Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on March 15. Detailed analysis of previous recommendations and the pair's movement
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on March 15? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on March 15. Analysis of Friday trades. Getting ready for
- Bitcoin mining has an extremely negative impact on the planet's climate and the environment. Bill Gates again criticizes
- Bitcoin has crossed the mark of $ 61,000 per coin. Is it Elon Musk's fault again?
- GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. Two central bank meetings. The pound is still guided by the "speculative" factor
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. Problems with vaccination in the European Union, rising treasury yields, Fed problems,
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 07:06 PM PDT GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD pair was trading rather ambiguously on Friday, March 12. On the one hand, a sufficient number of signals were generated that could and should have been processed. On the other hand, several false signals were also generated, which were important to weed out. On the third hand, important reports were published, but they turned out to be contradictory and were ultimately ignored. But first things first. During the evening, the first signal was formed - to sell - in the form of a rebound from the 1.3998 level, from which the pair is very fond of rebounding recently. Quotes of the pound/dollar pair immediately dropped to the first target level of 1.3972, which could bring around 20 points of profits. However, this signal was generated at night, so it could be missed. The second sell signal (also marked with a rectangle) was formed a couple of hours before the opening of the European trading session - surpassing the support level of 1.3972. This signal also turned out to be strong and correct, afterwards the price fell by around 70 points, since the nearest target was the Kijun-sen line, which was reached. Thus, traders could also make around 70 points of profit on this signal. Furthermore, the first rebound from the critical line followed, and then its breakthrough, each of these signals could also be worked out, but both turned out to be false. On the first one it was possible to get a loss of about 20 points, on the second - without a loss, since the price went down 20 points, so the Stop Loss had to be set at breakeven. Furthermore, the price crossed the critical line several times, but all these signals after two false ones were no longer worth considering, since it became clear that the logical movements were over. Subsequently, buyers still tried to return to 1.3972, but stopped somewhere halfway, as the trading ended. As a result, traders following our recommendations could earn 50 points on Friday. GBP/USD 1H The pair fell below the upward trend line on the hourly timeframe on Friday, as well as the trend line, and before that it failed to overcome the extremum level of 1.3998. Thus, there is neither an upward trend nor a downward trend right now. The situation is confusing and looks more like a flat. However, the pound has long ceased to amaze with its movements that are not entirely logical. One has to remember that the pound has been growing in general for 5-6 months now, but it is very difficult to find reasons for this. No major events scheduled for Monday in Britain and the United States, but meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are scheduled for this week. So there should be some important and interesting information for the pound/dollar pair this week. Trading might be calm on Monday, and traders can only pay attention to the 10-year Treasury yield in the United States. If this indicator continues to grow, then the dollar may receive market support. In general, we continue to recommend important levels and lines, when rebounding from them, surpassing them. As before, you should set the Stop Loss level when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. The nearest level/line is always used as targets. COT report The GBP/USD pair fell by 100 points during the last reporting week (March 2-8). Despite the fact that the pound has been falling in the past two weeks, hardly anyone can now conclude that the upward trend is over. In principle, everything is clearly visible in the chart above. Moreover, just in the last 5-6 weeks, professional traders have been actively buying the pound. This is evidenced by the green line of the first indicator, which reflects the change in the net position of the group of non-commercial traders. At the same time, the Commercial group is increasing sales contracts. And this behavior of the two main groups of traders is the main sign of a strong trend. Thus, we see the strongest uncorrelation of the two main pairs. If the euro has been correcting for two and a half months, the pound has not. If the COT reports on the euro indicate a weakening of the bullish sentiment, then the COT reports on the pound - they say the opposite. Thus, the main thing now is not to try to assume that the pound and the euro will move in the same way, as is often the case. Unfortunately, there are no unambiguous factors as to why the euro and the pound are moving differently now. After all, if they do not correlate, this means that there are now global factors that have a strong impact on one or another currency in the eurozone or the UK. One negative is now coming from the UK, but the pound is growing much stronger than the euro. Could there be a problem in the eurozone? But we don't really receive much disappointing news from over there. Well, is it worth saying that the euro and the pound did not react in the same way to the growth factor in the yield of US Treasuries? Thus, in general, we believe that the COT reports for the pound unambiguously speak in favor of continuing the upward movement. Explanations for illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 02:40 PM PDT Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
At the end of this week, the GBP/USD pair crossed the downward trend line and this could be regarded as a buy signal. Of course, the targets for the upward movement were well below the 1.3999 level, from which the price rebounded three times earlier, but look at how this level was reached! In any case, novice traders could earn a few dozen points on this signal. Last Friday, the pair perfectly reached and rebounded off the 1.3999 level, which provoked a fall by 140 points. From our point of view, this drop was purely technical, in no way caused by an increase in the yield of US government bonds, as many think. The rebound from the 40th level was perfect and it could even be worked out, although this signal was against the trend, since an upward trend was formed after surpassing the trend line. However, there are exceptions to any rule. Either way, important levels, which are marked with horizontal red lines, often lead to important rebounds or breakouts. These signals can also be viewed. What do we have at the moment? The trend formally remains rising, however, in fact, the movement of the last two weeks looks more like a flat. A buy signal was also formed (an upward reversal of the MACD indicator) last Friday, however, we did not recommend opening any positions at the end of the trading week. Long positions are more preferable on Monday, and we even have a sell signal at the moment. But it would be better to wait at least until morning and analyze the state of affairs again. Important reports on GDP and industrial production were released in the UK on Friday. On the whole, these reports could be interpreted in different ways, since the GDP indicator for January turned out to be negative, but at the same time better than forecasted, while the industrial production indicator was negative and at the same time worse than forecasted. In any case, the pound started to fall at night and did so until the US session. Therefore, the UK reports that were released in the morning had no effect on the pair's movement. The UK and US macroeconomic calendars are completely empty on Monday. So it looks like the only thing traders might be looking at is the US 10-year Treasury yield. Technical factors will come first in regards to significance: important levels. Possible scenarios on March 15: 1) Long positions are now valid since the downward trend has been canceled. However, in order to open long positions, either a clear rebound from the 1.3858 level, or being able to surpass the 1.3999 level, or a new buy signal from MACD is required. Theoretically, the upward movement can continue as soon as trades are opened, but there is often a flat at night, so we recommend waiting until the morning before making decisions. 2) Short positions are irrelevant at this time, since the trend line is no longer relevant, and the upward trend has not been canceled. Although in case the price clearly settles below 1.3858, then we would recommend opening short positions with a target located 40-50 points below. However, trading on Monday can be extremely sluggish, which should be considered. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 11:16 AM PDT EUR/USD hourly chart On March 12, EUR/USD reversed to the downside during night time and was extending its fall throughout the day. For some time, the downward movement seemed quite natural, while the uptrend remained in place due to the existing trendline. The bearish trend was so strong that the price consolidated below the trendline instead of testing it, and, therefore, a sell signal was formed. However, this was a false sell signal or, in other words, a weak one. In our articles, we always mention that if the price has already passed a long distance by the moment the signal is formed, then the remaining momentum can be extremely weak. Therefore, we do not recommend opening new positions in these cases. This is what happened on Friday. Immediately after the price had broken through the trendline, the downward movement stopped and was followed by an upward pullback. A little later, a new ascending trendline could have been formed at a new local low, but it would be of no use to novice traders. Moreover, it is not a good idea to open new positions at the end of the trading session on Friday. Thus, on March 12, beginners could stay out of the market for the whole day. All the economic reports issued on Friday were of minor importance. The EU released the report on industrial production, while in the US, the data on Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan was published. Industrial production in the EU turned out to be much better than expected. However, this data did not support the euro in any way. The same is true for the Consumer Sentiment Index which exceeded market's expectations but did not help the US dollar to rise. Once again, the macroeconomic statistics were downplayed by market participants. At the same time, investors reacted to the growing yields of the US government bonds. We are very skeptical about this factor, but many experts believe that it has been driving the US currency in recent weeks. On Monday, March 15, no important events and publications are expected. Therefore, neither the fundamental background nor the macroeconomic data will influence the market on Monday. Still, beginners need to keep in mind the factor of growing US Treasury yields. Analysts believe that if 10-year Treasury yields continue to rise, the US dollar may again strengthen. So, it is better to monitor this trend on Monday. Possible scenarios for March 15: 1) Long positions remain relevant, but the new ascending trendline is weaker than the previous one. Thus, tomorrow novice traders should watch for new buy signals. The signals can be formed when the price rebounds from a new ascending trendline, or when the MACD indicator turns up after reaching a zero level. The targets can be set at the resistance area of 1.1970-1.1980. 2) Trading downwards is not relevant at the moment. However, if the pair settles below the new ascending trendline, you can consider opening short positions with the targets located 30-40 pips below the entry point. When a clear signal is formed and a profit of 15-20 pips is accumulated, we recommend setting Stop Loss at the breakeven point. On the chart Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 05:53 AM PDT
Bill Gates has long been a critic of bitcoin. According to the former head of Microsoft, bitcoin is too volatile and too unstable, and can also lead to significant losses. Also, according to the billionaire, "If you do not have as much money as Musk, then you should not deal with bitcoin". However, the problem for the whole world is not only that bitcoin is excessively volatile or used in illegal and criminal operations. The problem is that one transaction on the bitcoin network consumes more electricity than any other transaction. Electricity doesn't come from anywhere. Thus, the huge consumption of electricity by miners is a huge emission of CO2 into the atmosphere. Of course, if we are talking about the so-called "green energy", then there are no questions. But not all power plants in the world use renewable sources of electricity. But bitcoin is already being mined everywhere. Thus, according to research, only 39% of bitcoins were mined with the help of "green energy", that is, without harm to the environment. Scientists have already calculated several times that the amount of carbon dioxide that is released into the atmosphere during the production and transfer of bitcoins is equivalent to the whole of Argentina. That is the whole country. It was also estimated that one bitcoin transaction is equal to the number of emissions of 750 thousand transactions in the Visa payment system. Thus, it is not only Bill Gates who opposes bitcoin. Many scientists also regularly draw attention to the fact that the "cue ball" is extremely harmful to the environment. "If this is green energy, then mining the first cryptocurrency may be acceptable," Gates said. At the same time, Microstrategy invested another $ 15 million in bitcoin. Thus, the total amount of BTC that the company now owns is 91,236 coins. Earlier, the company raised more than a billion dollars by issuing and placing securities among investors to invest in bitcoin. The total investment in BTC is already more than $ 2 billion. The company's shares have almost halved since February 9, 2021, but have recently shown a tendency to recover. Bitcoin itself has already grown to $ 61,000 per coin and at the moment, in any case, has brought Microstrategy and Tesla profit. The main thing is that now there will not be a collapse in quotes, as in 2017-2018. However, most experts are already inclined to believe that such a strong collapse will not happen, since interest among institutional traders in bitcoin is growing, and institutional investors are much more stable and calm owners of bitcoin than "hamsters" who try to sell the asset as soon as there is a minimal drop in quotes. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin has crossed the mark of $ 61,000 per coin. Is it Elon Musk's fault again? Posted: 14 Mar 2021 01:54 AM PST
Bitcoin continued its upward movement over the weekend. During yesterday, a fairly strong upward movement followed, which led to an update of the previous local and absolute maximum in the area of $ 58,258. Now the new maximum of the "cue ball" is equal to $ 61,632. And at the moment, there are no signs of the beginning of a new round of correction. Thus, in the near future, bitcoin may grow to $ 70,000 per coin. Such a forecast can be made based on the previous growth cycles after each correction. In our previous articles, we have already said that the demand for bitcoin among institutional investors is growing. More and more large investors and miners are not in a hurry to part with BTC, as it would have been a few years ago. At the moment, most of the bitcoins are not in the hands of "hamsters" who are in a hurry to get rid of the cryptocurrency and make a profit, but in the hands of institutions, for whom investing in bitcoin is not the last means and who can afford to keep bitcoin in their portfolios for a very long time. Thus, based on this factor alone, we can conclude that bitcoin will continue to grow in price. Moreover, there are no more coins, their upper limit is limited to 21 million and at the moment there are about 2 million coins left unmaintained. Thus, despite the skepticism of many billionaires and experts of the cryptocurrency market, at the moment the most obvious conclusion is that bitcoin will continue to grow. Meanwhile, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, again got in touch and commented on bitcoin. This time, Musk noted that BTC is an anagram to TBC – The Boring Company, which is a subsidiary of SpaceX. "What a coincidence," Elon Musk said. What exactly this message means is unknown, but the notes of sarcasm are traced in it. At the same time, it became known that Elon Musk was sued by one of the Tesla investors, who is sure that he exposes the company to losses of billions of dollars with his tweets and comments. It also became known that Musk's company is engaged in BTC mining, which has never been mentioned anywhere before. Thus, the latest growth of bitcoin could again be associated with the comments of the odious billionaire.
As for the technical picture, the important support area of $ 43,000 - $ 44,000 stood, however, there was only one test of this area. So now everything looks very clear and understandable. Traders slightly adjusted the "digital gold", after which the upward movement resumed. The first resistance level of $ 58,226 has been overcome, so now the road is open to the psychological mark of $ 70,000 and the resistance level of $ 71,233. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 12:56 AM PST The British pound continues to impress with its unwillingness to adjust. The currency, which had been falling for most of the four years leading up to the pandemic, has now been rising for almost a year without stopping. Even in recent times, when the US currency has been growing both for technical reasons and based on some fundamental factors, the pound has not fallen in price in the long term. Even if we take into account not the entire upward trend, but only its last round, the pound/dollar pair managed to adjust by an "unrealistic" 23.6%. That is, by and large, this is not even a correction, but a banal pullback, which speaks in favor of maintaining a bullish mood among traders. Moreover, the pair has surged up during this week, which means that this pullback may already be completed. The pair's quotes returned to the area above the critical line. Thus, if everything is quite ambiguous for the euro currency, then the pound - even more so. The same factor of pouring huge amounts of money into the American economy can again cause a serious fall in the dollar. Then the pound will rise in price even more and will reach the levels of "until 2016". It turns out that for the British currency, in this case, Brexit will pass as if without consequences. This is the reality. Market participants continue to stubbornly ignore the fundamental background from the UK and this is a very remarkable moment for both major currency pairs. If the fundamental background is ignored, then traders are focused on something else at the moment. And this "something else" could be Joe Biden's "economic rescue plan" or a new $ 2 trillion that will be poured into the US economy. After all, we have previously conducted a corresponding analysis and concluded that the global fall in the dollar over the past year was caused by strong growth in the money supply in the US, much higher than in the EU or the UK. Thus, we believe that the upward movement will resume for the two main pairs in the near future. However, do not forget about the macroeconomic background, especially since this week there will be events that are worth paying attention to. Of course, the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the summing up of its results, scheduled for Wednesday, March 17, stands out from this list. From our point of view, all the key parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged, however, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell can share with the markets information about the upcoming changes in monetary policy, in particular in the program of asset repurchase from the open market. Markets will also look forward to Powell's views on rising treasury yields and future US inflation, as well as ways to contain it. All in all, Powell's comments this time around could be really important and therefore trigger a market reaction. Also in the US on Tuesday, reports on retail sales and industrial production will be published. We believe that this data will be followed by a very weak reaction of traders, which can only be seen on the intraday. It will not affect the overall trend and the mood of traders. Well, in addition to the Fed meeting, there will also be a meeting of the Bank of England, for which a huge number of questions have also accumulated. First, the Bank of England has been beating around the bush on the issue of introducing negative rates for more than six months. All this time, the members of the monetary committee are sending unequivocal signals that the bank can take such a step, but at the same time, despite all the economic problems in the country, negative rates can not be introduced in any way. Thus, traders will again wait for comments from BA representatives on this issue. Secondly, the yield of British treasury bonds is also growing and also makes the representatives of the regulator nervous. Accordingly, the markets will wait for a comment on this issue. In general, the key events of the week will be the meetings of the two banks. However, do not forget that in the case of the pound sterling, the "speculative" factor also plays an important role. Simply put, the British currency has enjoyed disproportionately high demand in the last 5-6 months, which cannot be explained even by the strong growth of the money supply in the United States. Thus, this is an additional factor that plays in favor of the British pound, which has recently been very similar to bitcoin. The same strong growth, the same minimal corrections. Thus, the new week will depend a lot on the results of the central bank meetings, but in general, the markets will again gravitate to buying the British currency. We remind you that any fundamental hypothesis requires technical confirmation, and you should not make trading decisions without it. The pound/dollar pair on the 4-hour timeframe reached the upper line of the Ichimoku cloud, but could not overcome it on the first attempt and fell to the Kijun-sen line. Thus, on both higher time frames, the price is now located slightly above the critical line. Consequently, the upward prospects remain ahead of the pound/dollar pair. If the two central banks "help" the bulls this week, the upward movement will resume and the pair will once again seek to update its 2.5-year highs. In the 4-hour timeframe, it first needs to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud. Fixing the price below the critical line on any timeframe for some time will cancel the scenario with a new round of upward movement. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Mar 2021 12:07 AM PST In short, the currency market is currently in a state of complete turmoil. You can't tell by just looking at any time frame of the euro/dollar pair. However, there are a huge number of factors that can or do affect the pair and the mood of traders. Starting with the most banal technical, which we consider the most important in the current conditions. Ending with a whole bunch of fundamental ones. Let's start with the technical one. Even though we expected to see the start of a new upward trend after the price worked out and bounced back from the 50.0% Fibonacci level on the 24-hour timeframe, the current movement in global terms may still be a normal correction. Recall that 50% of the Fibonacci is only half of the last two-month round of the upward movement. Before that, the euro/dollar pair grew for 10 months, during which it gained about 1,700 points. Thus, the current drop in quotes to the level of 61.8% is not just a strong correction against the entire upward trend that began in March last year. Based on this, we still believe that the upward movement can resume at any time. If we consider the entire trend over the past year, at the moment, the bears managed to correct the pair by more than 23.6%, which is very small. Thus, in the long term, the conclusion is extremely simple: the upward trend may be resumed, however, the correction may continue for some time. But when the correction will be completed, the fundamental factors that are currently very confusing should tell us. Let's start with the fact that now, there are a huge number of factors that can affect the mood of traders. And since there are a lot of traders in the market and not all of them are chasing a profit based on the exchange rate difference, we get a kind of mixed reactions and preferences of completely different groups of traders who react to different factors. Simply put, it is now impossible to make an unambiguous conclusion based on what the pair is moving. Recall that only the last two events in the United States could have a strong impact on the pair. We are talking about Joe Biden's signing of a bill to stimulate the economy, according to which every American will receive $ 1,400, which will be "dropped from a helicopter". And this is another $ 2 trillion that will be injected into the American economy. From our point of view, as soon as this money begins to flow into the economy, the US currency will resume its decline. Perhaps, it has already resumed, since three of the five days of this week ended with an increase. Further, the markets were closely watching the yield of treasuries in the US. We believe that this factor is weak, however, many analysts and experts believe that it has a direct impact on the dollar in recent weeks. Well, maybe that's true. Also, there have been rumors in the United States for several weeks about a sharp jump in inflation in 2021, which will be triggered by the same trillions of dollars that have already been poured into the economy. After all, according to the simplest laws of economics, if there is more money, and the number of goods and services produced does not change, this leads to an increase in prices, which is what the Fed wants to achieve. However, investors fear that inflation will rise much stronger than the 2% that is the Fed's target. And the Fed does not intend to raise the key rate until the economy fully recovers from the crisis. Thus, it will be very difficult to contain inflation if it goes up. Moreover, Jerome Powell has previously said that periods of low inflation will be offset by periods of high inflation. Therefore, there is reason to assume that no one will restrain high inflation in the first months of its existence at all. Naturally, investors are afraid of this and sell off bundles of US treasury bonds, the nominal yield on which is much lower than expected in the long term inflation. This means that the real yield is negative. Therefore, the profitability of these same treasuries is growing. And the increase in profitability is an increase in future spending from the US budget, which is already in deficit. I don't even want to remember about the national debt. We have already said that in the United States, the public debt is treated much more calmly than in Europe. However, this does not mean that money can now be borrowed in any amount and at any interest. So rising bond yields are a headache for the Fed. Consequently, as we said above, the market is now in a nervous state, and it is completely unclear who is reacting to what factors. It can also be noted that there are problems with vaccination in the European Union at this time. Problems arose from the very beginning, as the European Union did not make the largest orders for the vaccine, then there were problems with supplies. In general, now the EU countries are very far behind the countries where vaccination is carried out at a high rate. For example, the United Kingdom or Israel. Naturally, investors do not like this, since the pace of economic recovery in the European Union may slow down again. From all of the above, it follows that now you need to be extremely careful with opening any positions and pay increased attention to the "technique" since it responds most quickly to changes in the market. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour chart shows that a new upward trend has formed, but at the moment the price has just entered the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, at the moment it is too early to talk about the beginning of a full-fledged upward trend, even on a 4-hour timeframe. Nevertheless, on Friday there was a rebound from the critical line, which increases the probability of continued growth of the pair. The first goal is the Senkou Span B line. The further movement of the pair will depend on overcoming or not overcoming this line. We believe that there may be another round of downward correction in the global plan. However, much will also depend on how soon the money from the "plan to save America" begins to flow into the economy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: 
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