Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for USD/JPY on March 8, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on March 8, 2021
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 8. A new conflict has broken out between the European Union and the United Kingdom over
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 8. The US Senate has approved Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package
- Buying and Selling in the Stock Market on March 8, 2021
- Forecast for EUR/USD on March 8, 2021
- BTCUSD rejected at neckline resistance
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on March 8? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on March 8? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Tesla may get rid of bitcoin in the near future
- Few clients of the investment bank Goldman Sachs believe that bitcoin will grow above $ 100,000 in 2021
- Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 07, 2021
- JP Morgan: the demand for bitcoin among institutional investors has started to grow
- GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. Bears have taken the first step towards a new downward trend, but will they lose their
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. Key factors of the week: US inflation, ECB meeting, Treasury yield, and Joe Biden's "economic
| Forecast for USD/JPY on March 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Mar 2021 08:04 PM PST USD/JPY Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair continued its intensive growth, reaching above the target level of 108.16. Visually, the price will close today with a white candle, but the Marlin oscillator has already reached the overbought zone and is planning a reversal from the upper limit of its own growing channel. This morning came the data on Japan's balance of payments for January, which showed a deterioration in the indicator: 0.647 trillion yen versus December 1.166 trillion and forecasted 1.23 trillion yen. The data, of course, does not contribute to risk appetite (Nikkei 225 adds 0.2% against the background of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 1.20%). But nevertheless, stock indexes are growing and keeping the dollar from a deep correction. It is possible that the correction will not go even under the overcome level of 108.16 (the top of July 1, 2020), so today can be closed with a small black candle. And tomorrow, the growth will continue to the previously defined target of 109.10. From this level, a deeper correction is already likely and the exit of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the growing channel will become false, it will return to it later.
There are no reversal signs on the four-hour chart, only the Marlin slightly decreases with the last three candles growing, but this is still not a trend and not a signal for a reversal. We are waiting for developments. Today, the main factor is time.
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| Forecast for AUD/USD on March 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Mar 2021 08:03 PM PST AUD/USD Last Friday, the Australian dollar fell at the moment by 104 points, reaching almost the target level of 0.7615. However, with the caveat that the level is determined correctly. In any case, the downward trend is fixed – the price is under the indicator lines of the balance and the Kruzenshtern, the Marlin is fixed in the negative zone. If the price is fixed above the Kruzenshtern line, above 0.7725, which also coincides with the low of February 17, a corrective growth is possible in the area of peaks on January 6 to 7 (0.7815), but the main scenario assumes a resumption of the decline from the current levels to 0.7615 and subsequent bearish targets of 0.7565, 0.7500.
Based on the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has approached the border with the territory of growth, from it a downward reversal is possible as from the resistance line. We are waiting for developments.
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| Posted: 07 Mar 2021 07:53 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward. CCI: -148.6706 The British currency has been moving in the last week and a half identical to the euro currency. This suggests that the factors that affect both currency pairs are the same. Therefore, they come from across the ocean. However, we would also like to remind you that the euro/dollar pair has been correcting since the beginning of 2021, that is, for 2 months. However, the pound/dollar pair started doing this only a week and a half ago. Thus, on the one hand, the pound remains extremely overbought, and on the other hand, at any time, the "speculative" growth can resume, which drove the pound (partly) to such heights. Plus, this can also include the "US economic rescue plan" approved by the Senate, which now implies an infusion of $ 2 trillion into the economy, which can also play in favor of the British pound. From a technical point of view, the pound should continue to fall and at the same time a strong one. We have already noted the fact that over the past 11-12 months, the pound, for no particular fundamental reason (from the UK for sure), has grown by about the same amount as it fell during the four previous "Brexit" years. This is illogical. However, as we have already said, the factor of "speculative" growth and the factor of a new potential increase in the money supply in the United States may again play in favor of the pound. These points should also be kept in mind, without relying too much on the strong growth of the dollar. However, so far, downward trends have formed on all timeframes, starting from the 4-hour one, so it is naturally recommended to trade downwards. As we have repeatedly noted, any fundamental theory must be confirmed by specific technical signals. If they are not, then the theory, therefore, does not work yet. Meanwhile, a new conflict is breaking out between Britain and the EU. Last week, the government of Boris Johnson unilaterally extended for six months the simplified regime of checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom. These actions were not coordinated with the EU leadership. The Northern Ireland Secretary has already criticized 10 Downing Street, saying the European Union is negotiating with a partner that cannot be trusted. "The EU is now considering possible legal steps, which will mean a much tougher negotiation process in the future instead of a friendly partnership," said Simon Coveney. The Vice-President of the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, has already said that London violated the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is part of the agreement on the UK's withdrawal from the EU. However, London does not agree with the accusations of Brussels. David Frost, who negotiated the trade deal with Michel Barnier and now holds the post of Minister for Relations with the European Union, believes that "such precedents take place in international practice and are fully consistent with the intentions to fulfill the obligations under the protocol". Recall that from January 1, tough customs checks were to begin in the ports of Northern Ireland for goods arriving from the rest of the UK. However, since British firms were not ready for this, the EU and Britain agreed to introduce a simplified inspection regime for the first three months. This simplification consisted in the fact that some categories of goods passed through customs without many formalities. British firms were unable to adapt to the new customs regime by the beginning of March, so the British government made an offer to Brussels to extend the validity of the "simplified regime". The European Union refused, and now London has taken the appropriate decision unilaterally. It is still unclear how the European Union will respond to these illegal actions on the part of Boris Johnson, but most experts agree that Brussels has enough leverage to put pressure on the UK. It is only necessary to remember that there are no clauses in the trade agreement that would regulate the financial services sector. And for London, which has long been considered the financial capital of the world, this area means a lot. Earlier, we said that London is very unhappy with the fact that the European Union restricts the access of British financial companies to its market. According to 10 Downing Street, the European Union does not treat all its partners equally. The parties are currently negotiating on this issue, but the EU has the right to grant or not grant British companies access to its market. Thus, with the help of this lever, most likely, the pressure will be exerted on London. It should also be noted that the mood among the population of Ireland is already beginning to deteriorate. Many fear that new riots may begin in the near future. After all, the plan that defines the new mechanisms that will operate on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is good on paper, but in real life, problems have already begun to arise.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 113 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, March 8, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3717 and 1.3943. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top will signal a new round of corrective movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3794 S2 – 1.3733 S3 – 1.3672 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3855 R2 – 1.3916 R3 – 1.3977 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the sell orders with the targets of 1.3794 and 1.3733 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders with targets of 1.4038 and 1.4099 if the price is fixed above the moving average line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Mar 2021 07:53 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward. CCI: -176.1277 The EUR/USD currency pair continued a strong downward movement during the last trading day of last week. As we have said in previous articles, it could have been triggered by a whole group of factors. For example, on Friday, for the first time in a long time, a very strong report on NonFarm Payrolls was released, which could not but provoke a new strengthening of the US dollar. The unemployment rate also fell. However, the most interesting thing is that the euro/dollar pair fell all day. At the same time, again, it is impossible to say that the fall was strong, especially looking at the lower timeframes. Rather, it was calm. Thus, we tend to believe that both technical factors (the need for a correction after 11 months of growth), fundamental factors (the absence of an approved stimulus package from the US Congress at that time), and macroeconomic factors (strong statistics from overseas) are working in favor of the dollar. However, we still tend to believe that the US dollar will not rise for too long. Already this weekend, it became known that the US Senate approved Joe Biden's "plan to save the economy", so in the coming weeks, the US economy will begin to pump money again. But more on that below. Here we would like to note that the dollar can grow for as long as you want. There is a trend - it is this trend that needs to be worked out. When there are signals that will signal the end of the downward trend, then you will need to prepare for a new upward trend. Now you just need to keep in mind the main fundamental factors and understand that the US currency can complete its growth at any time. A new $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package has been approved by the US Senate. This was announced on Saturday. It is noteworthy that only 49 senators voted against this bill. Thus, the decisive vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris was not required. It is reported that the Senate session lasted more than a day. There was a long debate about the "rescue plan", the Republicans wanted to make about three dozen amendments to the current draft, but in the end, they failed. "Our people have suffered a lot and for a long time. This aid package is entirely designed to alleviate the suffering of the American people and meet the nation's immediate needs. We will start with the fight against the "coronavirus" and vaccination. The funds will be used to expand the production of vaccines and accelerate their distribution. I think we will have enough doses by mid-May," US President Joe Biden said. "It's been a long day and a long night, but it's a new day, and we're telling the American people that help is on the way," said Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate. Now the bill must be sent back to the House of Representatives, which previously approved it, for a final vote, after which the document will go to Joe Biden for signature. The lower house is expected to vote on March 9. Thus, in the coming weeks, $ 2 trillion can be directed to the American economy. We have previously concluded that the fall in the US currency over the past 12 months could be directly related to a strong increase in the US money supply. Thus, another two trillion dollars can have a very negative impact on the exchange rate of the US currency. So far, the dollar is growing, but it is growing too fast and almost recoilless. We do not believe that such a sharp increase could have been triggered by an increase in the yield of American treasuries, especially since, as we have already said, this indicator began to grow not a week ago, but much earlier. However, it should also be noted that the markets are undoubtedly reacting to this factor now. Therefore, if the yield continues to grow this week, then the dollar can continue to grow. Although after a total drop of 350 points over the past week and a half, we expect at least a pullback to the top, which may just happen at the beginning of a new trading week. From a technical point of view, the decline continues and both linear regression channels have already turned down. Therefore, we have a trend both in the long term and in the short term. The Heiken Ashi indicator painted the last bars in blue, so at the moment there is not even a single sign of the beginning of a correction. Therefore, those traders who are still in sales can continue to stay in them. There is little hope for the level of 1.1887 – this is the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the last two-month growth of the euro/dollar pair. A rebound from this level can trigger a round of upward movement or even a resumption of a long-term upward trend, as well as a rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level. But overcoming it will significantly increase the chances of continuing to move south. The levels of 50.0% and 61.8% are the strongest and, if there is no rebound from them, it usually continues to move.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of March 8 is 87 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1823 and 1.1997. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top can signal a round of upward correction. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1902 S2 – 1.1841 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1963 R2 – 1.2024 R3 – 1.2085 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues to move down. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open short positions with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1841 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first target of 1.2085. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Buying and Selling in the Stock Market on March 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Mar 2021 07:48 PM PST Purchase of Kraft Heinz Co (#KHC) shares. The stock quotes of this American food concern have been in the medium-term bullish price channel since mid-March 2020. After the price reversal from the lower border of the channel in mid-January 2021, the price went up with the support of technical indicators. On a weekly scale, the Marlin oscillator is growing in its own rising channel. In all likelihood, it will be decisive in realizing the growing potential.
The main target of growth is the magnetic point at the intersection of the 138.2% Fibonacci level with the price channel line - 42.65. Above is the target at the upper limit of the price channel 45.00, but it is not confirmed by the Fibonacci and the Marlin signal line may turn earlier, at the moment when it reaches the upper limit of its own channel. However, fixing the price above 42.65 (on the lower time frames) will indicate the intention of the price to still work out the second target.
On the daily scale, it can be seen how the price retested the 100.0% Fibonacci level and went to overcome the level of 110.0%. The Marlin oscillator is also growing here without going under the linear support. Sale of Starbucks Corporation (#SBUX) shares. On the weekly scale chart, a divergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator has formed. The diamond-shaped price-time construction gives us the desired parameters: 81.60 in July of this year. On this path, the price is waiting for an intermediate target at the level of 87.00, but without the time parameter.
The target level of 87.00 corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The final target is 81.60 near the 50.0% retracement level. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the January low, which is also a significant moment for the downward movement. As a result, we get three main targets: 95.90, 87.0, and 81.60.
There is a divergence on a daily scale, the price went under the MACD indicator line. Further decline in the price is likely.
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| Forecast for EUR/USD on March 8, 2021 Posted: 07 Mar 2021 07:17 PM PST EUR/USD Friday's strong US employment data pulled down the euro by 54 points. In the non-agricultural sector, 379,000 new jobs were created, the January figure was revised upward to 117,000, while unemployment dropped from 6.3% to 6.2%. Excellent data on the Chinese trade balance for February came out on Sunday: the total balance reached $103 billion against the forecast of $60 billion, exports increased by 60% y/y against the expectation of 39%. But the data was not welcomed with optimism this morning. At the moment, the price is consolidating in the target range of 1.1915/48, and the Marlin oscillator turned to the upside under the initial conditions of convergence which tells us about the possibility of a deeper upward correction.
Getting the price to settle below the lower border of the channel (1.1882) will extend the decline to the target level of 1.1800 (low on November 23, 2020), from which the probability of a correction will become higher. It will be limited by the lower border of the descending price channel.
On the four-hour chart, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator is formed in the same way. This can be either a real convergence with the price exit above 1.1948, or an apparent one, until it is formed, and the price can continue to decline. From the practical point of view, when making a decision to open a position, it is worth waiting for the end of today and tomorrow. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTCUSD rejected at neckline resistance Posted: 07 Mar 2021 01:29 PM PST In our previous analysis on Bitcoin, we showed the possibility that price was forming a bullish pattern. The inverted head and shoulders pattern was in the process of creating the right hand shoulder. Price reached the neckline resistance this weekend but bulls so far are unable to break above resistance.
Red line - neckline resistance In order for the inverted head and shoulders pattern to get activated, price needs to break above the neckline resistance. Today price reached the resistance but is getting rejected. Support and major pivot point is the right hand shoulder low at $46,359. Breaking below this level will cancel the bullish pattern and increase chances of more downside and specially below $43,121. If resistance is broken then the inverted head and shoulders pattern gets activated and our first target is at $60,150. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Mar 2021 01:26 PM PST Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair was trading lower on Friday, but this move was completely unpredictable. It would seem that both major pairs move almost identically if you look at the higher timeframes. But a serious difference is noticeable on the hourly timeframe. From February 26 to March 4, the pound/dollar pair, in fact, stood in one place and did not go down. During this time, the downward trend line could have been rebuilt five times, and the price would have settled above it five times. So the current downward trend is very, very formal. Back on Wednesday, traders had two trendlines at their disposal, but trading was absolutely crazy on Thursday and the whole technical picture was disrupted. As a result, the pair's quotes rebounded off the 1.3999 level, which triggered a new round of downward movement. In our last review, we advised you to not enter the market on Friday. The likelihood of another crazy day was too high, especially given the amount of important macroeconomic statistics that was planned for that day. Now the downward trend seems to be continuing, but this does not mean that the pound will move more logically and more calmly. We continue to believe that the pair's current movement is inconvenient to work out, especially for beginners. The UK did not release an important report last Friday, and US macroeconomic reports and the growth factor in the yield of US government bonds caused the dollar to fall, because of which the entire foreign exchange market seemed to go crazy in the last week and a half. However, it was these factors that traders reacted to on Friday. The pound fell again, but the further prospects for the pair are difficult to predict. Most importantly, it is unclear how long the markets are going to pay increased attention to government bonds in the United States, if two weeks ago no one even thought about them? No major events scheduled in the UK and the US on Monday, March 8, so fundamentals may be missing on this day. However, this does not mean that trading will be calm and an upward correction will begin. The markets are now in an agitated state, so a strong downward movement can easily continue on Monday. Especially if it turns out that the yield on US Treasury bonds is growing again. Possible scenarios on March 8: 1) Long positions are irrelevant at the moment, since there is a downward trend line. Buyers need to wait for the price to settle above this trendline to be able to consider bull trading. Take note that this trend line is rather formal, so you should be careful when opening any positions and do not forget about Stop Loss. On Monday, the price is unlikely to be able to get to the trend line and overcome it. 2) Short positions are also relevant, since the downward trend line is also present. However, novice traders will need to at least wait for a round of upward correction so that the MACD indicator is discharged to zero. After that, it will be possible to track the formation of sell signals and open short positions with targets near the support levels of 1.3840 and 1.3791. When passing in the right direction, we recommend setting 15-20 Stop Loss to zero. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  |
| Posted: 07 Mar 2021 01:26 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement without any preliminary correction, which, again, was extremely difficult for novice traders to work out. The problem was that the EUR/USD pair did not correct at all, and it continued to move down last Friday night, although a flat or correction is usually observed at night. However, this time the trend on the hourly timeframe is very strong and there was no correction. And since there was no correction, then the MACD indicator did not discharge to the zero level and did not generate a new sell signal. Thus, the downward movement was strong and it was possible to make money on it, but it was not a classic one, so other, more aggressive trading systems are necessary for such movements. Take note that every move requires its own trading systems. There are trading systems that perform well in the flat, allowing you to make money; and there are also those that behave well on a strong trend. In general, we have a strong downward trend, so bearish trading should be considered. However, this requires a correction, and then a resumption of the downward movement. The downward trend line allows for this scenario. No important reports from the European Union last Friday, but very important reports came out in America. Let's start with the unemployment rate, which fell from 6.3% to 6.2%, giving traders a reason to continue buying the dollar. Secondly, NonFarm Payrolls - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector - is the most important indicator of the state of the labor market in the United States - reached +379,000 against a forecast of +197,000. Thus, the second most important report of the day turned out to be very optimistic. Basically, the markets were buying the dollar even without these reports. Over the past week and a half, a very important topic for the markets is the growth of government bond yields in the United States, which provokes the dollar's appreciation. It seems that this is the main reason for such a firm strengthening of the dollar on Friday. No important reports planned for either the US or the European Union. However, if the yield on US government bonds continues to rise, then the dollar may continue to rise. However, we are more inclined towards a correction, since the pair has already gone down 350 points. Possible scenarios on March 8: 1) Long positions remain irrelevant at the moment, and the situation remains confusing and ambiguous. You can buy the pair once it has finally surpassed the downward trend line. Take note that if at the moment the signal is formed, the price has already travelled a long distance, then the residual momentum can be extremely weak. At the moment, the price is very far from the trend line, therefore, most likely, no buy signals will be generated on Monday. 2) Trading for a fall looks more appropriate now, but it will require a signal from the MACD indicator during the day. The closer to the zero level such a signal is formed, the more chances it will be worked out. The targets are located at a distance of 40-50 points from the entry point. When a clear signal is formed and around 15-20 points of profit is gained, then we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Tesla may get rid of bitcoin in the near future Posted: 07 Mar 2021 05:07 AM PST
If we talk about the purchases of the BTC cryptocurrency by well-known companies, the first ones that come to mind are Tesla and Microstrategy. Both companies have invested more than $ 1 billion in bitcoin. At the same time, the main activity of both companies does not belong to the cryptocurrency segment. Tesla is a manufacturer of electric cars, Microstrategy is a supplier of analytical software. And it seems that this very moment is very upsetting for the investors of these companies. It is one thing when investors deliberately buy shares of companies associated with the cryptocurrency segment. They take into account all the risks associated with cryptocurrencies personally. And it's a completely different thing when investors find out that the company issuing their shares, which is supposed to produce electric cars, suddenly buys $ 1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. The price of Tesla shares fell by 28% in a month and this is a lot. Microstrategy's share price has fallen by 50% over the past month, and that's even more. Thus, other companies could see firsthand what happens when investing in bitcoin begins. After all, there is a big difference between the investments of individuals and legal entities. For example, if Elon Musk announced the purchase of bitcoin with personal funds, it is unlikely that this would lead to a collapse in Tesla shares. In our case, it turns out that Musk bought bitcoins with the money of shareholders. Thus, if you think logically, it turns out that the fall in the shares of these companies is quite normal. Investors are getting rid of the shares of these companies because not everyone wants to deal with bitcoin. Although, on the other hand, a strong drop in Tesla shares can be used by the company itself to buy them back at a cheaper price. However, this consolation is weak. Usually, companies are interested in raising additional funds through the placement of securities, and not vice versa. However, the former top manager of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, Gary Black, believes that the fall in the share price of Tesla would stop if its management announced the sale of bitcoins. "The shareholders would support this decision," Black said. Thus, this example may discourage large companies from investing in bitcoin. Private investors are another matter. In principle, their efforts may also be enough to make bitcoin more expensive for a long period. But companies, especially large ones, especially those that place shares, are unlikely to follow the example of Tesla and Microstrategy now. By the way, at the moment this information does not affect the BTC rate, which on Sunday, despite the status of the weekend, continues to trade with an increase. This means that they continue to buy it. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Mar 2021 05:07 AM PST
Investment bank Goldman Sachs shared the results of a survey among its clients about how much they think bitcoin will cost in the near future. About 76% of respondents believe that bitcoin will stay above the $ 40,000 mark in 2021. About 40% of the respondents own digital assets, while the rest are generally considering investing in cryptocurrencies in the near future. About 60% of the total number of owners expects an increase in the value of BTC in the next 1-2 years. More than half of the respondents believe that bitcoin will trade in the range of $ 40,000 - $ 100,000 in 2021. At the same time, 39% of respondents are not ready to invest in bitcoin or other digital assets in the near future. At the same time, analysts of the cryptocurrency company CrossTower believe that it is institutional investors who will eventually keep bitcoin above the $ 50,000 level. According to the company, the number of wallets that aggregate more than 1000 BTC has grown significantly recently. According to the company's analysts, this indicates an increase in interest in "digital gold" from large investors. Also, according to the company, this indicates that the high price does not deter institutionalists. Interest in bitcoin among investors remains consistently high even at the price of $ 50,000 per coin. "Many large investors in the February fall in the bitcoin exchange rate saw an opportunity to buy bitcoin at a more attractive price," the company said. Thus, if you try to analyze the mood of large investors, it seems that most of them are inclined to believe that bitcoin will continue to grow over the next 12-24 months. Only the figures that are called a cost forecast differ. We would like to note once again that, judging by history, bitcoin rarely forms long-term upward trend sections. Usually, a strong growth takes 5-6 months, after which the price goes into a strong correction, after which there is a period of stagnation, which can last 1-3 years. Thus, we do not yet believe in the scenario according to which there will be no strong downward correction. We expect that the correction will be at least 50% of the total growth. That's about $ 25,000 down. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 07, 2021 Posted: 07 Mar 2021 01:52 AM PST Bitcoin price has been highly volatile in the past week. Hence, BTC has known a very high volatility since weeks for that it is still moving between $2,000 and $5,000 daily. BTC's rally remains strong as the digital savings continues to protect critical support levels of $40 k and $45 k. Major support level has already set at $45,250. The BTC/USD managed to rise in price last week. The volatility of the speculative crypto-currency market will remain high - so be careful at your future trading. Warning : Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated. Bitcoin price has rebounded from a key support level on the daily chart and aims for a full recovery. The past week has been quite volatile for the major cryptocurrency experiencing moves of up to 45% in last five days. A lot has happened so let's take a look at the most important developments over the past week. Trading BTC/USD : Bitcoin Bitcoin holds the $45,250 - $ 50,000 region as near term support for now. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above $50 k with the first target at the level of $52,444. If the trend is be able to break the double top at the level of $52,444, then the market will continue rising towards the weekly resistance 1 at $58,225. Also, it should be noticed that the double top is set at $58,225. Trading recommendations : The trend is still bullish as long as the price of $ 45,250 k is not broken. Thereupon, it would be wise to buy above the price of at $ 50k with the primary target at $ 52,444. Then, the BTC/USD pair will continue towards the second target at $ 58,258 (a new target is around $ 58,258 later). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| JP Morgan: the demand for bitcoin among institutional investors has started to grow Posted: 07 Mar 2021 12:54 AM PST
In previous articles, we have already said that the support of $ 44,000 per coin is extremely important for bitcoin. At the moment, we can say that this support has kept the cryptocurrency from falling again, which means that the upward trend continues. At the time of writing, the price of one coin is $ 50,500. Thus, buyers are pushing again, so the probability of new growth to the absolute highs of the value of bitcoin is growing. And the main supplier of interesting fundamental information in recent years is JP Morgan, a large financial holding company. At the same time, the information that comes from the holdings experts often contradicts each other. Previously, there was information that BTC is not very popular among institutional investors. Even earlier, there was information that JP Morgan analysts consider bitcoin a very volatile instrument and do not advise their clients to invest large amounts in cryptocurrency. But at the same time, they allow investments in the amount of 1% of the portfolio. The latest information says that the bank has seen an increase in demand for the "cue ball" among institutional investors. However, it is not reported how high this increase is. However, the head of research, Joyce Chan, believes that institutions are increasing their interest in BTC. However, Chan is very concerned about the fact that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has grown by $ 700 billion over the past 5 months, with capital inflows of only about $ 11 billion. Ms. Chan believes that the demand for alternative investment tools will increase, however, she believes that bitcoin is not an effective hedging tool. "Financial technology is becoming mainstream after this pandemic," Chan said. Thus, if we put all the available information together, it turns out that the demand among the institutions is still growing, but rather a little. However, for the long-term growth of the value of bitcoin, this is exactly what is needed. The question is not even how many new investors will come to bitcoin over time. The question is how large investors will treat the "cue ball" itself in the first place. If for them it is the same means of investment as for small traders, then sooner or later bitcoin is waiting for a new collapse. It is large investors who will set the tone for bitcoin trading in the future.
On the daily timeframe, we can see that the price has adjusted by 61.8% in Fibonacci after falling from 58.5 thousand per coin. However, the upward movement on Sunday gives reason to assume that after all, most traders are inclined to new purchases of the "cue ball", and not to its sales. After the rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price could not go below the mark of $ 47,000, so a new test of the area of $ 43,000 - $ 44,000 did not occur. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 06 Mar 2021 11:48 PM PST The British pound has also been correcting over the past week. However, the downward movement of the pound/dollar pair looks much more modest on the 24-hour timeframe than the euro/dollar pair, although it has passed more points down. It's all the fault of the previous upward movement, which did not stop for 5 months, and the illustration clearly shows that during these five months there was not a single significant correction. A couple of kickbacks was all the bears could do. Thus, the current drop in quotes looks like something special. Especially given the fact that it is still very difficult to explain fundamentally such a strong growth of the British pound over the past year. We have already said that the 40% upward movement was the result of a "speculative" factor. The pound grew because new investors constantly bought it for the reason that it was growing. A vicious circle. But we understand that the currency should not grow in the style of bitcoin. It should not grow simply because it is bought. Although the laws of supply and demand work, the currency is not a commodity. This is a means used for calculations, which in itself should not affect the value of a particular product. That is, in other words, currencies should be as stable as possible. But the pound has had big problems with stability in the last five months. Therefore, now it is even difficult to imagine what awaits the pound/dollar pair in the coming week. It seems that it also sank due to the growth of the yield of treasuries, however, if you again look at the chart and the five-month growth of the pair, then the current downward movement can be described as a banal technical correction. Thus, in the case of the pound sterling, the situation is excessively confusing and we recommend paying more attention to the technical picture of the hourly and 4-hour timeframes. Also, we should not forget that this weekend the US Senate approved a package of stimulus measures for $ 1.9 trillion, so in the near future, a new pile of money may flow into the economy, which again can affect the dollar exchange rate very unfavorably. Next week, only the consumer price index for February can be distinguished from the macroeconomic statistics in the United States. In the UK, there will be no macroeconomic publications during the week at all, only the indicators of GDP and industrial production will be released on Friday. However, industrial production is unlikely to be of much interest to market participants, and the GDP report may show the strongest decline in January. And it should be understood that this reduction will be exactly in January. That is, at the moment, GDP for the fourth quarter is at a positive level of +1% q/q. However, thanks to January, which is expected to fall, this +1% may turn into a more logical "negative value". "More logical" because in the UK this winter there were as many as two "lockdowns" and only tomorrow, March 8, they will begin to weaken. Thus, three days out of five will be devoid of macroeconomic impact. However, as we have already mentioned in the article on the euro/dollar, it is quite possible that during the week, a strong influence on the US currency will be exerted by factors of growth in the yield of US treasuries and the potential growth of the money supply in the US due to the approval of the Senate of a new package of stimulus measures. Thus, as early as Monday, it will be clear in principle whether the bears are ready to continue pushing the pair down. We still believe that the US currency does not have bright prospects for 2021, however, it should be understood that this is the foreign exchange market. It has a huge number of participants, and there are a huge number of factors that affect a particular currency. Some factors are not even available to ordinary traders. Therefore, there are situations when a couple moves in a certain direction, and why it does this, no one can explain. Thus, you should always try to trade based on the totality of all available information and factors. You should never believe all the "100% forecasts". For the pound/dollar pair, these tips are now immensely relevant. There has been no important news coming out of the UK lately. The country begins to gradually relax the "lockdown" and remove quarantine restrictions on March 8. The vaccination process is also continuing at a high rate, and as of March 7, 21.3 million people in the Foggy Albion have already received the first vaccination against the "coronavirus". The draft budget for 2021 has been agreed upon, businesses and the unemployed will continue to receive financial support until the entire adult population of the country receives its dose of the vaccine, and the economy does not get rid of the impact of a difficult epidemiological situation. Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair: The pound/dollar pair on the 4-hour timeframe has also started to move down and here it looks more impressive than on the 24-hour timeframe. At the end of the last week, the pair worked out the first support level of 1.3792 and is now thinking about what to do next. On the one hand, the current correction is very weak compared to the five-month period when it fell and grew. Thus, the "technique" speaks in favor of continuing the fall. But the "foundation" can prevent this, so you should keep in mind the possible reversal of the pair up and the resumption of a strong upward trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 06 Mar 2021 11:48 PM PST A new week begins in the foreign exchange market. The last seven trading days have confused all the cards in your hands. Although we allowed a decline in the pair's quotes and a strong strengthening of the dollar as part of a downward technical correction against the 11-month upward trend or at least against the last 2-month round of the upward movement. However, after testing the 50.0% Fibonacci level and the lower Senkou Span B line, we thought that the correction would be completed and the upward trend would resume. However, in practice, the bears unexpectedly became more active at the end of February and began to put pressure on the euro/dollar pair. The main reasons for this were strong macroeconomic statistics from America, as well as strong growth in US government bond yields. The second factor, from our point of view, looks very doubtful. We have already said that everything looks as if the market has found a convenient explanation for what is happening. First, Treasury yields didn't start rising yesterday or a week ago. It has been growing since the beginning of August 2020. The growth has accelerated in recent weeks, however, it also accelerated not yesterday or a week ago. Therefore, it is unclear how the fact that the US dollar started strong growth a week ago is related to the fact that Treasury bond yields have been rising for 6 months. Secondly, the yield of European government securities is also growing, but for some reason, no one is trying to link this fact to the movement of the euro currency. It should be noted in general - the growth in the yield of government debt securities in conditions when many countries of the world and their central banks have poured tens and hundreds of billions of dollars into their economies, this is normal. The economy is saturated with liquidity, money is taken from nowhere, so according to all economic laws, we should expect an increase in inflation. It is the growth of inflation that investors are waiting for when they refuse to buy ten-year bonds because of low-interest rates. This percentage determines the profit of investors, however, there are serious concerns that inflation in 2021 will jump up and exceed the 2% mark. But Jerome Powell and the company do not intend to reduce the key rate until the labor market fully recovers. And this phenomenon is not expected until mid-2022. Thus, inflation will not be limited by raising the key rate, and this is even more frightening for long-term investors. Simply put, if inflation exceeds the bond yield rate, then investors will not receive any profit on these bonds. They will receive losses. Therefore, few people now buy treasuries, so the yield rates are rising to attract new investors. What does this mean for the US dollar? If the demand for bonds is low, then the US dollar is low, as none of the international investors are in a hurry to buy dollars to buy government securities. Domestic investors also do not invest in treasuries, so the money supply and demand also do not change. Therefore, the phenomenon of the increase in the yield of treasuries is not so much in line with the strong strengthening of the US currency. However, next week, all the attention of the market will again be focused on this factor. Here it is necessary to understand the correlation that has arisen. An example is bitcoin. Cryptocurrency becomes more expensive by 5-10 thousand dollars per day from just one tweet of Elon Musk. Is this logical? No. But it works. The same is true now for the euro/dollar pair. The growth of the US dollar-based on the growth in bond yields, which began 6 months ago, is not entirely logical, but does it work? It's still working. Therefore, during the next week, this factor will have to be paid attention to. But there will be an unprecedented lack of macroeconomic statistics next week. On Tuesday, the European Union will publish the volume of GDP for the fourth quarter in the second estimate. However, traders are already ready for the value of -5.0% y/y and -0.6% q/q. On Wednesday, the United States will publish an inflation report, and experts believe that this indicator will grow from 1.4% y/y to 1.5-1.7% y/y. So far, the growth of the consumer price index can be regarded as a positive phenomenon. On Thursday, the results of the ECB meeting will be summed up, but no changes in the monetary policy parameters are expected, so the most important event of the day will be the ECB press conference. On Friday, the eurozone will publish an indicator of the change in industrial production for January. Thus, in general, only two events can be noted during the week: the US inflation report and the ECB press conference after the meeting. And these events are not a fact that will have an impact on the euro/dollar pair. Thus, most likely, other fundamental factors will influence the movement of the pair. As we have already said, this may be a factor in the growth of the yield of 10-year treasuries or it may be a factor in the infusion of another $ 2 trillion into the US economy as a new stimulus package, which was approved this weekend by the US Senate. Thus, in the coming weeks, a huge amount of money will be sent to the US economy, which will necessarily affect the supply of the US currency in the markets. This may not happen immediately, but these 2 trillion dollars will have an impact on the market and the dollar exchange rate. Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour chart shows that the new downward trend continues, but has the status of "strong". And strong movements usually do not last long. Now there is no crisis or acute situation in the world, as it was, for example, in March last year. Therefore, there are no special reasons for panic. Consequently, the downward movement of the euro/dollar pair may be short-term. We have good reasons to believe that the current strengthening of the dollar (its strength and speed) was not completely justified fundamentally. However, as long as the downward trend persists, it is recommended to continue to consider options for opening short positions. The nearest target for the Ichimoku system is the support level of 1.1827. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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