Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Analysis of GBP/USD on May 24. Pound retains great chances to further increase
- Analysis of EUR/USD on May 24. Christine Lagarde gave a slight respite to the US dollar
- Major altcoins are recovering after the weekend crash: forecasts
- Bitcoin: Hectic weekend, encouraging Monday. What to expect from the main cryptocurrency?
- May 24, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- May 24, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- May 24, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- Trading Signal for BITCOIN for May 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above $37,500
- Trading Signal for Nasdaq 100, #NDX for May 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above 13,480
- GBP/USD. Pound on steroids, theory or failed plan
- EUR/USD Up Channel Continuation!
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for May 24 - 25, 2021: Sell Below 1.2207
- GBP/USD: plan for the US session on May 24 (analysis of morning trades)
- EUR/USD: plan for the US session on May 24 (analysis of morning trades)
- Cryptocurrency market analysis on May 24. Bitcoin prepares to rise to $42,000
- Ethereum New Swing Higher!
- USDJPY continues to respect key trend line support
- Short-term technical analysis on EURUSD for May 24, 2021
- Short-term technical analysis on Gold for May 24, 2021
- XRP back tests major broken resistance area.
- Short-term reversal signs in Bitcoin.
- GBP/USD bulls do not abandon ambitious plans
- BTC analysis for May 24,.2021 - Inside days formation and potential for the breakout
- EUR/USD analysis for May 24 2021 - Potentia lfor the downside rotation towards 1.2165
- Analysis of Gold for May 24,.2021 - Watch for potential breakout of the rising channel
| Analysis of GBP/USD on May 24. Pound retains great chances to further increase Posted: 24 May 2021 05:15 PM PDT
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has slightly cleared, but it still raises certain questions. The latest increase in quotes led to an update of the high of the expected wave e, so now, this wave no longer looks like e at least in terms of its internal wave structure. It may still be wave e, but then it should end soon. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the instrument will start a new decline from the current positions at least within the three wave structure. In this case, the issue of updating the February highs will be postponed for several weeks, or even months. So far, it can be said that both attempts to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level were unsuccessful since the instrument did not reach this level for several points each time. However, it can also be recalled that the current wave pattern of the upward trend section, which presumably originates on March 25, may be transformed. In particular, it is still not clear where the lower point of the current ascending set of waves is located, since the low waves of c and b are almost the same. The GBP/USD pair also reacted to the news background on Friday, but unlike the EUR/USD, the US statistics and an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level played a greater role. In the UK, economic reports were also very positive. Markets have found that the British economy is also recovering at a fairly high rate, although it is still very far from the American ones. Nonetheless, the April retail sales strongly increased, and PMIs in the services and manufacturing sectors were above the levels of the previous month. In the US, the statistics were positive, which supported the dollar during the afternoon. Business activity indices were also better than market expectations and above April values. However, even the loss of 90 basis points by the instrument on Friday does not allow us to make adjustments to the wave pattern now. This week, the Bank of England's parliamentary hearings on monetary policy and a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, were scheduled. However, there is no information yet from this event. The GBP/USD tried to continue Friday's decline during the day, but it retreated from the daily lows each time and is now trading near the opening levels of the day, thus maintaining high chances to further construct an upward pattern. The wave pattern continues to be very confusing, so it is suggested to wait for it to clear up. There are at least several options for a wave pattern, each of which can be implemented in the coming weeks. At this time, the upward wave e is supposed to be done with its formation. However, its internal wave structure looks ambiguous even now. It is possible to sell the instrument with a protective order above the level of 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci.
The upward section of the trend, which started to form several months ago, is taking on a quite unclear form. It was mentioned above that several wave pattern options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave pattern to slightly clear up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of EUR/USD on May 24. Christine Lagarde gave a slight respite to the US dollar Posted: 24 May 2021 10:20 AM PDT
On the four-hour time frame, the wave pattern is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. The previous movements raise small questions about their belonging to a certain wave of a bigger scale, but in general, the wave pattern does not require any additions or clarifications. It can be assumed that the 3-in-3 wave is now continuing its formation. If so, the increase in quotes will continue with targets located near the level of 1.2350, which corresponds to 0.0% in Fibonacci. Given the size and length of the proposed first wave, which also raises no questions, the third wave can also be quite extended. In addition, the instrument made two unsuccessful attempts to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which also indicates that the markets are not ready for sales. By all indications, the increase in the quotes of this instrument should continue. The news background last Friday was quite filled, although it cannot be said that it strongly influenced the current wave pattern. The details will not be discussed, so let's just say that the business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU and the US turned out to be higher than a month earlier. Therefore, both the euro and the dollar received some market support. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said that it is too early for the ECB to discuss the possible end of the bond-buying program had the biggest impact on the instrument. Recently, the program of emergency response to the consequences of the pandemic (PEPP) is 1.85 trillion euros and has already been expanded and extended several times. Lagarde said, "We are committed to maintaining favorable funding conditions through the PEPP program, and we intend to do so at least until March 2022." Thus, it ended all speculation that the European Central Bank may begin to tighten monetary policy. In fact, Lagarde's similar rhetoric did not raise any questions, as did the marking of the EUR/USD pair. The European economy ended the fourth and first quarters with negative economic growth. Therefore, it would be naive to expect that the ECB will announce the curtailment of the bond-buying program after such weak values, even without waiting for data for the second quarter of 2021. But still, it was the "dovish" rhetoric that let the quotes slightly exit from the reached highs, that is, a decline in the Euro currency. However, the increase in quotes has continued and an exit to the 23rd mark and above can be expected this week. Based on the analysis, the instrument is still expected to rise. At this time, the construction of the correctional wave 2 or b, as well as the internal wave 2 as part of the assumed 3, is supposedly completed. Thus, it is now suggested to continue to buy the instrument with targets located around the 23rd mark for each MACD upward signal. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet, as it seems perfect.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite a complete, five-wave form and is not going to get complex yet. But the section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the formation of a new upward trend section continues and its first two waves have already been done. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Major altcoins are recovering after the weekend crash: forecasts Posted: 24 May 2021 09:47 AM PDT The main cryptocurrencies again sank heavily in terms of indicators over the weekend due to the sale, which was arranged by market participants. Because of this, many altcoins have hit three-month lows. However, at the beginning of the new week, when the negative from China was completely won back, the indicators of cryptocurrencies crawled up again. Due to the rapid growth, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 16.5%, reaching $1.62 trillion. The main altcoin began to recover its positions at a rapid pace and is already approaching a two-week high. ETH has risen in price by 25.5% per day with daily trading volumes of $81 billion, which indicates an increased demand for the asset. Given the narrower dynamics of price changes, the demand for buying a coin is much higher than for selling. Due to the favorable positions for new players to enter the ETH network, as well as the approaching next stage of the update, the ether is getting to the historical maximum faster than others. At the next stage of the update, miners' commissions should decrease, and the network bandwidth may also increase, which promises the asset a multiple increase in quotes. Judging by the horizontal charts, the cryptocurrency will approach the important milestone of $2,500 soon, after which the coin will roll back. ETH will likely try to gain a foothold behind this mark and approach another important milestone of $2,900, where strong market resistance is also concentrated.
The Ripple token, which broke through all the supports and turned out to be at the level of the February minimum, is also beginning to recover its positions. Although the fall in the asset was much stronger than ETH, XRP's growth is only 15% per day. The cryptocurrency is quoted at $0.851, while daily trading volumes remain low, which indicates a greater predisposition of players to other assets. Despite this, cryptocurrencies retain their audience, and now the quotes of the coin are at the most favorable line for the entry of new players. XRP/USD will soon climb to the dangerous $1,000 mark, and the coin will need a powerful impulse to overcome this mark.
LTC is recovering at about the same level as XRP, which has risen in price by 14% over the course of a day. The position of the cryptocurrency was seriously shaken over the weekend, and the coin slipped to 12th place in terms of capitalization with a result of $11 billion. The current rate of price growth suggests that the asset is still not of interest to large investors and is a tool for trading small traders. Soon, the cryptocurrency will focus on the performance of stronger altcoins and will try to overcome the $200 mark and gain a foothold above it.
Even though the market is showing growth, there are all prerequisites for subsequent jumps in the value of cryptocurrencies due to the constant flow of negative news from China. Recently it became known that Huobi is significantly reducing the supply of mining equipment, and some companies for the extraction of crypto assets are beginning to scale back production to move to safer countries. In addition, the last market downturn occurred on May 22-23, and large investors continue to campaign to reduce their presence in the cryptocurrency market in favor of more stable instruments. This is because a series of announcements related to the problems of mining companies will continue until the Chinese authorities seek a compromise with the market or the complete withdrawal of business from this country. Do not forget about the ambiguous position of the US regulator, which continues to butt with Ripple, and also launched an investigation into Musk's influence on the crypto market. Given all this, there is no reason to hope that the current growth in coin performance will be the beginning of an upward trend and, most likely, in the near future, the trend for sudden wide fluctuations in the range of 10% -15% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization will continue. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin: Hectic weekend, encouraging Monday. What to expect from the main cryptocurrency? Posted: 24 May 2021 09:24 AM PDT The weekend in the cryptocurrency market has been hectic. Bitcoin has tumbled, pulling altcoins along with it as the Chinese government tightens its crackdown on mining companies. Plans to attack bitcoin mining and trading in the country became known from the statement of the State Council Committee. A cabinet decision led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He showed that regulatory controls are aimed at mining virtual currency as a way to protect against financial risks. Some miners, such as Huobi and BTC.TOP responded by saying they would suspend operations in mainland China. Thus, Huobi announced that it has suspended cryptocurrency mining and the provision of trading services to new clients. Instead, the company intends to focus on providing services overseas. Mining company BTC.TOP, in announcing the termination of operations in China, cited growing concerns about regulatory requirements. And HashCow has announced that it will not invest in any new BTC mining rigs. The mining ban was the second blow from China to the cryptocurrency market. But, as we can see, its influence was already as strong as the collapse of the "bloody Wednesday". On Sunday, bitcoin lost 17%, at the moment it went into the area of $31,000 per coin but did not update the minimum of a week. What's next? The range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24 remains a broad frame for bitcoin. Locally, the level of 38,610.88 was outlined as a resistance, which worked before, and now it may remain the actual resistance. But not a fact, we must observe. As the target for the downward trend, it is worth keeping in mind the minimum of the "bloody Wednesday" - the level of 29,348.95. But so far, the breakdown of support level 34,708.27 is questionable. Well, the technical picture can hardly be called clear, except for the "wide frame" - the corridor 28,392.99 - 41,980.24. And locally, the situation is likely to become clearer in the coming days. At least, if no new shocks follow, bitcoin will recover. And it is necessary to wait for the formation of the border of this growth.
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| May 24, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 24 May 2021 08:49 AM PDT
During April, the ongoing downside movement ( on the left side of the chart ) came to an end. The price levels around 1.1700 provided Significant BUYING Pressure. This initiated the recent uptrend towards 1.2150. Another downside movement was expressed towards 1.1990. Breakdown below it was needed to allow one more downside visit towards 1.1840. However, an upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 (backside of the broken trendline) which provided sufficient bearish pressure resulting in a quick downside movement towards 1.2070. Earlier this week, another upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure. Breakout above 1.2175 enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2250 as an initial target. Further upside movement was expected to pursue towards 1.2300 where the backside of the broken trend line can be tested. However, the pair has failed to do so. On the other hand, re-closure below 1.2175 is needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish again. If so, initial bearish decline would be demonstrated towards 1.2110 and 1.2070. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May 24, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 24 May 2021 08:47 AM PDT
Recently, finding significant demand around 1.2000, has allowed another bullish movement to pursue towards higher price levels ( 1.2100 - 1.2130 ) where bearish rejection was previously anticipated. Although transient bullish breakout above this zone was temporarily expressed, the pair has failed to maintain bullish movement above 1.2130. Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 was needed to establish a short-term downtrend. However, the price zone around 1.1970 has provided significant bullish rejection so far leading to the current bullish breakout above 1.2050 then 1.2130. Currently, Bullish trades are quite risky. That's why, we should be waiting for signs of bearish rejection like what happened earlier last week. On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2110-1.2130 remains an intraday demand zone to offer bullish support upon retesting unless it gets broken to the downside ( highly expected scenario ). Bearish re-closure below 1.2100 then 1.2050 is needed for more bearish domination. If so, Next bearish targets would be located around 1.2020 then 1.1990. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May 24, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 24 May 2021 08:39 AM PDT
In April, Bearish Persistence below 1.3800 favoured bearish decline towards the 1.3600 levels. Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. However, the GBPUSD pair was contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times before a temporary bullish spike could reach the price level of 1.4120. The previous spike above 1.3880 has re-tested the backside of the depicted broken channel around 1.4015 which applied significant bearish pressure on the pair. This turned out to be a bullish trap until another bullish breakout occurred shortly afterwards. Moreover, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3800 (76% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.4225 where the lower limit of the recently-broken channel is currently located. Around the price levels of 1.4225, Conservative traders should be waiting for signs of bearish rejection. If so, quick bearish decline should be anticipated towards 1.4050 then 1.3950 as initial target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for BITCOIN for May 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above $37,500 Posted: 24 May 2021 07:58 AM PDT
In the early hours of the American session, Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at the 2/8 murray level, a key area. If the BTC remains above this level, there could be a new upward momentum to the zone $43,750. The crackdown on crypto miners in China - who account for around 70% of the world's supply - is the latest episode in a series of actions that Beijing is taking against the digital currency sector. Some investors and analysts in the digital currency market have claimed that fears about China's regulatory measures could persist. During the weekend we saw that BTC fell to the 1/8 murray zone, key support, and demonstrating the strength of this level that coincides with the psychological level of $ 30,000. BTC / USD has set a floor for now, and as long as it remains above $30,000, there is a probability that it will hit the psychological level of $50,000. On the 4-hour BTC chart, you can see a trend line drawn from the beginning of the BTC decline, to the low of $31,000. That line has been broken. If BTC consolidates above that channel bearish, it could be released from the downward pressure and there could be a further bullish momentum to $45,000 and the zone of $50,000 in the short term. We can also observe the double bottom, which represents a good zone to buy if the price again makes a correction towards this zone. Our recommendation is to buy the BTC at the current levels above $37,500 with targets at $43,750 and $50,000 zone of the 200 EMA. Support and Resistance Levels for May 24 – 25, 2021 Resistance (3) 43,676 Resistance (2) 41,595 Resistance (1) 38,465 ---------------------------- Support (1) 36,112 Support (2) 34,146 Support (3) 30,397 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for Nasdaq 100, #NDX for May 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above 13,480 Posted: 24 May 2021 07:20 AM PDT
In the American pre-market, the Nasdaq 100 #NDX technology index is trading above its uptrend line and above the SMA of 21. The bias continues to be bullish for this index and in the next few hours it could reach up to the area of 13,593 and 13,750 The 6/8 of murray has now become strong support for the Nasdaq, #NDX, as it could continue to give it bullish strength until reaching the 8/8 of murray resistance level located at 13,750. The panic that inflation generates among investors continues, not so much because of its impact on economic growth. It can also end up being very harmful due to the fact that it can cause the process of withdrawal of monetary stimuli by the major central banks. Undoubtedly this factor can cause strong and sudden movements in the Nasdaq index and other indices, and could give a lot of volatility to the market. This is the last full week of the month. So many investors could take profit on Friday or liquidate their positions which could lead to some volatility before the close of the weekend. In the 1-hour chart above, we have traced the uptrend channel maintained by the Nasdaq. If it remains above 6/8 of a murray, the bias will continue to be bullish. On the contrary, in case of a break below the 6/8 of murray and below the 21 SMA, we expect a correction to the dynamic support of the 200 EMA around 13.280. Our recommendation is to keep buying above the SAM of 21 or if there is a technical bounce at 6/8 murray with targets at 13,593 and 13,750. Support and Resistance Levels for May 24 – 25, 2021 Resistance (3) 13,692 Resistance (2) 13,629 Resistance (1) 13,519 ---------------------------- Support (1) 13,345 Support (2) 13,281 Support (3) 13,172 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. Pound on steroids, theory or failed plan Posted: 24 May 2021 07:18 AM PDT The UK economy has experienced its deepest recession in three centuries as a result of the coronavirus crisis, as well as years of uncertainty over the decision to leave the European Union. Now that the economy is showing signs of recovery, policymakers and analysts are fantasizing about what can be achieved at a given pace. According to the country's largest business lobby, Britain needs to seize the opportunity to transform its economy through a series of changes that could cost £700 billion (roughly $990 billion) in commercial growth over the next decade. The Executive Director of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), Tony Dunker, argues that the country can recover from the blows of Brexit and COVID-19 by encouraging decarbonization and innovation and leveling its regions. Dunker stressed that failure to make bold changes now will lead to a normal business cycle, low productivity, and increased social division. Also, he believes that Britain will never have a greater opportunity to change the economy and society for the better than now: "This is the moment when we have a real chance to make big bets on how the UK economy will grow and compete." The call to action has been counted, but whether it will be taken seriously and whether the government will be willing to risk big money in large debt is not clear, but hope dies last.
What would we see in the event of drastic economic changes? The pound on steroids already managed to raise its value to the levels of 2018, but in this case, it would not be a threshold, but only the beginning of a possible path. You all understand correctly, we are talking about a change in the long-term downward trend from 2008, where at first the local maximum of 2018 - the price region of 1.4350 would be hit, and then a long process of climbing the levels of 2016, 2015, and 2014 would occur. In simple words, the lateral amplitude of 2017-2021 in the face of price values 1.1400/1.4350 would be replaced by 1.5000/1.7000. Something from a series of fiction, you say, and I will agree, but when you watch the upward trend in the period 2020 and 2021, there is nothing to be surprised about. Until all this madness has materialized, let's return to the current chart, where recently there was another attempt to resume the upward cycle, but buyers are still reacting to the 1.4180/1.4224 resistance area, which leads to a reduction in the volume of long positions. A closed cycle and divergence of trading interests lead to the fact that the quotes draw an amplitude with a scale of slightly more than 100 points (1.4100/1.4230), while the coefficient of speculative operations is still at a high level. In this situation, it is worth working based on the current situation on the trading chart, and not considering long-term cycles, since the experience of 2020 proved that working on local price changes can give much more understanding and profit than the philosophy of greatness. The amplitude fluctuation in the range of 1.4100/1.4230 will focus special attention on itself from the side of speculators, who will want to take part in the termination again. The most optimal trading tactic will be the breakout of one or another amplitude boundary based on a four-hour period.
What is happening on the chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics? Analyzing different time sectors, we see that technical instruments on the minute and hour periods have a variable Buy/Sell signal due to the price movement along the amplitude of the 1.4100/1.4230 range. The daily period, as before, is focused on an upward cycle, signaling a buy.
In terms of market dynamics, a stage of volatility stabilization is visible, which is focused on the average level. This is a fairly good signal not only in terms of market activity but also in terms of possible market changes, which will be more or less stable in the market.
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| EUR/USD Up Channel Continuation! Posted: 24 May 2021 06:54 AM PDT
EUR/USD maintains a bullish outlook as long as it stays above the uptrend line, within the up channel. It has decreased a little in the short term but it has failed to retest the uptrend line signaling that the buyers are still very strong. It has found support, demand, right below 1.2172 former high, resistance, and now is almost to reach 1.2221. Passing again above this line and above the former highs could really signal further growth. Trading Conclusion!EUR/USD moves in range only to accumulate more upside energy, to attract more buyers. It could still increase as long as it stays far above the uptrend line. Jumping above the immediate highs and reaching at least 1.2140 could be seen as a buying opportunity with an immediate upside target at 1.2300. Also, the upside line of the up-channel is seen as an upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for EUR/USD for May 24 - 25, 2021: Sell Below 1.2207 Posted: 24 May 2021 06:37 AM PDT
In the American pre-market, the EUR / USD pair is trading above the 21 SMA and above the 8/8 of murray, with a bullish bias. The pair is showing exhaustion, the last candles inside the fractal formed around 1.2240 suggests that the euro could be entering a correction phase. The key level to watch this morning is the 1.2207 area. This level acts as support. As long as the price remains above 8/8 murray, there could be upward momentum to the 1.2268 + 1/8 murray area. On the contrary, in 4-hour charts, a trade below the Sam of 21 and 8/8 of murray, the fall of the EUR / USD pair could accelerate to the support line of 7/8 of murray around 1.2146. At this 7/8 Murray level, the uptrend channel line converges. This area could offer support to the EUR / USD pair. Therefore, it would be a good opportunity to buy at these levels. Below is the dynamic support of the 200 EMA. Investor sentiment for Monday shows that there are 61.23% of investors who are selling the EUR / USD pair. This is a sign that the Euro could consolidate above 1.21 for a new upward momentum to the 1.2268 area. (+1/8). Our recommendation is to sell below 8/8 and the SAM of 21 (1.2207) or to buy if it makes a technical bounce at 7/8 (1.2143). Support and Resistance Levels for May 24 – 25, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.2271 Resistance (2) 1.2240 Resistance (1) 1.2225 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.2192 Support (2) 1.2146 Support (3) 1.2121 *********************************************************** Trading tip for EUR/USD for May 24 - 25, 2021 Sell bellow 1.2207 (SMA 21 and 8/8), with take profit at 1.2143 (7/8), stop loss above 1.2245 Buy if rebound1.2146 (7/8 of murray), with take profit at 1.2207(8/8), stop loss below 1.2110. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: plan for the US session on May 24 (analysis of morning trades) Posted: 24 May 2021 06:27 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to: In the first half of the day, I recommended paying attention to the level of 1.4171 and opening short positions from it in the continuation of the downward trend. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. In the first half of the day, we could see the bulls trying to get above the resistance of 1.4171, but nothing good came of it. The formation of a false breakout led to the formation of a signal to open short positions, which returned the market to the control of sellers. As a result, the drop was more than 60 points.
Given that the technical picture of the pair did not change in the first half of the day, the trading scenario for the US session remains relevant. I think that even after an unsuccessful attempt to get beyond 1.4171, the bulls are unlikely to give up quickly. Their initial task for the second half of the day is to break above the level of 1.4171. The breakout and its top-down test will lead to the formation of a signal to open new long positions in the continuation of the upward trend with the immediate goal of returning to the monthly maximum in the area of 1.4230, where I recommend taking the profits. If you look at the chart, you will see that just below 1.4171, there are moving averages that limit the upward potential of the pair. It is hardly possible to expect a breakthrough of the level of 1.4230 and this can happen only in the afternoon when parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report will be held and the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech. If the GBP/USD goes beyond 1.4230, the next major resistance will be seen in the area of 1.4310. In the scenario of a decline in the pound during the US session, which is more likely, since Andrew Bailey is likely to advocate maintaining an ultra-soft monetary policy, the bulls should show themselves in the area of 1.4105. The formation of a false breakout forms an excellent entry point into the continuation of the upward trend. If buyers do not show activity, the pressure on the pound may return, and the bears will continue to build a new downward channel. In this case, I do not recommend rushing to buy: the optimal scenario will be long positions for a rebound from a large low of 1.4041, based on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to: The bears have coped with the task for the first half of the day and are still fully in possession of the initiative. While trading will be conducted below the level of 1.4171, we can expect a decline in GBP/USD in the area of the lower border of the side channel 1.4105. The repeated formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.4171 and the statements of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on the topic of maintaining an ultra-soft monetary policy will significantly affect the direction of the British pound. Thus, I expect a larger decline in the pair to the area of 1.4105. A test of this area from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will collapse GBP/USD already in the area of the minimum of 1.4041, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of the pound rising above 1.4171 in the second half of the day, I advise you to postpone short positions until the maximum is updated in the area of 1.4230, from which you can open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for May 11 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. All this happened against the background of a small downward correction of the pair, which was completely recouped after good indicators on the rate of contraction of the UK economy in the 1st quarter of this year. The growth last month also gave investors hope that the British pound will continue to gain strength. As early as early summer, almost all quarantine restrictions will be lifted in the UK. Given the good rate of vaccination against coronavirus, we can assume a sharp recovery in GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2021, which will be the highest in the history of this indicator. Such news strengthens investors' confidence in the British pound and its prospects. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions have grown from the level of 52,262 to the level of 64,947. At the same time, short non-profit positions rose from 32,414 to 36,771, bringing the non-profit net position to 28,176 from 19,848 a week earlier. Last week's closing price also jumped significantly to 1.41308, against 1.39033. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market before important fundamental events. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.4171 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower limit in the area of 1.4125 will increase the pressure on the pound. Description of indicators
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| EUR/USD: plan for the US session on May 24 (analysis of morning trades) Posted: 24 May 2021 06:27 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In the first half of the day, buyers of the European currency achieved a breakdown of the level of 1.2205, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about how we should have acted. A breakout with consolidation above the resistance of 1.2205 and its reverse test from top to bottom formed a good signal for opening long positions in the European currency. However, at the time of writing, there is no particular activity on the part of the bulls, and the movement up from this level was only 10 points.
Until the moment when trading will be conducted above this range, you can bet on further strengthening of the euro in the expectation of updating to a new local high of 1.2243. This level also coincides with the upper limit of the broad side channel in which the euro has been since the middle of last week. Given that nothing interesting comes out of the fundamental statistics in the second half of the day, the bears may be able to pull the market to their side and regain control over the level of 1.2205. In this case, I recommend opening new long positions only if a false breakout is formed in the area of 1.2205, or immediately on a rebound from the lower border of the side channel 1.2163, based on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day. In case of further growth of the euro, the main target of the bulls will be a breakdown of the resistance of 1.2243. A test of this area already from top to bottom on the volume can form a new entry point into long positions in the continuation of the upward trend and in the expectation of updating the next monthly maximum in the area of 1.2294, where I recommend fixing the profits. The next target will be the level of 1.2347. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: The bears, after missing the resistance of 1.2205, are not yet willing to return to the market. Their main task for the second half of the day is to regain control of this level. Testing this area from the bottom up will lead to the formation of a good entry point in the expectation of a downward correction to the support area of 1.2163, where I recommend taking the profits. A more distant target will be the minimum of 1.2103. In the scenario of euro growth in the second half of the day after the speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System, it is best not to rush to short positions: the optimal scenario for selling will be the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2243. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from a larger local high in the area of 1.2294, based on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for May 11 showed an increase in both short and long positions. Last week, everyone was waiting for data on US inflation, which set the tone. Its sharp growth provided only temporary support to the US dollar. However, traders managed to take advantage of this moment to open long positions after the EUR/USD pair corrected downwards. Only the news that the Fed is going to raise interest rates will lead to a serious increase in the US dollar. Until then, demand for risky assets will prevail, which will help the euro to continue to update its monthly highs in the short term. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped from the level of 206,472 to the level of 223,387, while short non-profit positions rose from the level of 121,643 to the level of 129,480. This indicates an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro, but with each update of the maximum, there are more and more willing to sell. The total non-profit net position increased from the level of 84,829 to the level of 93,907. The weekly closing price also increased significantly from the level of 1.20591 to 1.21406. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2163 will lead to a decrease in the euro. A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2210 will lead to new growth of the European currency. Description of indicators
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| Cryptocurrency market analysis on May 24. Bitcoin prepares to rise to $42,000 Posted: 24 May 2021 06:24 AM PDT
The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin is absolutely clear on the higher scale. At this time, we see a classic three-wave correction structure a-b-c. If the current wave counting is correct, then at least three upward waves should follow. Two of these three waves have already been built, therefore, we can count on the construction of wave c soon. Targets for this wave can be located near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, which equates to $46,800, or at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to $42,500. But let me remind you that bitcoin is very vulnerable to the news background. If tomorrow, for example, new important information arrives on the market, this may well once again collapse the bitcoin quotes. But the wave counting now speaks of a very likely increase in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. I am not considering alternative wave counting options now, as there are no grounds for this. The mood in the cryptocurrency market remains depressing. Along with bitcoin, many other cryptocurrencies are also falling in price. Investors are not buying bitcoin now, despite its rather low cost. This means that at this time, there is no faith in a new upward trend section. In addition, even without taking into account the possible actions of Elon Musk or his new statements, which have a strong impact on the entire market, the news background is now full of other important messages that could affect bitcoin in the worst possible way. As previously mentioned, the United States is planning to introduce new tax legislation, which will require all transactions over $10,000 to be submitted to the IRS for review. Thus, many investors can opt out of cryptocurrency transactions, since they will no longer be anonymous in the literal sense of the word. The US government, led by Joe Biden, believes that many investors are using cryptocurrencies for tax evasion, so they are going to pass new legislation. Of course, it may take more than one month before this law is signed by the president and comes into force. After all, this requires that the US Congress also approve it. Nevertheless, the outlook is rather bleak. The prospects for bitcoin in China are even worse, where they are going to ban any mining of cryptocurrencies altogether. Here, too, everything is at the level of rumors and conversations. But, as they say, there is no smoke without fire. Thus, I can conclude that there is no new reason for investors to buy bitcoin so far. If these bills fail eventually, then the news background for bitcoin will dramatically improve. In the meantime, I really do not see any prospects for the main cryptocurrency above $42,000. And I am considering this option only because the wave counting speaks in its favor. Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward structure is complete. However, the movements of recent days have been so fast and strong that it will take some time for the market to clear up. The current wave counting indicates a possible increase, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around $42,500. A failed attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to another strong decline in bitcoin. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 24 May 2021 06:14 AM PDT ETH/USD is bullish again after failing to close below a support area. Technically, a rebound is natural after the amazing sell-off. It has found strong support and now it has taken out a dynamic resistance. It's trading at 2,422.06 versus 1,730 yesterday's low. Now is located right below a static resistance. Registering a valid breakout could signal broader growth. Ethereum dropped by more than 60% since May 12, 2021, but now, the rate seems poised to come back higher. ETH/USD Turned To The Upside!
I've told you in my previous analyses that the bias remains bearish as long as the price stays below the first warning line (wl1) of the descending pitchfork. ETH/USD has found support on the $1,930 level registering only a false breakdown through 1,800 psychological level and below the upper median line (uml). Taking out the weekly pivot of 2,472.27 should indicate a potential growth towards 2,800 and 3,000 levels. Being rejected by the weekly pivot or registering only a false breakout could signal that ETH/USD may drop a little towards the 2,200 - 2,000 area. Ethereum Forecast!The aggressive breakout through the warning line (wl1) signaled that the downside movement could be over. Still, we cannot exclude a temporary decline from the weekly pivot. Actually, a temporary decline could help us to catch a new upwards momentum. Personally, I would like to see consolidation and other false breakdowns below the immediate support levels before really developing a new swing higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USDJPY continues to respect key trend line support Posted: 24 May 2021 06:13 AM PDT USDJPY is trading around 109 above the support trend line and horizontal support around 108.50. Trend is still unclear. Price is moving inside the trading range of 108.50- 109.70. A sign of weakness would be if price broke below the trend line support, but it would only be confirmed if price breaks below the major support at 108.50.
Red line - trend line support Red rectangle- major resistance Green rectangle- major support Price is very close to breaking below the red support trend line. However this will not be an important sell signal if it is not followed by a decline below the blue horizontal support. On the other hand, bulls want to see price bounce off the red support trend line and continue higher towards the horizontal resistance and double top around 109.70. Breaking above this resistance would be a bullish sign. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on EURUSD for May 24, 2021 Posted: 24 May 2021 06:07 AM PDT EURUSD remains in a bullish trend as price is still inside the bullish channel. EURUSD so far made a double bottom at 1.2160 area and if resistance at 1.2240 is broken, we should then look for a move towards 1.23 and higher.
Red rectangle - resistance Blue rectangle - support EURUSD has confirmed support around 1.2150-1.2160 and resistance at recent highs of 1.2240. For the short-term trend to remain bullish, price needs to break above 1.2240. Breaking below support of 1.2150 will open the way for a bigger pull back towards 1.2050-1.20. Until the traders need to be cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on Gold for May 24, 2021 Posted: 24 May 2021 06:02 AM PDT Gold price is trading around $1,880. Trend remains bullish. Price continues to respect each higher low. Price has formed an ascending triangle. Usually such triangle patterns are broken to the upside.
Red lines- ascending triangle pattern Black line - Bearish divergence Gold price remains inside the bullish channel. However price has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is very important for the short-term trend. Price has defined through the triangle, key support and resistance levels. The resistance is at $1,890 and the support is at $1,874, As we explained in our previous analysis, with the RSI providing bearish divergence signals, even if price breaks resistance the upside is limited. Also keep in mind that triangles are usually found in the final stages of the movement so traders need to be extra cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| XRP back tests major broken resistance area. Posted: 24 May 2021 05:55 AM PDT So far the worst possible scenario for XRP has been confirmed. Price broke below the key support levels of $1,2 and $0.83 and has tested the major support, previous resistance area of $0.65-$0.75. Price today bounced off this break out area and so far we have a bullish back test of broken resistance.
Red line - support trend line XRP/USD is now trading above $0.85 again. It was only a one and a half month ago when prices were challenging the green rectangle area and were breaking out. Now price is back testing the support around this level. Bulls need to respect both the upward sloping red support trend line and the horizontal support. Bouncing off the support level is a bullish sign but it is still too early to call a major low in. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term reversal signs in Bitcoin. Posted: 24 May 2021 05:50 AM PDT Bitcoin made another pull back towards $30,000 but price did not break recent low. Instead price is now bouncing higher towards $40,000 and so far price has broken the short-term resistance trend line at $37,000.
Red line - short-term resistance Blue lines- Fibonacci retracements Bitcoin has been in a bearish short-term trend since early April and the reversal from the $58,000 level. Bitcoin has so far retraced more than 50% of the entire rise from the 2018 lows. The RSI has already provided a bullish divergence in the 4 hour chart and price is now breaking above the red resistance trend line. Bitcoin could continue higher towards the red rectangle horizontal resistance where we expect to see the most important test for bulls. So a bounce towards $47,000 is justified and not out of the question. However even if price moves towards that level, it will not mean that a major low is in. Yes support is important around $30,000, but for now we can not talk about a major low. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD bulls do not abandon ambitious plans Posted: 24 May 2021 05:47 AM PDT As hordes of shoppers prowl British stores, inflation is doubling, unemployment is falling, and business and confidence are surging to all-time highs, one can only wonder why the GBP/USD is not rallying further. Strong macroeconomic statistics increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will turn "hawkish", which, given the Fed's mantra about the temporary acceleration of consumer prices in the US, allows us to consider the issue of the direction of movement of the pound against the US dollar resolved. Still, something is holding the bulls back. Even though speculative positions in sterling are wandering near the maximum levels over the past two and a half years, the analyzed pair has room to grow. The trade-weighted pound exchange rate is currently 15% lower than the average over the past 40 years, and the GBP/USD quotes are trading 10% lower than before the referendum on the UK's membership in the EU in 2016. At the same time, the business activity took off from 60.7 to 62.0 in May, the highest level since the start of accounting in 1998, retail sales growth of 9.2%, which is twice the consensus estimate of the Reuters experts, and the acceleration of inflation from 0.7% to 1.5% suggest that the UK economy is facing an unprecedented recovery. Business Dynamics in Britain
The Bank of England predicts that UK GDP will expand by 7.25% in 2021 after the worst recession in 300 years. At the same time, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey spoke before the British parliament and claimed that the Central Bank will not allow inflation to exceed the target of 2% for a long time, which suggests that the cycle of monetary policy normalization will continue. Many in the market believe the BoE has already started it, cutting QE asset purchases from £4.4-£3.4 billion a week at its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Why, then, a powerful package of positive macroeconomic statistics and the associated expectations of monetary restriction by the Bank of England does not lead to a significant increase in GBP/USD quotes? The root is the uncertainty about the future actions of the Fed, as well as in the fact that the sterling's important trump card in the face of accelerated vaccination, most likely, has practically won back. Indeed, Britain was ahead of other countries in terms of the vaccination rate against COVID-19, so investors were entitled to expect a positive from the economy. Another thing is that other countries are starting to speed up vaccination processes, and the market is used to buying rumors and selling facts. Currency exchange rate changes and vaccination rate
I do not think that this circumstance will become an insurmountable obstacle on the way of the pound to the title of the best performer of the year among the G10 currencies. So far, it is competing with the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone and, under certain conditions, will be able to take the cup. Technically, the inability of the GBP/USD bears to implement the Anti-Turtles pattern will be evidence of their weakness. It makes sense to buy the pair above 1.417, as well as on the rebound from dynamic supports in the form of moving averages. GBP/USD, Daily chart
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| BTC analysis for May 24,.2021 - Inside days formation and potential for the breakout Posted: 24 May 2021 05:23 AM PDT Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $37.000 but I see potential for the breakout. Trading recommendation: My advice is to watch for the breakout of the inside formation to confirm further direction. Resistance is set at $43.000 Support is set at $29.000 Downside breakout of the support at $29.000 can lead BTC towards the $22.000 Upside breakout of the resistance at $43.000 can lead BTC towards the $.48.000 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD analysis for May 24 2021 - Potentia lfor the downside rotation towards 1.2165 Posted: 24 May 2021 05:17 AM PDT Technical analysis:
EUR has been trading upwards at the price of 1.2212 but there is potential exhaustion condiiton. Trading recommendation: My advice is to watch for selling opportunities if you see any bear divergence on the lower time-frames like 15/30 minutes since there is good space for the downside rotation towards 1.2165. Stochastic is showing overbought condition and fresh bear cross, which is good sign for further lower price.Resistance is set at : 1.2235 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for May 24,.2021 - Watch for potential breakout of the rising channel Posted: 24 May 2021 05:09 AM PDT Technical analysis: Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.881. Anyway, there is potential for the drop towards the $1.862. Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities in case of the downside breakout of support at $1.875. Downside targets are set at the price of $1.862 and $1.852. Based on the structure I expect another downside swing to complete bigger ABC structure. Stochastic is showing neutral condition. Resistance is set at : $1.890 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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