Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on July 15. Analysis of the previous review and the pair's trajectory on Thursday
- Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on July 15. Analysis of the previous review and the pair's trajectory on Thursday
- Microsoft will create a project based on Bitcoin's fundamental features
- Jack Dorsey and his company Square are developing an innovative Bitcoin wallet
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on July 15. Analysis of Wednesday. Getting ready for Thursday
- EUR/USD Two Reversal Patterns!
- GBP/USD Above Trigger Line!
- July 14, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- July 14, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- July 14, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14. The dollar can no longer rise. Markets await Jerome Powell's speech to Congress
- Bitcoin and inflation protection: a controversial issue
- Trend line analysis on USDJPY
- Trading Signal for Ethereum ETH/USD for July 14 - 15, 2021: Buy above $1,875
- EURUSD bounces again from buy area.
- Short-term technical analysis on Gold for July 14, 2021.
- Gold breaks ties
- GBP/USD: plan for the US session on July 14 (analysis of morning deals).
- Trading Signal for NASDAQ #NDX for July 14 - 15, 2021: Key level 14,899
- Bitcoin & Ethereum: Large investors continue to work in the cryptocurrency market
- EUR/USD: plan for the US session on July 14 (analysis of morning deals). The euro is regaining its position after yesterday's
- Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14 (COT report). Inflation may force the Fed to stop the QE program in the near future.
- Forecast for GBP/USD on July 14 (COT report). American and British inflation continues to rise.
- Wave analysis for EUR/USD on July 14, 2021
- Technical analysis and recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 14
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:57 PM PDT GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair also moved in one direction on July 14 - up. However, at the same time, a whole mass of signals was formed, a good half of which should be filtered out. However, more on that later. So far, it should be noted that the upward movement began in the very morning, when the inflation report was published in the UK, which, like in the US, accelerated even more and exceeded analysts' forecasts. True, in Britain, the consumer price index rose to only 2.5% y/y, and in the United States - to 5.4%. Nevertheless, such numbers have not been seen in Britain for a very long time. Thus, it seems that the British pound rose on the same market assumptions about a faster rollback of the quantitative stimulus program as the US dollar a day earlier. One way or another, but the pound/dollar pair continues to trade in the "swing" mode, that is, constantly changing the direction of movement, which is especially clearly seen on the hourly timeframe. Now let's analyze all the trading signals of the past day. In principle, signals began to form immediately in the European session. The first of them - a breakthrough of the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines should have been filtered out, since it was formed exactly at the time when the British inflation report was published. However, you shouldn't be upset because of the missed signal, because after that the price bounced off Senkou Span B three more times. In parallel, having managed to rebound from the nearest target level of 1.3859. Thus, a long position should be opened at the second buy signal, close it near the level of 1.3859, immediately open a short position, close them near Senkou Span B and immediately open new longs. These three trades brought in a profit of about 26 points. The last deal is especially important, since the price surpassed the 1.3859 level during its development, but it could not reach the next target level of 1.3898 and turned down. And by the middle of the US trading session, when we advised you to manually close all trades, the price went below the level of 1.3859, so a long position should have been manually closed anyway. Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 15. Will Jerome Powell's opinion on QE change? GBP/USD 1H
There is still no trend line or channel on the hourly timeframe, and the pound's movement looks like a "swing". There is no trend, so trading on the hourly timeframe is extremely difficult right now. Since the price surpassed the previous local high (1.3898) a couple of days ago, there were certain hopes that the upward movement will continue. However, we see that the bulls have not yet managed to develop this movement. Overall, the pound/dollar pair is still the most confusing pair at this time. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859 and 1.3898. Senkou Span B (1.3816) and Kijun-sen (1.3825) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. The UK will publish reports on unemployment, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, changes in average earnings on Thursday. Meanwhile, we have a report on claims for unemployment benefits and a speech by Jerome Powell in the US. We believe that none of these events will be capable of causing a serious reaction from traders. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair. COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 35 points during the last reporting week (June 29-July 5). However, Friday's upward gains in the British currency were not included in the latest published Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Thus, we cannot yet know if the mood of the major players has become more bullish over the past few trading days. As a reminder, COT reports are released with a three-day delay. However, even according to the latest published COT report, we can conclude that the group of "non-commercial" traders has become more bullish. Professional traders opened almost 5,000 buy contracts (longs) and almost 2,000 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position of this group of traders increased by 3,000 contracts. The total number of open purchase contracts also exceeds the number of sales contracts. Therefore, the British currency, according to COT reports, has an excellent chance of resuming the upward trend. Moreover, global technical and fundamental factors also speak in favor of this. The indicators are now showing complete uncertainty. On the one hand, the green and red lines (net positions of the "non-commercial" and "commercial" groups) are approaching each other, which indicates the end of the trend. On the other hand, when the pound was actively growing, these lines did not move away from each other, which suggests the presence of external important factors that affect the supply and demand of the dollar and the pound. The second indicator shows that the net position of professional traders has been declining since March, but their mood is still bullish. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:57 PM PDT EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded quite well on Wednesday, given the fact that the price was moving in one direction for almost the entire day. However, there are several nuances here. Firstly, despite such one-way traffic, quite a lot of signals were generated during the day, not all of which should have been worked out. Secondly, one should clearly understand why the pair went up today. Perhaps it was just a round of upward movement, not based on anything. Perhaps this move was triggered by the US inflation report from the day before yesterday. As we have already said, rising inflation is a negative factor for the currency, but nevertheless, the US dollar showed growth the day before yesterday. In general, one way or another, but the EUR/USD pair was in an upward movement yesterday. Let's now see how you should have traded. The first signal - to buy - was formed at the opening of the European session - surpassing the extremum level of 1.1784. Here it was possible to open long positions, but the upward movement did not immediately continue. The price returned to the 1.1784 level three times and bounced off it thrice as well. Unfortunately, traders could interpret the last third rebound as a sell signal, since the price has gone far enough below this level. And so, it was a long position that was closed at a loss of 12 points, short positions were opened instead, and they also closed at a loss, as the price almost immediately returned to the area above the level of 1.1784 (another 17 points loss). The beginning of the day turned out to be very bad. As a result, the last signal had to be interpreted as a false breakout of the level of 1.1784, so it was necessary to open long positions again. After that, a one-way movement was already observed, within which the price rose to the critical line and immediately overcame it. Thus, a long position brought traders at least 36 points of profit, and given the immediate breaking of the Kijun-sen line, the deal could have been held further and manually closed, which would have brought even more profit. Thus, Wednesday ended up with a small profit. Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 15. Will Jerome Powell's opinion on QE change? EUR/USD 1H
The euro-dollar pair began to jump from side to side on the hourly timeframe, while maintaining a downward trend, which is currently not supported by either the trend line or the channel. Thus, the situation is not very favorable. One could clearly see that the price often changes the direction of movement and is practically in the same price range. The pair managed to decline by only 175 points for almost a month now, although formally the downward trend continues. From our point of view, traders are preparing for new powerful purchases of the euro. On Thursday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1772, 1.1807, 1.1881, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1863) and Kijun-sen (1.1830) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no major events or publications scheduled in the European Union on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the US Congress in the evening. However, this will be the second time in Congress in two days, just before a different committee. Thus, the text of the Fed's report is unlikely to change. And all the most interesting information will become known in the next few hours. The United States will also publish a report on claims for unemployment benefits, but we believe that there will be no reaction to it. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair. COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 100 points during the last reporting week (June 29-July 5). Thus, one could expect to see a new weakening of the bullish sentiment of professional players in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This is exactly what we saw in the latest report that was released on Friday. The number of buy contracts (longs) for the reporting week increased by 4,000, and the number of sell contracts (shorts) - by 16.5 thousand. Thus, the net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 12.5 thousand. Therefore, at the moment we can say that market participants continue to get rid of long positions and build up shorts. Therefore, it is possible to predict a further fall in the European currency. But not everything is so simple. We have already said that the movements of the pair over the past few months look just like a correction against the global upward trend. In addition, the US government and the Fed continue to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy, inflating the money supply and stimulating inflation. Therefore, big players can get rid of euro positions, but at the same time the dollar supply in the markets will grow, which may lead to the opposite effect. A situation may arise in which the net position of professional players on the euro will decline, while the euro currency will grow. Actually, in October-November-December 2020, this is exactly what happened. The green line of the first indicator (net position of the non-commercial group) was decreasing, while the euro was growing. Thus, we recommend that traders pay more attention to technical analysis. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Microsoft will create a project based on Bitcoin's fundamental features Posted: 14 Jul 2021 05:10 PM PDT
Microsoft will create a project that will be based on Bitcoin's every fundamental feature. The company wants to create a project that will be completely unique and decentralized and will have an identical common database that is used to record Bitcoin transactions, better known as the blockchain. This project will be called ION, where decentralized identifiers will be used, which can be an archived motive force for our work on the Internet. If Bitcoin, being completely decentralized, carries significant importance, since it is beyond the control of the government and centralized institutions, this ION project will carry the same importance, but this will already concern online identity. Microsoft wants to create a technology that will help protect the user's ownership rights to their virtual identities since the current era, which is the 21st century, has full Internet accessibility. This means that the Internet has full control over the online profile accounts of various users. The head of the project, Daniel Buechner, was at the very important congress in Miami for Bitcoin with various crypto enthusiasts, such as Michael Saylor, Jack Dorsey, and others. Microsoft wants to create this project on the Bitcoin blockchain technology to create unique digital identifiers. To authenticate identity on the Internet, users will no longer have to suffer from passwords, cell numbers, and mailboxes to confirm and verify their identity. The project will be fully launched on the main Bitcoin network. Therefore, ION will become completely decentralized and secure, it will not rely on centralized objects, validators, or different protocols. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Jack Dorsey and his company Square are developing an innovative Bitcoin wallet Posted: 14 Jul 2021 12:41 PM PDT
Jack Dorsey said in his social networks that his company Square is developing an innovative wallet for storing bitcoins. This is done in order to make bitcoin even more popular, and also so that storing the number one cryptocurrency would no longer be difficult. Jack Dorsey is very excited about this project and wants all Twitter users, as well as those who store or plan to store bitcoin, to be constantly active, communicating with him, and saying their wishes in terms of what they would like to see this wallet for storing cryptocurrency. Especially for this, the Square team is recruiting many different developers from around the world to develop the most innovative and secure wallet. Most likely, a cash app will be integrated into the bitcoin wallet, and it will be 100% protected from hacking. Now in the era of innovative technologies, many people use the Internet through their mobile gadgets, Dorsey and his company want to make it so that it is convenient to use it on various gadgets without any problems. Cash up payment applications will be integrated into it, which will allow you to use this innovation. Dorsey has long been an ardent supporter of bitcoin and one of its main engines in the mainstream. Along with Michael Saylor, Jack Dorsey is constantly looking for ways and ways to improve mining and how to make bitcoin more popular. Recently, Dorsey said that he could even leave the post of CEO of Twitter and engage in an exceptional improvement of bitcoin in terms of its technology and environmental friendliness. Creating such a wallet can significantly simplify the storage of the number one cryptocurrency, which will make bitcoin even more popular for both inveterate holders and various small players in the market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 12:41 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair mainly moved upwards on Wednesday, but in the middle of the European trading session there was a segment during which the price jumped up and down, causing a lot of trouble and problems for traders. But first things first. We should start with the fact that the European Union published a report on industrial production today, which turned out to be much worse than analysts' forecasts. Yesterday we said that this report is unlikely to have any impact on the euro/dollar pair. And so it happened. Traders did not even notice this report. Thus, the most important and significant event of the day was Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress, which began a couple of hours ago. Based on the pair's movement in the past few hours, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has not reported anything important to Congress. Or, nothing is known about this yet, since it is unlikely that Powell's speech is being broadcast live from Congress. Thus, it is likely that what Powell said will be known in the morning. Then you should expect a reaction from traders. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Four signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe during the day, which should have attracted the attention of novice traders. The first signal, like the second, like the third, formed around the level of 1.1784, which is losing its relevance from today. However, the pair initially overcame it, then bounced off it, and then made a false breakout, which novice traders could falsely take as a sell signal. Thus, the open deal to buy at the very beginning of the European session did not bring any profit, but only losses worth 13 points. Also, the second short position became unprofitable, which newbies could open since the quotes settled below the level of 1.1784. The loss on it was worth 16 points. Unfortunately, this happens. However, the price went beyond the level of 1.1784 again, which should have been worked out with a long position, which eventually covered all the losses from the previous two deals. The price moved up by more than 40 points in total, which was enough for the long position to be closed by Take Profit. Thus, at the end of the day, beginners could even make a small profit, although the morning trade was certainly terrible. Trading tips for Thursday: The upward trend was canceled on the 30-minute timeframe, but the new one was not formed. Thus, the pair can continue to move in an absolutely random manner in the near future, that is, in different directions without any logic. At this time, traders do not have a clear trading strategy, so the pair can be thrown from side to side. Volatility can be high due to strong macroeconomic or fundamental background and weak if news and publications are not available. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1772, 1.1807, 1.1851 and 1.1880. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. There will be no important publications or events in the European Union on Thursday, meanwhile, Jerome Powell's second speech in Congress will take place in the United States. In general, we advise you to trace the essence of Powell's speech tomorrow morning, as the Europeans and Americans can work it out during Thursday. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD Two Reversal Patterns! Posted: 14 Jul 2021 11:28 AM PDT EUR/USD has found strong support again and now it seems determined to come back higher. The pair will increase if the US Dollar Index extends and resumes its decline. The greenback has decreased even if the US PPI and Core PPI have reported better than expected data today. On the other hand, the Eurozone Industrial Production dropped by 1.0%, more versus 0.3% expected. The pair dropped only because the DXY dropped. Unfortunately, the US inflation growth is bad for the USD. EUR/USD Double Bottom?
EUR/USD has found support again on the pattern's downside line. It has failed to reach the 88.6% retracement level and now is located above the downtrend line. Moreover, it has printed also something like a Double Bottom pattern, but this reversal pattern could be confirmed only by a valid breakout above the 1.1881 level. Making a new higher high could validate the Double Bottom and the Falling Wedge patterns. Forecast!EUR/USD could slip lower after today's rally. A temporary decline could help us to catch a new upwards movement. It could come back to test and retest the broken levels before jumping higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 11:26 AM PDT GBP/USD has managed to increase today and to erase some of yesterday's losses. It's back above the weekly pivot point (1.3849), but we still need confirmation before considering going long. The Pound has received a helping hand from the UK inflation data. The CPI increased by 2.5%, while the Core CPI rose by 2.3%. GBP/USD has slipped lower in the last hours but this could be only a temporary decline. GBP/USD Upside Continuation!
Technically, it has failed to stay under the trigger line and below the warning line (wl1). When the price makes a valid breakout above a trigger line, the pair could move in the breakout direction. Its failure to reach the S1 signaled a potential throwback. Still, only a valid breakout above the 1.3909 could really activate potential larger growth. Outlook!An upwards continuation could be confirmed and activated by a breakout above the 1.3909 level. Technically, GBP/USD could approach and each 1.4001 high after failing to reach the descending pitchfork's median line (ml). The upside scenario could be invalidated only if the pair drops again under the trigger line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| July 14, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 11:03 AM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand, Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. However, the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times until now. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.4000 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.4250 where Conservative traders expected much selling pressure and valid SELL Entries. Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.3880 then 1.3800 where the GBPU/USD pair found considerable bullish support earlier last month. Recently, the price level of 1.3800 has been re-visited few times. This visit should be watched for price action as Bearish breakout below which enables more bearish decline towards 1.3670. On the other hand, the price zone of 1.4060-1.4100 now stands as a prominent supply zone to be watched upon any upcoming bullish pullback for bearish rejection and a valid sell entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| July 14, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 11:02 AM PDT
Recently, finding significant demand around 1.2000, has allowed another bullish movement to pursue towards higher price levels ( 1.2100 - 1.2130 ) which failed to apply sufficient bearish pressure on the pair. Transient bullish breakout above this zone was temporarily expressed. However, the pair has failed to maintain intermediate-term bullish movement above 1.2130. On the other hand, Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 was needed to establish a short-term downtrend. Shortly after, Bearish re-closure below 1.2100 then 1.2050 allowed more bearish domination. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1850 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1780. Currently, any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.1850 then 1.1800 will probably enable further bearish decline towards 1.1750 and 1.1700 if sufficient bearish pressure is applied. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| July 14, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 11:01 AM PDT
During April, the ongoing downside movement ( on the left side of the chart ) came to an end. The price levels around 1.1700 provided Significant BUYING Pressure. This initiated the recent uptrend towards 1.2150. Another downside movement was expressed towards 1.1990. Breakdown below it was needed to allow one more downside visit towards 1.1840. However, an upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 (backside of the broken trendline) which provided sufficient bearish pressure resulting in a quick downside movement towards 1.2070. Earlier last week, another upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure. Breakout above 1.2175 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.2250 as an initial target. Further upside movement was expected to pursue towards the backside of the broken trend line. However, the pair has failed to do so. On the other hand, re-closure below 1.2175 was needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish again. Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where some bullish recovery has originated. On the other hand, upside pullback towards 1.1990 should be watched for SELLING Pressure with special attention if the price level of 1.1990 is bypassed as this indicates further upside movement towards 1.2100. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 10:05 AM PDT
The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains rather ambiguous. A new departure of quotes from the lows reached again allows us to assume that the downward wave c, and with it, the entire downward trend is over. Only now the supposed wave c has taken a five-wave form, as I assumed yesterday. Thus, the fact that the instrument continues to move mainly with the help of corrective wave sets continues to make it very difficult to work with it. It is very difficult even to react to very frequent instrument reversals and very short waves. Thus, the current wave counting now more or less accurately answers the question of what can be expected from the Euro/Dollar instrument now. However, this does not make it easier to work with the pair. Within wave c, five waves are visible, so if everything is according to the classics, then from the current positions the construction of a new upward trend section will begin, possibly again a three-wave corrective one. A successful attempt to break through the low of wave e in c will indicate an even greater complication of wave c. The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was extremely weak on Wednesday. Yesterday, the instrument made an impressive decline after the release of the American inflation, but today the quotes began to rise, which indicates that the markets are not ready for more serious purchases of the dollar. In addition, wave counting predicts the construction of a new upward set of waves. This morning, the report on industrial production in Europe for May was released and the figures again did not please the markets. Production fell 1% MoM and rose 20.5% YoY. However, the markets were waiting for more optimistic data. Nevertheless, this report did not prevent the euro from gaining 55 basis points during the day. This evening, an event will take place that may have a resonant significance for the foreign exchange market and for the dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the US Congress before the Financial Services Committee. Given yesterday's inflation figures, markets and Congress will be waiting for the Fed chairman to comment on this. Of course, it is not a fact that Powell will provide new information. Or that he will not say something like "inflation is under control, and the Fed is ready to intervene at any moment using all the tools available to it." In general, the markets are waiting for new comments on the growing inflation, and if they wait for it, the pair can spend the rest of the day very actively. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave can be completed. Thus, at this time, I recommend buying the instrument with targets located around 1.1917 and 1.1985, which corresponds to 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD upward signal. This option will be canceled if the instrument makes a successful attempt to break the current low of wave c.
The wave counting of the new downward trend section is not entirely unambiguous, but at this time it is presumably completed or nearing its completion and has assumed a three-wave structure. Thus, I now expect a new low of the three-wave upward trend to be built. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin and inflation protection: a controversial issue Posted: 14 Jul 2021 09:45 AM PDT Bitcoin is falling, inflation in the United States is growing at its highest rate in 13 years. Both look depressing at first glance. Although both have a relatively optimistic explanation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell claims that the rise in prices was caused by temporary factors. And while the recovery of all processes after the pandemic is not over, and the effect of a low comparison base is in effect, one can agree with him. The fall in bitcoin also does not look catastrophic. Big players, as the data show, are accumulating positions, thanks to which the main cryptocurrency is technically trading sideways and has every chance of recovering. But if you combine these two processes, the question arises as to whether bitcoin is really good as a defensive tool against inflation. The crypto community is divided over their correlation. According to some analysts, bitcoin allegedly failed as a defense against inflation, as its price nearly halved from $64,000. For example, Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda states that the main cryptocurrency no longer behaves like a hedge of inflation, and expectations about it are exaggerated. But many industry advocates stressed that their early investments in bitcoin and the profits they made "already secured the future." Crypto enthusiasts note that, historically, BTC has grown, showing huge profits in the long term. But doubts about the protective function of the main digital asset are not without foundation. Mati Greenspan, founder of money management firm Quantum Economics, told Cointelegraph that "there seems to be no correlation" between bitcoin's price action and inflation or deflation data. "Of course, bitcoin has shown great results in the past. But most of the profits from it came during the period of global deflation, when all risky assets were growing. Now that inflation is really rising, for the first time since bitcoin, it is lagging far behind," Greenspan said. However, some global investors like Paul Tudor Jones have switched to bitcoin to protect their investments from inflation. Which of them is right? Time will tell. But even if there is no correlation, bitcoin has other attractions for institutions as well. At least they are still accumulating positions. But speculators do not care about the presence or absence of correlation. They need a good entry point, which may soon be formed to buy in the event of a price rebound up from the support levels of 31,082.82 (red dotted line) or 28,392.99. Today's upward rebound from the level of 31,082.82 already looks encouraging, but it is not a fact that the price will not go lower.
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| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:49 AM PDT USDJPY recently broke out and below a key support trend line and provided us with a bearish signal. Price retraced 50% of the rise from April lows. A bounce has followed and price back tested the broken trend line from below. The price got rejected at the back test. This is a bearish sign.
Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement Green line - support trend line USDJPY got rejected once it tested the green line from below. This is a sign of weakness and unless bulls manage to recapture 110.70, I expect price to test recent low at 109.55. Breaking below this recent low, I would expect USDJPY to move towards 109 but most probably towards 108.35. We are bearish USDJPY as long as price is below 110.70. Breaking above 110.70 would be a sign of strength and could lead to a higher high towards 112.50. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for Ethereum ETH/USD for July 14 - 15, 2021: Buy above $1,875 Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:44 AM PDT
Ethereum (ETH / USD) is trading under downward pressure according to the 4-hour chart. On the above chart, we have drawn a downward pressure line, now located below this area, below the SMA of 21 and the EMA of 200, adding selling pressure. Yesterday, ETH / USD was bouncing above the key support of 2/8 of murray (1,875). The market does not want to depart from this level as there is medium-term prospects of a return to the key price of $2,500. But first it must challenge 3 resistance zones until it reaches this level. The first is the bearish line ($ 2,000), the second is the 200 EMA and at the same level is the 3/8 of murray ($ 2,187). Finally, the strong 4/8 murray resistance is seen at ($2,500). While Ethereum is consolidating above 1,875, it is likely to make a technical rebound to the zone of $ 2,187 and $ 2,500 in the short term. On the contrary, a close and consolidation below $ 1,800, a fall to the support zone of $ 1,500 could occur. This is a key level where selling pressure is expected. The US CPI rose 0.9% in June and accelerated the annual rate of growth to 5.4%, marking its highest level since 1991. Traders sold Ethereum from the psychological level of 2,000 to the support of 1,875 due to fears that a continuously rising inflation rate induces the US Federal Reserve to withdraw its quantitative easing policies. Our recommendation is to buy now or with the technical rebound at 2/8 or murrya, whenever the price of ETH is located above 1,875, with targets in $2,000 and $2,187 zone of the 200 EMA. The eagle indicator is in the oversold zone and could favor our bullish strategy. Support and Resistance Levels for July 14 - 15, 2021 Resistance (3) 2,150 Resistance (2) 2,096 Resistance (1) 1,975 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1,826 Support (2) 1,755 Support (3) 1,663 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD bounces again from buy area. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:43 AM PDT EURUSD is now trading once again above 1.18 having respected the key support of 1.1750. As we mentioned in our last EURUSD analysis, price was making new lows and the RSI was not. This was for us an important bullish signal.
Blue lines- bullish divergence EURUSD is bouncing once again. Trend has not made a confirmed trend reversal yet. Price will need to break above the recent high of 1.1881 for a confirmed reversal. However I believe that with the RSI providing bullish divergence signals, EURUSD is a buy around and below 1.18. Bulls do not want to see the RSI make a lower low. On the other hand bulls also need to break above 1.1880 to show a sign of strength. Bullish divergence signals could go on for some time, that is why bulls need to be too aggressive before trend change is confirmed. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on Gold for July 14, 2021. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:39 AM PDT Gold price is moving higher today as expected by our previous posts. Price has managed to stay above key short-term support of $1,800 and has broken the bullish flag pattern we mentioned on Monday. Price is at $1,8251 and is on its way to $1,855.
Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement levels Gold price has broken above the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the recent consolidation area. Price is approaching the 50% retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion target. Our target for some time now has been the $1,855 level where we find the key Fibonacci expansion of 110% and near that level we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As long as Gold price is above $1,790, I expect these levels to be achieved. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:23 AM PDT Has gold remembered its primary function of hedging inflationary risks? Or is it just tired of falling? Whatever it was, the precious metal, unexpectedly for many experts and investors, ignored both the strengthening of the dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields in response to the surprise from US consumer prices, which accelerated in June from 5% to 5.4% YoY. Gold is traded in US dollars, it is usually perceived as an anti-dollar, therefore, an increase in the USD index, as a rule, leads to a decrease in prices for precious metal futures and vice versa. At the same time, the analyzed asset is not able to compete with interest-bearing bonds, therefore, an increase in rates on them is a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD. At the auction on July 13, these ties were broken. The dollar and US debt yields rallied, but gold seemed to ignore it. Dynamics of gold and US Treasury bond yields
In fact, the ideal environment for precious metals are periods of abnormally low or abnormally high inflation, accompanied by slow GDP growth, that is, the so-called stagflation. In the first case, the Fed will continue to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy as long as possible. In the second, it will puzzle over whether it is necessary to knock down the arrogance of inflation while slowing down economic growth by raising rates, or not. That is why the XAU/USD bulls managed to find their ground after the June sales. Let me remind you that the first month of summer was the worst for gold in the last 4.5 years. Indeed, labor market problems and a slowdown in business activity are forcing investors to wonder: Will the actual GDP recovery be as robust as expected? At the same time, the US economy is facing the fastest acceleration in core inflation since 1991. As a result, opinions within the FOMC are divided. Some think that the employment indicators have not yet been met so that QE can be rolled out; some, on the other hand, are calling for a quick end to the $120 billion a month quantitative easing program. They say that it is inflating a bubble in the real estate market, and it is time to take inflation by hand. In my opinion, the US labor market will recover faster in the fall than in the summer due to the expiration of the validity of incentive checks. This will restore investor confidence in the strength of the American economy and push the Fed to take decisive action. The dollar will strengthen on expectations of monetary policy normalization, while gold will go down. However, the split in the ranks of the FOMC does not exclude the possibility of its short-term strengthening. Especially if Jerome Powell remains committed to the dovish position in his speech to Congress. Technically, after reaching the target of 61.8% according to the Gartley pattern, a regular correction to the downward trend for the precious metal started. In such conditions, the growth of quotes to $1,830 with their subsequent return downward and closing below $1,815 per ounce should be used for sales. The same is true for a rally to $1,845 and then a return to $1,830. Gold, Daily chart
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| GBP/USD: plan for the US session on July 14 (analysis of morning deals). Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:13 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3835 and recommended making decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how buyers very quickly occupy this level, forming a false breakdown from it and a signal to open long positions. The first upward movement was about 35 points, after which the bulls rested on the resistance of 1.3869. A false breakout was formed, so it was safe to open short positions. As a result, we saw a downward movement of 15 points, after which the buyers regained control over the pound.
In the afternoon, everything will be entirely in the hands of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. The further direction of the US dollar depends on his statements. The ideal option for buyers of the pound will be the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.3869. Its protection forms a signal to open long positions in the hope of recovering to the resistance of 1.3909, above which buyers failed to break through at the beginning of this week. The breakthrough of 1.3909 will be realized in the case of Powell's wait-and-see attitude towards inflation. A test of this area from top to bottom will form a new buy signal for GBP/USD and will open a direct road to the maximum of 1.3938. The longer-term target remains the resistance of 1.3978. If the pressure on GBP/USD returns in the afternoon, and the bulls will not be able to offer anything in the support area of 1.3869, it is best to postpone long positions until the level of 1.3835 is updated or buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day from the minimum of 1.3802. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is now to protect the resistance of 1.3903, which buyers have already targeted. The formation of a false breakdown during the speech of the Fed chairman forms a good signal for the sale of the pound, which will push the pair to the support of 1.3869. Its breakdown will lead to the demolition of several buyers' stop orders and will collapse GBP/USD to a minimum of 1.3835, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.3802, but such a large drop in the pound can be counted on in case of real concern for Powell for inflation in the United States, which is unlikely. In the absence of active actions of sellers in the area of 1.3903, I recommend postponing sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.3938, where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen in the area of 1.3978.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for July 6 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, which led to an increase in the net position. Despite the weak fundamental data on the UK GDP growth rate in May this year, the pound continues to be in demand after the correction that was observed during the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. Now, after a major movement of GBP/USD down, traders are showing special interest, and the May data is not an obstacle to building up long positions, as everyone is waiting for more active economic growth in the summer period, even despite the Indian strain of coronavirus. However, the growth of the pound may be limited not only due to a sharp increase in the incidence of diseases in the summer but also the fact that the British regulator will not rush to change the bond purchase program is also a deterrent to the upward trend. While serious inflationary pressure in the UK will not be noticed, the Bank of England is unlikely to rush to make changes to its policy. Despite this, the optimal scenario is to buy the pound with each good decline in a pair with the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 51,596 to the level of 57,232, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 33,873 to the level of 35,329. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased to 21,903 against 17,723. The closing price of last week decreased and amounted to 1.3853 against 1.3878. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is already above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take over the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In case of a decline in the pair, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3790 will provide support. Description of indicators
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| Trading Signal for NASDAQ #NDX for July 14 - 15, 2021: Key level 14,899 Posted: 14 Jul 2021 07:05 AM PDT
The Nasdaq 100 #NDX remain at high levels after having reached the psychological level of 15,000 points. At this time of writing, it is making a technical correction for a new bullish wave and thus challenge this resistance zone again. At this point, it is located at 8/8 of murray. Technically, the index appears to be very overbought, sending signs of exhaustion. However, data from the United States such as the CPI were well accepted by investors and this gave it the impetus to the resistance zone of 15,000. So, we could expect a consolidation in the short term close to this level. We believe that the market could rise to test again the psychological resistance and level of 8/8 of murray (15,000). A double top could confirm a good point to sell below this level. The Nasdaq should consolidate again above the SMA of 21 (14,899) in a 1-hour charts. Above this level, we recommend buying with targets at 15,000. We must be careful because a downward correction could occur up to the support zone of the 200 EMA located at 14,740. So if the Nasdaq 100 consolidates below 14,850, it will be a good point to sell. If the downward pressure accelerates and breaks the 200 EMA, the index is expected to drop to the weekly support of 14,605. Our recommendation is to monitor the key level of 14,899. Above this point, we will buy with targets at 15,000. Below this level, we could sell if the index consolidates at 14,850 with targets at 14,605. The eagle indicator in a 1-hour chart is in the negative territory showing a bearish signal. Support and Resistance Levels for July 14 - 15, 2021 Resistance (3) 15,082 Resistance (2) 14,994 Resistance (1) 14,981 ---------------------------- Support (1) 14,822 Support (2) 14,731 Support (3) 14,681 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin & Ethereum: Large investors continue to work in the cryptocurrency market Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:55 AM PDT
The cryptocurrency market continues to move sideways without showing strong price changes. The behavior is very similar to the stage of regrouping trading forces, clearing the market of weak hands. Small players and newly arrived hamsters leave the market with losses during April, fearing to lose everything they have invested in cryptocurrency, but their volumes are happily picked up by big players, accumulating them in financial portfolios. Following the analytical data from the end of May, about 2,000 BTC is withdrawn daily from centralized exchanges to cold wallets, this leads to the fact that bitcoin reserves on the exchanges have decreased to the April level. In simple words, when there is a stage of bitcoin inflow to the exchanges, it signals its possible decline, which was observed at the time when the cost of the first cryptocurrency was in the range of $60,000 - $64,000. At a time when there is an outflow of bitcoin from exchanges, this signals the accumulation of the volume of the first currency by big players, as it already happened at the time of the recent upward cycle, where financial funds increased their portfolios. Will the BTC outflow signal a new upward cycle this time around? Why not? Cereal players are active Just a few days ago, a message appeared on the website of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the American investment company Capital International Investors, which manages about $2.3 trillion, acquired 12.2% of shares in MicroStrategy, which has 105,085 BTC on its balance sheet. In fact, Capital International Investors invested in the first cryptocurrency in this way in anticipation of its growth in the future. It is worth recalling that MicroStrategy has been increasing the volume of bitcoin on its balance sheet for almost a year, attracting more and more new investors. Purchase history: August 2020: purchase of BTC for $250 million December 2020: purchase of BTC for $650 million February 2021: purchase of BTC for $1 billion March 2021: purchase of BTC for $40 million April 2021: purchase of BTC for $15 million May 2021: purchase of BTC for $25 million June 2021: purchase of BTC for $489 million The positive news does not end there, the American holding company Fidelity Investments, which provides financial services, is increasing the staff in the division of the digital assets by 70% (+100 employees) due to the great interest in the new type of assets from institutional investors. Fidelity Investments is considered one of the largest asset management companies in the world. Assets under management: USD 10.4 trillion. There is much to say that cryptocurrency is a surrogate, an asset without a future and much more, and perhaps you will be right, but not only geeks and small market participants are interested in it. Banks, insurance companies, payment systems, corporations, and institutional investors take interest in cryptocurrency too. In simple words, it is already impossible to simply ignore the cryptocurrency, and perhaps it is worth measuring up and getting to work. What happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts? I really want to tell you about strong price changes or drastic changes in market cycles, but, unfortunately, the market continues to follow a sideways course, as if preparing us for something truly grandiose. Bitcoin, despite everything, continues to follow in the wide side channel of $30,000/$41,500, where the amplitude has shrunk to the boundaries of $30,000/$36,675 for about 2.5 weeks. New frames can play the effect of a compressed spring for a new round of acceleration, but dramatic changes will occur after the break of the $30,000 or $41,500 marks. Where should we go? If you focus on the big players, then there is a prospect of a new upward cycle, but do not forget that these players view the investment as a long-term investment, not a short-term game. Ethereum, unlike bitcoin, has characteristic price cycles, where, following the movement in the period of July 7-14, there is a weakening of the ETH rate. Due to the clock component, a new area of interaction of trade forces was determined, these are coordinates $2,400/$2,450. A breakdown of this area will accelerate the movement towards the psychological level of $3,000. The downward development will enter the active phase if the price is kept below the $1,700 mark.
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| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:54 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: In the first half of the day, I paid attention and focused on the resistance of 1.1799. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. We see how the bulls are trying to update the level of 1.1799, but it is not possible to get out of this range. Weak fundamental data on the eurozone leads to pressure on the euro. But all the efforts of the bears did not allow them to get even to the support of 1.1773, after which the pair returned and consolidated above the resistance of 1.1799. Its top-down test formed an entry point for long positions in the continuation of the upward trend. As a result, the upward movement was about 25 points and the market stopped near the next resistance of 1.1824.
The US session promises to be quite interesting, as the chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, will speak. Everything will depend on how Powell reacts to yesterday's inflation data. If it takes a tough and unapproachable position, the euro can strengthen its position even more. Therefore, buyers will most likely focus on a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1824 in the second half of the day. The test of this level from top to bottom forms a new entry point into long positions to restore the euro to the maximum of 1.1849, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the level of 1.1878. If the pressure on EUR/USD returns in the afternoon, and Powell expresses concern about high inflation rates, it is best not to rush into purchases. The optimal scenario would be the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1799. It is possible to buy a pair immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day only from a larger minimum of 1.1773. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: The bears are not particularly in a hurry to return to the market, as they are well aware that the Fed chairman will take a wait-and-see position. The next formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1824 after the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve forms a really good signal to open short positions, counting on the pair's fall to the support of 1.1799. A more distant goal will be the minimum of today in the area of 1.1773, where I recommend fixing the profits. In case of further growth of EUR/USD during the US session after the speech of the head of the Fed, the bears' task will be no less important to protect the resistance of 1.1849. The formation of a false breakout forms an entry point for short positions in the continuation of the morning bear market. If there is no activity of sellers, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1878, which coincides with the maximum of this week. You can immediately sell the pair for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points.
Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, due to the sharp growth of short positions, it was possible to observe a reduction in the overall positive net position. This balance of forces does not take into account the growth of the pair, which was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and admitted that it would allow exceeding the target for some time in the future. It turned out to be enough for euro buyers to start building up long positions. Now the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be considered as a good reason to increase long positions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 209,058 to the level of 212,998, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 121,912 to the level of 135,808. This week, there are no important fundamental statistics on the eurozone, so the focus will be shifted to inflation in the US, and the volume of retail sales. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the economic recovery in the summer. Thus, I recommend betting on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 87,146 to the level of 77,190. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1928 to the level of 1.1862. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to return the market under their control. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1824 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:54 AM PDT EUR/USD – 1H.
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1772, from which a rebound followed. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the European currency, and the pair began the process of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837). Fixing the quotes below the level of 1.1772 will allow traders to again count on a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1704). The information from yesterday was very strong. However, it was presented only by the report on American inflation, which produced the effect of an exploding bomb on traders. Many traders expected that after several months of continuous growth in the consumer price index, the time had come when the rate of inflation would decrease. However, yesterday's report showed that inflation continues to grow and in June it is already 5.4% y/y, which has not been the case in America for many years. On the one hand, inflation continues to scare investors more, as the real yield of many securities and bonds is already becoming negative. On the other hand, rising inflation gives reason to expect a faster completion of the Fed's economic stimulus program. Thus, traders probably thought that increased inflation would force the Fed and Jerome Powell to announce specific deadlines for completing the economic assistance program in the near future. Most likely, it is based on such arguments that the dollar showed quite strong growth yesterday. EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1890). Closing quotes below the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. Overview of fundamentals: On July 13, only the inflation report was released in America, and the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty. However, although there was only one report during the day, the information background was very strong. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - change in the volume of industrial production (09:00 UTC). US - producer price index (12:30 UTC). US - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Jerome Powell will make a speech (16:00 UTC). US - publication of the Fed's economic review by region "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC). On July 14, there will be quite a lot of interesting events in America, but the most important will be the speech of Jerome Powell since traders will now wait for him to announce specific deadlines for the completion of the QE program. The other events of the day will be secondary. COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish". Major players have opened 3,871 long contracts on the euro, but also opened 16,472 short contracts. Thus, in the last three weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by 44,000, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 1,000. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely. At the same time, the general mood of speculators remains "bullish", since there are one and a half times more long contracts on their hands. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: Today, I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1704, if the closing is made on the hourly chart below the level of 1.1772. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes on the hourly chart from the level of 1.1772 with the target of 1.1837. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for GBP/USD on July 14 (COT report). American and British inflation continues to rise. Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:54 AM PDT GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair on Monday performed a fall to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800), a rebound from it, an increase to 1.3859, and a new fall to 1.3800. This morning, another rebound was made from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800), which led to a reversal in favor of the British dollar and an increase to the level of 1.3859. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to expect a new turn in favor of the American and a new fall to 1.3800. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 1.3859 will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3906). The information background was very strong yesterday. And it was expressed only by the report on American inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey did not say anything important in his speech. As I have already said, the consumer price index in the US rose to 5.4% y/y, and it became known this morning that British inflation also continues to grow and was already 2.5% y/y in June. Both in the first case and the second, traders were waiting for lower values. Thus, many large numbers came as a surprise to them. Both the dollar and the pound rose after the release of inflation reports. I would venture to assume that the whole point is that now the central banks of the United States and Great Britain will be forced to move faster to complete stimulus programs. Let me remind you that the Bank of England assumed that the increase in inflation is a temporary phenomenon and it will be a maximum of 3% by the end of the year. However, with the current growth rates, British inflation may reach all 4% by the end of the year, and it is difficult to even imagine where American inflation will be if the Fed does not intervene. Thus, in the near future, I expect comments from Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell, who will have to explain to traders what changes and when to expect. Jerome Powell's performance will take place this evening. GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a close under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3642). Also, a lot will depend on the level of 1.3859 on the hourly chart, to which the pair has made a return. On the 4-hour chart, closing above the level of 1.3870 will again allow us to count on continued growth. Overview of fundamentals: On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contained one important entry each, so the information background during the day was very strong. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - consumer price index (06:00 UTC). US - producer price index (12:30 UTC). US - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Jerome Powell will make a speech (16:00 UTC). US - publication of the Fed's economic review by region "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC). On Wednesday, an inflation report was already released in the UK, which also excited the trading community. There is still a speech by Jerome Powell and the publication of the economic review "Beige Book". However, I believe that only the first event can cause new strong movements. COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on July 7 for the British showed that the mood of the major players has changed again in favor of the bulls. During the reporting week, speculators increased 4,732 long contracts and 1,870 short contracts. Thus, the "bullish" mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has slightly increased. But in general, the situation continues to be very similar to the situation for the euro. The "bullish" mood of major players remains, and the advantage of open long contracts is about 1.5 times. Thus, the British dollar retains the chances of resuming growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders: I recommend new purchases of the British with the targets of 1.3906 and 1.3972 if the pair closes above the level of 1.3859 on the hourly chart. I recommend selling the pound today if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3859 with targets of 1.3800 and 1.3741. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis for EUR/USD on July 14, 2021 Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:50 AM PDT EUR/USD, H1 time frame:
The bearish trend continues its development. At the moment, we are in the final part of a large correction wave 4. This wave takes the form of a triple zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], in which only the last sub-wave [Z] is not completed. Judging by the internal structure, wave [Z] takes a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) form. The sub-wave (W) is a double zigzag, and the second active sub-wave (Y) most likely takes the form of a simple zigzag A-B-C. In the second half of June, the price finished forming the upward correction B, which consists of sub-waves [W]-[X]-[Y]. After that, the bears led the price down in an impulse wave C. It seems that the sub-waves [1]-[2]-[3]-[4] are fully done, which formed the C wave. But for its full completion, a sub-wave [5] is needed. As shown on the chart, the EUR/USD pair is expected to further decline in sub-waves (3)-(4)-(5) in the near future, that is, to the level of 1.1688. At the specified level, the values of the impulses A and C will be equal. Since there is a high probability of reaching the specified price level, one should consider opening sell trades. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis and recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 14 Posted: 14 Jul 2021 06:40 AM PDT EUR/USD
Bearish traders managed to update the minimum extremes over the past day. A consolidation below and continued decline increases the relevance and prospects of testing the following targets in this direction, which are currently set at 1.1695 - 1.1619 (monthly Fibo Kijun + daily target for the breakdown of the cloud). If another upward correction develops, we can note the nearest significant resistance at the daily short-term trend (1.1833).
The favor in the smaller time frames currently belongs to the bears. On the H1 chart, the support of the classic pivot levels 1.1740 - 1.1704 - 1.1636 can be designated as downward pivot points. If the current deceleration during the last few hours manages to develop into an upward correction, then the key resistances that can change the current balance of power in the smaller periods will join their forces in the range of 1.1808-34 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). In turn, the resistances of 1.1808-34 are strengthened by the daily short-term trend (1.1833), so a consolidation above will return the advantage to the bulls not only in the smaller time frames but also in the daily short-term support. GBP/USD
The pair returned to test the supports of 1.3820 - 1.3793 (daily short-term trend + final border of the weekly golden cross) after it failed to break through the resistances of 1.3883 - 1.3906 (weekly medium-term trend + daily Fibo Kijun). If the bearish mood strengthens, the next downwards targets will be 1.3731 (minimum extreme) and 1.3636-98 (target for the breakdown of the daily cloud).
Yesterday's downward correction in the smaller TFs developed to key levels, which combine their efforts in the area of 1.3829-37 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). If the bears continue to decline, the intraday support, which will serve as their pivot points today, can be noted at 1.3771 - 1.3732 - 1.3666 (classic pivot levels). On the contrary, if the bears manage to hold above the key levels (1.3829-37) and begin to restore their positions, their interests will be aimed at breaking through the resistances of the classic pivot levels, which is set at 1.3876 - 1.3942 - 1.3981. *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of the trading instruments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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