Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for USD/JPY on February 8, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2021
- Forecast for EUR/USD on February 8, 2021
- Forecast for GBP/USD on February 8, 2021
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 8. Christine Lagarde is pessimistic about the recovery of the European economy.
- Analisa Teknikal Tenikal Pergerakan harian Mata Uang Kripto Bitcoin Senin 08 Februari 2021.
- Analisa Teknikal Intraday pergerakan Mata Uang Kripto Ripple Senin 08 Februari 2021.
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on February 8? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on February 8? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin for February 7-8. Recommendations for Sunday-Monday.
- Forecast and trading signals for Litecoin for February 7-8. Recommendations for Sunday-Monday.
- GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. Andrew Bailey's performance could shake up the pound again.
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. Speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, as well as American inflation.
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of February 8-12. The new COT report (Commitments of Traders).
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of February 8-12. The new COT report (Commitments of Traders). The euro currency
- Technical analysis BTC/USD for February 07, 2021
- Technical analysis of ETH/USD for February 06, 2021
- GBP/USD. Results of the week. Pound happy to play with results of the Bank of England meeting and Friday's US reports
- EUR/USD. Results of the week. Markets ignored all the European reports. Interest in the dollar began to fall
- EUR/USD. Failed Nonfarm and important Democratic victory in the Senate
| Forecast for USD/JPY on February 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Feb 2021 08:36 PM PST USD / JPY Last Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened but not significantly, with the release of a weak report on employment in the United States as the support of the trend line on the daily scale chart was able to hold the price. This morning, the dollar continues to rise, as does the Asian stock market: Nikkei225 2.06%, China A50 0.33%, S & P / ASX200 0.74%. If the price confirms the ability to grow during the day, then in a few days the target range of 106.50 / 65 will be taken.
Based on a four-hour scale, there is still a risk of divergence but the Marlin oscillator signal line turns from the border with the territory of decline, which can reverse the emerging divergence and continue to increase the price and the oscillator. The correction potential is maintained from Friday to the range of 104.93 - 105.20. In general, we expect the pair to grow in the target range of 106.50 / 65.
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| Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Feb 2021 08:04 PM PST AUD / USD The Australian dollar rose by 77 points last Friday, breaking the level of 0.7641. Now, you should wait for the price to go back under this level so that you can start selling again. Today, the important macroeconomic data are not released, and the weakened indicators on the trade balance in Germany are expected tomorrow, which can move European currencies going down even more and along with them the "Australian" will weaken.
As we can see on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has almost reached the upper limit of its own descending channel, and here the indicator may linger.
Based on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the indicator lines of the balance and the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin is at the top but it is turning slightly. It is quite possible that the AUD/USD pair will have enough potential to stay here for a day. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for EUR/USD on February 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Feb 2021 07:10 PM PST EUR/USD The euro's rise by 83 points from last Friday overlapped the decline on Thursday, which in some cases is taken as a sign of a trend reversal, but there are exceptions to all the rules - prices are currently lower than Thursday's opening, today the gap has been decreasing since the opening of trading. US labor data on Friday came out ambiguous. In the non-agricultural sector, 49,000 new jobs were created, while the December figure was revised to worsen to -227,000 from -140,000. The unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%, but to some extent due to a decrease in the share of the economically active population from 61.5% to 61.4%. In general, the markets did not make premature conclusions, the yields of government bonds and stock indices even rose, which shows the mood of investors to see more favorable news in other areas. The latest strong US figures for orders, revenues, construction still keep the hiring trend towards the fact that non-farms can exceed 200,000 in February.
On the daily chart, the euro has a margin of up to 1.2080 to reach the resistance of the MACD line, but if on February 1-2, the market showed signs of drifting to the area under this line, now the price may not reach it by moving up.
On the four-hour chart, the price reversed from the MACD line this morning. Rising to 1.2080 in this case will become a false exit of the price above the MACD line on a given time scale, which does not change the reversal mood of the market itself. The target of the decline is 1.1870-1.1915. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for GBP/USD on February 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Feb 2021 07:07 PM PST GBP/USD The British pound's growth by 64 points from last Friday led the quotes to the highs of the third decade of January, respectively, from the levels reached, the price will either turn down, again to the target levels of 1.3648, 1.3550 and below, or find strength to capture the 1.3800 level.
The Marlin oscillator does not show a strong intention to grow, today it is even declining in the Asian session, and on the daily chart. We are leaning towards the reversal scenario from the current levels, but we need to wait for confirmation - receiving a signal on a chart of a smaller scale.
On the four-hour chart, such a signal could be the price moving below the MACD line, below 1.3688. Perhaps such a signal will take place tomorrow, since we will not receive macroeconomic news from Europe and the United States. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 06:45 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 18.1874 The EUR/USD currency pair on Friday, February 5, began an upward correction and worked out the moving average line by the end of the trading day. Thus, despite the growth of the pair by 90 points, the downward trend remains relevant, as the price remains below the moving average. Therefore, in the event of a price rebound from the moving average, the downward movement may well resume (according to the "Linear Regression Channels" trading strategy), however, overcoming the moving average line will open a further path for quotes to the north. So, on Monday, everything will depend on overcoming or not overcoming the moving average. As for the "foundation" and "macroeconomics", in previous articles, we have already concluded that 90% of macroeconomic statistics continue to be ignored, and among the fundamental factors, we distinguish two that presumably have a long-term impact on the euro/dollar pair. Some readers might argue that the dollar was falling on Friday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report was weak, however, we once again draw your attention: the dollar was falling all day, and the report was released only in the afternoon. Meanwhile, on Sunday, February 7, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave an interview to the French edition of Le Journal du Dimanche. The head of the ECB said that due to the global coronavirus pandemic, the economic recovery will not begin until mid-2021. "We hope that 2021 will be a year of recovery," Lagarde said, "But we must recognize that uncertainty remains. Everyone is looking forward to the economic recovery, however, we are not immune to new, unknown risks. Let's be honest with each other: we will not return to pre-crisis levels until mid-2022." According to Christine Lagarde, GDP growth is expected to be around 4% or slightly lower in 2021. "Much will depend on the vaccination of the world's population. The faster all countries vaccinate a large part of their population, the faster the whole world will be able to return to normal life. Also, much will depend on the measures of the authorities, which will be a response to the events in the health sector," Lagarde said. The head of the ECB also said that the European Parliament has not yet ratified the recovery fund for 750 billion euros. Accordingly, the European Commission is not yet able to borrow funds, as planned in June last year. The European Commission can not distribute the funds, respectively, the beneficiary countries are still on starvation rations. At the same time, Bloomberg writes that the European economy is recovering from the crisis more slowly than the American or Chinese. Even though the US economy lost a record 31% in the second quarter of last year, Bloomberg experts believe that the US economy can fully recover by the end of 2021, and the Chinese economy has already reached pre-crisis levels. In the eurozone, however, the economy began to contract again this winter due to quarantine restrictions, so it is likely to reach pre-crisis levels no earlier than the end of 2022. But the topic of "coronavirus" for Europe means a lot now. And for the whole world. The latest forecasting models show that the whole world may be overwhelmed by the third wave of COVID-2019, although now we are talking about its more contagious strains. For example, the "British" strain is 1.5-1.75 times more contagious than the usual virus. This means not only that more people may get sick than during the first two waves, but also that tougher restrictive measures will be required to contain the spread of the virus. Thus, countries that are fully attentive to the health sector can introduce new "lockdowns" and "strict" quarantines, which will undoubtedly again negatively affect their recovery and GDP. And the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the authorities underestimated the difficulties with the use of vaccines and their production. The head of the EC said that not enough funds were invested to increase production capacity. For example, official figures show that nine times as much money has been invested in the US to build up vaccine production capacity. Also, von der Leyen responded to criticism of the EU regarding the too slow process of vaccination of the population. The head of the European Commission compared some countries, in which the vaccination process is much faster, while the European Union is a tanker. Naturally, it is moving much more slowly, but the European approach in this matter is the right approach and guarantees the receipt of vaccines by all participating countries, even the poorest. At the moment, according to official data, only 3.22% of the population of the European Union has been vaccinated, while the UK has already vaccinated 15% of the population and Israel - 60%. "We focused more on getting the vaccine out there at all - on developing it. At the same time, we should have thought more about the issues of its mass production," von der Leyen said. Because of the underestimation of potential problems, many in the European Union have high expectations about vaccination. "If I could turn back the clock, I would try to explain to people that we are moving forward, but this is a slow movement. We will face problems, delays because this is a completely new procedure for everyone," the head of the European Commission concluded. As for the prospects of the euro/dollar pair, they remain the same. As it turned out, the recovery fund in the European Union has not yet been ratified, but in the United States, Joe Biden's "plan to save the economy" can be approved by Congress in the coming weeks. Thus, as we said earlier, $ 2 trillion can flow into the markets and the economy, which will provoke a new fall in the US currency. Thus, if we take the perspective of the next few months, we believe that the fall of the US currency will resume. At the beginning of the new trading week, we expect to overcome the moving average and move up at least another 100 points. However, we should not forget that a rebound from the moving average can trigger a new round of downward movement.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of February 8 is 78 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1970 and 1.2126. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a new round of downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2024 S2 – 1.1963 S3 – 1.1902 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2085 R2 – 1.2146 R3 – 1.2207 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has started a round of upward correction. Thus, today it is recommended to trade down with the target level of 1.1970 if the price bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average with targets of 1.2085 and 1.2126. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analisa Teknikal Tenikal Pergerakan harian Mata Uang Kripto Bitcoin Senin 08 Februari 2021. Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:49 PM PST
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| Analisa Teknikal Intraday pergerakan Mata Uang Kripto Ripple Senin 08 Februari 2021. Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:47 PM PST
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| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 01:40 PM PST Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair started and continued its upward movement on Thursday and Friday. It began after summing up and announcing the results of the Bank of England meeting. Thus, the price returned to the 1.3744 level by the end of the last trading day of the week, although it did not work out it for the seventh time. In our last review on the pound, we did not recommend trading bullish and warned that trading down is associated with increased risks. In fact, any positions on the pound are now associated with increased risks. We have repeatedly said that the pair is now moving in different directions and there is no logic in its movements. As a result, the pair's quotes continued to grow. The MACD indicator turned down several times at once during Friday, but there is no downward trend at this time. Moreover, the upward movement continued throughout Friday, so the downward reversals of the indicator are the uncorrelation between its readings and the price movement. In general, you shouldn't have traded that day. As for the future prospects, we only see one opportunity to open positions on the pound. This is the 1.3745 level and a possible rebound from it or overcoming it. In the first case, as you might guess, it will be possible to trade for a fall, in the second - for an increase. No macroeconomic report from the UK on Friday, February 5, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey did not report anything interesting to the markets. Therefore, traders did not have much to react to during the day. It was reported in America that the US Congress may approve a new stimulus package for the economy in the near future, which includes payments to the unemployed and simply all Americans as part of anti-crisis measures. We believe that this may cause the US dollar to resume its decline in the medium term. No more important news. No major macroeconomic report or event scheduled in either the UK or the European Union on Monday, February 8. We believe that on this day everything will depend on technical factors, so we advise you to pay attention to them. The British currency will storm the 1.3744 level again for the seventh time. The pound's succeeding prospects depend on being able to surpass them. Possible scenarios on February 8: 1) Long positions are no longer relevant, since the price has broken the upward trend line and cannot overcome the 1.3744 level. However, if the price settles above this level, then beginners are advised to open long positions with targets at 1.3775 and 1.3820 and keep them open until the MACD indicator turns down. 2) Short positions are more relevant at the moment. However, the price cannot overcome the 1.3610 level in any way, so there is a high probability of returning to the 1.3744 level. We still recommend considering short positions, but you need the MACD indicator to discharge to zero and turn down. So far, the target is 1.3610. If the price settles below the 1.3610 level, it can also serve as a signal to sell with 1.3561 as the target. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 01:40 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair sharply turned up in the morning and started a fairly strong upward movement. Thus, after a few hours, the pair crossed the second downward trend line, which changed the current trend to an upward one. Now both trend lines are marked with a dotted line, as they have already lost their relevance. In our last euro article for beginners, we recommended trading up if the price breaks the trend line again. This signal turned out to be correct. Novice traders following our recommendations should have opened long positions at the close of the candlestick, where the trendline was broken, and in this case, by the time trading ended on Friday, they would have been in profit of 41 points. The buy signal was not canceled, therefore, in principle, it was possible not to close long positions. However, we always recommend not to postpone open trades to a new week, since a gap is possible at the opening of trades on Monday. The fact is that the market does not work on weekends, but the news continues to come. Therefore, on Monday the rate of the pair may not be the same as at the close on Friday. There was no signal to sell on Friday, so there was no need to trade for a fall that day. The macroeconomic background was very, very interesting on Friday, February 5. All the most interesting reports have been published in America. And although we have repeatedly drawn the attention of traders to the fact that the markets continue to ignore statistics, it would be unreasonable to skip the NonFarm Payrolls report. The actual value of the number of new jobs created outside agriculture in January was 49,000, which is 36,000 less than forecast. Formally, the report was weaker than the forecast, so the markets had a reason to sell the dollar that day. However, we believe that the NonFarm report is only 20% of the general basis for the dollar's decline on February 5. The dollar began to fall in the morning, so the Nonfarm report had no impact, at least until the afternoon. In addition to this, a report on unemployment was published, which fell from 6.7% to 6.3% and this is very good news, to which the dollar did not react in any way. Consequently, the markets reacted to the US reports somehow one-sided. We believe that the main reason for the pair's growth is technical. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak on Monday, February 8. Recently, Lagarde rarely indulges traders with important and meaningful speeches. This will most likely be the case on Monday as well. In any case, her presentation will take place late in the evening, so nothing will interfere with trading on technical signals during the day. Possible scenarios on February 8: 1) Long positions are currently relevant, since the price has crossed the trend line for the second time. So now novice traders are advised to wait for the correction and discharge of the MACD indicator to the zero level, afterwards we wait for a new buy signal and buy the pair while aiming for resistance levels 1.2059 and 1.2073. 2) Trading for a fall has ceased to be relevant at the moment. So now novice traders need to wait for a new downward trend and only after that should you consider trading options for a fall. At least, this option is not expected to be implemented tomorrow. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin for February 7-8. Recommendations for Sunday-Monday. Posted: 07 Feb 2021 07:51 AM PST
#Bitcoin 1H.
On the hourly timeframe of February 7, the Bitcoin exchange rate continued its downward correction after an unsuccessful attempt to update its absolute highs. However, this time the cryptocurrency exchange rate reached its high of almost $ 2,000 and began a rather strong fall. At least, just over the weekend, the bitcoin exchange rate fell by 3.5 thousand dollars. However, as we said in the article on litecoin, such volatility is normal for cryptocurrencies. Also, we have already said that technical factors have the highest priority when analyzing the movement of any cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is no exception. At the moment, the cryptocurrency has fallen to the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator and is going to work out an ascending trend line. A rebound from this line may trigger a resumption of the global upward trend. In this case, traders will aim for a new, regular update of the highs of the value. If the price falls below the trend line, then bitcoin can go into a very deep correction. We all remember the fall of the cryptocurrency from $ 20,000 per coin to $ 3,000. Such a fall is also absolutely normal. #Bitcoin 15M.
On the 15-minute timeframe, the lower linear regression channel turned down, the Kijun-sen line was overcome (however, there is no closure at the end of the hour, the cryptocurrency spent only 45 minutes below this line at the time of this writing) and the price has reached a level of $ 37,721. A rebound from this level may also trigger a resumption of the upward movement, however, it is likely to be overcome. In the article on litecoin, we have already said that the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, is in favor of strict regulation of the cryptocurrency market. However, it is not alone in advocating such measures. For example, most recently, the US Treasury Secretary and former head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also expressed her opinion on cryptocurrencies and their regulation. "Cryptocurrency is a big concern. Many of them are used to finance illegal activities, such as terrorism or various crimes. We need to explore options to limit their use and make sure that these channels are not used for money laundering," Yellen said. As you can see, her rhetoric is not much different from that of Christine Lagarde. The general meaning is the same: the authorities want to be able to control cryptocurrencies in the same way as they control money turnover. Naturally, as long as the cryptocurrency market has a relatively calm and free life, all cryptocurrencies will tend to grow in the long term. So far, there is no reason to panic. However, there is also no doubt that the authorities of all countries of the world will continue to strive to control cryptocurrencies because they are afraid of losing control over monetary resources. Roughly speaking, using cryptocurrencies, various entities do not inform the state what they spend their money on and how they receive it. It is hardly necessary to remind you that any government seeks full control over its population. Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for February 7-8: 1) Buyers let the initiative out of their hands. Thus, we recommend buying the cryptocurrency again in the event of a price rebound from one of the supports – $ 37,721 or an ascending trend line with the targets of the highs of $ 38,636 and $ 39,936. Take Profit in these cases can be up to $ 1,750. 2) The bears are trying to seize the initiative in the market and have taken the first step towards the formation of a downward trend segment. They still need to overcome the ascending trend line, which is already located in the immediate vicinity. If it is overcome, it is recommended to sell bitcoin with the targets of $ 36,161 and $ 34,840. Take Profit, in this case, can be up to 2,100 dollars. Burning forecast and trading signals for Litecoin. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast and trading signals for Litecoin for February 7-8. Recommendations for Sunday-Monday. Posted: 07 Feb 2021 06:37 AM PST
#Litecoin 1H.
On the hourly timeframe of February 7, the Litecoin cryptocurrency exchange rate was fixed below one of the two ascending trend lines. Thus, the upward trend is temporarily canceled, the cryptocurrency will now strive for the lower trend line, which lies near the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator. Cryptocurrencies are a very specific trading tool. They are traded in a completely different way from regular currencies and currency pairs. They are affected by fewer factors, and they are much more volatile. Therefore, when trading cryptocurrencies, you should always remember about security. None of the currency pairs can double in price within a month or two. Any cryptocurrency can do this in less time. The general technical conclusions are as follows: an upward movement is still more preferable due to the persisting second trend line. Thus, it is now possible to trade down, but from all significant and key supports, a rebound may follow with the resumption of the upward trend. Thus, in the event of such a rebound (clear and accurate), it will be possible to already consider options for long positions. I would also like to note in one of our first articles on cryptocurrencies that technical factors for analysis are almost always in the first place. #Litecoin 15M.
In the 15-minute timeframe, the lower channel of the linear regression turned down. And if none of the supports (147.43, 143.95, trend line) will be able to keep the cryptocurrency above itself, then the senior channel of linear regression will turn down. Further, the prospects for Litecoin will depend solely on the second trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. One of the main reasons for the high volatility of any cryptocurrency is the lack of control of its governments and central banks. Of course, theoretically, any central bank or government can prohibit the use of cryptocurrency on its territory, however, this will not affect its turnover around the world and even on the territory of this country. Cryptocurrency has no physical properties, it's just a code. The code can be hidden, placed on a remote server, and there are many other ways. At the same time, despite the huge amounts of capitalization of the largest cryptocurrencies, they are still much less in the world than ordinary, fiat money. Let's say how many trillions of dollars there are in the world? Even if some central bank (as the Fed is now) is going to pour another $ 2 trillion into the economy, this leads to a fluctuation in the euro/dollar exchange rate by 5-10% within a few months. Almost any cryptocurrency can rise in price by 5-10% per day without any reason. Simply because today the demand for a particular cryptocurrency has increased. Of course, central banks want to control cryptocurrencies. For example, the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, recently said: "Cryptocurrencies are a very speculative asset, with the help of which strange business is conducted, as well as money laundering activities. It is necessary to create global rules for the regulation of cryptocurrencies because if there are certain loopholes, they will be used by illegal organizations and individual criminal persons. There must be global cooperation and concerted action on this issue. First, coordinated action by the G7 countries is required, and then the list of countries can be expanded to the G20. But this problem needs to be addressed." However, while the turnover of cryptocurrencies is not controlled in any way, all of them (at least the main ones) will tend to grow in the long term. If only because their coins are no longer available, and the demand continues to grow. Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for February 7-8: 1) Buyers let the initiative out of their hands. Thus, we recommend buying the cryptocurrency again in the event of a price rebound from one of the supports - 147.43, 143.95 or an ascending trend line with the targets of the Kijun-sen line (152.37) and the maximum level of 156.43. Take Profit in these cases can range from 400 to 1200 points. 2) The bears tried to seize the initiative in the market and took the first step towards the formation of a downward trend segment. Therefore, we recommend trading downwards with the support levels of 147.43 and 143.95 as long as the price does not consolidate above the Kijun-sen line. Take Profit in this case can be up to 7,300 points. Also, short positions can be opened with the targets of the Kijun-sen line (152.37) and the level of 147.43 with a clear rebound from the level of 156.43. Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. Andrew Bailey's performance could shake up the pound again. Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:13 AM PST In the first article, we figured out what awaits the euro/dollar pair in the new week and concluded that technical factors will be in the first place. Now it's time to figure out what awaits the pound/dollar pair. We have repeatedly said that the GBP/USD pair is one of the most difficult and inconvenient pairs to trade at this time. One has only to look at the illustrations in this article to understand that this is indeed the case. In one illustration, a 4-hour timeframe and we see a "swing" on it. The price is constantly jumping from side to side without forming trends. The level of 1.3745 cannot be overcome for more than two weeks, which stops the formation of an upward trend. On the 24-hour timeframe, this upward trend is just visible and there are no "swings" on it. On the contrary, we see a clear trend on it, not strong, but almost recoilless. Well, as for the "foundation", everything is difficult here. We have already drawn the attention of traders that the "foundation" is interpreted very ambiguously by the markets. Simply put, only in favor of the British currency. "Macroeconomics" is completely ignored. And it would be fine if there were no problems in the UK right now. If only its economy was recovering slowly. However, in practice, everything looks completely different. More and more experts agree that the British economy will contract in the first quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2020. Two "lockdowns" this winter can not pass without a trace. Accordingly, the US economy continues to recover, and the British economy is falling again. We remember the global factor of "stimulating the American economy". However, there is not even a noticeable correction for the pound in recent months. All this complicates the process of analyzing and predicting the movement of the pair. In the new week in the UK, there will be few fundamental events. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech on Wednesday. A large package of macroeconomic statistics will be published on Friday. Reports on industrial production, GDP, and trade balance will be published. We believe that the GDP data may have an impact on the movement of the currency pair, however, the markets quite calmly ignored the GDP data in the Eurozone last week. Thus, the British GDP can also be ignored. But the speech of Andrew Bailey is much more important than the speeches of Christine Lagarde or Jerome Powell. If only because Bailey's last speech after the Bank of England meeting caused a reaction, but the reaction is not entirely logical. We assume that the markets will again try to find positive notes in Bailey's speech, and all the negative ones will be ignored. Or they will try their best to interpret everything that the head of the BA will say in favor of the British pound. On the 4-hour chart, most likely, the "swing" will continue. We also draw the attention of traders to the fact that the pound sterling can collapse almost at any time. The fact is that the pound is very overbought, and the bulls have no strength for new purchases. Therefore, the pound is hanging around its 2.5-year highs and can not continue to move up. This is because buyers do not want to take profits on long positions yet. However, when they start doing this, the pound will almost inevitably fall. It is important not to miss this moment, or at least to be ready for it. As for the common "foundation", many experts remain skeptical and pessimistic about Britain's break with the EU. There are a huge number of problems that the country and the government have already faced, as well as more to face in the next year or two. We have already talked about the "Scottish question" many times, but this is not the only problem of the Kingdom. Experts note epidemiological problems (Britain suffers from the "coronavirus" much more than many European countries), economic ("lockdowns", losses associated with Brexit), labor (not all areas of activity and business are defined by the agreement with the European Union), social and so on. For example, it has become more difficult for many British manufacturers and households to sell their products to EU countries, despite the existing trade deal. The service sector is generally not affected by the trade deal, so a huge number of companies are left to their own devices. It is also noted that the government does not have a clear strategy on how to live outside the European Union. This, of course, is to blame for the pandemic, which emerged just as Britain and the EU were in the final stages of breaking up. Therefore, the British authorities were simply busy with other things instead of devoting all their time to developing a clear plan for life outside the alliance. There are also very weak prospects for Boris Johnson to conclude a trade agreement with the United States. After all, Johnson was promised a deal by his friend Donald Trump, who lost the election with a bang. But Joe Biden didn't promise Johnson anything. Moreover, Biden was very unhappy with the actions of London, when it threatened to unilaterally violate some of the points of the Brexit agreement, which defined the order on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Biden, who has Irish roots, loves the country of the Celts, so Johnson's incomprehensible position upsets him. And of course, the "Scottish question", which is increasingly worrying London. Nicola Sturgeon and her party are unlikely to abandon the idea of leaving the United Kingdom and returning to the European Union. Now even the options of holding an independence referendum outside London's control are being considered. After all, Johnson does not want to permit to hold it. Moreover, Johnson cut off any Scottish hopes of holding this referendum in a year, two or five years, saying that such events are generational events and can occur no more often than once every 50 or 100 years. But that's hardly going to stop Edinburgh. And if the Scottish National Party consolidates its power following the May 6 parliamentary elections, the pressure on London will increase even more. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The pound/dollar pair continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs. At the same time, the 4-hour timeframe retains the "swing", so you can not give the recommendation to trade for an increase or a decrease at this time. We recommend that if you trade the pair, then use the lower timeframe, where at least short-term trends are formed. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:13 AM PST A new week begins and we can figure out what we can expect from it in terms of macroeconomics. We all witnessed how traders still worked out the macroeconomic statistics from America last Friday. We are talking about a relatively weak report on NonFarm Payrolls in the United States. Of course, there are also doubts here. There is no doubt that before this, the markets ignored the same Nonfarm Payrolls report and they ignored much more serious deviations and values of this indicator. On Friday, nonfarm came out worse than expected. At the same time, it should be answered that this is the first time in the last five or six months that Nonfarm has increased relative to the previous period. Other reports did not suggest a strong fall in the US currency at all. The unemployment rate did not change, and the changes in wages were not so strong that the dollar fell by 90 points. However, traders interpreted everything in their way. We believe that Nonfarm is not even the main reason for the fall of the US currency at the end of last week. The main reason is again technical, and several proofs can be given in favor of this. First, the fall of the US currency began early in the morning and lasted all day, and the US statistics came out in the afternoon. Secondly, after a fairly long fall (the last segment began on January 25), a correction was simply needed. Third, we have already said that according to the "global fundamental factors", the US dollar is prone to fall in the long term, which means that its entire growth during January can be interpreted as a correction against a long-term upward trend. Therefore, this trend may resume, especially because the price has adjusted by 50% on the Fibonacci from the last three-month growth area of the pair. In general, it seems that nonfarm only slightly helped the dollar to fall, but did not cause it. As for the European statistics last week, and in general all statistics, it was ignored. What's in store for us next week? There is not much to say about the Eurozone. ECB Chief Christine Lagarde is scheduled to make two speeches, on Monday and Wednesday. Naturally, at the moment, it is impossible to say what the ECB president will talk about and whether she will even touch on monetary policy or the economy in her speeches. So, potentially, these events are not important. In the States, the situation will be more interesting. No major publications are scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the inflation rate for January will be known, however, there will be no major changes and the consumer price index will remain at the level of 1.4% in annual terms. In the evening of the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. On Thursday, standard report on jobless claims. On Friday, nothing. Thus, we would say that traders will only be able to pay attention to the speeches of the ECB and Fed chairmen, as well as to the inflation report, throughout the next week. And then, Powell and Lagarde, most likely, will not tell the markets anything new and interesting, so these will be passing speeches. And US inflation should surprise, encourage, or disappoint market participants enough for a reaction to follow. We remind traders that most of the macroeconomic statistics continue to be ignored by the markets. So it turns out that the new week will be passable in fundamental terms (and macroeconomically), and the main attention of traders should again be directed to technical factors. We remind you that the price bounced from the 50.0% Fibonacci level on the 24-hour timeframe and this is a strong enough signal for the resumption of a long-term upward trend. Of course, it is recommended to trade on lower timeframes and you need to form your trends. For example, on the 4-hour timeframe, the price has just crossed the Kijun-sen line. Consequently, even an upward trend has not even formed yet. In our forecasts of a new future fall in the US currency, which may have already begun, we rely on the fact that a new package of stimulus measures may be approved in the United States in the near future. This means that an additional $ 2 trillion or so will flow into the economy, which will affect the balance of supply and demand of the US currency. However, as we have already said, any hypothesis needs specific technical confirmation. If they are not present, then the hypothesis is not confirmed. Based on all of the above, the new week should show whether traders are ready for the resumption of a long upward trend for the euro/dollar pair. In theory, the pair should not be affected by any external factors, and it will move according to the laws of the market. Accordingly, if the mood of traders has already changed back to "bullish" or is just beginning to change, then this will become clear next week. Of course, the latest COT report is very confusing, which showed that the mood of major market players has become more "bearish" by 34 thousand contracts. Recall that COT reports also require specific confirmations from technical factors. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the pair on the 24-hour timeframe bounced off important supports in the face of the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level. Thus, a new round of upward movement is expected. And until the price fixes below the Senkou Span B line, this option will be the main one. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, it is now recommended to trade for an increase. Most likely, the movement will be progressive and a small pullback may follow on Monday. On such pullbacks and corrections, you can buy a currency pair if you use the Ichimoku trading system. The nearest target is the Senkou Span B line on the 4-hour chart, lying at the level of 1.2120. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:13 AM PST GBP/USD - 24H. The GBP/USD currency pair has made pathetic attempts to start a downward movement in the long term during the current week. The price managed to fall to the critical Kijun-sen line, which was already located near the price. It was not possible to overcome this line, so the rebound from it signaled the resumption of the upward movement. The illustration clearly shows that the upward trend continues, but has been weakening recently. The amplitude of the pair's movement decreases, corrections and pullbacks become smaller and smaller. The Bollinger bands have narrowed almost to a minimum. Thus, there are no new bulls on the market willing to buy the pound sterling. Therefore, for purely technical reasons, the upward movement loses its momentum and may soon end. However, given the "global factors", the demand for the US dollar may fall again, which will lead to a new strengthening of the British pound. In general, the technical picture for the pound remains extremely ambiguous. On the 4-hour timeframe – "swing", on the 24-hour – weak, recoilless upward movement. Thus, the pound/dollar pair remains one of the most unattractive pairs to trade at this time. And there is nothing to say about its prospects. The COT report. During the last reporting week (January 26-February 1), the GBP/USD pair fell by 20 points. Even though the price changes of recent weeks are almost zero, the upward trend continues to persist and is visible to the naked eye. Although the latest reports do not speak unequivocally about the growing interest of professional traders in the British currency, the growth of this currency persists. A paradoxical situation. Paradoxical and difficult to explain. The latest COT report showed that a group of "Non-commercial" traders opened 5.5 thousand buy contracts and almost 5.5 thousand sell contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders has not changed, and the mood of the major players has not changed. In principle, this conclusion coincides with the scale of price changes for the reporting week. As for the longer-term prospects, it is still impossible to draw a clear and logical conclusion. The total number of open buy contracts for professional traders is still higher than sell contracts, however, the advantage is not too large (55 thousand against 44 thousand). The indicators, which are designed to visualize changes in the mood of large traders, continue to show the absence of a single party line". The mood of non-commercial traders is constantly changing, as indicated by the green line of the first indicator. The mood of commercial traders is also constantly changing, as indicated by the red line of the first indicator. And in technical terms, everything generally looks as if the pound will collapse tomorrow down by 500 points, however, the fundamental background contradicts this hypothesis. An extremely confusing situation. It still doesn't make much sense to talk about the fundamental background, especially for the pound/dollar pair. On Friday, the pair reacted to weak (but not disastrous) data from the US, however, a day earlier, it reacted inadequately to the results of the Bank of England meeting, and before that, for three days (and this is only this week), it ignored the macroeconomic background in principle. Moreover, how can we talk about the impact of "macroeconomics" or "fundamentals" on a pair that is growing steadily, despite the huge number of problems for the UK and its economy? Thus, the whole "foundation" is now very conditional. Much of the "macroeconomics" continues to be ignored. The pound sterling is already walking on the edge of the abyss. There are no new buyers, the currency is stuck around 1.3744 and has not been able to move further up for more than two weeks. But at the same time, the demand for it does not fall, so there is not even a downward correction. So now the question sounds like this: how long will buyers keep their long positions open? As soon as they start closing them, the pound is likely to crash down. The drop may be about the same as in September when the pair went down about 800 points in three weeks. Trading plan for the week of February 8-12: 1) The price keeps the upward trend without any problems. Thus, on the 24-hour timeframe, the formal targets remain the resistance levels of 1.3821 and 1.3943. However, in recent weeks, there has also been a certain similarity of flat, so it is better to trade using lower timeframes, which can more quickly track changes in the mood of traders. It should also be remembered that the pound can collapse down at any time. It should also be remembered that without overcoming the level of 1.3744, the upward trend will not continue. 2) Sellers are still extremely weak, and the initiative in the market continues to be in the hands of buyers. Recently, the bears do not even have enough strength to form a correction. Thus, in the 24-hour timeframe, there is no question of trading for a decrease. On the hourly time frame, when forming a downward trend, you can consider trading on a decline, but very carefully. If the price is still fixed below the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe, then it will be possible to consider short positions in small lots with a target of 1.3327. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2021 05:13 AM PST EUR/USD - 24H. During the past week, the EUR/USD pair fell by 120 points, however, this is not the most important thing. The main thing is that the pair has worked out the level of 50% of the last growth area. Thus, at this time, we can safely say that the quotes have adjusted by 50% from the last growth and now, therefore, can resume the upward trend. We do not take into account the 10-month growth area yet, as it looks like it will continue. Also, a very important factor is the working out of the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud of the Senkou Span B line. The price just worked it out perfectly and bounced off it. Thus, we received several signals on the 24-hour timeframe about the possible resumption of the upward trend. As we have repeatedly said, at the moment, we are inclined to the option of continuing the long-term decline of the US dollar. Thus, from the current positions, the euro/dollar pair can rush, at least, to the Kijun-sen line, overcoming which will open the way to new highs. At the same time, if the bears manage to lower the pair below the Ichimoku cloud, then we can talk about the continuation of the downward movement and even the formation of a short-term downward trend. The COT report. During the last reporting week(January 26-February 1), the EUR/USD pair fell by 80 points. Thus, it could be expected that professional players slightly lowered the demand for the euro currency, as the US dollar has been growing for 4 weeks in a row. However, the new COT report was a real surprise, which will now need to fit into the overall picture of things for the euro/dollar pair. During the reporting week, the most important group of Non-commercial traders opened almost 11 thousand sales contracts and closed 23 thousand purchase contracts. Given the fact that we have concluded that the upward trend is very likely to continue, this behavior of the major players does not fit with it at all. However, as we have already said, any assumption or hypothesis must be supported by technical factors and signals. So for now, these are just numbers. Figures that indicate a drop in the net position of non-commercial traders by 34 thousand at once. This means that their mood has become dramatically more "bearish". But does this mean that the euro currency will continue to fall? Is the demand for the US dollar falling in parallel, which is not taken into account in the COT reports? We believe that this is exactly the case when the report data should be compared with the technical picture. For example, at this time on the 24-hour timeframe, there was a rebound from the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level. Thus, the chances of growth for the pair are high, and the COT report contradicts this, so we do not take it into account yet. But if the Senkou Span B line is overcome, then the data from the "technique" and COT reports will coincide and a new long-term downward trend can be expected. This week was held under the flag of American statistics. During the week, several important macroeconomic reports were published in the euro area, however, traders still reacted to the US data. At the same time, there was no way to guess before the beginning of the current week which reports would arouse the interest of traders and which ones would not. The NonFarm Payrolls report has been ignored in recent months. Therefore, it may well have been the case that the last report would not have aroused any interest. However, it still caused it, even though it is impossible to conclude about its frank weakness. Yes, the actual value was lower than the forecast, but not much and still positive. Thus, as we have already said, in general, the growth of the European currency on Friday is logical. But why the equally important reports on GDP and inflation in the European Union were ignored at that time will remain a mystery. Thus, 90% of the macroeconomic background continues to be ignored by market participants and this should be taken into account. On Friday, no statistics were published in the European Union. In general, the advantage of "global factors" remains in favor of the euro currency. Therefore, from a fundamental and technical point of view, the European currency has an excellent chance of resuming growth. Trading plan for the week of February 8-12: 1) The pair's quotes continued their downward movement over the past week and only on Friday, bouncing off the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.1975, began to move up. Thus, we would recommend at this time to buy the pair in small lots in the expectation of the formation of a new upward trend. In the future, you can buy more when you receive confirmation of the beginning of a new upward trend. The nearest target on the 24-hour timeframe is 1.2147 (Kijun-sen), which almost coincides with the Senkou Span B line (1.2120) on the 4-hour timeframe. This area is 1.2120-1.2147 and is now the target area. 2) The downward trend will now have a chance to resume only if the bears manage to overcome the Senkou Span B line on the 24-hour timeframe. If this happens, we will recommend new sales with targets of support levels of 1.1885 and 1.1778. Much will depend on "global fundamentals". Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis BTC/USD for February 07, 2021 Posted: 07 Feb 2021 02:44 AM PST
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency) Forecast : BTC/USD - Bitcoin US Dollar : Bitcoin is likely to reach $50,000 before April, 2021, but the bulls must break through $40,920 in order to resume the up trend. Our dedicated contributors expect a modestly bullish outlook, forecasting price stability after this week's clear rally. The average outlook for the pair was trading above the area of $37,000 - $37,500. BTC/USD relatively pushes in an uptrend around the recent upper range-line at the price of $40,920 (last bullish wave). Last week, BTC/USD declines after failing to break the resisitance level at $40,920 (top price). Following the rdemanding of the $38,219 support and the clearing of the $40,920 resistance, BTC/USD price rallied to the psychological price level of $40,920. The upward move could not be sustained as Bitcoin faces rejection. Bitcoin price is retracing and may find support above $38,219. On the upside, if the bulls have broken the resistance level ($39,000), the upside momentum would have resumed. The next target price would have been the $40,920 high. However, as price retraces, it may find support above $38,219 for the continuation of the upward move. Further close above the high end may cause a rally towards $38,219. Nonetheless, the weekly resistance level and zone should be considered. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing $40,000 and $40,920. Immediate resistance is seen around $39,000 levels, which coincides with the weekly pivot. Moreover, the moving average (100) starts signaling an upward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above $38,219. So it will be good to buy at $38,219 with the first target of $39,500. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards $40,000. The strong weekly support is seen at $40,920. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of $37, 000, then this scenario may be invalidated. ******************************************************************************************* Crypto industry news (Ethereum News - (Source : cryptonews - coindesk)) ******************************************************************************************* 1) Bitcoin Back Above $40K as Institutions Lead the Way. BTC is back within striking distance of its all-time high set early last month. 2) Serbian Man Extradited to US After Being Indicted in $70M Crypto Fraud The scheme allegedly included offering bitcoin at "half market price." 3) Bitcoin Market Cap May Be 'Overstated' by USD 151Bn - Coin Metrics. Bitcoin (BTC) market capitalization may be overstated by USD 151.5bn, according to data from the crypto intelligence firm Coin Metrics. And the same may well go for the token's forks, the company suggested. Coin Metrics arrived at this staggering figure by looking at how many coins may actually be on the market. Per a tweet from the firm, Coin Metrics said that it was "widely understood that whilst there are 18.6m bitcoin in existence, many are lost and not available to the market anymore." Instead, the firm introduced a free float supply model, claiming that contrary to more conventional figures, "a more realistic representation" of bitcoin's supply would be 14.5m. 4) Spanish Tax Body Will Force Citizens to Declare Overseas Crypto Holdings. The Spanish Tax Agency – known in the nation as the Hacienda – has announced its intentions to step up its monitoring of crypto, and will move to force citizens and residents alike to declare their bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin holdings, even if those are held on overseas-based platforms. Per El Economista, the Hacienda has recently outlined its plans for 2021, and appears to suggest that it will apply Modelo 720 rulings to crypto holdings as of this year. The Modelo 720 is a declaration of overseas assets, held outside Spanish territory. Citizens must complete and submit the form if they are receiving money from companies based overseas, hold real estate outside the country or keep bank accounts in other nations. And now, this declaration will be applied to crypto and digital assets, as the body also "expands its surveillance" and will demand crypto holders hand over information on their assets. The much-maligned Modelo 720 system has come under fire from political rivals and critics, who claim that it is unfair – and a Brussels-based EU court has also begun looking into its legality. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of ETH/USD for February 06, 2021 Posted: 06 Feb 2021 10:36 AM PST
Technical market outlook of Ethereum (cryptocurrency) : Trading Ethereum (ETH/USD) : Since three weeks ETH/USD increased within an up channel, for that Ethereum hits new highs $1,513, $1,571 and $1,650. Ethereum price had a significant breakout above the price of $1,513, $1,571 and $1,650. So, the support levels are seen at $1,513, $1,571 and $1,650 on the H1 chart. Ethereum price is bullish but climbing higher will be strict, our next traget $2,000. Also, it should be noted that some news said : the trust fund has added around 25,000 ETH right after opening worth around $37 million. From this point, we guess there are some positive metrics in favor of ETH as well. Ethereum continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of $1,571 and $1,650. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at $1,571, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of $1,571. Hence, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of $1,571. Signal : Buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio ($1,571) with the first target at the level of $1,757. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of $1,757. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top ($1,757) to test it. The pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level $1,800. It might be noted that the level of $1,900 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top in coming hours. ******************************************************************************************* Crypto industry news (Ethereum News - (Source : Bloomberg)) ******************************************************************************************* Ethereum's recent gains have been supported by an ever-increasing level of futures open interest. As CoinTelegraph reports, open interest on Ether futures reached a record $6.5 billion, which is a 128% monthly increase. This suggests short-sellers are likely fully hedged, taking benefit of the futures premium, instead of effectively expecting a downside. Professional investors using the strategy described above are essentially doing cash and carry trades which consist of buying the underlying asset and simultaneously selling futures contracts. These arbitrage positions usually do not present liquidation risks. Therefore, the current surge in open interest during a strong rally is a positive indicator. Tyler Durden Sat, 02/06/2021 - 11:25 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 06 Feb 2021 04:32 AM PST 4-hour timeframe The situation with the pound continues to surprise and amaze. We have already said many times that it is possible to explain the reasons for the euro's growth in the last ten months, but it is still necessary to think of the reason why the pound is rising. In fact, those global fundamental factors that we talked about in the euro/dollar article also work for the pound, but do not forget that the European economy lost 11% in the second quarter of 2020, the American - 31%. and the British - 20%. The pound should feel a little worse than the euro, against the dollar. But in practice, the pound continues to rise. Clumsy, unsightly, incomprehensible, difficult to predict, but still growth. The pound returned to 2.5-year highs and it has hardly done so fairly and reasonably. If you do not take Friday into account, when there were reasons for the dollar's fall (we will talk about this below), the pound rose out of the blue on Thursday (we will figure out why), and before that it was getting cheaper for three days, giving hope would be a small, short-term downward trend. But, as usual, these hopes were not destined to come true. So, let's start with the British macroeconomic statistics, and without discussing it too long, we can say: all of it was ignored, as well as the European one. The package of British reports did not include such important ones as GDP or inflation. There were indexes of business activity in the service sector and production, and, in fact, everything. Therefore, there is nothing surprising at all. But the events of Thursday require more careful consideration and analysis. As we have said in our previous fundamental articles, the Bank of England did not make any important decisions at its first meeting in 2021. All the parameters of monetary policy remained unchanged. Moreover, none of the nine members of the monetary committee voted "in favor" of changing any parameter. Thus, there is unity in the opinions of the committee members, although, for example, previously Silvana Tenreyro openly supported the idea of negative rates. However, it doesn't seem like the time is right yet. And here lies the most important factor that traders overlook. A matter of time. Traders react to statements made by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey or other committee members in real time. And the comments that the BoE members make relate to the time that will come in a few months at least, and may not come at all. For example, Tenreyro said that she supports negative rates and so the pound fell. Bailey said that negative rates are too problematic and the pound has risen. However, none of them made a precise and clear statement that rates would not be lowered for the next six months or something like that. During the BoE meeting, there were theses that can be interpreted as you like. For example, they said that the central bank continues to study negative rates, and the UK banking system and other financial companies will need about six months to prepare for a possible downgrade. And at the same time, the central bank said that most companies are already quite well prepared, and the words about "six months" should not be considered as an inevitable future. That is, in fact, the BoE just poured water, without saying yes or no. But market participants felt that the central bank is not going to ease monetary policy in the coming months and rushed to buy the pound. And now remember, dear traders, when did the markets react to the statements of the central bank that it is not going to change monetary policy? They usually react to changes in monetary policy or to the announcement of these changes. In our case, the markets were happy that there might not be a rate cut. Now consider the US macroeconomic statistics. The report on the ISM manufacturing PMI was published on Monday, which slightly fell, but at the same time, it remained at a very high value of 58.7. The report on business activity in the ISM manufacturing sector was published on Wednesday, which increased compared with December, and also reached 58.7. Thus, business activity in the United States is in perfect order, which is not surprising, since the second lockdown was not even introduced in the country. Neutral data on applications for unemployment benefits were published on Thursday, the number of which reached 779,000. The number of secondary applications decreased from 4.785 million to 4.592 million. But the most interesting data was published on Friday. To begin with, the official unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 6.7% to 6.3%. However, the disappointing news went further. The main report of the week-NonFarm Payrolls - which shows the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, was only 49,000 with a forecast of +85,000. In fact, this is not such a big deviation from the forecast. It is clear that the actual value is worse, but not by much. For example, a value of -227,000 was recorded a month earlier. The Nonfarm indicator has been declining since June, and only increased in January compared to the previous month. So, in fact, not everything is so bad. The report on wages also turned out to be worse than the forecast values. It was predicted +1.0% m/ m, it turned out +0.2% m/m. However, this report was the least important of all. What do we have in the end? The pound and the euro had every right to rise on Friday. And this is almost the only case in recent times when the markets still worked out the statistics. The same Nonfarm Payrolls report has been mercilessly ignored in recent months. If in the case of the euro, the single currency's growth fits into the overall technical picture, then in the pound's case, the growth does not fit into any picture, it's just there. Thus, the pound/dollar pair has returned to its highs, both local and 2.5-year, so now the question arises, whether the bulls will be able to overcome the 1.3745 level. If so, the upward movement is highly likely to continue. If not, a new round of downward movement within the framework of the remaining "swing". Recommendations for GBP/USD: For long positions: On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is trying to resume the upward trend. Thus, the targets for long positions are now the levels of 1.3768 and 1.3837, but this means that the price should surpass the 1.3745 level, which is a local high, and from which the price rebounded at least five times. For short positions: You can open short positions in small lots while aiming for the support level of 1.3619 (according to the Ichimoku system), if the price rebounds from the 1.3745 level. However, take note that in any case, the pair is still moving erratically, which means that opening any positions is associated with increased risks. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 06 Feb 2021 04:32 AM PST 4-hour timeframe The trading week has ended in the foreign exchange market, and we are summing up its results. The week started at 1.2170 and ended at 1.2048. Thus, despite Friday's growth, the pair significantly fell during the week, by more than 100 points. Thus, the US dollar continued to strengthen. And from our point of view, it strengthened for only one reason - a technical one. We have repeatedly said that there should be corrections even on strong trends. Now we are seeing such a correction against the upward trend. Any to choose from: a 3-month or 10-month. And since the current movement has the status of a correction, then after it, in theory, the upward movement should resume. It could happen soon, or it could happen in a couple of months. It can start out of the blue, it can start after the Congress and the Senate approve a new package of stimulus measures for the American economy, it can start when this package begins to take effect. Thus, we still keep the option of an upward trend in mind. Let's go back to summing up the results. Several macroeconomic reports were published in the European Union and not a single interesting and important fundamental event occurred. The European Union is again in the shadow of the United States, where much more important information comes from. The eurozone published the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which was 54.7, as well as the unemployment rate, which was 8.3%. These data could be considered positive, as there was no deterioration compared to the previous period. But these reports are not important now. Business activity in the manufacturing sector, in principle, does not cause any concern. As we have mentioned many times, the service sector suffers the most in the context of a pandemic and quarantine. Thus, it was the business activity in the production sector that could make traders react. However, before this indicator was published, on Tuesday the report on the EU GDP in the fourth quarter was released in the first estimate. From our point of view, this is a very important indicator, and it turned out to be better than the forecast values. Analysts predicted a fall in the European economy by at least 1%, and a high of 2.2%. However, in reality, the economy shrank by only 0.7%, which is good news. And a report on business activity in the service sector was published on Wednesday, which did not change much compared to December and reached 45.4. Since the value did not grow much, did not fall much and remained below the 50.0 level, the traders rightly judged that nothing had changed. A more important report for the eurozone was published on the same day. We are talking about the inflation rate for January, which unexpectedly increased by up to 0.9% in annual terms. The forecasts were known in advance (+0.6%), but nevertheless, the consumer price index jumped from a value of -0.3% to a value of +0.9% in a month. Whatever the reasons, this is very good news for Europe. The report on retail sales was released on Thursday, which increased in December compared to November by 2.0%, which is already good, but slightly fell short of the forecast values. And this was the latest report from the European Union this week. Now let's talk about a more important factor. How the market reacted to the EU macroeconomic reports. In short, they didn't. Moreover, it is understandable that the data on business activity or retail sales were ignored, but why did they ignore the reports on GDP and, most importantly, inflation?! These are very important reports and their meanings were unexpected for traders. One way or another, the euro continued to fall, so it is easy to conclude that the markets ignored all the reports from Europe. Thus, macroeconomics" remains out of favor with traders. The reason for this can only be our hypothesis regarding more important and significant fundamental factors, which simply overlap the simple and ordinary macroeconomics. In previous articles, we have already talked about the fact that there are two important fundamental factors: "the balance of power between the European and American economies" and "a new stimulus package for the US economy." Market participants pay the most attention to these factors. Moreover, it is even better to say that large and institutional traders do, and not ordinary traders. That is why ordinary statistics are now simply not taken into account (with rare exceptions). Thus, we recommend tracking changes in more global factors than inflation and GDP. What should everyone do with this? First, trade exclusively by technique and not try to guess the reversals of the pair, especially global ones. Second, to closely monitor the topic on a new stimulus package for the US economy. If it is approved and adopted, then, with a high degree of probability, the dollar will fall by another 500-600 points in the near future. New hundreds of billions of dollars will simply pour into the US economy, which will simply increase the supply of this currency in the foreign exchange market. Third, each fundamental hypothesis should be treated as a hypothesis and not as a fait accompli. Therefore, technical confirmation is required. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair, according to the Ichimoku indicator system, has settled above the critical Kijun-sen line. Therefore, we believe that the pair has already made a big step towards a new upward trend on Friday. Of course, there is no need to get ahead of ourselves. Bulls still need to overcome the Senkou Span B line, near which attempts to break the current trend often end. Nevertheless, the first step to moving up has been made. Recommendations for EUR/USD: For long positions: On the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may have started a new upward trend. Most likely, following Friday's growth, at least a slight downward pullback will be required, afterwards the pair will likely strive for the Senkou Span B line (1.2120), to which there are still 80 points. This is a perfectly achievable target for the next two trading days. And you can try to reach it. You are advised to trade bullish as long as the price is above the Kijun-sen line. For short positions: You can open short positions when the price has finally settled below the critical line with the initial target at the support level of 1.1943. In this case, the downward trend may try to resume. But much will also depend on the global fundamental factors that we mentioned above. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Failed Nonfarm and important Democratic victory in the Senate Posted: 06 Feb 2021 04:32 AM PST The bears of the EUR/USD pair renewed their two-month low on Friday, surpassing the strong support level of 1.2000, which corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. But de facto the breakout turned out to be false: buyers seized the initiative during Friday's US session and returned the price to the previous day's opening, that is, to the 1.2035 level. Of course, such price dynamics is primarily due to fundamental factors, which we will discuss below. But from a technical point of view, the support level of 1.2000 confirmed its reliability: as soon as the pair fell below this target, the downward momentum began to gradually fade as traders began to take profits. The initiative was seized by the EUR/USD bulls a little later, which managed to turn the tide in their favor. Therefore, despite the onslaught of dollar bulls, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal. In addition, the dollar has lost several fundamental trump cards.
First of all, the January Nonfarm report turned out to be disappointing. Almost all components of the report came out in the red zone (except for the unemployment rate), and the previous month's indicators were revised downward. Thus, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by only 49,000 in January, with a rather weak forecast of 85,000. The December indicator was revised downward, and quite significantly: if initially it was reduced by 140,000, then according to the updated data in December, the number of employees decreased by 227,000. A similar situation has developed in the private sector of the economy. The January result is expressed in a slight increase of 6,000 jobs, while the December result was revised to -204,000 (from an initial estimate of -98,000). In the manufacturing sector of the economy, the growth rate of the number of employed for the first time since April 2020 went into the negative area (-10,000). Average hourly earnings slightly increased, but again - weaker relative to preliminary forecasts. For example, the indicator increased by only 0.2% on a monthly basis. In response to this release, the US dollar index sharply fell - in a matter of hours, the indicator collapsed from 91.48 to a target of 91.06. Major dollar pairs behaved accordingly. The greenback showed weakness against the Canadian dollar, although the "Canadian Nonfarm" was even worse: unemployment in the country jumped to 9.4% (from the previous value of 8.9%), and the number of employed decreased by 212,000 - this is the worst result since last spring, when Canada was at the peak of the coronavirus crisis. However, the dollar has weakened against the loonie. The euro-dollar pair followed the general trends, returning to the area of the 20th figure. The threat of a trend reversal has passed (at least in the medium term), since now traders will treat the 1.2000 support level with greater caution, taking profits when approaching this target. There is no doubt that many investors bet on a further decrease in EUR/USD, as indirect macroeconomic indicators did not foreshadow such a failed Nonfarm. For example, the growth rate of initial applications for unemployment benefits has been declining for the third consecutive week - this indicator came out in the green zone, at around 779,000 (the best result since the beginning of January). Therefore, the latest results of the Nonfarm report have become a kind of cold shower for dollar bulls. In addition, the safe dollar has ceased to be in high demand for another reason. The market has eased concerns about the fate of Biden's "America's Salvation Plan". The $1.9 trillion bill has received the green light for approval. Let me remind you briefly that until now the Democrats depended on the Republicans in this matter, since the Senate required the approval of the super-majority (i.e. 60 senators out of 100). Democrats are known to have 50 votes + the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. It was not possible to reach an agreement with representatives of the Republican Party, so the White House decided to use a legislative mechanism called "reconciliation.
For this mechanism to come to fruition, it was necessary to pass a budget resolution, which in turn had to be approved by both houses of Congress by a simple majority. And if in the lower house the resolution was approved without any problems (although two Democrats voted against), then there were certain doubts about the Senate. For example, only one debate on this issue in the upper chamber lasted more than 15 hours. The preliminary negotiations reached an impasse, and the votes were divided equally: 50-50. The vice-president used her decisive vote and supported her fellow party members - the Democrats. Now, Democratic officials can approve the nearly $2 trillion aid package with a simple majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This is expected to happen within the next two weeks. Against the background of such news, the dollar found itself under additional pressure, since the greenback was used primarily as a protective tool. Thus, the fundamental picture for the EUR/USD pair has significantly changed. The bears were unable to develop the downward trend, while the bulls actually held the main support level at 1.2000. Given the problems of the euro (the political crisis in Italy, the ECB's dovish comments, slowing inflation, the epidemiological situation, etc.), the pair is unlikely to be able to demonstrate large-scale growth. However, buyers can look forward to testing the resistance level of 1.2110 - this is the middle line of the BB indicator on the daily chart. It is too early to talk about higher prices. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
Bila Kita perhatikan chart 4 jamnya mata uang Kripto Ripple terdapat adanya penyimpangan antara Stochastic Oscillator dengan harga mata uang Kripto tersebut hal ini mengkonfirmasi bila ada potensi dari Ripple untuk bergerak naik keatas hingg ke level 0.5613 selama tidak ada gerakan retrace ke bawah level 0.3385 dengan tiba-tiba karena bila hal ini terjadi maka skenario kenaikan yang telah dijabarkan sebelumnya akan batal dengan sendirinya.(Disclaimer)
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