Forex analysis review

Forex analysis review


Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 1. The conflict in Northern Ireland may break out with a new force in October 2021.

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:11 PM PDT

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 105.4568

On Monday, May 31, the British pound also traded as calm and boring as possible. The volatility of the first trading day of the week was about 60 points, which is not much higher than the volatility of the euro/dollar pair. Thus, it is possible to draw an unambiguous conclusion that both major pairs were standing in the same place on Monday. Since the pair was standing in one place, no special changes occurred over the past day. We have long drawn traders' attention to the fact that neither the fundamental background, the macroeconomic, nor the technical one changes for the US dollar. In other words, there is no reason to expect that the US currency will suddenly start to rise in price. Based on what? We have been asking this question for a long time in the context of the growth of the British currency. However, later, it became clear that on the one hand, the dollar is under pressure from the factor of pouring trillions of dollars into the US economy, and on the other - the British pound supports the "speculative" factor. This combination leads to the fact that the pound, with a completely failed fundamental background from the UK, has become more expensive against the dollar by 2,800 points over the past 15 months. That is, about as much as the pound fell in the "Brexit period."

At the same time, the pair's quotes are not far from these same highs over the past three years, around the level of 1.4240, and do not experience any pressure. Usually, when the price approaches objectively high values in some particular period, and the bears are ready to seize the initiative, the highs are updated point-by-point. After these point workings, a sharp drop in quotes usually begins immediately. As it happens when the trend ends, a very illustrative example was recently shown to us by bitcoin. If you are interested, you can look at the daily chart. You will see that the quotes reached their absolute maximum value and were almost immediately followed by a sharp and powerful decline. When the currency pair has been trading for about two weeks near its 3-year highs, there is little chance that the trend or its next round will end near these price values. And based on this, we believe that technical factors are now also on the side of the British pound, so we expect that the upward movement will continue further in 2021.

Meanwhile, the heat on the island of Ireland, which took place a few weeks ago, seems to have subsided. Recall that the residents of the island of Ireland, that is, two countries, Northern Ireland and Ireland, one of which now remains in the European Union, and the second - in the UK, are very dissatisfied with how the "protocol on the Northern Irish border" is being implemented. Also, the island is just waiting for its moment to break out a long-standing conflict between Protestants and Catholics, between unionists and separatists. A few weeks ago, riots and protests broke out, and top officials of the participating countries even called for London to intervene. But Boris Johnson then chose not to escalate the situation. No one was killed, the demonstrations were mostly peaceful, and the complaints against the government were not so serious. However, these claims may become significantly larger in October 2021. Recall that at this time, there is a "grace period" on the Northern Irish border.

Simply put, many goods transported from the Kingdom to Northern Ireland pass simplified checks and customs controls at this time. Because of this grace period and its terms at the beginning of 2021, a conflict has already broken out between Brussels and London, as the latter decided to single-handedly change the validity of this "grace period," simply adding to its effect. Brussels immediately accused Boris Johnson of violating the Brexit agreement and threatened proceedings in the courts. It is not yet known how it ended, but in any case, in October 2021, this grace period will end. Thus, from October, strict checks on all imported goods will be applied in the ports of Northern Ireland. As the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, Edwin Poots, says, the new checks will be much tougher than those applied to goods from Russia. Poots also reports that only a few ports in Northern Ireland will have 15 thousand checks every week, more than in the largest port in Europe, Rotterdam. "We will have more checks between the UK and Northern Ireland than there are in the EU with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova," Poots said, hinting that the countries listed above are less reliable partners for the EU than the UK. Recall that all this is happening now since Northern Ireland remained part of the Customs Union. Thus, it has access to European markets, but a border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland should have appeared in exchange for this privilege. Since due to the long-standing conflict in Northern Ireland, it was impossible to allow the appearance of a physical border with neighboring Ireland, now the formal border runs along the Irish Sea, and all necessary checks are made in the ports of Northern Ireland.

The British pound is currently not experiencing any particular pressure and is waiting for the right moment to resume the upward movement calmly. In principle, the bulls can only overcome the level of Murray "6/8" - 1.4221, and then there will be much fewer problems with the further march to the north.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 78 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Tuesday, June 1, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.4132 and 1.4288. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal a new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.4191

S2 – 1.4160

S3 – 1.4130

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.4221

R2 – 1.4252

R3 – 1.4282

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with targets of 1.4221, 1.4252, and 1.4282 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders should be opened in the event of a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards with targets of 1.4130 and 1.4099. The pound now also continues to move in the flat.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 1. The speeches of Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, and the Nonfarm report are things

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:11 PM PDT

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 27.2031

On Monday, May 31, the EUR/USD currency pair traded ultra calmly and spent almost the entire day in a mega narrow channel with a width of about 25 points. Thus, trading in such conditions was complicated and made no sense at all. With daily volatility of 25 points, you can't trade much. In the middle of the American session, a more or less strong movement began. Naturally, with such movements, the technical picture has not changed. Recall that since about May 18, the pair has been mainly between 1.2160 and 1.2240. The quotes briefly left this range twice but then returned to it. Thus, we do not have a classic flat now. However, the movement of the last two weeks is highly similar to it.

All this is happening not far from the three-year highs of the euro/dollar pair, to which the bulls have to pass about 100-150 points. It is noteworthy that the upward movement has stalled, but at the same time, the downward movement has not begun. The bears are not eager to start actively moving the pair down. In addition, do not forget that the United States continues to pour trillions of dollars into its economy, continuing to inflate the money supply. Since there are more dollars globally and, in particular, in the foreign exchange market, its supply increases, but the demand does not grow. That's why the dollar is getting cheaper. Plus domestic US inflation, which also devalues the national currency. The most important thing is that there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. Both the Fed and the US Congress continue to support fiscal and monetary stimulus. At the end of last week, Joe Biden presented a draft budget for 2022, in which spending will be increased to $ 6 trillion. For example, for the 2021 fiscal year (counted from October 1 of each calendar year), Trump signed a budget of $ 2.3 trillion. That is, Biden proposes to increase spending by almost three times. The budget provides for implementing two stimulus packages for the US economy, which we have already written about earlier. We are talking about a "social" package and an "infrastructure" package. Thus, even more, money will be poured into the US economy than it is now. Well, the Fed is not going to stop the quantitative stimulus program yet, continuing to buy bonds worth at least $ 120 billion a month. Thus, from our point of view, everything is evident for the euro/dollar pair. Considering that the pair has been standing in one place for two weeks, we do not doubt that the upward movement will eventually continue.

Of course, you should always specify what exactly we mean. Any fundamental hypothesis must be confirmed on specific charts. If there is no confirmation, then the theory does not work at this time. What do we mean? Only that we consider the option with a further fall in the dollar as likely as possible. It does not mean that tomorrow the fundamental background will not change, and without technical signals and a corresponding picture, you should not rush to buy the euro and sell to the dollar. Based on our fundamental conclusions, we continue to recommend considering buy signals for the pair and looking for upward trends on the lower charts.

Unfortunately, at this time, macroeconomic statistics have an extremely weak impact on the pair's movement. Thus, in principle, we do not have to expect much from this week. We note the speech of Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, the speech of Jerome Powell on Friday, and the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. From our point of view, other macroeconomic events have minimal chances to be worked out by the markets. Moreover, it is far from certain that Lagarde and Powell will tell the markets anything important. That is, the speeches of the heads of the Fed and the ECB are potentially important events. They will become important when one or both of the chairman says something that the markets do not yet know. And there are significant problems with this recently. Over the past month, Lagarde has spoken at least ten times, and it is good if one or two of her speeches caused some market reaction. It should be understood that when the calendar shows the speech of the head of the Central Bank, it does not mean that this very head will talk about the economy or monetary policy. Or he will not completely repeat his rhetoric from the previous speech. He can talk about cryptocurrencies, such as the banking sector, the economic recovery after the pandemic, and so on. Thus, it is not evident that there will be any reaction to Lagarde and Powell's speeches at all. The most interesting thing is that the most important report on NonFarm in the United States may also cause no reaction under certain circumstances. Recall that the last report was very weak, and then the US dollar decline against both the euro and the pound. But here, for example, in March, the forecast for NonFarm was, on the contrary, greatly exceeded, but then there was no reaction from traders. Later, it became known that the value of the March Nonfarm Payrolls was revised downwards, but on the day of the publication of the report, market participants could not know about it. We want to say that at this time, it is not at all evident that this or that macroeconomic or fundamental event will be worked out at all, and at the same time, that on an empty day, the pair will not pass 100 points in any direction.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 1 is 59 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2171 and 1.2289. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down will signal a possible new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2207

S2 – 1.2146

S3 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2268

R2 – 1.2329

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.2268 and 1.2289 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair remains below the moving average with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2085. We also remind you that the pair is now moving almost flat.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bond yield and stock market, is it worth investing in growth companies?

Posted: 31 May 2021 02:21 PM PDT

Hello, dear colleagues! The situation on the US stock market looks very contradictory, and this is due to the fact that the indices, contrary to the saying: - sell May and go for a walk, did not fall in May, although such an attempt was made by them. It was renewed for June, and looking at the charts, we can assume that everything is still ahead. However, in 2021, many analysts began to pay attention to the yield of US Treasury bonds, and in this article we will analyze why this is important, from the point of view of stock markets, and what is the relationship between stocks and bonds.

In general, investors prefer to invest in stocks, because it brings a greater return. However, in case of danger, money from the stock market is actively moved to the safe haven, which is the bond market. There is no direct correlation between these markets, the relationship is somewhat more complex than it seems at first glance, and in this regard, many readers do not understand: - why is such a sharp reaction of equity capital caused by a relatively small change in the yield of the debt market? Let us examine this question from a practical and theoretical point of view.

There are several reasons for this. If we talk about 10-year bonds, they serve as a benchmark of profitability, with which they compare the income from investment and credit products, including mortgages. However, why did the 0.8% point change in the yield (Figure 1), over several months, cause such a stir in the stock market, and why were high-tech companies among the victims? This question remains a subject for reflection, but I will try to convey my logic.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that this is due to the fact that high-tech companies, considered growth companies, traditionally do not pay dividends, and their value is so high that it makes no sense to keep them in the portfolio amid the growth of the benchmark yield. In addition, take note that the size of the US debt is huge, and an increase in profitability by only a few percentage points makes it necessary to pay a lot of money for debt service, and this becomes very burdensome for the American economy, living with a hole the size of half the budget.

However, there is nothing better than to consider inter-market relations by comparing asset movement charts. Let's look at how high-tech companies, 10-year bond yields, and the S&P 500 index interact.

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Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields comparing XLK tech sector dynamics to S&P 500

As shown in Chart 1, the XLK tech sector and its affiliates outperformed the S&P 500 on the back of declining US bond yields. From January 2019 to August 2020, the yield on the 10-year bond declined from 32 points (3.2%) to 5 points. At the same time, the ratio of companies entering the high-tech sector XLK and companies entering the S&P 500 index (XLK: $ SPX), during the same period, increased from the level of 0.02 to the level of 0.035. However, as soon as bond yields began to rise, in August-September 2020, the companies included in the $ SPX index began to catch up with the high-tech sector, and the sector itself began to decline, and the XLK: $ SPX ratio moved into a range.

Let me remind readers that the XLK high-tech sector includes such companies as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp, Visa Inc, NVIDIA Corp, MasterCard Inc, PayPal, Adobe Inc, Intel Corp, Cisco Systems Inc, Salesforce.Com Inc and other monsters of the US market... This sector is 21% in the S&P 500 index and 41% in the Nasdaq 100 index.

Thus, we can assume that in the event of an increase in bond yields, the aforementioned companies in their total mass will be under pressure, and we should not invest money in them. Then we will need to find out what is more likely to happen to bond yields? We apply fundamental and technical analysis for this purpose.

Apparently, inflation in the United States will remain at elevated levels for some time. Inflation has an indirect effect on long-term bond yields, but investors cannot ignore it altogether. When inflation is higher than the yield, this leads to losses for investors. And in the current situation, we can assume that bond yields will continue to rise, at least until the Federal Reserve decides to end its quantitative stimulus programs and begins to tighten monetary conditions. There are nuances associated with the curve of the yield curve, but we will not go into them in order not to lose the meaning of what has been said.

In the technical analysis of the 10-year bond yield chart, the following can be stated: - the yield is in an increasing trend, above the level of the average annual values. The indicators of the RSI and MACD indicators also indicate an increasing trend. From above, the movement limits the level of the 4-year moving average MA200, which acts as a dynamic resistance to growth. In this context, we can assume that the current consolidation of profitability is just a stop on the way to its further growth, where the first goal is the level of 20 percentage points. In the future, if the yield growth continues, we can expect to reach the level of 25 p, which is the average value for the yield of 10-year US bonds over the past ten years.

If we consider that the weekly chart determines the dynamics of assets for a period of one to three years, we can assume that the aforementioned companies in the XLK sector will not be a good investment for at least the next year, or until their values become attractive to investors due to the correction what happened in the market. The same companies, by virtue of their weight, will limit the growth of the Nasdaq stock index and the assets of those seeking to copy it, and hence of the companies included in it, through the projection of purchases of exchange-traded funds.

It is clear that there are no rules without exceptions, but the current situation in the US market: - high prices without clear growth prospects, does not make me want to buy shares in the high-tech sector, suggesting the possibility of considering investments in companies of value included in the S&P 500 index, that is, classic companies paying dividends and representing traditional sectors of the economy.

Be careful and careful, follow the rules of money management.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 31, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Posted: 31 May 2021 12:35 PM PDT

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During April, the ongoing downside movement ( on the left side of the chart ) came to an end. The price levels around 1.1700 provided Significant BUYING Pressure. This initiated the recent uptrend towards 1.2150.

Another downside movement was expressed towards 1.1990. Breakdown below it was needed to allow one more downside visit towards 1.1840.

However, an upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 (backside of the broken trendline) which provided sufficient bearish pressure resulting in a quick downside movement towards 1.2070.

Earlier this week, another upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure.

Breakout above 1.2175 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.2250 as an initial target.

Further upside movement was expected to pursue towards the backside of the broken trend line. However, the pair has failed to do so.

On the other hand, re-closure below 1.2175 is needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish again.

Persistence below the price level of 1.2175 indicates further downside movement towards 1.2110 and 1.2070.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 31, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 31 May 2021 12:21 PM PDT

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Recently, finding significant demand around 1.2000, has allowed another bullish movement to pursue towards higher price levels ( 1.2100 - 1.2130 ) where bearish rejection was previously anticipated.

Although transient bullish breakout above this zone was temporarily expressed, the pair has failed to maintain bullish movement above 1.2130.

Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 was needed to establish a short-term downtrend.

However, the price zone around 1.1970 has provided significant bullish demand so far leading to the current bullish breakout above 1.2050 up to 1.2250.

Recently, Bullish trades were quite risky. That's why, we were waiting for signs of bearish rejection like what happened earlier last week.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2110-1.2130 remains an intraday demand zone to offer bullish support unless it gets broken to the downside ( highly expected scenario ).

Bearish re-closure below 1.2100 then 1.2050 is needed for more bearish domination. If so, Next bearish targets would be located around 1.2020 then 1.1990.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 31, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 31 May 2021 12:19 PM PDT

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In April, Bearish Persistence below 1.3800 favoured bearish decline towards the 1.3600 levels. Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline.

However, the GBPUSD pair was contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times before a temporary bullish spike could reach the price level of 1.4120.

The previous spike above 1.3880 has re-tested the backside of the depicted broken channel around 1.4015 which applied significant bearish pressure on the pair.

This turned out to be a bullish trap until another bullish breakout occurred shortly afterwards.

Moreover, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3800 (76% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.4225 where the lower limit of the recently-broken channel as well as 100% Fibonacci Level are currently located.

Please note that around the price levels of 1.4200-1.4225, Conservative traders should be considering bearish rejection and possible SELL Entries.

If so, the current bearish decline should be anticipated towards 1.4050 then 1.3950 as initial targets.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD on May 31. Pound gains strength to break through the level of 1.4240

Posted: 31 May 2021 09:07 AM PDT

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The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has not changed in recent weeks. The pound has been in the side range of 120 basis points for two weeks now. Thus, after the assumed wave e ended its formation, the correction wave structures began, which are very difficult to describe and define for any structure of the higher scale. At this time, the wave pattern leaves too many unanswered questions, so it is still recommended to wait for it to clear up. After all, one can't really trade inside the side range especially using waves. It has been repeatedly mentioned that the level of 1.4240 can help determine the markets with the further direction. The quotes have approached it several times in two weeks, but it never hit it. Thus, there was no attempt to break through this level. The current wave pattern is simple. It is absent, which gives more reason to wait for it to clear up a little. Without this, it is extremely difficult to make any forecasts.

On Monday morning, the indicated instrument was also moving without much enthusiasm due to a completely empty news background. Thus, there is generally nothing to analyze. On Tuesday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech and it can be very interesting. The fact is that the last statement of the representative of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vliege, was quite "loud" and unexpected. During the previous week, he said that a key rate surge could take place as early as next year, but if the British economy develops at a high rate, then maybe even a little earlier. There is no doubt that the markets seriously took this information, but the pound's demand did not increase. Now, Andrew Bailey can either confirm this information or deny it. It should be noted that one vote from Vliege is clearly not enough to raise the rate. The monetary committee has 9 members, so at least 5 must vote to raise it.

It can also be recalled that the Bank of England was thinking about lowering the key rate during the second half of 2020. In this case, it would become negative, as in the European Union, but it didn't come to that. If Andrew Bailey's rhetoric on Tuesday is about interest rates and monetary policy, it may give the GBP/USD pair a new boost. Everything depends on the level of 1.4240.

At this time, the wave pattern continues to be twofold, so it is suggested to wait for it to be clear. Everyone sees that the pound is moving horizontally, making it hard to be traded. At the same time, it is not even clear whether the proposed wave e is already done with its formation. Its internal wave structure looks ambiguous. It is possible to sell the instrument with a protective order above the level of 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% of the Fibonacci. But once the level of 1.4240 is broken, buying will be considered.

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The upward part of the trend, which started to form a few months ago, is taking on a quite vague form. It was mentioned above that several wave pattern options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave pattern to slightly clear up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD on May 31. Inflation data in the Eurozone

Posted: 31 May 2021 09:00 AM PDT

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On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has slightly become confused lately and is becoming vaguer. Nevertheless, no adjustments or additions are still required. Until last Friday, the wave pattern assumed a continued increase in the quotes of the instrument within the global wave 3 and within its internal wave 3. However, the amplitude of the movement of the instrument left was disappointing throughout the previous week, and trading took place in a very narrow price range. On Friday, the quotes significantly fell, but they also increased on the same day. Thus, the current wave pattern is now similar to the five-wave structure, in which the construction of wave 3 was recently completed. The wave structure within which is not completely unambiguous. However, there are five waves, so at this time, the instrument may be at the stage of building wave 4 of the same upward trend section. Therefore, I expect the quotes to continue their growth in the near future with targets located near the high of wave 5 in 5 of the previous upward trend, namely around the 1.2350 level.

The news background for this instrument was weak and unimportant on Monday. There were no economic reports on the EU and the US, so the markets could only pay attention to the indicators of individual countries of the European Union, which have much less influence on the European currency than the pan-European data. But in this case, it is necessary to look at at least the largest countries of the European Union and their data. For example, the inflation rate was released in Spain, Italy, and Germany. In general, only the Italian consumer price index was disappointing, which rose by 1.3% y-o-y only.

The German indicator sharply increased to 2.5% y/y, while Spain also did so to 2.7% y/y. However, this data had no effect on the instrument. The instrument's amplitude of movement is 11 points, which means that the distance from the low to the peak of the day at the moment is 22 points. There are no more important events on the calendar at the start of the week. On Tuesday, the consumer price index will be released throughout the European Union, and this information may affect the Euro currency and the demand for it. EU inflation is expected to accelerate to 1.9% y/y. The index of business activity in the EU manufacturing sector, as well as the unemployment rate, will also be released. As for America, there will also be something to pay attention to – the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM and Markit will be released. The first one is especially important. Thus, there will be more chances to see active movements of the EUR/USD pair today.

Based on the analysis, the quotes of the instrument are still expected to rise, although the current wave pattern is quite uncertain, as it can take on a completely different form. In any case, it is still recommended to buy the instrument with targets located around the levels of 1.2300 and 1.2340, for each MACD upward signal, but now, a further decline in quotes (which will not prevent trading on the increase, since the MACD will be directed down during it) may lead to the recognition of the end of the entire current upward trend.

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The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete. The section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and also fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new section of the upward trend continues and its first two waves have completed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for XRP/USD-(Ripple), for May 31, 2021: Buy above $0.9185

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:51 AM PDT

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At the beginning of the American session, XRP is trading at $ 1.0081 with a recovery of more than 15% which represents a daily rise. This is the largest percentage increase in one day since May 24.

Ripple has scored another significant victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), after access was denied by the SEC to the company's legal advice documents.

According to the decision published on May 30, Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn denied the SEC's motion to obtain access to any legal advice Ripple has requested or received regarding the regulatory status of XRP.

XRP is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies due to its structure and processing speed. In the medium term, we expect Ripple to remain above the key level of $ 1.00, thus there could be a strong appreciation up to levels of $ 2.35 and up to its all-time highs of $ 3.10.

In the chart, we can see that Ripple has broken a downward pressure line with a decisive candle and consolidating above the 21 SMA, with a strong bullish momentum to the 1.29 area in the short term.

However, the eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal. A technical bounce is likely to happen in the 0.9185 area in the coming few hours. A key level to watch for a new bullish momentum is an area where you can buy.

Below this zone, XRP has strong support of 0/8 of murray at the level of 0.7812. This will now be its immediate floor. Any price action in this zone will give it momentum and may be attractive to institutional buyers because of the expected climb up to the 1.30 zone in the medium term.

Support and Resistance Levels for May 31, 2021

Resistance (3) 1.1001

Resistance (2) 1.0786

Resistance (1) 1.0145

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Support (1) 0.9026

Support (2) 0.8792

Support (3) 0.8295

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ireland joins the fight against the cryptocurrency market following China

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:41 AM PDT

The bitcoin exchange rate sank over the weekend but has already managed to recover after the news that the Irish authorities began to pay "unfriendly" attention to the cryptocurrency market. According to Derville Rowland, one of the senior officials of the Central Bank of Ireland, the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin "is of serious concern to the regulator."

"Crypto assets are quite speculative, unregulated investments, and people should be aware that they can lose everything," the Central Bank's director general of financial control said in an interview.

Thus, the Central Bank of Ireland is officially joining a host of other central banks that have long sounded the alarm over cryptocurrency investments.

Let me remind you that just recently, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value and that people should only buy them if they are ready to lose their money. Last week, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda added his voice to those concerned about what is happening. He stated that bitcoin's extremely high volatility is a significant problem in this market.

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Meanwhile, China remains the main driving force that is putting pressure on bitcoin. Even though Chinese investors pay little attention to the government's measures to combat cryptocurrency trading, and the authorities have been fighting since 2017, the problem for Beijing, which is trying to curb the speculative boom in digital assets, remains quite serious.

The recent hectic sales in the cryptocurrency market have only strengthened the view that this investment direction is associated with colossal risks.

China has stepped up its restrictive measures recently after the frenzied rise in bitcoin and other tokens over the past six months has reinforced the Communist Party's longstanding concerns about the possibility of a number of scams and money laundering with cryptocurrencies, in addition to losses from individual investors. Nonetheless, problems with tracking transactions on blockchain networks remain quite serious, preventing the authorities from achieving massive compliance with the current bans.

As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it has not undergone major changes, however, buyers are not yet very active in the area of 36,200, which may lead to a larger downward correction of the trading instrument in the area of 31,000. A lot depends on the breakdown of this level, since if there is no special movement of the bulls, it is possible that bitcoin will sink to the area of 25,800 and 21,600. It will be possible to speak about the manifestation of bullish sentiments only after going beyond the large resistance of 41,100, which will open a direct road to a maximum of 46,700 and 52,000.

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Paypal

While the Chinese authorities are struggling with the ban on various types of transactions with cryptocurrencies, it became known that the payment giant Paypal is going to allow its users to transfer cryptocurrency from its platform to third-party wallets in the near future. This was recently announced by the head of the cryptocurrency operations department of Paypal. This decision was made in order to make their new platform as open as possible.

Currently, the Paypal terms for the cryptocurrency service state that you cannot send crypto assets to family or friends, or withdraw crypto assets from your internal company wallet to other external wallets. You can use cryptocurrencies only to pay for goods or services.

Paypal CEO Dan Schulman said this month that the cryptocurrency business has performed "really great results" as the company reported its best quarter ever. In April, he said that the demand for cryptocurrency was many times higher than Paypal's initial expectations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How EUR/USD trading amid public holidays in US and UK

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:41 AM PDT

Trading floors in the US and the UK are closed for public holidays. Americans are celebrating Memorial Day while the Britons are having Spring bank holiday. The fact of two national holidays is making an impact on the dynamic of trading today. EUR/USD has come to a standstill. The pair is trading quietly in a flat market at near 1.2200 within a narrow trading range. Volatility has ebbed away after market turbulence on Friday. The game ended in a draw. Both EUR and USD are taking a pause for breath awaiting another fight.

Let me remind you that at the end of the last week, the US currency asserted strength across the board. The dollar bulls perked up in light of budget proposals from the White House, the hawkish remarks by some Fed's representatives (in particular Mary C. Daly), and a record surge of the core PCE. Amid the greenback's overall advance, EUR/USD dropped to 1.2133, the lowest level in 10 days. However, in the late American session on Friday, the EUR/USD bears lost control over the market. So, traders fixed profits before leaving for the long weekend. Hence, they extinguished the downtrend.

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Besides, all the above-said fundamental factors in favor of the US dollar are rather shaky. For example, the ambitious budget draft which implies tax increases has to be approved by US lawmakers. The Republicans have already voted against the draft. The Democrats have the modest majority in Congress, especially in the Upper Chamber, so every vote matters a lot. When it comes to the record PCE growth, this is a truly important factor for the dollar bulls. The indicator of personal consumption expenditures is one of the crucial inflation criteria for the US Fed.

That's why the US dollar received a solid support for its further advance. On the other hand, the Fed's representatives could neglect this indicator like they did with a spike in the CPI. After the PCE report had been released, the central bank assured market participants that the only extreme indicator is not the cause for concern. Besides, sharp inflation acceleration comes as a result of low base effect of the last year.

Nevertheless, Mary Daly is the only Fed official who expressed hawkish rhetoric. President of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said that the regulator is at an early stage of discussing when and how they should begin scaling back massive stimulus. However, Mary Daly could not reassure the market of hawkish intentions of the Federal Reserve. The majority of the US central bank still sticks to the dovish stance rejecting the scenario of QE tapering ahead of schedule.

Such a contradictory fundamental background didn't allow EUR/USD bears to insist on the downtrend. On the other hand, EUR/USD buyers also didn't find enough arguments in favor of the uptrend. Therefore, the currency has got trapped in a narrow trading range.

Today market participants were surprised by upbeat inflation data in Germany despite ongoing lockdown measures in the largest eurozone's economy. The CPI extended the uptrend, having increased to 2.5% in May in annual terms. Consumer inflation has been growing for 5 months straight. The indicator was in the green zone month on month. The CPI stood at 0.5% on month, stronger than the expected 0.2% growth. Likewise, the HICP surpassed the forecast both on year and on month. Importantly, German macroeconomic data frequently correlates with pan-European data. So, expectations of inflation acceleration in the eurozone provide EUR with support.

This is not the only bullish factor for EUR. For your reference, Germany's economic expectations index by IFO topped the psychological level of 100 for the first time since February 2018. Business climate indicator also came in the green zone with the appropriate index at 92 points (the best score since April 2019). One more thing, the recent ZEW surveys also were beyond expectations. In particular, business sentiment index for Germany surged to 84, the strongest mark in the latest 20 years. The single European currency found support from PMIs. PMIs for France, Italy, and for the EU all logged growth, thus indicating momentum in the manufacturing and service sectors.

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From my viewpoint, EUR/USD is set to trade sideways today on occasion of the federal holiday in the US. Starting from Tuesday, the buyers will reinforce their influence. Another catalyst for the pair is ECB President Christine Lagarde who joined the dovish ranks of ECB officials. She excluded hawkish policy decisions in the coming months. However, a series of factors suggests a further uptrend. Among the factors are positive macroeconomic data in the eurozone, a brisk pace of mass vaccination, easing pandemic restrictions, lower coronavirus rates, and the split among ECB officials. On Friday, the bears made an unsuccessful attempt to conquer 1.2100. In means that long positions are still preferable despite the mixed fundamental background.

Technical analysis indicates that EUR/USD is in between the middle and upper lines of Bollinger Bands at the moment. Besides, the price is exactly on the Tenkan-sen line according to the daily chart. If the currency pair fixes above this line (i.e. above 1.2210), Ishimoku indicator will generate the bullish signal. So, all Ishimoku lines are clustered above the price. From the technical point, in this case the door will be open to the major resistance of 1.2280 (the upper line of Bollinger Bands). Hence, currently it would be a nice idea to open long positions for the near time until 1.2210 or after the price reaches the target of 1.2280.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Altcoin market stuck in narrow range amid bitcoin problems and central bank criticism: forecasts

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:16 AM PDT

The cryptocurrency market experienced another drop in bitcoin quotes last week, which dragged all the altcoins with it. Over the weekend, the situation again managed to stabilize, the players began to buy back the fall in crypto asset quotes, but in general, the situation has not changed. Major coins continue to fluctuate in their individual ranges, showing no real growth. This is indirectly evidenced by the total capitalization of the crypto market, which again rolled back to the level of $1.68 trillion.

Despite the upcoming network update and great appeal, ethereum is also stuck in the range of $2,200-$2,600. The cryptocurrency is testing the $2,585 mark from time to time, but it has never risen higher over the past few days. Judging by the horizontal charts, the ETH/USD indicators are close to this mark and, given the negative feedback from China, they can overcome it. With this development, ethereum can reach the figure of $2,800, where, having consolidated, the price can storm the mark of $3,000. This scenario is quite likely, taking into account several reasons. First, the narrow dynamics of price changes remain positive (+2%), which indicates greater support for the bulls, which outperform the bears. Secondly, the main altcoin is one of the few assets that can show a movement that differs from the general mood of the market due to its own advantages. At the same time, it is possible that ETH will not be able to gain a foothold above the $2,600 mark. In this case, the cryptocurrency will continue to fluctuate in the conditioned range of $2,200-$2,600, waiting for the momentum and accumulation of critical volume to overcome the psychological threshold.

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The Ripple token is also close to overcoming an important milestone. The cryptocurrency again crossed the $1 mark, having risen in price by 14% per day. At the same time, daily trading volumes fell to $5 billion, which can be attributed to the general decline in interest in the cryptocurrency market. In the coming days, the token will continue to move upward and try to reach the $1.2 mark, from where it can move to the more difficult $1.4 mark. However, such a scenario can only take place if the news background is relatively calm. The increased volatility of bitcoin and the entire market contributes to a very painful reaction to any manifestations of negativity. In this case, XRP/USD indicators may retest the support level around $1.

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Litecoin indicators are stuck in the swamp of their own insolvency. The cryptocurrency is quoted at around $184, having risen in price by 2% over the day. Despite the positive dynamics of price changes over the past few hours, the only reason for altcoin's optimism is the acceptable price for the entry of new players. In the coming days, the cryptocurrency will try to get to $200, but there are no prerequisites for the fact that the asset will be able to break through a difficult boundary.

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The state of the cryptocurrency market is easily explained by the news background, which has become negative on an ongoing basis. Everyone speaks out about the dangers and problems of crypto assets. For example, the CEO of JPMorgan said that he advises everyone to stay away from operations with digital coins. British bank Starling has temporarily suspended the ability for its customers to transfer deposits to cryptocurrency platforms. And rumors of tighter regulation of coins in the United States sound increasingly threatening. Criticism and isolation of the cryptocurrency market are becoming a trend that, ironically, was launched by Tesla. It was Tesla that first suspended the sale of its products for bitcoins, and also criticized the asset for excessive energy consumption. Based on this, the market will need time to adapt and turn the situation in its favor. This will take some time, and then increased volatility and uncertainty will be the companions of the market in the coming weeks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for #INDU-(Dow Jones 30), for May 31, 2021: Buy above 34,470

Posted: 31 May 2021 07:13 AM PDT

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In the early hours of the American session, rhe Dow Jones 30 industrial index, #INDU, is trading above the SMA of 21 and above the key level of 8/8 of murray located at 34,375. In our previous reviews, we indicated this zone as a strong top. Given that on Friday the Dow Jones closed above this level, the index is likely to make a strong attempt to reach the psychological level of 35,000.

Last week ended well for Wall Street stocks, with the Dow Jones closing positive on Friday at 34,617, just shy of its recent all-time highs, on continued optimism about the US economic recovery.

The Dow Jones, #INDU, on the 4-hour chart is showing signs of exhaustion below the last candles which have been very small, and drawing a small bearish channel. The 21 SMA area is likely to offer good support for a technical bounce.

On the contrary, a consolidation below 34,470 could be the reason for a correction movement to the zone of the 200 EMA located at 34,159. At this level, the 4-hour uptrend channel converges and could give a good bullish moment to the Dow Jones in the short term.

Our recommendation is to buy at the 21 SMA, and sell below 34,470 and buy back at the 200 EMA around 34,150. The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal.

Support and Resistance Levels for May 31, 2021

Resistance (3) 34,721

Resistance (2) 34,639

Resistance (1) 34,579

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Support (1) 34,436

Support (2) 34,354

Support (3) 34,247

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for XAU/USD (Gold), for May 31, 2021: Sell Below $1,909

Posted: 31 May 2021 06:48 AM PDT

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In the early American session, XAU / USD (Gold) is trading below +1/8 of murray and above the 200 EMA in 1-hour charts. The bias is bullish, but showing signs of exhaustion. It is very likely there will be a correction in the next few hours.

Most of the crosses of the currency market as well as the stock markets show small fluctuations and low volatility because trading floors in the United Kingdom and in the United States are closed for public holidays. Amid the thin market, Gold is likely to consolidate below the bearish channel of $1,909.

In daily charts, XAU / USD maintains an overall upward trend. The advance of the gold metal has slowed at the $ 1,910 barrier. A confirmation above it would point to more rises as high as $1,937. There is +2/8 of murray, an extremely overbought area.

In case of trading below the psychological level of $1,900, gold would lose upward strength, and in the short term there could be a correction to the 200 EMA around $1,886. This will be a key point, as it will give Gold a new upward momentum to break the 1,910 zone again.

However, if the price is fixed below $1,886, a downward extension could be expected so that the price could reach the level of $1,812. There is the strong support of 6/8 of murray, the zone of a technical rebound.

As long as gold trades above $1,886, the metal is expected to make further attempts to continue rising until the $1,937 zone. A change in trend could occur if gold consolidates below $1,880.

Our recommendation is to sell below $1,909, or if it consolidates below the 21 SMA around $1,903. Sell with targets at $1,886. The eagle indicator is showing signs of exhaustion and a probable bearish movement.

Support and Resistance Levels for May 31, 2021

Resistance (3) 1,935

Resistance (2) 1,919

Resistance (1) 1,911

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Support (1) 1,895

Support (2) 1,886

Support (3) 1,879

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Trading tip for XAU/USD (gold) for May 31, 2021

Sell below 1,909 (strong resistance), with take profit at 1,886 (EMA 200) stop loss above 1,915.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ether will surpass Bitcoin soon

Posted: 31 May 2021 06:44 AM PDT

There has been growing talk in the cryptocurrency community recently about the capitalization of ether and bitcoin. Many altcoin supporters say that it will surpass the world's first cryptocurrency, and there are a number of reasons for this, which we will discuss in this article. Indeed, demand for ether is gradually increasing, while confidence in bitcoin has been undermined among investors since the largest market drop in May this year.

The relative stability of ether in the overall cryptocurrency flow has once again drawn attention to the idea that the second-largest digital token could one day overtake bitcoin in market value. Bitcoin is currently more than twice the size of ether, but the gap has narrowed by about $350 billion after the biggest sell-off seen in the middle of this month. While bitcoin showed the worst drop in its history, the sale of ether was not as large as many feared. This suggests that investors are seriously reviewing their attitude to this trading instrument, especially given its recent growth.

Fans of the ether refer to the popularity of the altcoin and its platform for creating decentralized online services based on the blockchain, working on the basis of smart contracts. This platform also gave life to DeFi services. An important advantage is that the ether does not stand still, and constant updates and increasing the efficiency of the network can allow it to become the number one in the field of cryptocurrencies very soon. Innovations are not taken away from the air. Soon, an update is expected that will increase the efficiency of the platform, make it faster and reduce fees.

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Ether is likely to surpass bitcoin at some point in the future as it will be better and faster as it is filled with innovation and is of significant interest to developers," said Tegan Kline, co-founder of Edge & Node, a blockchain software company.

Even Cathie Wood, who hasn't quite decided on which side to take along with experts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., recently also highlighted the potential of ether. In a broader sense, interest in virtual currencies has long gone beyond bitcoin alone, whose share of $1.6 trillion in the total cryptocurrency value has dropped to 42% from about 70% in early 2021.

As I noted above, in a recent Goldman Sachs report, one pundit wrote that bitcoin's pioneering advantage seems fragile, adding that there is a high likelihood that it will eventually lose its crown as the dominant digital store of value in favor of another cryptocurrency, with a higher value. In this regard, ether is the most likely candidate to outperform bitcoin.

Another advantage of ether is that its annual emissions are limited, which allows us to consider it as a store of value. A shortage of ether with a gradual increase in demand will also push prices to new highs.

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As for the technical picture of ETH, a clear corridor has been drawn in which the altcoin is trying to consolidate its positions after the largest sale from the level of 4,300. As long as trading is carried out above the level of 2,260, we can talk about the accumulation of positions by large buyers. Their more active actions will become noticeable in the event of a breakout of the resistance of 2,900, which will open a direct road to a maximum of 3,400. If the pressure on ether increases and we see a breakthrough of support at 2,260 again, then most likely, at the level of 1,750 there will be only a temporary stop in ether. More active buyers will postpone their return to the market to the level of 1,540, which I advise you to focus on in the event of a decline in the trading instrument.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Hawkish rhetoric of BoE officials boosted bullish attacks

Posted: 31 May 2021 06:07 AM PDT

Unlike other world currencies that dance to the tune of US inflation, the British pound chose to ignore the fact that the index of personal consumption expenditures in April jumped to 3.6%, the base PCE - to 3.1%, which is the highest rate since the 1990s, and in normal conditions should increase the chances of the Fed winding down its quantitative easing program and raising the federal funds rate. Unfortunately, at present, the conditions are hardly ordinary.

Markets should adjust to the new reality – the Federal Reserve continues to consider the surge in inflation as a temporary phenomenon and is ready to allow the economy to overheat. At the same time, investors are well aware that even after the end of QE, the Central Bank will not leave the debt market, which will slow down the growth of their yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. How will the currencies of other countries take advantage of this? Time will tell. Sterling, for example, prefers to play its own growth drivers. Along with strong macro statistics, they should include "hawkish" notes in the speeches of Bank of England officials.

And if the speech of the outgoing Chief Economist Andy Haldane about the inflationary spiral and the return of the era of high inflation in the 1970s did not scare the markets too much, then the speech of Gertjan Vlieghe, who is usually referred to as MPC's "dove", breathed new life into the attacks of GBP/USD bulls. Vlieghe noted that the Bank of England may raise the rate in the first half of 2022 if the UK labor market manages to recover faster than previously expected.

And although this scenario is not a basic one for Vlieghe, the very fact that the "dove" spoke the language of "hawks" allowed the pound not to go on about the financial markets enchanted by the rise of PCE. Instead, GBP/USD quotes continued to consolidate in the range of 1.409-1.422, going beyond which will help clarify the pair's medium-term prospects.

Forecasts for the future dynamics of the Bank of England repo rate

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In the week of June 4, investors working with the pound will be watching closely the releases of data on UK business activity and the US labor market. A feature of the current economic situation is the gradual recovery of the service sector, which is reflected in the faster growth of the purchasing managers' index in this sector than in the industry. Given the fact that more than 80% of the UK GDP is produced by the non-manufacturing sector, this country and its currency can become the main beneficiaries of the exit from lockdowns.

As for the US employment, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to it looks transparent: weak data will not allow the Fed to taper QE earlier, which will have a positive effect on all the greenback competitors, and vice versa.

Technically, there is a combination of two patterns on the daily chart of the analyzed pair - "Three Indians" and "Splash and Shelf". The breakout of the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.409-1.422 will allow the formation of long positions. On the contrary, a successful assault on the low near 1.409 will give a reason for opening shorts.

GBP/USD, Daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Litecoin Reversal Far From Being Confirmed!

Posted: 31 May 2021 06:05 AM PDT

LTC/USD moves sideways in the short term trying to accumulate more energy before developing a bullish reversal. The pressure remains high that's why we still have to wait for confirmation before jumping into a long position.

The price rallies at the moment of writing approaching strong and critical resistance levels. Only a valid breakout above these levels could really indicate a potential broader growth. LTC/USD could increase further if the price of Bitcoin increases.

LTC/USD Symmetrical Triangle!

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Litecoin moves within a symmetrical triangle, an upside breakout could indicate more gains. The price has taken out the resistance represented by the downtrend line and now is traded at 184.61 above the weekly pivot point (173.20).

The bias remains bearish as long as it stays under the downside 50% Fibonacci line and below the triangle's resistance. A valid downside breakout from this triangle could signal a new drop towards the S1 (137.40) and down to the descending pitchfork's lower median line (LML).

Litecoin Outlook!

LTC/USD could increase in the short term after failing to reach and retest the weekly S1. Closing above 181.20 former high could signal a further growth towards the 50% Fibonacci line, around the $200 psychological level.

Jumping, closing, and stabilizing above the R1 (206.51) may announce a larger growth in the coming weeks. Its failure to retest the lower median line (LML) could announce a potential growth towards the median line (ML)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Decline May End Anytime!

Posted: 31 May 2021 06:02 AM PDT

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USD/JPY dropped in the short term after registering strong growth. Now is traded at 109.67 above 109.63 former high. The price could still increase as long as it stays above the uptrend line.

The pair failed to stabilize below the uptrend line, so the outlook remains bullish, USD/JPY could increase after ending its current decline. It could test and retest the former high and the uptrend line before resuming its growth.

Trading Conclusion!

The current decline could help us to catch a new upside movement towards the 110.88 higher high.

The upside scenario will be invalidated if the rate drops and stabilizes below the uptrend line. Coming back above 110.00 psychological level may represent a good buying opportunity. Right now is risky to buy this pair as the price could drop below the uptrend line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Investors can earn as much as 7% yearly in USDC

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:34 AM PDT

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Stablecoins, such as the USD Coin (USDC), are gaining more and more attention. Their popularity is further fueled by the engaging statements from Circle Internet Financial Ltd., one of the leading companies in the crypto world and the one who is behind USDC. According to Circle, investors can earn as much as 7% yearly in USDC, which is ten times higher than the profit on a 1-year Treasury bill. Obviously, such an offer is very attractive to investors, especially to those who are enraptured with the big gains in the crypto market. Aside from that, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are more stable than other cryptocurrencies who are prone to strong price fluctuations.

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John Griffin, a professor at the University of Texas, likened investments in Stablecoins as putting money in a bank.

Circle's program works as follows: when investors open a "digital-dollar account", the money will be converted into USDC and interest is paid in US DC. Returns are generated by Circle lending digital dollars to a network of institutional investors who are willing to pay the interest rate for access to additional funds.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said the service will be available first in the United States and Switzerland.

Other Stablecoin providers are posting similar offers. On May 26, Gemini announced that investors can get up to 7.4% profit yearly through a program called Gemini Earn. The Gemini token is also pegged to the dollar, and its reserves are held with State Street Bank and Trust, the largest financial custodian in the world.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDJPY analysis for May 31st

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:18 AM PDT

USDJPY is back testing the break out area of 109.70. At 109.70 we had a double top resistance area that was broken last week. Trend remains bullish as price continues to trade above the upward sloping trend line. So far at any pull back, price has respected both horizontal support levels and the upward sloping trend line from 1.17.

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Red line - support trend line

Red rectangle - previous resistance, now support

Blue line- horizontal support

USDJPY after breaking above 109.70 reached as high as 110.20. Support by the red trend line is at 109.10-109.20 area. Holding above this level it is essential for the short-term bullish trend we are in. For USDJPY to reach our first upside target of 110.70, we need to see price stay above the red trend line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is still trading close to $1,900 maintaining bullish trend.

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:14 AM PDT

Gold price showed some weakness signs at the end of last week but they seem to be short lived. Price made new highs above $1,910 and then turned lower towards $1,880. Price continues to trade inside the bullish channel and continues making higher highs and higher lows. So far the only bearish signal we got is a warning by the bearish RSI divergence.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Black lines - bearish divergence

Gold price has so far made a double top around $1,907-$1,912. The RSI continues making lower highs. This is not a good sign. However price has still not confirmed the trend reversal. Price made another higher low last Friday at $1,881 and as long as price is above this level, trend remains bullish. Major support by the bullish channel is found at $1,855-65. This is our first pull back target area.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD back tests broken bullish channel

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:09 AM PDT

EURUSD last week broken out of the bullish channel and reached as low as 1.2130 area. However price snapped back up very fast and is now testing the broken channel from below. Price is now back testing the channel resistance, previously support. A rejection at current levels of 1.22 will be a bearish sign.

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Black lines- bearish divergence

Blue lines- bullish channel

EURUSD is expected to pull back towards 1.2050 where we find the 38% FIbonacci retracement of the entire upward move from 1.17. Support is found at last week's low at 1.2130. Bears need to break below this level in order to resume the downward move towards 1.2050. Resistance is at 1.22-1.2210 where we find the lower channel boundary. Pushing above 1.2210 will increase chances of seeing a new higher high towards 1.23. It is important to see if the RSI provides another bearish divergence in case price makes a higher high. I continue to believe this price area around 1.22-1.23 is an area to be neutral if not bearish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis for EUR/USD on May 31, 2021

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:06 AM PDT

EUR/USD, H4 time frame:

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We will continue to analyze the situation of the EUR/USD pair.

Analyzing the four-hour time frame, a downward correction wave can be observed. It most likely takes the form of a triple combination, consisting of five sub-waves [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z]. Relative to this, it is very possible that the formation of the second wave of the bundle [X] is already done.

On the last part of the chart, it seems that the initial part of the bearish impulse wave, which will be part of the zigzag pattern, has begun its construction.

Now, let's closely look at the situation on the hourly time frame.

EUR/USD, H1 time frame:

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In the hourly time frame, it shows that the market reversed and began to decline after the completion of the upward impulse wave (C), which finished forming the large wave of the bundle [X].

It is possible that the descending wave 1 in the form of a five-wave impulse, as well as the first two parts of the bullish correction, is fully completed today.

The ascending correction 2 can take a simple form and have a zigzag structure [A]-[B]-[C]. As mentioned above, the first two sub-waves of this zigzag already look finished. Thus, the price may rise in the final impulse [C], that is, to the level of 1.2235 in the near future. At this level, the magnitude of wave 2 will be 76.4% of wave 1. This is a common coefficient in zigzags.

Currently, one can consider opening long positions with target profit at the specified level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil to hit $ 80 by the end of the year

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:04 AM PDT

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Many expect OPEC to stick with its previously agreed production schedule, which means that from July 2021 to April 2022, the volume of production cut will be 5.8 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, output will increase by 2.1 million bpd in July, thanks to stable oil prices.

And even though the group closely monitors the oil market, unexpected scenarios may still occur. But the possible increase in Iranian oil should not affect the market and OPEC's cuts, because the expected surge in demand will offset excess supply.

In short, OPEC plans will not be disrupted because demand is recovering much faster than expected. And according to projections, demand will reach as high as 6 million bpd in the second half of 2021.

Considering this, Goldman Sachs said Brent will hit $ 80 by the end of the year.

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The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data also reports that long positions in crude rose 636,998, which is 11,939 higher than the previous week.

Production in other countries (not members of OPEC) is also recovering, and is expected to grow by 620,000 barrels per day.

And by 2022, output is projected to shoot up, especially in the United States, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. Meanwhile, production will decline in UK, Columbia, Malaysia and Argentina.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP gives its first signs of strength

Posted: 31 May 2021 05:03 AM PDT

XRP has broken out of the short-term bearish channel and is now challenging once again the major short-term resistance area of $1.06. As long as price is below this level there is still danger of moving lower towards $0.65.

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Red lines- bearish channel

Blue lines- Fibonacci retracements

Red rectangle- resistance

XRP/USD has reversed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and bulls are now trying to break above key short-term resistance depicted by the red rectangle area. Breaking above $1.06 will open the way for a push higher towards $1.20 at first and maybe towards $1.45. Support at $0.78 is key. Breaking below it will open the way for a move towards $0.65.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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