Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2021
- Forecast for GBP/USD on August 16, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on August 16, 2021
- Forecast for USD/JPY on August 16, 2021
- Buying and selling in the stock market on August 16
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 16. Preview of the week. The British pound is waiting for information from the Bank
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 16. Preview of the week. A new "wave" of the pandemic in the US may postpone the Fed's
- Technical analysis for BCN/USD pair
- EURJPY vulnerable to a move towards 127.80 under certain conditions.
- Major weekly breakout in XRPUSD.
- Warning signals for major cryptocurrencies.
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on August 16. Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 16. Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- The world is becoming more supportive of bitcoin, as it begins to understand its advantage over fiat money.
- The markets continue to buy cryptocurrency until new legislation is introduced in the States.
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of August 16-20. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of August 16-20. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
| Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2021 Posted: 15 Aug 2021 09:02 PM PDT EUR/USD Last Friday, the euro grew by 66 points and on the daily timeframe it went above the balance indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator has consolidated in the zone of positive values - in the growth area. The euro continues its path to the target level of 1.1847. Consolidating above it will allow the growth to continue to 1.1925. With such an upward trend, the MACD line, located just above the first target level (1.1847), can be overcome on the first attempt.
The price settled above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, encouraging itself to rise further. The Marlin Oscillator is high at the top, which still does not exclude the formation of sideways consolidation with support from the MACD line (1.1780) before further growth.
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| Forecast for GBP/USD on August 16, 2021 Posted: 15 Aug 2021 08:59 PM PDT GBP/USD The pound's growth on Friday covered the decline from Thursday (12.08) and it paused by the MACD line on the daily chart. If the price rises above this line, then the pound will continue to grow to the target level of 1.4069. The Marlin Oscillator turned in the direction of growth.
Let's clarify the situation on the four-hour chart. In order for the price to rise even further, it will not be enough to just go above the Friday high, that is, above the MACD line in the afternoon.
Moving above the MACD line of the four-hour scale, above the level of 1.3894, fully opens the way to the designated target of 1.4069. The 1.3894 level corresponds to the August 9th high. The Marlin Oscillator has entered the growth zone and the price is above the balance indicator line. We are waiting for the development of an upward trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for AUD/USD on August 16, 2021 Posted: 15 Aug 2021 08:57 PM PDT AUD/USD On the daily scale chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turns upward from its own neutral line (arrow), which is a sign that the price will continue to rise. The exit above the MACD line (0.7410) opens the way to quite high targets: 0.7520 is a 38.2% retracement level of the entire downward movement since May 10, and 0.7590 is a 50.0% retracement level.
On the four-hour scale, the price is again struggling with the resistances of both indicator lines - the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue), the Marlin oscillator is growing in the zone of positive values. The trend is upward.
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| Forecast for USD/JPY on August 16, 2021 Posted: 15 Aug 2021 08:49 PM PDT USD/JPY Unfortunately, the USD/JPY pair could not withstand external pressure and fell by almost 80 points on Friday as restrictive stops below 110.10 were triggered.
It passed the 109.80 target level and the 109.20 target is open. New stop losses are likely to accumulate below this level, and big players may be tempted to repeat Friday's success and push the price down to 108.35. And here the question arises - do the big players need it? The answer may be in the affirmative if the majority of investors expect an imminent collapse in the stock markets. But so far there is no such unequivocal sentiment in the business media. If investors still expect growth in the medium term (and companies' financial statements are good), then the pair may not reach the 109.20 target level to maintain market calm. Or the price will go down very slowly to the target level. Consolidating above the resistance at 109.80 will bring back the rising sentiment, the price will try to once again go above the price channel line (110.60).
The price settled below the target level of 109.80 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator outlined a reversal from the oversold zone. This could be an early sign of the dollar's intention to recover, or it could spend a few days in the 109.20/80 range. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Buying and selling in the stock market on August 16 Posted: 15 Aug 2021 08:49 PM PDT Purchase of Gilead Sciences, Inc. shares (#GILD). American biopharmaceutical company. On the weekly chart, the price exited the rising wedge upward. The Marlin Oscillator is turning up and, visually, intends to get out of the prolonged sideways consolidation formed in the zone of the growing trend.
We define growth targets by Fibonacci levels: 138.2% at 74.18, 161.8% at 77.18.
On the daily chart, the price consolidated above the upper wedge line and above the 110.0% Fibonacci level. The Marlin Oscillator is growing. We look forward to continued growth. Sale of Intel shares (#INTC).
On the weekly chart, the price has consolidated below the indicator line of balance, and the Marlin oscillator has already penetrated deeply into the zone of the downward trend. A further medium-term decline in these shares can be expected. The first target of 49.70 is the top of September 2018, while the second target of 43.70 is the low of October 2020, March 2020, and December 2018.
On the daily chart, the price breaks through with lower shadows under the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator has outlined a downward reversal on the way to the border with the growth territory. The trend is downward. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 07:15 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 77.9123 The British pound has been trading with a downward bias for the past week. However, on Friday, it still began an upward movement, thanks to which it managed to gain a foothold above the moving average line. As we have already said in the article on the euro/dollar, the fall of the US currency on Friday provoked several reasons, including technical and macroeconomic. But in general, the whole picture for the pound/dollar pair now looks as if a new upward trend has already begun, and in the last week, the pair was corrected. Thus, so far, our expectations are being met. As for the possible breakdown of the forecast regarding the formation of a new upward trend, the US dollar can also be helped only by the "hawkish" rhetoric of the Fed representatives and the early completion of the QE program. If this does not happen, then, most likely, the US currency will continue to tend to fall. Recall that the pound/dollar pair also failed to continue its downward movement after reaching the previous local low near the level of 1.3600. Thus, both major pairs stopped their downward movement near the lows of the previous round of the downward correction against the global upward trend. Now let's figure out what to expect from the new week. It should be noted right away that the markets continue to ignore many macroeconomic reports. At the same time, preference is given to British statistics rather than American ones. Thus, the markets' reaction to the British reports may be relatively weak in the new week. Nevertheless, this is not a reason to lose sight of the whole "macroeconomics." Moreover, there will be quite a lot of interesting publications in the UK this week. On Tuesday, for example, data on applications for unemployment benefits, the unemployment rate, and changes in average wages will be published. It is not the most important data, but it is now important for the markets to understand whether the state of the British economy has begun to deteriorate due to the fourth "wave" of the pandemic, which is now being observed in the UK. The same applies to the consumer price index, which will be published on Wednesday. Accelerating inflation is a widespread problem since so many central banks have stimulated their economies through monetary incentives. Inflation in Britain is not yet excessively high. Its value in June was 2.5%. However, if it continues to accelerate, this will be an occasion for the Bank of England to start curtailing incentives as soon as possible. Moreover, in the ranks of the monetary committee of the British regulator, there has also been talk for several months about curtailing the QE program. Thus, the inflation report may affect the rhetoric of the members of the BA monetary committee. On Friday, the retail trade report for July will be published. It is also not the most important indicator, but a serious discrepancy between the actual value and the forecast value can provoke a market reaction. By and large, now there are only two questions for each of the countries studied. First: when will monetary incentives be curtailed? Second: did the economy start to slow down in the summer due to the increase in cases of the "coronavirus"? The answers to these questions will affect the dynamics of the euro/dollar and pound/dollar currency pairs. Suppose there is not much information on these topics. In that case, the fundamental situation will not change for the main currency pairs. We will continue to expect the implementation of the scenario for the dollar's depreciation in the long term. It should also be said separately about volatility. We have already dealt with the euro/dollar pair, having concluded that this indicator is now at an extremely low level. For the euro currency, this is quite a normal picture. But not for the pound/dollar. The British currency is traditionally more volatile, so its average volatility of about 60-70 points is an extremely low indicator, although formally, it is an "average" value. However, the illustration below clearly shows exactly how volatility has decreased in recent weeks. If earlier 100-130 points per day was the norm, now it is no more than 90 points per day. Thus, we also conclude that the markets are currently trading very cautiously, clearly fearing something. And they can only be afraid of uncertainty. And this uncertainty can only be related to the future monetary policy of central banks. I would also like to note separately that the fundamental background of a non-economic nature is now practically not coming from the UK. If earlier there were regular news about Brexit, the London-Brussels negotiations, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Scotland and its referendum, the "Northern Ireland protocol," now there is none of the above. Thus, traders can only rely on macroeconomic statistics and fundamental global factors that remain the same. Recall that we insist that the injections from the Fed in the amount of hundreds of billions of dollars into the American economy provokes a serious increase in the money supply and inflation. However, this is no longer just an assumption, as the US consumer price index jumped to a 13-year high. And after just 0.2-0.3%, it can update the 30-year anti-record. Since inflation in the same UK is much lower (twice), and the QE program is much less voluminous, we believe that the dollar may depreciate based on this factor. The technical picture of the 4-hour timeframe now implies the resumption of the upward movement since the price has overcome the moving average. However, this consolidation is not too confident yet. Therefore, theoretically, the pair can return below the moving average line today or tomorrow.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 67 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Monday, August 16, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3797 and 1.3931. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down signals a possible resumption of the downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3855 S2 – 1.3824 S3 – 1.3794 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3885 R2 – 1.3916 R3 – 1.3947 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair was fixed above the moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today, you should stay in the pair's purchases with the targets of 1.3916 and 1.3961 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders should be considered if the price is fixed below the moving average line with targets of 1.3824 and 1.3797, keeping them open until the Heiken Ashi turns upwards. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 07:15 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 277.6027 On Friday, August 13, the EUR/USD currency pair moved very well and rose by 75 points during the day. Such a movement was somewhat unexpected since volatility has decreased to minimal values in recent weeks, and no important events and publications were planned for Friday. Nevertheless, in the morning, the euro/dollar pair began an upward movement, which lasted all day. The only thing that can be noted from the macroeconomic statistics is the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which unexpectedly fell from 81.2 points to 70.2 points. Such a decline in the indicator of the state of the economy can be explained by the growing number of coronavirus diseases in the United States, which threatens the further rapid economic recovery and the curtailment of the Fed's quantitative stimulus program in 2021. Thus, the US dollar was under pressure on Friday. However, we would also like to remind you that we have been waiting for the beginning of a new upward trend for a long time. We believe that all the technical and fundamental grounds now favor a new campaign to the north. Among the most important reasons, we highlight the following. 1) Two corrections have already been formed against the global upward trend, each of which ended near the level of 1.1700. Consequently, the markets do not expect sales below the level of 1.1700. 2) The pace of sales by major players, according to COT reports, the European currency is declining. 3) The Fed continues to pump the US economy with hundreds of billions of dollars, which continues to provoke high inflation, which devalues the dollar. Thus, we still expect a new upward trend. Currently, the price is fixed above the moving average line, so the trend according to the "Linear Regression Channels" system has changed to an upward one. However, both linear regression channels are still directed downwards, so the bulls' positions are not strong yet. Most likely, the pair is at the point of origin of a new trend. In the new week, there will be quite a lot of interesting reports and events for traders and questions that should be answered. On Tuesday, the European Union will publish a report on GDP for the second quarter in the second assessment and the level of employment. In the United States, a report on retail sales for July and industrial production for the same month will be published on this day. These are far from the most significant reports. However, on Friday, the markets worked out an even less significant report on consumer confidence. Thus, a reaction may follow if a serious deviation of the actual value from the forecast value is recorded for any of the above reports. On Wednesday, the inflation rate for July will be known in the European Union, and in the US, the minutes of the Fed from the last meeting will be published. The markets can safely ignore both of these events. Especially if the inflation rate practically does not change compared to the previous month (2.2% y/y), and the FOMC protocols rarely cause a reaction at all. Because the information contained in them usually becomes known even during the meeting itself. And the last meeting of the Fed was completely passing. On Thursday, the markets will have to settle for only a secondary report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. On Friday, there will be nothing interesting for traders at all. Thus, it may not be the most significant week in terms of "macroeconomics," but still, many interesting reports will be published. As for the questions that the markets will have to look for answers to, they relate to the QE program in the United States and the "coronavirus." With the quantitative easing program, everything is simple. This week, there will probably be several more speeches by representatives of the Fed. In any case, the discussion of the timing of the possible completion of this program will continue. Recall that the US currency may receive market support, which may even cast doubt on the further growth of the euro/dollar pair if the Fed adheres to the "hawkish" rhetoric. However, the "coronavirus" and its fourth "wave" in America may prevent the regulator from implementing the most "hawkish" plans in the near future. In the last two months, the labor market has been recovering quickly, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.4%. However, if the country finds itself in the center of a pandemic again, this will inevitably lead to a new drop in business and economic activity. Moreover, a new strain of the virus is actively developing, which is even more dangerous, contagious, and deadly for people than all the previous known strains. Thus, no one can say what will happen this fall. It is already summer, and in the warm season, the number of disease cases around the world is growing. The same applies to the States, where the daily increase in diseases is 120-140 thousand people. However, about half of the country's adult population has already received both doses of the vaccine. However, doctors and epidemiologists are already discussing the need for a third ("booster") vaccination, and the virus is also not sitting idly by and is actively developing and mutating. Thus, the phrase "no one knows what will happen in the fall" is not a figure of speech and not a book expression. It is the reality in a world where there has been a "coronavirus" for almost two years. Therefore, from our point of view, it is too early to open champagne at the expense of curtailing the QE program. It is better to wait for specific signals from the Fed and see how the situation with the pandemic will develop. The US dollar may continue to gradually fall in price, as there are no special reasons to go below the 17th level.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 16 is 43 points and is characterized as "low." Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1752 and 1.1838. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of a downward correction against a new upward trend. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1780 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1658 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1841 R2 – 1.1902 R3 – 1.1963 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement and overcame the moving average. Thus, today, you should stay in long positions with targets of 1.1838 and 1.1902 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sales of the pair will be possible if the pair is fixed back below the moving average line with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1658, which should be held until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis for BCN/USD pair Posted: 15 Aug 2021 05:10 PM PDT BCN/USD
The recent growth continued and developed during the previous week, so the bulls managed to fix a good result at the close of weekly trades. The monthly resistance (708.92) was tested on Friday. The breakdown of this level will allow us to consider new bullish pivot points, the nearest of which can now be noted at 806-763 (daily target for the breakdown of the cloud) and 886-863 (weekly and monthly resistance levels). In turn, a slowdown and development of a downward correction can make adjustments to the current trend. And since an upward trend is already in effect on the daily time frame, the daily short-term trend located at 624.44 earlier will become the first pivot point for the decline. After that, the key zone of this section 558 - 453 will wait for the bears. It is worth noting that important levels of the daily and weekly timeframes are concentrated here, led by the Ichimoku clouds. It was these supports that managed to stop the previous decline of BCN/USD.
The main advantage in the smaller time frames currently belongs to the bulls. But after meeting with the monthly resistance, the bearish traders began to develop a downward correction at the H1 chart. The downward pivot points of the current movement allow realizing a sufficiently deep decline without losing the main advantage since the key levels of the same time frame form support in the areas of 659 (central pivot level) and 625 (weekly long-term trend). *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames and classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart are used in the technical analysis of this instrument. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURJPY vulnerable to a move towards 127.80 under certain conditions. Posted: 15 Aug 2021 02:36 PM PDT EURJPY continues to move sideways right above the major Fibonacci retracement at 129.25 area. Short-term trend remains bearish as price continues making lower lows and lower highs after exiting the bullish channel since October 2020.
Red parallel lines - bullish channel (broken) Red horizontal lines -Fibonacci extension targets Blue horizontal lines - Fibonacci retracement targets Green rectangle- short-term consolidation EURJPY continues to consolidate around the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Breaking below the recent low of 128.84 will open the way for a pull back towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 127.85. Resistance is at 130.20 and as long as price is below this level, bears are in control of the short-term trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Major weekly breakout in XRPUSD. Posted: 15 Aug 2021 02:25 PM PDT XRPUSD is trading above $1.20 after a very strong weekly breakout candlestick. Price has fulfilled even our second target of $1.10 continues higher. Price has broken the major resistance area of $0.65-$0.75 and with the bullish flag pattern has targeted higher levels.
A similar strong weekly candle we see back in April. Then price made a top around $1.97 and the started the pull back that lead to a higher low around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward move. In many previous posts we talked about the possibility we see now the start of the next major upward movement that will eventually push price to new all time highs. Price structure justifies a pull back towards $1 but not below $0.50, if this is the next upward leg. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Warning signals for major cryptocurrencies. Posted: 15 Aug 2021 02:17 PM PDT Both Ethereum and Bitcoin remain in a bullish short-term trend as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. However the RSI in both cryptocurrencies in the 4 hour charts has provided us with a bearish divergence warning signal. Both cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to at least a short-term reversal. Bitcoin
Green lines - short-term bullish channel Black lines - bearish RSI divergence Bitcoin is still trading above $45,000 and remains in a bullish short-term trend as long as price is above $43,685. Price is vulnerable to a pull back towards the red upward sloping support trend line. The RSI is warning of an imminent reversal specially after price exited the short-term bullish channel. Price however continues making higher highs and higher lows. Ethereum
Red lines - bearish divergence The same stands for Ethereum. Price remains inside the bullish channel. Support by channel support is at $3,084 and if broken we should expect a bigger pull back. The RSI is providing a bearish divergence signal. In both cryptocurrencies these signals are just warnings and not reversal signals. The up trend is weakening. Exiting the bullish green channel would be the first important sign of a possible reversal in Ethereum price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 02:13 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Last Friday, the GBP/USD pair was growing all day on the 30-minute timeframe. However, you do not need to start with this, but with the fact that the pair is currently in a horizontal channel between the levels of 1.3800 and 1.3877. And in order to see this horizontal channel, you don't even need to build it. A week earlier, the price was in a horizontal channel approximately between the levels of 1.3870 and 1.3957. Thus, there was simply a movement from one channel to another. And although, if you look at the higher charts, you cannot say that the pair is in a flat, on the 30-minute timeframe the picture is exactly the same. Since there is no trend here, it is still not recommended to consider signals from the MACD indicator at this time. There were no important reports in the UK last Friday, and reports on industrial production and GDP were released a day earlier, to which, one might say, the market's reaction followed. But the dollar simultaneously depreciated against the euro and the pound last Friday, and there may be a great many hypothetical reasons for this. Therefore, we advise you not to focus at this point yet. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound/dollar pair moved quite well on the 5-minute timeframe. The main thing was to correctly disassemble each of the generated signals, since they were extremely imprecise and indistinct. For example, the first buy signal, which was formed near the level of 1.3800, was formed in total for almost the entire European session, and the movement itself at this time was almost a complete flat. However, the upward movement still began closer to the US session, and novice traders could open long positions here. Subsequently, the level of 1.3832 was reached and overcome, so long positions should be left open, and then the level of 1.3862. Therefore, novice traders had plenty of opportunities and guidelines to close a buy deal with good profit. They could have done this by Take Profit, since the price went up 50 points in total after the signal was generated. Manually, they had to close long positions as soon as the 1.3862 level was reached, since the movement began to weaken around this level, and time passed towards the evening, which would also bring about 50 points of profit. Thus, in almost any case, newbies earned 50 points on Friday. Trading tips for Monday: At this time, the pound/dollar pair is already in a different horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe, so you should not trade using signals from the MACD indicator at this time. You still need to wait for a trend, and at the same time for a trend line or channel. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3832, 1.3862, 1.3877, 1.3945. We recommend trading with them. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events are scheduled for Monday in the UK and the US, so the pound/dollar pair may remain inside the horizontal channel and begin to decline to its lower border. At the same time, if the pair surpasses the 1.3877 level, it will continue to rise. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 02:13 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair finally moved more or less adequately on Friday. Recall that in recent months, every 3 out of 5 trading days have been running with low volatility and were almost completely flat. Thus, there are really few days when the pair moves strongly and in a trend. Friday was just one of those days. Although at first nothing was in favor of this, since important macroeconomic reports were not released on August 13. Nevertheless, the pair started to almost rise in the morning, and in the afternoon, the US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan provided unexpected support for the euro. This indicator decreased by the end of August from 81.2 to 70.2 points, which caused additional pressure on the US dollar. Markets usually pay little or no attention to this index. However, this time, apparently, the discrepancy between the forecast and the actual value was too great. As a result, the pair rose by 75 points during the day, which has not happened for a long time. In addition, the MACD indicator has generated a buy signal for the first time in a very long time. And also an upward trend line was formed, which also supports the upward trend. Thus, Friday the 13th turned out to be a very successful day for traders in practice. On the MACD signal to buy, traders could enter the market at the level of 1.1742 and earn 30-40 points in Take Profit. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The picture of the pair's movements also looks pretty good on the 5-minute timeframe. Unfortunately, the first buy signal was formed when the upward movement had already begun, but at the same time look at how well the price moved during the day. It spent almost all of its time in one direction and there were nearly no rollbacks. It's a pleasure to work with such movements. So, the signal formed around the levels of 1.1752 and 1.1756, when the price broke them. This was followed by an increase to the level of 1.1802, from which the price bounced twice. Thus, novice traders could take profits either using Take Profit, or near the level of 1.1802. In any case, they would have made a profit. Trading tips for Monday: The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement on the 30-minute timeframe, which can be quite long. The main thing is that now there is an upward trend line, which acts as a support for bull traders and a reference point. At the moment, the MACD indicator is too high for new buy signals, so you need to wait until it goes down to zero. A price rebound from the trend line can also be regarded as a buy signal. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.1752 (1.1756), 1.1802, 1.1831, 1.1851. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. Neither the United States nor the European Union will publish a single important event on Monday. Thus, it is likely that volatility will again be low, and there will be no trend movement. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 04:12 AM PDT
Bitcoin continues to grow, and, as we have already said, this is most likely due to the rush of many investors and traders to have time to buy as many coins as possible before the new legislation concerning the taxation of cryptocurrencies is adopted in the United States. Also, we should not forget that the Fed, like many other central banks in the world, continues to stimulate the economy with hundreds of billions of dollars printed. Thus, there is more money, and they need to settle somewhere. For example, for this reason, US stock indices continue to grow and update their records almost every day. However, it should also be understood that the governments and central banks of many countries will continue to "tighten the screws" to the cryptocurrency segment. Thus, we still do not expect the quotes of "bitcoin" to return to the year's highs. We believe that the current growth of cryptocurrency is somewhat random due to a combination of circumstances. However, almost all the recent trends of "bitcoin" were in some way random. The main thing is something else. At this time, there is a very clear trend line on the 4-hour timeframe, which supports the growth of the digital asset. Therefore, whatever the fundamental background, the upward trend persists as long as the price is located above this trend line. Meanwhile, the world is slowly beginning to understand the advantage of bitcoin over almost any fiat money. On the one hand, this fact lies on the surface: bitcoin, like any other cryptocurrency, is not subject to any central bank. Its issue is limited to 21 million coins, which means that it will not be subject to inflation, manipulation, or intervention by any Central Bank. On the other hand, this fact is not yet obvious to everyone. In addition, central banks still have the opportunity to influence bitcoin and its circulation through governments, which can tighten it or completely ban it. Thus, the whole world is still at a crossroads. On the one hand, bitcoin, in some moments, already looks much more attractive than ordinary money. On the other hand, it is still highly volatile, unstable, and the authorities of many countries may well ban it.
In technical terms, bitcoin grows on the 4-hour timeframe and has worked out the resistance level of $ 47,500. There is also an ascending trend line that supports the upward movement. Thus, until the price is fixed below this line, we do not recommend selling bitcoin. Although, from our point of view, there are still high chances of a new drop in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency up to the level of $ 29,700. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The markets continue to buy cryptocurrency until new legislation is introduced in the States. Posted: 15 Aug 2021 04:12 AM PDT
Over the past three weeks (or a little more), bitcoin has managed to rise in price by $ 18,000. And this is the whole problem of the first and main cryptocurrency in the world. $ 18,000 is a growth worthy of the strongest upward trend. Such growth of the cryptocurrency shows infrequently, and at this time, we can not conclude that it was appropriate. To begin with, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains extremely weak. In China, all miners were kicked out, and the legislation concerning cryptocurrencies and any digital assets was tightened. New legislation is being developed in the States, which will also be designed to tighten the regulation of the cryptocurrency segment. Therefore, the war of the authorities of the two largest countries with bitcoin clearly cannot contribute to its growth. Although bitcoin has already taken a strong place in the modern financial system, this does not mean that the central banks of the largest countries of the world will turn a blind eye to a decentralized and uncontrolled currency. Of course, it is unlikely that bitcoin and its "brothers" can already be banned. Given that you can own bitcoin in any country, and there is no link to the geography of bitcoin, then in any case, everyone can take possession of the digital currency one way or another. However, governments and central banks are almost guaranteed to control this area and collect as much taxes from it as possible. Thus, in the near future, bitcoin may seriously lose its popularity. It should be understood that many large and institutional investors cannot and do not want to buy bitcoin through various exchangers or dubious Internet sites. For such large clients, bitcoin can be bought on stock exchanges, through major international banks, and so on. However, any such operation will "pass" through the US Tax Administration. And, there is no doubt that many countries will introduce similar legislation in the future. Therefore, the current growth of bitcoin is increasingly similar to the desire of traders and investors to buy "full." At the same time, the new tax legislation has not yet begun to take effect in the United States. After all, there were no fundamental reasons and grounds for its growth.
In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be in an upward movement on the 24-hour timeframe and has reached the level of $ 47,500. This level is important because it is the minimum of April 26 and 50% of the movement from the absolute maximum of the value to the minimum of 2021. At the moment, bitcoin has bounced off this level, so there are expectations of a new drop in quotes to the level of $ 29,700, which we are counting on. However, on the 4-hour timeframe (to be discussed in the next article), a trend keeps the current trend upward. And we remind you that no matter what the fundamental background is, if there is a clear technical trend for the instrument, you need to trade according to it. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 04:11 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in an ultra-calm mode during the current week. We have already said earlier that the movements that look quite volatile on the charts are not such. For example, the last Friday candle, which is quite impressive in size, actually has a size of about 70 points. Most of the days end with a volatility of 30-40 points, which is very small. Therefore, there are very weak movements for the euro/dollar pair, which are very difficult to work out. Nevertheless, we note that the pair still worked out to the level of 1.1700, which we called the target. The illustration clearly shows two serious price declines, which are two corrections against the global upward trend. As you can see, the second round of correction ended in the same place as the first. It is exactly the scenario we were counting on. Now, in some way, the "moment of truth" is coming for the pair, since if the US currency, contrary to our expectations, is going to continue to be in demand, then it needs to break through the 17th level. In recent weeks, the dollar has received support from the fundamental background, as more members of the Fed's monetary committee show their readiness to vote for curtailing the quantitative stimulus program in the coming months. And here, the US dollar must also prove that it reacted to this news from the Fed and not just grew based on technical factors. Because if the markets pay close attention to possible changes in monetary policy towards tightening, then the US currency has a good chance of continuing growth. Otherwise, the long-awaited upward trend should begin with a minimum target near the level of 1.2240. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 3-9), the EUR/USD pair fell by 140 points. Since, in general, the European currency has been falling in recent weeks, it is not surprising that COT reports show a weakening of the "bullish" mood among professional traders. However, the euro/dollar pair has been declining very reluctantly in recent weeks, and major players have stopped massively closing buy contracts and opening sell contracts. During the reporting week, a group of Non-commercial traders opened 11 thousand buy contracts and 18 thousand sell contracts. Thus, the net position for professional players decreased by another 8 thousand. However, the indicators under the chart show that although the net position continues to decline, its reduction rate is decreasing. In addition, as we have already said, the European currency has fallen to the level of 1.1700, near which there is a very high probability of an upward reversal. The first indicator shows that the green and red lines (net positions of the "Non-commercial" and "Commercial" groups) continue to move towards each other, which means that the upward trend continues to weaken. Recall that when the lines begin to narrow, it means the end of the current trend. However, at the same time, the situation on the chart looks just like a correction. Thus, we believe that at this time, both indicators signal a correction. Still, we should not forget that the Fed has not yet completed the quantitative stimulus program, thanks to which the American economy continues to be pumped with money, which provokes an increase in inflation and an increase in the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, we still expect a new round of the fall of the US currency. The mood of the major players remains "bullish," as the total number of buy contracts still exceeds the number of sell contracts. The current trading week was very calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics and fundamental events. The US inflation report showed that the indicator's value did not change compared to the previous month, and all reports from the European Union did not cause any reaction from traders. However, there are still several reasons for weakening the US currency at the end of the week. First, quite unexpectedly, on Friday, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan collapsed from 81.2 points to 70.2. And the markets did not ignore this report any less unexpectedly. Secondly, a new wave of "coronavirus" diseases is gaining momentum in the United States. Meanwhile, doctors have found another new strain of the virus, which is even more contagious and deadly than all the already known strains. Third, the bears were saved before the level of 1.1700. Thus, in the coming weeks, everything will depend on how seriously the markets take the fact that the QE program can be completed in the near future and whether the US economy will start to slow down due to a new "wave" of the pandemic. Trading plan for the week of August 16-20: 1) In the 24-hour timeframe, the trend remains downward. However, traders have made an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the level of 1.1700. Thus, the downward movement can be completed. However, as long as the price is below the critical line, the downward trend remains relevant, and short positions should be preferred in trading. 2) The euro/dollar pair with grief in half crawled to the level of 1.1700, but it corrected to the Kijun-sen line on Friday. Therefore, overcoming this line may indicate the beginning of a new upward trend. The first target for long positions, in this case, will be the level of 1.2000, but in the future (perhaps for several months), the pair may reach the previous local maximum of 1.2240. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 15 Aug 2021 04:11 AM PDT GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair has been steadily declining this week. However, it showed a sharp increase on Friday, which seems to have been provoked by both technical and macroeconomic factors. Recall that we also expect the resumption of the upward trend for the pound. Or its continuation, since the pound has been growing over the past few weeks. We also said earlier that the pound/dollar pair is trading very similar to the euro/dollar pair. The same two corrective turns against the global upward trend. However, the British currency has already begun to rise in price in recent weeks, and a new upward trend is expected. Thus, the pound made a false start, and the euro is late. However, this should not prevent the pound/dollar pair from continuing its upward movement because factors continue to speak in favor of a further fall in the US currency. In principle, both technical and fundamental factors have not changed at all in recent months. The only thing that can support the US currency in the near future is the curtailment of the Fed's QE program. However, in the UK, their QE program may also be completed in the coming months. Thus, even in the future, the support for the US currency is not so strong. However, neither the Bank of England nor the Fed has yet completed QE, so the money supply in the US continues to grow at a higher rate than in the UK, and the dollar can resume a downward trend for itself. The COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 3-9), the GBP/USD pair fell by 40 points. And, if the major players continue to reduce their net position in the European currency, then professional traders begin to repurchase the British currency. Pay attention to the green line of the first indicator (the "Non-commercial" group) – it has turned up and is growing. Thus, we can now witness the emergence of a new upward trend. During the reporting week, however, the major players were not particularly zealous in opening new contracts. To be more precise, they only closed them. Non-commercial traders have almost 2,000 fewer contracts for buying and 5,500 fewer contracts for selling. However, this still means that the net position has increased by 3,500, and the mood of the most important traders has become more "bullish." It is "more bullish" and not "less bearish" because the "Non-commercial" group has more contracts for buying than for selling (43,700 against 37,600). And this suggests that the "bullish" mood may strengthen in the coming months. Moreover, the technical picture for the pound is approximately the same as for the euro: the quotes fell to the minimum of the first round of correction against the upward trend and could not continue moving down. Therefore, there is a high probability of a new round of upward movement. As you can see, both COT reports and technical analysis predict approximately the same scenario. Therefore, we have the right to expect the pound/dollar pair quotes to return to the level of 1.4240. During the current week in the UK, only one day was more or less interesting in macroeconomic events. On Thursday, a report on GDP for the second quarter was published and a report on industrial production. If GDP did not disappoint traders, then the production report was below forecasts. However, these data had only local pressure on the pound. In general, the British currency continues to grow, and the markets are paying more attention to news from overseas. In fairness, it should be noted that an extremely small amount of important information has been coming from the UK recently. Boris Johnson has gone on another vacation. The fourth "wave" of the pandemic has subsided a little, but it has not ended. There was no news from Northern Ireland and the "Scottish referendum." There were no new reports regarding the Brexit negotiations and the "Northern Ireland Protocol" between Brussels and London. Therefore, there is nothing to prevent the pound from returning to its 3-year highs yet. Trading plan for the week of August 16-20: 1) The pound/dollar pair has been correcting for more than two weeks, but neither the global upward trend nor the local upward trend has been canceled yet. This week, the pair's quotes fell almost to the Kijun-sen line, near which an upward turn may occur. In principle, on Friday, there was already fairly strong growth of the pair, which began in the morning. Thus, we believe that the price will try to grow to the Senkou Span B line in the near future. 2) Sellers squeezed out of the pound/dollar pair everything they could at this stage and let the initiative out of their hands. Thus, it is necessary to return to sales when a new downward trend is formed. For example, if the price is fixed below the critical line. If this happens, the downward movement may resume with the target of 1.3600, but we do not expect such a scenario yet. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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