Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for EUR/USD on June 28, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on June 28, 2021
- Forecast for USD/JPY on June 28, 2021
- EUR/USD. Hot days are coming: European inflation, ISM index, Nonfarm
- EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. The hopes of the US currency are associated with a strong Nonfarm Payrolls report next
| Forecast for EUR/USD on June 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Jun 2021 09:03 PM PDT EUR/USD Last Friday, the euro grew by 44 points, which made it possible for it to reach the signal level of 1.1970 and sharply fall from it. As a result, the euro showed a daily rise of 3 points. Such a daily spike probably indicates a price reversal. The first target is the previously reached level of 1.1855. Going beyond it opens the second target at 1.1705.
A divergence with the price has formed on the 4-hour Marlin chart. The current quote is attacking the MACD line and breaking it will mean that Friday's price exit above it is false. Falling below the signal level of 1.1912 opens the first target at 1.1855.
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| Forecast for AUD/USD on June 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Jun 2021 08:57 PM PDT AUD/USD While the European currency market is neutral, the Australian dollar is trying to grow following the commodity market; oil is up 0.35%, iron ore is up 1.14% to $ 216.45 per ton.
If this trend continues, we can expect the aussie to overcome the Friday high at 0.7618. In this case, the price may continue to rise to the target level of 0.7647. Failure to rise above Friday's high will pull the price back to the embedded price channel line on the daily chart at 0.7542.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price develops above the MACD indicator line, without breaking away from it, the Marlin oscillator is moving down. Visually, the price moves below the MACD line (0.7567) at the moment, while the Marlin oscillator will go into the negative area. Such a synchronous signal will amplify the downward momentum. Not only will the 0.7542 target open up, but there is a high probability that the price could surpass it too. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for USD/JPY on June 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Jun 2021 08:51 PM PDT USD/JPY The global stock market continues to experience difficulties in rising. Last Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, while the tech Nasdaq fell -0.06%. This morning, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index is losing -0.07%, while the Chinese China A50 is -0.24%. The Japanese stock market is at the levels of the first week of February and the growth of the USD/JPY pair has been under the threat of a breakdown for a month now.
On the daily chart, the double price divergence with the Marlin oscillator is increasing. The nearest support at 110.52, formed by the price channel line and the MACD indicator line, can be overcome with a 65% probability and the target level of 109.80 will open - the high on May 13. The remaining 35% is due to the breakdown of the double divergence and further growth to 111.39.
There is a strong divergence on the four-hour time scale, Marlin is already in the negative zone, but the price is even higher than the indicator lines. These indicator lines are near the support at 110.52, which also increases the significance of this level. We follow the development of events. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Hot days are coming: European inflation, ISM index, Nonfarm Posted: 27 Jun 2021 04:04 AM PDT The previous trading week passed under the sign of uncertainty. The EUR/USD bears won back the results of the June Federal Reserve meeting and, in fact, lost control over the pair. In turn, the bulls were only able to develop the correction, but did not return even a part of the lost positions. Let me remind you that after the announcement of the results of the last Fed meeting, the pair fell by more than 300 points, dropping from 1.2155 to an annual low of 1.1844. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish rhetoric in Congress cooled the ardor of dollar bulls, but at the same time EUR/USD bulls could not even test the 20th figure. Traders approached the 1.2000 target on the last day of the trading week, but only due to the "Friday factor", as many market participants closed short positions ahead of the weekend. In general, traders traded in the range of 1.1850-1.1950 throughout the five-day period, occasionally exceeding the upper border of the price range. The contradictory fundamental background did not allow market participants to take one of the sides. The Fed, on the one hand, announced several rounds of interest rate hikes - but, however, only in 2023. But the fate of the stimulus program, according to representatives of the Fed (including Powell), will depend on the incoming data. That is why the coming week may provoke increased volatility for the pair, since very important releases will be published in the next five days, including key data on the US labor market. The European currency will also react to its reports. However, first things first.
So, the economic calendar is almost completely empty on Monday, June 28: the import price index will be published in Germany, which is an early signal of a change in inflation trends. Experts expect minimal gains in this indicator, but traders are likely to ignore this release. The US consumer confidence indicator will be published during the US session on Tuesday. Downward dynamics are expected here again. The indicator showed a consistent upward trend over four months, reaching 117.9 points in April. In May, it showed a more modest result, coming out at around 117.2. In June, the indicator should slow down to 116.3 points. However, this release is likely to have a short-term impact on EUR/USD. But the German inflation, which will be published during the European session on Tuesday, may provoke a certain volatility. German inflation in May surprised with rather strong numbers, despite the continuing quarantine restrictions in Germany. In annual terms, the general consumer price index continued its upward trend, rising to 2.5% in May (the indicator has been growing consistently over the past five months). On a monthly basis, the indicator also entered the green zone, being at the level of 0.5% (with the forecast of growth up to 0.2%). The harmonized consumer price index similarly exceeded the forecasted values - both in monthly and annual terms. According to preliminary forecasts, June figures will also support the euro. It is worth noting here that the German report quite often correlates with the pan-European data, so the corresponding expectations will support the single currency. European inflation will be published literally the next day - Wednesday, June 30. This is the most important release for the euro, which will be able to return the EUR/USD pair to the area of 20 figures, or vice versa - it will return it to the lower border of the 1.1850-1.1950 range. The consumer price index in the eurozone rose to 2% in May, exceeding the forecasted values. This indicator has been demonstrating positive dynamics for the third consecutive month. For the first time in the last three months, the bar index stopped its decline and showed growth again. Positive dynamics of these indicators is also expected in June: the general index should rise to 2.3%, core inflation should accelerate to 1.4%. If the real values coincide with the forecast, the euro will receive significant support throughout the market, even against the dollar. On Thursday, July 1, traders of the pair will turn their focus on the US ISM manufacturing index, which may weaken the position of the dollar bulls. This indicator grew from January to March, supporting the greenback. But the index showed a downward trend in April and May, dropping from 64 points to 60 points. A slight decline is also expected in June - to 59.5 points. The trend is important here, which (so far) is not in favor of the US dollar. Nevertheless, the most important event of the week will be the Nonfarm payrolls report, which will be published on Friday, July 2. It is worth recalling here that the key components of the previous release were significantly better than forecasts. The US unemployment rate for the first time since March last year fell below 6 percent (the indicator entered the green zone, reaching the target of 5.8%), and the average hourly wages jumped to 2% (in annual terms). According to the general forecast, June Nonfarm will also show strong results. The employment growth rate should rise to 650,000, and the level of average hourly wages on an annualized basis may rise to almost 3 percent. The unemployment rate, in turn, should drop to 5.5%. So, a busy and rather volatile trading week awaits us, which will allow EUR/USD traders to leave the 1.1850-1.1950 range. In this case, the euro is in a more advantageous position, since the growth of key macroeconomic indicators (primarily, we are talking about inflation) can strengthen the position of the hawkish wing of the European Central Bank. At the same time, the dollar is driven into a kind of trap: The US Nonfarm should come out better than expected (with strong enough forecast values) to provoke a dollar rally. The American economy should "keep the bar high", in line with the corresponding expectations of dollar bulls, experts and members of the Fed. Any deviation from the set tempo will be interpreted against the greenback. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Jun 2021 03:49 AM PDT
The European currency, paired with the US dollar, tried to adjust last week. However, it can't be said that it succeeded. After the results of the Fed meeting were summed up, the pair's quotes fell by 280 points. During the week that ended, the European currency managed to rise in price by 100 points. If we take the entire last round of the downward movement, it is 420 points, and the correction is still the same 100 points. Thus, it is not yet possible to conclude that the upward correction is completed. Most likely, it will continue next week. At the same time, there are generally significant doubts that the US currency will continue its growth. We have already said that only the global technical factor speaks in favor of further dollar growth. It is a possible new round of corrective movement to the previous local minimum within the framework of an upward trend that has been going on for a year and a half. Thus, the dollar can count on further strengthening. However, there are still few fundamental factors that could support it for a long distance. Even after the results of the ECB and Fed meetings were summed up, the overall picture of the situation has not changed. No changes were made to the monetary policy in the European Union and the United States. The only change that can be noted is the phrase of Jerome Powell that the Fed "may start discussing the curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program in the near future." However, it is unknown when this discussion will begin, and it is unknown how it will end. Yes, the probability of tightening monetary policy in America is growing, but again, this is not the immediate prospect. It is not going to happen in the coming months. Therefore, in principle, it is quite difficult to rely on the judgment that someday the Fed will raise the rate and stop printing money in hundreds of billions when buying US currency. That is why we still do not see any notable prospects for the US currency. The fact that the American economy is recovering much faster than the European one is offset by the fact that America is pouring much more money into stimulating the economy, which inflates the money supply and provokes a strong increase in inflation. Thus, from our perspective, the US currency can expect maximum strengthening to the 17th level or so. What should I pay attention to next week? First, it should be noted right away that macroeconomic statistics quite often continue to be ignored by the markets. Secondly, in recent weeks, the US dollar has been strengthening not because of macroeconomic statistics. Third, it isn't easy to expect any new information from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde that could affect the pair's movement globally. Thus, all the fundamental and macroeconomic events of the coming week will continue to have only a local impact on the euro/dollar pair, if they have it at all. On Monday and Tuesday, no important publications are planned in the European Union and the States. On Wednesday, a fairly important inflation report will be published in the EU, and a report from ADP on changes in the number of employees in the private sector will be published in the US. On Thursday, the unemployment rate is in the EU, and the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector is in the US. From our perspective, all these reports will be ignored by the market, or they will provoke a minimal reaction of 20-30 points. The fact is that business activity in both the United States and the EU is already high after the crisis. The unemployment rate is not the most important macroeconomic indicator. The ADP report is processed by the markets very selectively, and everything here will depend on the discrepancy between the forecast value and the actual one. Inflation in the EU is still quite low compared to American inflation. Of course, you should not completely lose sight of these publications. Still, under certain conditions, traders can work them out. However, the probability of this is small. Only on Friday, really important reports will be released in the States, or rather a report. We are talking about Nonfarm Payrolls, which will now attract even more attention since Jerome Powell made it clear in his recent speeches that the Fed is most interested in the recovery of the labor market right now, and it is ready to ignore inflation. The last two reports on Nonfarm turned out to be weaker than forecasts, so now the indicator can still meet traders' expectations. Thus, we believe that if we expect a strong movement, then next Friday, reports on unemployment and average wages will traditionally be ignored. ECB President Christine Lagarde is also scheduled to speak on Tuesday and Thursday, but we have already said that it is unlikely that she will please the markets with any new information. Thus, it is likely that 3 out of 5 trading days next week will again be held in minimal volatility. As this can be seen in the illustration below, since last Friday, the pair's quotes stood in one place, and the day's volatility was about 50 points.
Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour chart is very clear. A new round of downward movement has begun within the framework of an upward trend, but the pair has been desperately trying to correct in the last few days. At the moment, it is located slightly above the critical line and slightly below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the prospects for the continuation of the upward correction are slightly higher than for the resumption of the downward movement. Also, there is almost a flat on the 4-hour timeframe, and the Ichimoku indicator lines do not work well in the flat. Therefore, it may not be the worst option to trade next week on the hourly timeframe and below. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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