key technical factors was formed last week on the 24-hour timeframe. The price perfectly worked out the 50.0% Fibonacci level from the last round of growth of the euro/dollar pair, as well as the Senkou Span B line. From both obstacles, the quotes bounced, forming a powerful upward signal as a result. During this week, when this signal was supposed to be worked out, we saw a very logical upward movement. All on the same 24-hour timeframe, the quotes rose to the Kijun-sen line and ended the week near it. Now, for further growth of the pair, the bulls must push through the critical line. However, another option is still not completely excluded: the price will spend some more time inside the Ichimoku cloud. However, we still do not recommend trading on the 24-hour timeframe. It is better to use it to search for global signals and trends, and then work them out on lower charts. The COT report. During the last reporting week (February 2-8), the EUR/USD pair fell by 10 points. The movement was more volatile during the five working days, however, price changes are minimal. During the same time, a group of Non-commercial traders opened 4.7 thousand buy contracts and closed 2.6 thousand sell contracts. Thus, their mood became more "bullish", and the net position increased by 7.3 thousand contracts. Of course, a week earlier, the COT report showed much more extensive changes. A week earlier, professional traders massively closed buy contracts on the euro currency. However, the downward trend from this did not end. We have already several times insisted on the special option in the long term. According to this option, the pair has sufficiently corrected downwards and now has excellent chances for a new upward trend. Data from the COT report a week ago cast doubt on this option, however, the latest COT report shows a renewed strengthening of "bullish" sentiment among major market players. The indicators also eloquently show that the overall mood remains positive in the market. The green and red lines of the first indicator, which show the net positions of the "Non-commercial" and "Commercial" group of traders, began to narrow again a week ago, but are still far from each other. In the long term, based solely on the COT reports, we can say that the end of the upward trend has been brewing for a long time. But what can you do if the demand for the US dollar remains zero? This week, there was a lot of potentially interesting news and reports, most of which market participants again ignored. This week, for example, Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell spoke. However, their rhetoric did not particularly impress the markets. In the middle of the week, the euro/dollar pair generally "died" and gave out mind-blowing volatility of 35-40 points per day. Central bankers again complained about the lack of stimulus to the economy, which will recover long and hard after the pandemic and the crisis. Also, Powell and Lagarde talked about their plans for how to restore the economy. Powell calls for reviving the labor market as quickly as possible, Lagarde believes that the most important thing is an investment in the economy. In addition to these speeches, the US consumer price index and forecasts from the European Commission on key economic indicators for the next two years were published. The European Commission's forecasts for the current year were lowered, which means that the growth rate of the recovery is falling. Lagarde also spoke about this, calling for the distribution of the 750 billion euro economic recovery fund to begin as soon as possible. Inflation in the United States, after several consecutive months of acceleration, fell slightly (the indicator excluding food and energy). However, this indicator is not too interested in the markets. Thus, we can say that the pair continues to move solely on technical factors, as well as on the "global fundamental factors" that we constantly talk about. Trading plan for the week of February 15-19: 1) The pair's quotes bounced off the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.1975 and started moving up. Thus, we would recommend at this time to continue buying the pair in small lots with the expectation of forming a new upward trend. The nearest target for the next week or two is the resistance level of 1.2305, which is located near the 2.5-year highs, to which buyers will eventually strive. However, they have yet to successfully cross the Kijun-sen line. On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward trend is already formed. 2) The downward trend will now have a chance to resume only if the bears manage to overcome the Senkou Span B line on the 24-hour timeframe and at the same time the 50.0% Fibonacci level. If this happens, we will recommend new sales with targets of support levels of 1.1885 and 1.1778. Much still depends on the "global fundamental factors", and they remain not in favor of the US dollar. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis BTC/USD for February 13, 2021 Posted: 13 Feb 2021 06:19 AM PST Trading BTC/USD (Bitcoin - Cryptocurrency) The volatility is very high for that BTC/USD is still moving between a large range of $2,000 - $6,000 daily; because Bitcoin's uptrend continues as more companies are buying Bitcoin. BTC/USD increased within an up channel - The top price ses at $48,883. Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high at $48,883, reaching a market capitalization of over $900 billion. Note : Wall Street Banks Inch Closer to Adopting Bitcoin. CNBC's Hugh Son reports on growing pressure from Wall Street employees for firms to adopt bitcoin. Yes! Bitcoin set a new All-time-high this week hitting around $49, the coin still has plenty of room for growth as the long-awaited $50k is closer than ever. BTC/USD was trending up, briefly breaking up above $44,900. The buying dynamics subsided, giving way to some uptrend fluctuations between the prices of $44,000 and $49,000 with another upturn to from the spot of $44,000 - $44,901. Last three days, the trend of BTC/USD movement was controversial as it took place in the uptrend channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still set between the prices of $44,000 and $49,000, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in these levels because the prices of $44,000 and $49,000 are representing the resistance and support respectively. The support of BTC/USD has already set at the price of $44,902. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. The market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of $44k - $45k. Buy orders are recommended above the area of $45k or/and $46 with the first target at the price of $48k; and continue towards $45k in order to test the last bullish wave. We are still hole on Our objectives $50,000. On the other hand , if the BTC/USD fails to break through the resistance price of $49k today, the market will decline further to $44 k so as to retest it again. ******************************************************************************************* Crypto industry news (Ethereum News - (Source : cryptonews)) ******************************************************************************************* 1) 7 Traditional Investors Who Said Bah Humbug to Bitcoin. While there is no shortage of investors who have given bitcoin (BTC) their seal of approval, there is a possibly even longer list of financial Svengalis who would happily dance on the cryptoasset's grave. Check out this list of just a few of the investment top guns who just love to nay-say about BTC. But who knows, maybe they'll join the other side soon, as recent examples of Ray Dalio and Marc Cuban demonstrated. 2) Canada OKs Its First Bona Fide Bitcoin ETF, JPMorgan on BTC. 3) Politicians appear set to use bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins as tools to score points with crypto-keen voters and citizens in some of the USA's biggest cities – as would-be New York mayor Andrew Yang and current Miami mayor Francis Suarez appear keen to outdo each other with far-reaching new promises and manifesto pledges that can also help attract new investments into these cities. Suarez, per Bloomberg, has proposed investing a "limited amount of government funds" in bitcoin, and said that he "is committed to promoting the emergence of bitcoin as it continues to gain mainstream acceptance." And the Miami political chief might not stop there: He also proposes paying municipal workers in BTC and allowing citizens to use the token to pay their tax bills. 3) The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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