Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Tesla shares decline again: China suspects Tesla electric cars of espionage!
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on March 22? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on March 22? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The British currency continues to amaze with its inability to correct against a strong
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. The euro may continue the technical correction in the global plan. The Fed and ECB meetings
| Tesla shares decline again: China suspects Tesla electric cars of espionage! Posted: 21 Mar 2021 07:03 PM PDT
2021 is a pretty chaotic year for Tesla. At the very beginning of the year, the value of the shares grew and eventually rose to $883 apiece, but then a drop followed and now they are quoted at $654 apiece. In recent weeks, Tesla shares have been hit by a lot of negative information. It all started with the fact that Elon Musk decided to invest $1.5 billion through Tesla, which immediately caused a huge amount of criticism in his address. Then, there were problems with a whole series of electric cars, already sold to their owners, which had to be recalled for repairs. Next, Volkswagen announced its intention to push Tesla from the first place in sales of electric cars. And now in China, Tesla cars are suspected of espionage. The fact is that Tesla electric cars are packed with cameras, which, in theory, should be used to facilitate driving a car. However, this still means that they are shooting everything that is around them. Accordingly, if the Tesla car turns out to be on some secret object, then it continues to shoot everything around it. Of course, we are not talking only about secret objects, which are not so easy to get into. But even if we just talk about the competitor's factory, the competitor may not like it. However, according to some media reports, it was the Chinese military that suspected the Tesla cars that they not only allow the driver to see their surroundings through the monitor, but also transmit the captured information (or certain data) to the United States. But at the same time, many experts immediately noted a strange feature: the claims of the Chinese side almost mirror the claims of the US government to the Chinese company Huawei. Thus, it is possible that these are just retaliatory, mirror measures, and Tesla is the most convenient tool for implementing hidden sanctions. In view of these reports, Tesla shares sank another 4.4% and generally began a new round of downward movement. The head of the company, Elon Musk, also commented on the claims and suspicions of China, saying that if Tesla uses cars for espionage, he will close the company on the same day.
As for the technical picture, Apple shares have resumed falling in the last week. Recall that many experts have long predicted the stock market "Black Monday," believing that the shares of many companies are overvalued, as well as many stock indexes. Apple's stock prices continue to be below the Ichimoku cloud, so it's too early to talk about changing the trend to an upward one. At the auction on Friday, the quotes fell to $ 624 apiece and worked out the Kijun-sen line, which the bears failed to overcome. If there is a rebound (and so far everything looks like this), then the upward movement may resume. But the fundamental backdrop of recent weeks may continue to put pressure on the company's shares. In the case of a new round of upward movement, the price may rise to the first target - the Senkou Span B line ($709). It is recommended to buy Tesla shares with a target of $709 and a Stop Loss level below $628. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2021 02:59 PM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair The GBP/USD pair pair spent the fifth trading day of the week in the same horizontal channel, which we have already discussed in previous articles. Most of the trading now takes place between the levels of 1.3800 and 1.4000. But the 1.3862 level, which we also paid attention to earlier, does not look strong at this time: last Friday, the price crossed it at least three times. Also, a descending trend line was formed last Friday, but take note that this trend line is rather weak, since it was created inside the horizontal channel. Thus, it plays a certain role, but not too strong. However, this line can still be used as a signal generator. For example, if the price rebounds off it or the MACD indicator turns down around this line, it will be possible to consider options for opening short positions. Or, if this line is surpassed, you can expect the pair to rise to 1.4000. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair Four signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe last Friday, which deserved your attention. The pound/dollar pair was calm at night, but it started to move when the European session was about to begin. The MACD turned to the upside at the very beginning of this session, forming the first buy signal. At that time, the 1.3956 level was not yet there, so you were advised to trade with the 1.3999 target. The bulls failed to reach this goal, so the deal, most likely, was closed by Stop Loss, which should have been set to breakeven when the price went up 15-20 points. Furthermore, the MACD indicator has already formed a sell signal, according to which positions should also be opened - a short position. The closest level was 1.3862 and it was reached during the day - at the very beginning of the US trading session. Thus, traders could get around 60-70 points of profit on this signal. However, this is not all. The 1.3862 level was surpassed, so beginners could stay in short positions or open new ones with 1.3778 as the target, which, however, was not reached. And by that time the price had already gone down by around 80 points, so this sell signal could have been missed. Also, during the processing of this sell signal, the MACD indicator turned to the upside for a short time, however, at that time, the descending trend line on the 30-minute timeframe had already been formed and the Stop Loss was set at breakeven, so there was no particular point in reacting to this MACD reversal: if something happened, the deal would be closed at breakeven. The last buy signal was also a signal to close shorts for those who had not done so before. There was no point in buying the pair any more, since the trading day and the trading week were ending, and the downward trend line made it possible to only trade bearish. How to trade on Monday: On Monday, we recommend trading according to the downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. That is to consider sell signals and ignore buy signals. A price rebound from the trend line or a reversal of the MACD indicator near zero or slightly higher will allow novice traders to reopen short positions. As before, Take Profit can be set at a distance of 40-50 points, and Stop Loss at breakeven after passing 15-20 points in the desired direction. Getting the price to settle above the trend line, on the contrary, will allow opening long positions with the same conditions. You can also open short positions on the 5-minute timeframe based on sell signals from the MACD indicator. It is desirable that the indicator is above the zero mark. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2021 08:31 AM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD pair moved up and down, and then up again last Friday, March 19. There was a multidirectional movement during the day, although the macroeconomic background was completely empty. However, there were a lot of important events that week, so the markets could not decide on the direction at the end of the week. The trend line on the 30-minute timeframe was only formed in the middle of the working day. And so the price approached this line by the end of the day. Therefore, on Monday novice traders can expect a rebound from this line or a downward reversal of the MACD indicator, which will mean the creation of a sell signal. Also, if the trend line is surpassed and the MACD indicator crosses the zero level, this will mean the creation of a buy signal. Take note that the pair, by and large, remains within the horizontal channel. Trading will still be between 1.1836 and 1.1990. The downward trend line, of course, has a certain weight, but it is very short-term, and even inside the horizontal channel. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair Let's take a look at the 5 minute timeframe. It clearly shows that the MACD indicator formed five signals at once last Friday, which deserved your attention. For the convenience of traders, the vertical lines in the charts indicate the time points when this or that session began. Recall that the strongest movements take place in the European and US sessions, and at night, a flat is most often observed. Thus, trading the pair on a 5-minute timeframe is, of course, better during the day. The MACD turned to the upside and went around 15 points immediately when the European session opened. The target could be 1.1937, from which the price rebounded off the day before. Since there was a rebound from this level, it was necessary to immediately sell the EUR/USD pair while aiming for 1.1912. This level is strong enough as it is taken from higher timeframes. It was possible to take profit near it, which brought around 15 more points. Since this level was quickly surpassed, short positions could have been left open, but in this case the closest target was 1.1836, which was not reached in the end. Therefore, it was possible to leave the short position by the MACD indicator reversal to the upside or by Stop Loss, which we advised you to place at breakeven when passing at least 15 points in the right direction. The MACD turned up first, and even then 4-5 points could have been earned. It was not necessary to open long positions on this signal, since at that moment a downward trend line had already formed on the 30-minute chart. Therefore, from that moment on, we only consider sell signals. Such a signal was generated immediately when the US session opened and it could bring around 10 more points of profit. We no longer open a trade to buy, so the fifth signal is missed. How to trade on Monday: On Monday, we recommend trading based on the downward trend line on the 30-minute timeframe. A rebound from it or a reversal of the MACD indicator below it = formation of a sell signal. The targets are 1.1874 and 1.1836. You can take profit when working off any of these. Stop Loss is set to zero if the price goes down by about 15 points. We do not consider buy signals before price taking on the 30-minute timeframe. If the price settles above the trend line, trade for an increase while aiming for 1.1937 and 1.1990. The Take Profit and Stop Loss strategy is the same as for short positions. The macroeconomic background will be very weak tomorrow, as the news calendar does not contain any important information. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2021 07:06 AM PDT The British pound continues to impress with its unwillingness to adjust. In general, it also continues to amaze. For example, if the European currency in the last 2 weeks shows certain signs of flat, that is, it is in a side channel, but at the same time has the possibility of resuming the trend movement (in the short term), then the pound sterling in recent weeks has gone into a much more pronounced flat. Even on a 24-hour timeframe, it is perfectly visible. And all this again against the background of the need to adjust after at least five months of growth. But the markets continue to stubbornly hold open longs for the pound, not allowing it to start falling. We have already talked about British problems (economic and geopolitical) a million times. Traders still do not respond to them. Based on this, we continue to believe that the pound remains extremely overbought and may crash down at any time. That would be very logical. However, the "speculative" factor and the factor of new trillion-dollar injections into the US economy can again save the pound from falling. Thus, even taking into account a whole list of factors in favor of the fall of the pound/dollar pair, the upward trend may well resume in 2021. As for macroeconomic statistics, they remain "average" in the UK. In the United States, the recovery and improvement in macroeconomic indicators are visible. In Britain, nothing like this is observed. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, last week said that by the end of the first quarter of 2021, British GDP will shrink. Therefore, it hardly makes sense now to compare the American economy, which is growing at a high rate, and the British economy, which is stalling. Last week, by the way, the Bank of England also held a meeting, during which the regulator did not give any signals about a change in monetary policy. Thus, by the new trading week, the pound/dollar pair is in limbo, and the markets do not know what to do now. Next week, no important macroeconomic statistics will be published on Monday. The data will start arriving on Tuesday. In the UK, the unemployment rate for January will be published on this day, which, according to experts, will remain unchanged at 5.1%. However, do not let these figures mislead market participants. In the United States, the unemployment rate is now higher, but at the same time, it is in the Foggy Albion that they are waiting for a surge in unemployment in 2021. The fact is that business in Britain is now supported by government programs. As soon as the support ends (and it is planned to be completed in the fall of 2021), many companies will inevitably begin to reduce staff, as the pandemic and Brexit will not be able to leave a mark on the economy. Also on this day, data on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits and changes in average earnings will be published. On Wednesday, Britain will also release a fairly important report – on inflation. Recall that the Bank of England is also aiming for 2% inflation, but so far can only expect an acceleration to 0.8% in annual terms. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) may reach 1.4% y/y, which is still below the target value. Also on this day, business activity indices for the service and manufacturing sectors will be published. At the same time, not only in the UK but also in the European Union and the United States. According to experts, in Britain, all three indices (including the composite) will be more than 50.0, although last month 2 out of 3 indices were below this mark. Thus, it will be possible to state that the British economy is still slowly reviving in the spring of 2021. In the European Union, the business activity index for the services sector may again be below the level of 50.0, showing no recovery. Not surprising, given that many EU countries are on the verge of introducing a third "lockdown". In the United States, with business activity in all areas, for obvious reasons, everything is fine, but on this day a report on orders for durable goods will also be published, the growth rates of which may significantly decrease compared to the previous period. However, the main thing is that there is growth. On Thursday, the United States will publish another estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020, which is unlikely to surprise anyone, and on Friday - secondary indicators of changes in personal income and spending of Americans, as well as the index of personal consumption expenditures. These reports can only trigger a reaction if the actual values are very different from the forecast values. In Britain, on this day, retail sales for February will be known, which may begin to recover after a disastrous January. In general, we can say the following about macroeconomic statistics: do not expect that every report will be worked out by the markets. As we have already said, there are a lot of factors now, and statistics are still being worked out selectively. So, don't be surprised if most of the reports are ignored by the markets. We believe that now we still need to pay more attention to technical analysis, which most quickly responds to changes and shows the current picture of the situation. In the long term, we would not make forecasts for the pound, as the pair still cannot even adjust normally. This means that the market laws are not yet being implemented and the pair can be thrown in any direction. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2021 07:06 AM PDT A week ago, we said that now the currency market is in complete turmoil. And over the past week, it has only gotten worse. There are a lot of factors that can hypothetically affect the mood of traders and the movement of the euro/dollar pair. And it seems that the markets themselves do not know what to do now. It should be said right away that everything is fine in the long term: the pair continues to adjust either against the last two-month round of growth or against the entire upward trend that began a year ago. But when switching to lower timeframes, it becomes clear that there is no trend now. The fundamental background is still much more difficult now. From the yield on US treasuries to the new economic aid package from Joe Biden, any factor can influence the pair's movement. We will try to analyze all these factors in this article and draw a conclusion. Let's start with a topic that began to torment traders and investors relatively recently. Growth in the yield of American treasuries. Recently, more and more experts have begun to conclude that the US currency is not strengthened by the growth of the yield of 10-year government bonds. From our point of view, this factor affects the overall movement of the pair by no more than 10%. A good example was last week when treasuries continued to grow and made up 1.716% of the yield on Friday, however, the euro/dollar pair is flat, that is, the dollar did not show stable growth. Thus, locally, within one day, traders can react to this indicator, however, it is unlikely that it is a fundamental background. Next, the ECB and Fed meetings. With the meeting of the European Central Bank, everything is simple, because it did not provide any information to the markets at all. Christine Lagarde's latest comments were about negative GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2021. As for the Fed, whose decisions are guided by many other central banks in the world, it also took an exclusively wait-and-see attitude. Simply put, Jerome Powell has not commented on the growth of treasury yields. He is not going to tighten monetary policy in the next three years and is not going (at least in the near future) to wind down the quantitative easing program ($120 billion per month). The only thing that can be noted following the results of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve is that the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2021 were raised. On the one hand, this is a positive factor. On the other hand, these are just forecasts. Recall that the same forecast for inflation has long been in the vision of the Fed is above 2%, but the inflation itself is below 2% for a couple of years. In general, we did not see anything overly optimistic in the statements of the Fed and the ECB. No changes. "Coronavirus". It can be noted that the European Union continues to beat anti-records in terms of vaccination rates, far behind other, no less developed and advanced countries. However, it should be noted that the factor of the third "wave" is also important, however, the markets do not react to it with powerful sales of the European currency. The panic caused by the "coronavirus" in March last year led first to a strong rise in the dollar, and then to an equally powerful fall. But then no one knew how the epidemic would turn out and how it would end. Now, more or less everything is known about the virus, and vaccination at least continues around the world. Thus, this factor also seems to us not too important at this time. Macroeconomic statistics. The latest reports from overseas have pleased investors. The economy is recovering strongly, unemployment is falling, Nonfarm Payrolls are rising, and inflation is also showing signs of accelerating. Thus, it strongly contrasts with the statistics from Europe, where inflation is stuck around 1%, GDP will shrink both in the fourth quarter of 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021, and unemployment is higher than in the United States. Moreover, the States sacrifice indicators such as the national debt to bring their economy to life as quickly as possible. But the European Union is not ready to pour the same huge amount of money into the economy, so in any case, the American economy will recover much faster than the European one. And this is a fat plus in the piggy bank of the US currency since this can mean a flow of capital to America. However, there are also fat cons for the dollar. More precisely, one fat minus. We are talking, of course, about Joe Biden's "plan to save the economy", and simply put, about two trillion dollars that will begin to flow into the economy in the near future. We have already written about this factor many times, and nothing new can be said here. According to economic laws, if the money supply is growing, but the number of goods and services produced is not - this provokes inflation. If there are more dollars, but the euro currency is not, this provokes a fall in the dollar. Thus, in the long term, we continue to expect a resumption of the upward trend. Unfortunately, this factor is contradicted, for example, by the COT reports, which show that in recent weeks, the major players have weakened their "bullish" mood. But this is a double-edged sword. The COT report on the euro does not take into account the increase in the money supply in the United States, so major players may reduce demand for the euro, but due to the growth of the money supply in the United States, the pair's exchange rate may remain stable. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour chart perfectly shows the flat in which the quotes are currently located. Maybe this is not the clearest flat, but the pair has spent the last few weeks without a pronounced trend movement. The key point on the Ichimoku system is the rebound from the upper line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B cloud, which is a powerful resistance. Thus, the bears may try to continue the technical correction against the entire upward trend, which began a year ago. In this case, the previous local minimum, which is now located around 1.1836, should be overcome. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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