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- What Tesla Stock Investors Can Learn From Yahoo Joining The S&P 500
- BP: Still British, Still Petroleum, Despite Its Attempt At Reinvention
- 100% Tradable Bonus | Forex Trading Training in Tamil
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- New Relief Package Provides New PPP Funding for Small Businesses
- Phân tích và đánh giá ngoại hối: 21.12.2020
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- How to Get Your Second Stimulus Payment Direct Deposited to Your Bank Account
- Surging Momentum vs. High Valuations
| What Tesla Stock Investors Can Learn From Yahoo Joining The S&P 500 Posted: 21 Dec 2020 02:35 AM PST Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to become the largest company ever added to the S&P 500 index, as of Dec. 21. Tesla stock investors have rejoiced over the news that the stock will finally be joining the S&P. The stock has rallied and bulls see the addition as a validation of their investment. It will also reportedly drive more than $80 billion in passive fund buying in the stock.  Source: Vitaliy Karimov / Shutterstock.com Given Tesla's size and growth, it's difficult to find a similar situation in the past for comparison. But after digging into the numbers, I believe Tesla today looks a lot like Yahoo! did back in December 1999. Tesla Stock Vs. YahooOn Nov. 30 1999, Standard & Poors announced Yahoo would be added to the S&P 500. Let's start our analysis a couple of years earlier. Yahoo went public in April 1996. It finished its first day of trading with a market cap of $848 million. On Nov. 30, 1998, exactly one year before it was added to the S&P 500, Yahoo shares closed at $24. On Dec. 1, 1999, the day after the S&P 500 announcement was made, Yahoo shares closed at $57.22. After factoring in a two-to-one stock split on Feb. 8, 1999, that price adjusts to $114.44. In other words, Yahoo shares rallied by 376% in the year leading up to the announcement. Yahoo actually ended up joining the S&P 500 on Dec. 9, 1999. That day, the stock closed at $85. So in the nine days leading up to the addition, Yahoo rallied 48.5%. "It's essentially a huge gift from the index to current shareholders," said Arthur Newman, back then an analyst for Schroder & Co. Tesla's numbers don't match up perfectly by any means, but they are very similar. Tesla stock is up 716% in the past year and has rallied 52.6% since S&P announced its addition in November. In other words, Tesla's gains prior to the addition were a bit more extreme than Yahoo's. 1999 Yahoo Bull CaseI can already hear the Tesla investors saying "Tesla is no Yahoo." Yahoo is an archaic relic that was left behind by companies like Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). That conclusion is perfectly clear… in hindsight. But here's a look at what Yahoo was in 1999. In 1998, Yahoo was the single most-popular homepage on the internet. It was also by far the most popular search engine in the world. In 1999, Yahoo reported 190% year-over-year revenue growth. Yahoo's market cap skyrocketed from under $10 billion in mid-1998 to a peak of more than $110 billion in 2000. After another two-for-one split on Feb. 14, 2000, Yahoo shares traded at a split-adjusted $35.64 on Dec. 10, 2001. The stock dropped 68.8% in the first two years following its addition to the S&P 500. In 2002, Yahoo reported impressive 33% revenue growth. However, the bubble stock never returned to its glory days. Yahoo's market cap never even touched $60 billion ever again. In the past few weeks, I've been contemplating whether or not Tesla's addition to the S&P 500 will ultimately mark the top for Tesla stock. I believe there's a very good chance it could. How To Play ItThere's an argument to be made that Yahoo was in a better position in 1999 than Tesla is in today. Both companies have impressive revenue growth, but Tesla's 39.1% growth last quarter is nothing compared to Yahoo's 190% growth in 1999. Yahoo shares rallied 376% in the year leading up to its S&P 500 news. Tesla shares may be even more overheated, up 716%. Both companies are/were market leaders in massive long-term growth markets. For Yahoo, it was internet search. For Tesla, it is electric vehicles. However, Tesla is attempting to disrupt a long list of legacy automakers who dwarf Tesla in cash flow and resources. Yahoo was essentially entering a market that was wide open, making its path to success much easier. Yahoo is not unique. A recent study of 31 years of data found stocks that join the S&P 500 as one of its 100 largest constituents average a 7% decline in the following year. Tesla is on track to be the sixth-largest S&P 500 component. It remains to be seen whether or not the S&P 500 addition is the ultimate sell-the-news event for Tesla. Either way, the stock is extremely overvalued compared to both auto peers and high-growth tech peers. I certainly wouldn't short Tesla stock heading into the S&P 500 addition. But buying Tesla at bubble prices is one of the most dangerous investments you can make. On the date of publication, Wayne Duggan held a long position in GOOGL. Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. He is the author of the book "Beating Wall Street With Common Sense," which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market.  | |
| BP: Still British, Still Petroleum, Despite Its Attempt At Reinvention Posted: 21 Dec 2020 02:33 AM PST BP (NYSE:BP) wants to reinvent itself as a renewable energy company. But it's still valued as an oil and gas outfit. That means it's not highly valued at all.  Source: FotograFFF / Shutterstock.com BP stock fell with the pandemic and never got back up. It traded below the March pandemic low of $16 as recently as late October. Shares closed on Dec. 18 at $21.74, a market cap of $74.7 billion. In 2019 BP had revenues of about $294 billion. That should drop by about one-third this year but the stock is still worth just one-third its revenue. The fall in 2020 has made BP stock a moderate buy recently, with analysts at Tipranks predicting a return to $30 a share. But that depends on the business BP doesn't want to be in anymore. BP Stock as It Pivots From OilInstead, admitting that peak global oil demand has passed, BP has bought a controlling stake in Finite Carbon, a company that pays landowners not to cut trees. BP has signed a wind power agreement that will supply electricity to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) cloud data centers. It owns half of Lightsource, a solar power developer. It's pumping carbon dioxide back under the North Sea to reduce greenhouse gases. BP announced its low carbon pivot at its August annual meeting. This helped distract analysts from its dividend cut and a $16.8 billion quarterly loss. CEO Bernard Looney said the company will now invest $5 billion a year in renewables. Its current capital budget is $12 billion. He said the company will not explore for oil in any new countries, that it will cut production by 40% over 10 years and reduce refining by a third. Since then, BP has sold its Alaska oil pipelines. It has bought half of Equinor's (NYSE:EQNR) interest in two large wind projects off New York and New England. It plans to invest in both "blue hydrogen," derived from natural gas, and in "green hydrogen," derived from electricity created by solar farms and wind turbines. Yet, Still an Oil PlayDespite these big ambitions, BP is still an oil and gas company. It eked out a small profit in the September quarter, announcing a dividend of 5.25 cents a share. That's a tiny fraction of the 63 cents a share it paid in February. Still, the stock price rose because oil demand and prices were increasing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary U.S. grade, has climbed to $48 a barrel from $42. BP stock is up 42% since late October, when the earnings came out. BP operates the world's third-largest oil field, in Iraq, plus fields in Oman and the United Arab Emirates. It promised not to explore in any new countries, but it's still doing it in places where it has done it before. It just finished a pipeline from Azerbaijan that will add to Europe's glut of natural gas supply. Critics say that despite BP's grand talk, its renewable pivot is no more ambitious than incoming President Joe Biden's own energy plan. In short, it's not out of step. The BP Bottom LineBP had over $70 billion in long-term debt at the end of September. It's selling its London headquarters building to raise cash and it's no longer a stock you can buy for income. That means investors must depend on capital gains for growth. At least in the near term, those gains will be completely dependent on the price of oil and gas. BP's investment in renewables comes on top of investments it must make to keep oil and gas flowing. Despite the company's rhetoric and plans, it will remain dependent for profits on those oil investments. Here's an analogy I've used before: BP is like International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), milking profits from one business, promising to enter another. However, savvy investors will value it for what it is, not what it's promising to become. At the time of publication, Dana Blankenhorn had a long position in AMZN. Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. His latest book is Technology's Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore's Law, essays on technology available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn.
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| New Relief Package Provides New PPP Funding for Small Businesses Posted: 21 Dec 2020 12:19 AM PST  After months of partisan wrangling, on December 20, 2020, Congressional negotiators finally agreed on a new $900 billion Covid relief package, which includes an additional $284 billion for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) for small businesses, created under the original Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (or CARES Act) in March. This new package provides additional funding for those businesses that did not receive PPP money in the first round, especially minority- and women-owned businesses. In addition, it allows businesses a second chance at PPP money if they can show significant losses in 2020 over their 2019 revenue. The exact percentages are yet to be determined. The bill also addressed what was probably the biggest outstanding issue with PPP: the deductibility of expenses paid for with the forgivable loan. The Trump Administration position to date, largely led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, was that businesses could not deduct the expenses paid for with PPP funds as they ordinarily would because the loan is forgivable and not taxable income. The Administration's view was taking the tax deductions would be "double dipping" on top of the grant. The business community was up in arms about this adverse tax consequence, which is now corrected. How small businesses will benefit from new relief packageIn addition to the tax fix, the new bill provides the following aid to small businesses:
PPP loan forgivenessThe PPP program closed on August 8, 2020, after approximately 5.2 million businesses applied for and received the loans. If businesses use the funds according to the regulations, which include spending at least 60% on payroll to keep people employed and the additional funds on rent, utilities, mortgage payments, and interest on existing debt, they can apply for forgiveness and have the loan convert into a grant that does not need to be repaid. Notably, due to confusion and concern around the program, approximately $130 billion dollars in funds were left unused at the August closing. Most businesses that did receive PPP loans have begun to apply for forgiveness. The process includes applying through the lender who provided the loan and supplying documentation that the funds were used appropriately. For most businesses that means documenting payroll through reports most payroll companies provide expressly for this purpose and receipts for expenses. The lenders have 60 days to review and approve the application before submitting it to the SBA for its review. The SBA has 90 days to approve the application or request more information from the borrower. Other Articles From AllBusiness.com: On October 8, 2020, the SBA along with the Treasury Department issued new guidance allowing borrowers with PPP loans of $50,000 or less to self-certify they used the money appropriately and receive complete forgiveness. While this latest Interim Final Rule addressing the PPP loans still required borrowers to provide documentation, such as a payroll provider report, it offers a new, simplified form and a "check the box" process for forgiveness. Borrowers can use new SBA Form 3508EZ for their application or wait for their lender to update their online application portals. The SBA justified this easing of requirements as the majority of PPP loans were less than $50,000. According to the SBA, there are 3.57 million outstanding PPP loans of $50,000 or less out of the 5.2 million issued, totaling approximately $62 billion of the $525 billion in PPP loans. This exemption was long sought by lenders and the business community, albeit at a higher level. Initially, these interested parties sought "check the box" forgiveness at $1 million or in the $250,000 to $500,000 range. Those numbers proved too ambitious and the SBA settled on the $50,000 level. Evaluating "economic uncertainty"Businesses that received loans in excess of $2 million are not so lucky. The SBA all along has stated that these borrowers will be subject to an audit. But, on October 26, 2020, the SBA issued a draft Form 3509 requiring borrowers to document their economic uncertainty at the time they applied for the PPP loans. On the initial applications, all borrowers had to attest that "the current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the Applicant." Ordinarily, with SBA loan applications borrowers must show they do not have sufficient liquidity or credit elsewhere, and thus the loan is necessary. SBA did not require that for PPP and now it appears certain borrowers will need to document their need retroactively, or perhaps be denied forgiveness and suffer legal consequences. The new form would require disclosures such as gross revenue, cash on hand, dividends and distributions, outstanding debt, and compensation of highly paid owners and employees. Despite the fact that for many businesses providing the government with this information is less than desirable, it also begs the question as to how the SBA will evaluate "economic uncertainty" at the start of the Covid pandemic. While some businesses pivoted, survived, or even thrived, they could not have predicted the economic impact of Covid in March of 2020. Now heading into seemingly another period of lock downs and restrictions, along with the passage of this new relief package, the SBA will be hard pressed to find businesses undeserving of PPP loans and subsequent forgiveness. The Associated General Contractors of America filed a lawsuit against the SBA and the Office of Management and Budget on December 8, 2020, arguing that these new forms and disclosures are both procedurally wrong and a violation of due process. The procedure argument is based on the fact that the SBA did not publish the new forms with time for comment. The due process argument, which likely has more merit, is based on the fact that businesses should not be held accountable for successfully weathering the Covid storm after they self-certified the need for PPP money. Many interested parties will be monitoring this litigation closely. While the new relief package is surely welcomed by small businesses and is much needed, it remains to be seen if the money will go to the small businesses that truly need it to survive or the same well-equipped, larger businesses will lap up the funds. And, as has occurred all along, we can expect new and evolving regulations, likely in the very near future. RELATED: SBA Easing Forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program Loans of $50,000 or Less  | |
| Phân tích và đánh giá ngoại hối: 21.12.2020 Posted: 20 Dec 2020 09:31 PM PST Relevance up to 09:00 2020-12-22 UTC+7 EUR/USD The week started negatively for the financial markets. Over the weekend, negotiations between the EU and the UK on Brexit failed, although the parties say that there is still a hundred things that can be done, the governments of many countries of the world are afraid of the new British strain of coronavirus and are closing borders, the US government is in danger of falling into a financial lockdown, but it (the government) managed to adopt a plan for two days of funding before approving the budget for next year.  The EUR/USD daily chart shows that a divergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator. The price is bracing for a fall to the support of the price channel line, towards the 1.2040 area, but it still needs to go below the signal level of 1.2175 for this.  The four-hour chart shows that the downward trend has not strengthened. To do so, the price needs to go below the MACD indicator line, below 1.2200, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator should move into the area of negative values. Both of these signals can become more successful when the price crosses the signal level of 1.2175. *Phân tích thị trường được đăng tải ở đây có nghĩa là để gia tăng nhận thức của bạn, nhưng không đưa ra các chỉ dẫn để thực hiện một giao dịch. Laurie Bailey, Benefit from analysts' recommendations right now Top up trading account Open trading account InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.  | |
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| How to Get Your Second Stimulus Payment Direct Deposited to Your Bank Account Posted: 20 Dec 2020 07:13 PM PST  Congressional leaders have agreed to a roughly $900 billion economic relief packages that includes a second round of stimulus payments, pursuant to the "Emergency Coronavirus Relief Act of 2020." The second stimulus payment will be:
In order to qualify for the second stimulus payment, you will need to have earned (in 2019) less than $75,000 (for individuals) or $150,000 (for married/joint filers). If your income is higher than those limits, then the stimulus payment is reduced by 5% of your adjusted gross income above those limits. This was the formula and income threshold under the first stimulus payment bill. How can you make sure you get the second stimulus payment quickly if you do qualify? The key is for the IRS to have direct deposit account information for your bank account. Otherwise the payment will be sent by mail and could be delayed significantly. How to get your stimulus payment direct depositedDepending on your situation, here is what you need to do to get your stimulus payment direct deposited to your bank account: 1. If you have already filed your 2019 tax return with the correct deposit informationIf you have already filed your 2019 tax return with the IRS with your correct direct deposit information, you don't need to do anything more. 2. If you haven't yet filed your 2018 or 2019 tax returnIf you haven't filed your 2018 or 2019 tax return with the IRS, you need to file either one electronically with the IRS (unless you are exempt as a Social Security benefits recipient as discussed below). There are some free websites that allow you to file your return electronically. See the sites recommended by the IRS at www.irs.gov/filing/free-file-do-your-federal-taxes-for-free. Make sure to include your direct deposit information in this filing (where it asks if you want any refund sent by direct deposit). 3. If you are not required to file income tax returns for 2018 or 2019You are not required to file federal income tax returns for 2018 and 2019 if:
If you are not required to file a federal income tax return, then you will probably have to wait for the IRS to open up the "Non-Filers: Enter Payments Info Here" tool to submit the information to get your second stimulus payment. (You cannot use this tool if you can be claimed as a dependent on someone else's tax return.) The information you will need to provide includes:
4. If you are a Social Security recipientThe Treasury previously announced that if you are a Social Security recipient who typically is not required to file a tax return, you will automatically receive your stimulus payment directly to your bank account without having to file a tax return as long as the IRS has your direct deposit information. 5. If the bank account you put on your tax return is no longer activeIf the bank account direct deposit information you provided in your last tax return is no longer active, the IRS will mail your payment to the last address it has on file for you. The "Get My Payment" IRS tool and how to provide current bank informationThe Treasury has created an online tool ("Get My Payment") where direct deposit information can be supplied to the IRS. Here is what you should do:
You can use the "Get My Payment" tool to find out the projected date for when your deposit is scheduled to arrive in your bank account. The "Get My Payment" tool will also tell you if you're set to receive payment by paper check, along with a scheduled arrival date in the mail. The tool, however, doesn't always work, and your inquiry may result in a "Payment Status Not Available" message. While "Get My Payment" allows you to give direct deposit information to the IRS, you cannot change bank information with the IRS if it already has an account for you on file. This is to help protect against potential fraud. You also can't change your form of payment if the IRS has already scheduled it for delivery. How to set up direct depositTo set up direct deposit, provide the following information:
 Will you have to pay any income tax on the second stimulus payment?You will not have to pay income tax on the amount of payment received. Avoid scams targeting your stimulus paymentCriminals this year have turned their attention to stealing stimulus payments. Much of this stems from identity theft, whereby criminals file false tax returns or supply other bogus information to the IRS to divert refunds to alternate addresses or bank accounts. Be sure to read Coronavirus stimulus payment scams: What you need to know, in which the FTC outlines to following four key points to help you avoid a scam:
Report scams to the Federal Trade Commission at ftc.gov/complaint. Related: How to Protect Yourself from the "Dirty Dozen" Tax Scams and Financial Help for Freelancers and Independent Contractors Affected by the Coronavirus Crisis What IRS resources are available for more information?Check these links for updated information: Copyright © by Richard D. Harroch. All Rights Reserved  | |
| Surging Momentum vs. High Valuations Posted: 20 Dec 2020 06:08 PM PST
Waiting on Congress and the Fed By John Jagerson and Wade Hansen As we mentioned last week, the market is overvalued as a whole. There are still opportunities for bulls, which we will use to our advantage, however, because valuations are so extreme, we plan to continue being very conservative about our overall exposure to the market. As we reach the end of the year, there is growing optimism that Congress will pass another stimulus bill. Reporting this week suggests that the bill will contain approximately $750 billion in aid, which is precisely the number we said had been priced into the market in our Nov. 18 Weekly Update. If the stimulus passes in December, the market will have dodged one of the major X-factors that could lower prices over the next 60 days. As long as 10-year Treasury bond yields don't climb above 1%, we expect the S&P 500 to hit our price target of 3,872. Transportation and small-cap stocks are still confirming that upside potential.
An important factor for keeping interest rates low and optimism high will be how the market settles after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) statement (on Wednesday). Economic projections from the Fed are low for next year at 4.2%, but that is compared to a lowered estimate of 2.4% for this year. So far, this was largely expected and is probably good news because investors need to believe that the Fed will continue buying assets in 2021 at the same rate as it did in 2020. If the Fed continues to buy assets at its current pace, we expect rates to remain relatively low, and high stock valuations won't be as worrisome. However, as usual, the Fed's statement was a little vague about the duration or magnitude of those asset purchases. The statement also included language indicating that the Fed wouldn't start tightening again until inflation and growth projections were on track to meet expectations for "some time." Although that too is vague, we feel that the sentiment is in favor of more easing for a long time, which is likely why the market popped back up after the announcement. If the Fed's statement contains any real issues the market needs to contend with, we will probably be able to detect that weakness later this week. We are watching the high yield bond market for any cracks in investor sentiment. The high yield market, or "junk" bond market, has already been lagging stocks during the most recent rally, and if investors feel that the Fed wants to slow asset purchases, we should see it in this asset class first.
There is an old trading adage that you should buy the rumor and sell the news. Essentially, this means traders should consider selling assets after the thing they have been looking forward to happening has passed. For example, if investors have been buying the market ahead of the Fed's announcement, expecting continued support from the Fed and another stimulus package, they will likely take profits and sell the market once those expectations — or "rumors" if you will — become a reality. Besides high valuations, a "selling the news" cycle of profit-taking is one reason we continue to position ourselves cautiously bullish. But remember, selling the news is not the same thing as a bear market. For example, following the passage of the original stimulus (CARES Act) on March 27, 2020, the market dropped 5% as some traders took profits. The dip was only temporary, though. We plan to use any dips as entry opportunities on the few value plays that are available. There are still stocks that could benefit from the new distance learning/work-from-home culture, and retail spending should help put a floor under consumer sector stocks. We have already reopened one of our "stay-at-home" stocks this week with short puts on Logitech (LOGI), even without a dip.
We have heard some concerns that since the consensus is so positive, we might be at risk of being caught unprepared in a sudden reversal by being bullish ourselves. If we look at market prices in isolation, being bullish wouldn't make much sense, but we must think more broadly. Confidence surveys are at extreme highs, so "being fearful when others are greedy" as Warren Buffett once said would seem like a good idea. However, as Keynes is supposed to have said, "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent." So, instead of committing entirely to one direction or the other, we recommend remaining very nimble, so we can make changes as needed. Although we are heading towards the holiday weeks, a few events could help provide a bit more certainty in either direction: 1. A Brexit "deal" is still a possibility between the UK and the EU. Traders seem optimistic that a deal is likely, and we should know more before the Dec. 31 deadline. 2. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report will be released on Thursday and could confirm an accelerating recovery in the Northeast. 3. A spending bill needs to pass through both houses of Congress and be signed by President Trump before this Friday at midnight to avoid a shutdown. We don't think there is a serious risk that it won't happen, but politics are hard to predict these days, so we should keep this in mind as the deadline approaches. Sincerely, John Jagerson and Wade Hansen  |
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