Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- EUR/USD upward impulse remains
- Bank of England's new goal is to strengthen GBP/USD
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 31. Analysis of Monday. Getting ready for Tuesday
- EUR/USD: dollar says goodbye to hot August and hints to the euro that it is too early to relax, because there is no less
- Bank of America praises El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin as a legal tender
- August 30, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.
- August 30, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- August 30, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.
- GBP/USD More Gains Expected!
- USD/CAD False Breakdown With Huge Separation! What Now?
- EUR/USD Attention At Upside Breakout!
- USD/JPY At Crossroads! Long Or Short?
- Analysis of GBP/USD for August 30. Markets are ready to slowly sell the US dollar
- Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 30 - 31, 2021: Sell Below $48,335 (SMA 21)
- EUR/USD: investors puzzled by Powell's message that pushes USD down. How long USD to extend weakness?
- Bitcoin: Network data shows strong support and accumulation of momentum for growth
- Oil prices seek direction ahead of OPEC+ meeting
- Trading Signal for CRUDE OIl - #CL for August 30 - 31, 2021: Sell Below 68.75 (4/8)
- GBP/USD: The pound get bypassed on the turn
- Trading plan for WTI Crude for August 30, 2021
- Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for August 30, 2021.
- Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for August 30, 2021.
- Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD for August 30, 2021.
- USDCAD breaks key support trend line.
- Trading plan for Gold for August 30, 2021
| EUR/USD upward impulse remains Posted: 30 Aug 2021 05:25 PM PDT Last week, the bullish intentions of the largest player interested in the Euro currency were confirmed. The European Central Bank has allowed the Euro to hold above the initial level of MRO operations. The task for the next two days is to follow the upward impulse. Any downward trend should be viewed as an opportunity to buy the instrument at favorable prices. The best buy prices are at the level of 1.1772. The growth target may be the level of 1.1877, which will give an opportunity to keep purchases in the medium term.
It is not necessary to chase quick profits, but ignoring the support for the growth of the Euro from the central bank will be fraught with consequences. The attempts to reverse the upward impulse are not visible, so holding previously opened purchases is the optimal strategy. It is possible to top up a long position from the levels of 1.1772 and below. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bank of England's new goal is to strengthen GBP/USD Posted: 30 Aug 2021 04:58 PM PDT It was already known that many instruments increased against the US dollar on Friday amid the news background. The GBP/USD pair is no exception. The Bank of England did not keep the price of the pound below the banking level. Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading above the banking level, which indicates that the bullish momentum will most likely continue. The upward target is the level of 1.3853 and favorable purchase prices are located at yesterday's lows of the European session.
Trading in an upward direction has a number of advantages. A favorable risk-to-profit ratio is a basis for building a trading plan. On August 27, the "absorption" pattern of the daily level was formed, so the probability of updating the weekly maximum is 80%. At the moment, it is not necessary to talk about long-term growth prospects since the general dynamics of major pairs are inclined downward. Nevertheless, it is possible to partially leave the purchase with its transfer to breakeven in case of a change in the benchmark in the autumn market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 30 Aug 2021 02:08 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued to trade very calmly on Monday. In principle, this movement is called a flat. Moreover, it does not even make sense to try to work out this type of flat, since volatility was 27 points. We would like to remind you that the minimum Take Profit for any trade is 30 points. Thus, even theoretically, it was practically impossible to make money today. The weakness of the movement is especially clearly visible on the 30-minute timeframe. In addition, the price settled below the upward trend line on Friday, so now it is no longer relevant, although the upward trend is formally still preserved. However, along with this, traders did not manage to overcome the level of 1.1805. Thus, the overall upward movement is very weak. No important report published either in the European Union or in the United States either. Thus, we have a completely "empty" Monday. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The picture of the pair's movements on the 5-minute timeframe was as simple as possible. Novice traders can clearly see how the pair traded all day in the chart above. When it takes almost an entire trading session to form one trading signal, the pair clearly has problems. However, despite the flat, three trading signals were generated. Everything is for short positions, and everything is near the 1.1802 level. Thus, novice traders could still open one short position today. As a result, a short could be closed either manually at minimum profit, or by Stop Loss, which should have been set to breakeven, since the price went down as a result of 15 points. Thus, in any case, today there were no losses, which is very good. Trading tips for Tuesday: The EUR/USD pair continues to be in an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but the trend line is broken, and the upward movement itself is very weak. Since there is no actual trend line now, the signals from the MACD indicator should be ignored until a new trend line or channel is formed. Overcoming the level of 1.1805 can be used as a signal, but a similar signal will be formed earlier and at the lowest TF. In the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.1756, 1.1779, 1.1802, 1.1831, 1.1851. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Tuesday, the European Union will publish a rather important report on inflation for August, which may move the pair's quotes from their place. Thus, in the morning one can expect a stronger movement than on Monday. There will be no important macroeconomic publications in the second half of the day, so there is not much to count on. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 30 Aug 2021 02:08 PM PDT
August turned out to be rather "hot" for the dollar. Expectations of an early tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve pushed the greenback to the highest levels since November 2020. However, these expectations weakened somewhat, which served as a reason for the USD to pull back from multi-month peaks. A month ago, investors believed that the Fed would announce the details of reducing the asset repurchase program at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, but the rapid spread of the COVID-19 delta variant in the United States, apparently, forced the central bank to adjust its plans. Speaking at the end of last week at a symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dispelled market fears about a rapid reduction in incentives and an increase in interest rates. These statements supported purchases of risky assets and put pressure on the dollar. As a result, key US stock indexes updated record highs, the greenback fell by about 0.4%, and the EUR/USD pair reached its highest level since the beginning of August. After more "tough" than expected statements by a number of Fed representatives, dollar bulls hoped to hear such comments from Powell. Known for his ability to smooth out the positions of fellow hawks, Powell chose a neutral position. However, the modest reaction of the USD exchange rate indicates that the dollar bears also did not hear anything new for themselves that could encourage them to be more active. In fact, Powell only repeated the conclusion of the Fed's July minutes published earlier – the majority of the leadership of the US central bank believed then that it was possible to start reducing the volume of asset repurchases by the end of the year.
Assessing the changes since the last FOMC meeting, Powell noted both a positive shift – a strong report on the US labor market for July, and the acceleration of the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus in the country, promising to assess incoming data and emerging risks. At the same time, Powell stressed that the reduction of QE, which may begin this year, will not directly signal an increase in interest rates, since the American economy must pass more stringent tests for this. "Powell did not say anything about the timing of the curtailment of monetary stimulus, and his repetition that the Fed's decision to reduce QE would not be related to the decision to raise rates was interpreted as an implication that there would be a time gap. This, in turn, led to the fact that the market took a position with respect to the regulator – incentives will be reduced, but not so quickly as to stop the recovery," ANZ experts said. According to analysts, Powell seems to have managed to walk a fine line, pleasing both those who demand that the central bank begin to curtail the asset repurchase program, and opponents of raising interest rates in the foreseeable future. It is obvious that Powell is taking a very cautious position, thereby trying to prevent a repeat of the panic in the financial markets, similar to 2013, and trying to prepare them for a reduction in monetary support as the US economic prospects improve. The main conclusion from Powell's recent speech can be made as follows. So far, everything is in place for the beginning of a gradual curtailment of stimulus measures by the central bank, and then everything will depend on how long inflation in the United States will last above the central bank's target level of 2% and whether the national labor market will continue to recover at the same pace. With his comments, Powell caused the dollar to weaken across the entire spectrum of the market, returning it to an important level of support in the face of the 50-day moving average. However, it should be recognized that this movement was not particularly strong, and at the beginning of this week it did not receive serious development. On Monday, the USD index is trading just above the two-week lows recorded earlier in the area of 92.60 points. Further down, there are 92.45 (mid-August low) and 91.80 (late July low). Capital Economics experts believe that the dollar's weakness will not last long. "We think that the expectation of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy in response to persistently high inflation will lead to an increase in the yield of treasuries and a strengthening of the greenback in the coming months," they noted.
Danske Bank believes that a further improvement in the situation on the US labor market and a reassessment of the current very low real rates will add the potential for an increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. "Although the US central bank's announcement of a reduction in QE this fall should not be a big surprise for the market, we believe that the recent smoothing of the treasury yield curve is too early in the cycle. We still have a bond market that needs to adapt to significantly lower asset purchases from the Federal Reserve. In addition, the first rate increase by the regulator is also approaching in time," the bank's strategists said. They expect that the Fed will announce a reduction in QE at the September meeting, and that the reduction will actually begin in the fourth quarter and will be completed next summer, and there will be a rate hike at the end of 2022. Soon there will be new data on the economic consequences of the "Delta" variant and recent changes in the dynamics of consumer prices, when the next release on US inflation will be released (September 14). In addition, before the next FOMC meeting, another report on employment in the United States will be published on September 3. According to the consensus forecast of analysts polled recently by Reuters, this month the US economy will add another 725,000 jobs, in addition to the almost 1.9 million created in June and July. If in December last year, unemployment in the United States was 6.7%, then in July it was 5.4%. As the indicator decreases, the balance of power between the camps in the Fed will shift in favor of the hawks, whose voices are heard louder and louder. "We expect the dollar to regain some lost ground this week, as investors remain concerned that COVID-19 will slow down the global economy," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. "Friday's employment figures in the US non-agricultural sector will lead or refute the arguments in favor of the announcement of a reduction in QE at the September FOMC meeting," they added. So far, traders continue to evaluate Powell's comments, and the prospect of the central bank curtailing monetary support without seeking to raise interest rates does not help the dollar much, but the markets are probably already looking at the European Central Bank meeting and the press conference of its president Christine Lagarde next week, September 9, UniCredit says. Last Wednesday, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said that at this meeting it would be too early to talk about curtailing asset purchases under the PEPP program and that they will continue at least until the end of March. On Monday, another ECB representative, Francois Villeroy de Galo, spoke in a similar vein, saying that there is no rush to make a decision on PEPP at the ECB's September meeting. According to him, interest rates in the euro area will remain favorable, and the PEPP program will be in effect at least until March 2022. Francois Villeroy de Galo also noted that the ECB has more time to make a decision on reducing asset purchases than its American counterpart.
Apparently, the ECB is not very interested in strengthening the euro against the US dollar, and if the data on inflation and employment in the eurozone do not present negative surprises, the ECB will stick to the current policy for several more months. In addition, there is already less than a month left before the general elections in Germany, scheduled for September 26. "The data of public opinion polls fluctuate greatly: the SPD in the last couple of weeks has noticeably approached the CDU/CSU bloc, which now has almost the smallest support for the cycle. Will the center-left, led by the SPD, win the elections? This would be similar to the scenario of the victory of the "greens", which we considered earlier: strengthening European integration, strengthening fiscal stimulus. However, even together, the Social Democrats and the Greens, although they are inclined to partnership, will not be easy to form a majority, since their total support is below 40%. A minority government is possible in Germany, but it has not yet emerged in the entire post-war period. The liberal FDP is a dubious candidate for this coalition, and the radical "Left" might agree, but even with them there may not be enough seats for a majority. In general, follow the news," Saxo Bank said. As a reaction to Powell's speech, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.1800, but ended the last five days near 1.1795. The pair again failed to grow above 1.1800 at the beginning of this week, switching to consolidation mode after updating three-week highs around 1.1810. The main currency pair needs to stay above 1.1800 to attract more bulls and continue to grow to 1.1900 or 1.2000, according to UniCredit. The initial resistance is at 1.1825 (the level near which the 55-day moving average passes) and then at 1.1860 and 1.1910. On the other hand, support is located at 1.1780 (the mark that restrained growth last week), followed by 1.1740, 1.1725 and 1.1695. It is assumed that the outlook for the pair remains negative as long as it is trading below the 200-day moving average at 1.2001. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bank of America praises El Salvador's acceptance of Bitcoin as a legal tender Posted: 30 Aug 2021 02:08 PM PDT
Bank of America highly appreciates El Salvador's adoption of bitcoin as a means of payment and is confident that the country will only benefit from this legalization in the future. Recently, the report said that El Salvador's legalization of bitcoin as a means of payment can simplify the procedure for transferring funds, and it can also be a catalyst for the promotion of financial digitization in the country. Money transfers in El Salvador account for only 23% of the gross domestic product, and it is also worth noting that the transaction fee is a large percentage of the transfer itself, which makes fiat funds unprofitable in terms of transactions. In turn, if residents of El Salvador use bitcoins for money transfers, this will entail a reduction in commission costs when transferring money compared to fiat funds. Bitcoin can also be used as a tool for converting personal funds. For example, citizens of El Salvador can convert dollars to bitcoin, and then, if desired, and vice versa. Bank of America sees a lot of significant advantages in the future for a country that has bitcoin in the list of its official means of payment. Since more than 50% of the country's residents do not have a bank account, bitcoin is the very lifesaver, the most affordable financial instrument that the residents of El Salvador can pay with-this gives a huge freedom of choice for Salvadorans and shows the whole world that El Salvador is keeping up with the times with global financial trends. Bank of America fundamentally disagrees with the opinion that many companies will have to forcibly allow transactions in bitcoins. "We fundamentally disagree with the thesis that this is a compulsory procedure for companies to accept bitcoins as payment. The seller, as well as the recipient, can absolutely easily convert dollars using the Chivo electronic wallet, if they are technologically savvy. The development of the digital industry in El Salvador and the use of bitcoin by citizens can attract foreign investment to the country itself, soon it will be possible to observe the influx of miners into the country, bitcoin ATMs, and so on." The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 30, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 01:40 PM PDT
Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where a sideway consolidation range was established. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices for a short period of time before significant upside movement was presented into market. That's why, intraday traders were advised to wait for candlestick closure above 1.1780 for another ascending swing to be initiated. This has just happened a few hours ago. Initial targets are expected to be projected towards 1.1840 and 1.1910. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 30, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 01:37 PM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 allowed the current short-term downtrend to be established. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1770 and 1.1700. So, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. The bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed. Bullish signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel. A bullish reversal pattern similar to double-bottom seems to be in progress. That's why, Bullish breakout above 1.1830 is needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 30, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 01:36 PM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement was to be expected towards 1.4025. On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. That's why, the pair remained trapped between the mentioned key-levels (1.3800 and 1.4025) until recent bearish breakout occurred earlier last week. Bearish breakout below 1.3800 enabled more bearish decline towards 1.3600 while the price level of 1.3520 was expected to be reached if sufficient bearish pressure was maintained. Unfortunately, this seemed to be a bearish trap. The recent bullish rejection witnessed around 1.3600 as well as the upcoming bullish breakout above 1.3800 will indicate another bullish movement to pursue at least towards 1.3880 and 1.4100 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 30 Aug 2021 10:53 AM PDT GBP/USD dropped a little in the short term, but the bias remains bullish. The USD could resume its depreciation after the dovish Jackson Hole speech. The current decline could help us to catch new long opportunities. It's located at 1.3756 far above 1.3733 today's low. 1.3780 Friday's high is seen as static resistance. Today, the UK banks were closed in observance of the Summer Bank Holiday. GBP/USD has rallied after the Unites States Pending Home Sales indicator dropped by 1.8% in July, even if the specialists have expected to see a 0.5% growth. The economic indicator remained deep in the negative territory after the 2.0% drop registered in June. The US data could be decisive during the week. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI, and the Non-Farm Payrolls could bring sharp movements. GBP/USD Bulls In Charge!
GBP/USD stands above 61.8% retracement level. It could still increase as long as it stays within the ascending pitchfork's body. The price has failed to approach and retest this dynamic support signaling strong buyers. The weekly pivot point (1.3715) is seen as static support. GBP/USD is bullish as long as it stays above the immediate support levels. The resistance is seen at the downtrend line. So, only a valid breakout through the downtrend line could really validate a larger upwards movement. Outlook!Techncially, a new higher high, jumping and stabilizing above 1.3780 Friday's high could signal further growth at least until the weekly R1 (1.3823). Personally, I would have liked to see a retest of the lower median line (LML) before jumping higher. Also, a temporary consolidation here around the current levels followed by a new higher high could be seen as a long opportunity. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD/CAD False Breakdown With Huge Separation! What Now? Posted: 30 Aug 2021 10:52 AM PDT USD/CAD dropped again in the short term as the Dollar Index has plunged on Friday around Powell's dovish remarks. The pair has touched a demand zone, a support area, so we'll have to wait for a fresh signal before taking action. The pair has increased a little in the last hours even if the US Pending Home Sales has registered a 1.8% drop versus 0.5% growth expected and after the Canadian Current Account was reported at 3.6B compared to 1.5B expected. USD/CAD is almost to register a false breakdown with great separation below the immediate support levels signaling a potential bullish momentum. It's premature to talk about a potential long or short opportunity. Most likely, the US data will drive the price during the week. You'll have to keep an eye on the economic calendar. USD/CAD Back At Support!
As you can see on the H4 chart, USD/CAD has found support below the descending pitchfork's median line (ml) and under 1.2590 static support. USD/CAD failed to stabilize under the median line (ml) in the previous attempts signaling strong demand. Technically, only a new lower low, a valid breakdown below 1.2573 today's low could really activate a downside movement. Stabilizing above the median line (ml) and beyond 1.2590 could signal a potential rebound towards the weekly pivot point (1.2673). Forecast!We'll have a short opportunity only if USD/CAD drops and closes under 1.2573 today's low. The next downside target is seen at the weekly S1 (1.2514). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD Attention At Upside Breakout! Posted: 30 Aug 2021 10:50 AM PDT EUR/USD is trading in the green at 1.1795 above 1.1782 today's low. It stands far below 1.1809 today's high. Unfortunately, It has decreased a little only because the Dollar Index has come back to retest a dynamic resistance before dropping deeper. Fundamentally, the German Prelim CPI increased only by 0.0% versus 0.1% expected and compared to 0.9% in the previous reporting period, while the Spanish Flash CPI increased by 3.3% versus 3.0% expected. The USD is somehow expected to depreciate versus its rivals after worse than expected US Pending Home Sales. EUR/USD Challenges Dynamic Resistance!
EUR/USD failed to stabilize above the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork signaling exhausted buyers. 1.1809 today's high is seen as static resistance. So, the pair will confirm more gains only after making a new higher high. Stabilizing under the median line (ml), making a new false breakout above the immediate upside obstacles could signal a potential drop towards the weekly pivot point (1.1763). Forecast!We could have fresh buying opportunities if the price comes down towards the weekly pivot point (1.1763). Also, jumping and closing above 1.1809 represents a buying opportunity with an immediate target at the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD/JPY At Crossroads! Long Or Short? Posted: 30 Aug 2021 10:49 AM PDT USD/JPY stands at 109.89 level at the time of writing. It seems undecided on the H4 chart. The price moves sideways in the short term, so, we'll have to wait for a fresh trading opportunity. Personally, I hope that USD/JPY will offer good trading signals after escaping from the current range. The price has increased from 109.70 today's low even if the Japanese Retail Sales has registered a 2.4% growth compared to 2.1% growth expected and after 0.1% growth reported in the previous reporting period. USD/JPY could drop deeper and it could resume Friday's sell-off if the Japanese stock index, Nikkei, and the Dollar Index will drop. The Pending Home Sales indicator was not seen as a high-impact event, but it could still weaken the Dollar a little after reporting worse than expected data. USD/JPY Undecided!
USD/JPY is trapped between 110.22 and 109.48 levels. Escaping from this range could bring us fresh trading opportunities. It has dropped below the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (LML) again signaling strong pressure. It has come back above the weekly pivot point (109.82). The immediate high is seen at 109.96, while the 109.70 is seen as the immediate low. Registering a valid through one of these levels could indicate the short-term direction. Dropping below 109.70 today's low could signal a potential downside movement. An upwards movement could be activated by a bullish fly above the 110.22 level. Forecast!USD/JPY could offer a selling opportunity if the price drops and closes below the weekly S1 (109.38). On the other hand, a buying opportunity could be signaled by a valid breakout through 110.22, above the weekly R1. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of GBP/USD for August 30. Markets are ready to slowly sell the US dollar Posted: 30 Aug 2021 10:02 AM PDT
The current wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still looks quite convincing. The supposed wave b turned out to be too deep, but it still does not break the wave pattern. The quote exiting from the lows reached last week indicates that wave b may already be completed. Thus, the markets still have the opportunity to build a three-wave upward structure. This option remains the main one at this time. A successful attempt to break through the lows of the last waves b and e will indicate that the markets are not ready to buy the pound and will need to make adjustments to the current wave pattern. But as in the case of the euro, it is recommended to start from the wave pattern option that is currently available, and not fantasizing about "what could happen if...". Once there are concrete signals that the current wave marking is unattainable, then it is necessary to look for new options. The specified instrument rose by about 60 basis points last Friday. The demand for the British currency began to increase during the night. Thus, the markets, probably even before the start of Powell's speech, assumed that he would not report anything interesting. And so it happened, so the market's reaction can be considered quite natural. In addition to Mr. Powell's speech, a quite important report on Americans' personal income was released in the US in July, which showed an increase of 1.1% m/m, although the markets expected to see no more than + 0.2% m/m. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan was also released in the final assessment. It amounted to 70.3 points compared to the previous month's value of 81.2. However, the market was already ready for such a decline, since the first assessment of the index already showed it. Thus, the main event of the day was still Jerome Powell's speech. Moreover, there was not a single interesting economic report in the UK. On Monday, a report on the number of pending home sales transactions was released in the United States, which fell by 1.8% mom and by 8.5% yoy in July. This is a weak value, but the markets showed that they were not at all interested in this data. In this case, three of the four important events of Friday and Monday did not arouse any interest. The proposed wave c can continue its formation since economic data does not interfere with this in any way yet. There will be no more important reports on Tuesday. We can only pay attention to the consumer confidence indicator, which may decline following the Michigan consumer confidence index at the end of August, as well as another report on inflation in the European Union. However, it will be more important for the EUR/USD pair. The wave pattern is now more or less clear. An upward wave is still expected to form, so it is currently suggested to consider buying the instrument for each MACD upward signal, with targets located around the level of 1.4000 (the first target). The instrument has supposedly completed forming the downward wave b and is ready to rise.
The upward section of the trend, which started to form a few months ago, has taken on a quite unclear form and has already been completed. A new part of the trend may acquire an impulsive form, whose first wave acquired an extended form and exceeded the highs of waves b and d. The chances of another strong increase in quotes are rising. If the news background does not interfere, then the quotes should continue to increase in the near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 30 - 31, 2021: Sell Below $48,335 (SMA 21) Posted: 30 Aug 2021 08:09 AM PDT
The price of Bitcoin in 4-hour charts was moving below the 21-day SMA (48,335), consolidating below the psychological level of 50,000. The market volume has contacted. This apparent strength could cause a sharp decline or it could boost demand for a new bullish wave to the zone of 56,250 (+2/8). However, we note that the downward pressure is increasing. BTC is now below the 21-day SMA that could be a negative sign and a drop to the 44,712 support could occur, where the 200 EMA is located. While the overall trend remains bullish and unchanged, investors should note that a break below 44,712, the key level of the 200 EMA, will put the bulls in a difficult situation, and BTC could start a new bearish wave with targets up to 37,500 (4/8). On the contrary, in case of a break and consolidation in daily charts above the psychological level of 50,000, BTC is likely to rise to +2/8 of murray located at 56,250. The eagle indicator is showing a low trade volume and a correction could be looming. The 4-hour chart gives us a signal that BTC could fall to the 200 EMA in the next few hours because the 21 SMA is pressed down. Investors are waiting for new lows to buy BTC again. So, a good chance to buy will be around 44,712 (200 EMA). The technical reading of the eagle indicator, that measures the strength and volume of the market, is at a point of 10. It means that the market lacks enough volatility to break the high of 50,000 or break the low of 44,000 is in a range-bound market. Support and Resistance Levels for August 30 - 31, 2021 Resistance (3) 50,567 Resistance (2) 49,698 Resistance (1) 48,480 ---------------------------- Support (1) 46,801 Support (2) 45,932 Support (3) 44,712 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 30 Aug 2021 08:05 AM PDT The outcome of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole did not encourage a further rally of the greenback despite the fact that Jerome Powell made hawkish remarks on Friday. The market had its own interpretation of Powell's comments as they raise doubts that the Federal Reserve could venture into the first rate hike next year. Still, the euro bulls have not benefitted from the situation. There are no pre-conditions for the dollar's trend reversal. What is going on now is a correctional decline of the greenback which actually came to an end on Friday. Today traders tried cautiously to enter the area above 1.18. However, they encountered resistance of the sellers as soon as the price had crossed the level of 1.1800. EUR/USD came under pressure of inflation data from Germany that will be discussed a bit later. Thus, the landmark event of August has been over. Experts are mulling over the three-day summit in detail, evaluating its prospects for the US currency. Has the long-awaited summit cleared up trading sentiment? From my viewpoint, rather no than yes. That's why the greenback took a knock on Friday against major rival currencies. All in all, the Fed's leader met investors' expectations, though he didn't say anything new and definite. The hawkish point in his speech is that he didn't relate prospects of monetary tightening to the pandemic situation in the US. At the same time, in his habitual manner Jerome Powell evaded saying a clear-cut deadline for tapering the QE program. He admitted the scenario that tapering could begin later this year. He confirmed that most conditions for scaling back monetary stimulus are fulfilled, but the question still has to be discussed.
In the 20-minute keynote speech, Powell tried to speak cautiously not to rock financial markets. He coped well. On the one hand, he did not rule out the scenario of completing massive stimulus ahead of schedule which favors the dollar bulls. On the other hand, he was too cautious and flexible in his remarks. He didn't overact to the situation about the Delta variant but he confessed that coronavirus still poses short-term risks to the economy. Having appreciated trends in the labor market, the policymaker turned attention to the first sings of a slowdown in consumer inflation. He reiterated that a spike in the CPI this year is of a transitory character. Nevertheless, Jerome Powell pointed out that stricter requirements have to be met to raise interest rates than the ones necessary to scale down monetary stimulus. Notably, experts have no common viewpoint on interpretation of the remarks made by the Fed's leader. Some analysts reckon that Jerome Powell didn't anything sensational but at the same time, he sent a message about slow and gradual tapering of stimulus programs. They believe that the regulator will hardly announce any definite moves in this direction at the nearest policy meeting, though such changes will be certainly discussed and stated in the minutes. Other analysts think that Jerome Powell dropped a hint about tapering that will be followed by the first rate hike. Such moves could be made considerably far away from each other. Meanwhile, the US dollar has been advancing amid hawkish expectations before the central bank declares its verdict. Another thing to bear in mind is the differential between the Fed and ECB rhetoric. If it gets more apparent, this will put pressure on EUR/USD. By the way, judging by Germany's inflation data released today, the ECB is set to maintain its wait-and-see stance. Germany's CPI dropped to zero in August on month following an increase to 0.9% in July. It is the weakest score since November 2020. Besides, the HICP also logged a negative dynamic, interrupting a three-month advance.
To sum up, the keynote speech by Jerome Powell on Friday left more questions than answers. The major message of the Fed's Chairman is that the regulator is ready for tapering its QE but there is no hurry to raise interest rates. Such a stance discouraged dollar bulls. Nevertheless, speaking about the outlook for EUR/USD, the US dollar is setting the tone in the currency pair. Back to the technical chart. The fundamental background signals a trend reversal in the medium term. 1.1800 still serves as resistance for EUR/USD. However, if the buyers are not able to overcome and, more importantly, to hold firmly above it in the nearest 24 hours, it would be a good idea to plan short positions with the first downward target at 1.1730 that matches the Tenkan-sen line in the daily chart. The main target is seen at 1.1650 that is also the key support level matching the lower border of Bollinger bands on the same timeframe. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin: Network data shows strong support and accumulation of momentum for growth Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:39 AM PDT Bitcoin did not please over the weekend. Yes, bullish engulfing was formed upon the breakdown of local support at 48,178.13, but it turned out to be not very informative. At this level, the price consolidated over the weekend, and today it breaks through it again from top to bottom. Such dynamics do not negate the prospects for further growth of the main cryptocurrency, but so far the consolidation looks unsightly. Maybe the BTC/USD daily candlestick will, of course, also close today above the level of 48,178.13. But for now, the trading range should be considered between the August 26 lows and the August 23 highs ($46,000-$50,000 per coin). Let's see what the on-chain analytics data show now. Glassnode UTXO's realized price distribution for bitcoins showed that nearly 1.65 million BTC have an on-chain base value ranging from $45,000 to $50,000, forming a strong support zone. This is the range that I indicated above. The next target support area for leading cryptocurrencies is in the zone from $53,700 to $59,000, in which about 1.33 million bitcoins have been accumulated. Technically, the next resistance zone is in the 52,000-52,929 area. Glassnode also reveals that, in addition to these key intrachain support zones, almost 2.98 million BTC is in the green zone in the $31,000 to $40,000 price range, indicating a large cumulative demand in this range. Price momentum slowed in the last week of the month and bearish sentiment began to show in the short term. It has been almost a week since the bitcoin price briefly exceeded $50,000 before falling below key resistance again. The on-chain analysis presented by Santiment suggests that bitcoin traders are pushing the mainstream cryptocurrency back into the sidelines. Santiment notes this is the perfect time for Bitcoin to return to growth. The support zone and strong cumulative demand in the lower price area could give the main cryptocurrency a boost, so a breakdown of the $50,000 per coin area will be decisive for further growth. Long-term forecasts remain optimistic, it is only necessary to consolidate above $50,000-$52,000. And there we can expect a return to the historical maximum. In addition, numerous forecasts of strengthening to 100,000 have not yet lost their relevance. And with the onset of September, the market may revive.
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| Oil prices seek direction ahead of OPEC+ meeting Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:37 AM PDT Most experts assume that the OPEC+ is likely to keep its current output policy unchanged during its meeting on Wednesday and continue its planned modest production increase.
Members of the OPEC+ grouping will meet on September 1 to discuss an agreed increase of 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) for the next few months. Earlier, US President Joe Biden's administration has urged OPEC and its allies to increase the production of oil in order to cap rising gasoline prices that are considered an obstacle for the global economic recovery. However, representatives of the oil-producing alliance said that the recent rise in global oil prices was temporary and was mainly driven by severe weather conditions and a shutdown of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico last weekend. Some sources from the OPEC+ say that current oil prices around $70 are completely normal and assume that the cartel will continue to work as planned with an output increase of 400,000 bpd. However, some analysts think that the outcome of the September meeting may be unexpected for the crude market and may become a much bigger shock for oil than the recent hurricane. On Sunday, more than 90% (1.6 million barrels per day) of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production was shut down as Hurricane Ida hit the coastline. However, this is hardly critical for the global oil market since the season of storms in this area is a common event. Usually, oil production is put on hold for a couple of days until the storm calms down. Hurricane Ida, which hit the region on Sunday, weakened the next day and continues to gradually subside. Analysts predict that oil prices will soon rally. At the same time, experts see the upcoming meeting of the alliance as a more significant factor for crude prices in the short term than the recent disruption caused by Ida. Analysts believe that if the cartel postpones a 400,000 output increase amid the pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, crude prices could jump to $74-78 per barrel in the very near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for CRUDE OIl - #CL for August 30 - 31, 2021: Sell Below 68.75 (4/8) Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:24 AM PDT
The price of Crude oil #CL on the 4-hour chart is facing strong resistance at 68.75. The 4/8 murray line and the 200 EMA are also located there. This level has become a strong barrier for oil, consolidation above this level is expected to continue towards the next 6/8 resistance at 71.88. On the other hand, crude inventories in the US decreased by 3 million barrels for the week that ended on August 20, according to the report released last Wednesday. This data does not appear to have had any significant impact on crude prices. Candlesticks on the 4-hour chart show that crude has reached overbought levels and there could be a correction below the 200 EMA towards the 21 SMA at 68.05. Around the SMA of 21, an uptrend channel is projected. If crude makes a technical bounce from this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy above 68.05 with the target at 68.75. Then, the price could reach the psychological level of 70.00. If crude manages to consolidate above the 200 EMA and above the 4/8 murray, the outlook could turn bullish, and there could be a new bullish sequence with targets at 5/8 (70.31) and 6/8 (71.88) of murray. Conversely, definitive consolidation below the 21 SMA located at 68.05 will be a negative signal for crude, and it could fall to the support of 2/8 murray located at 65.62. A good opportunity to sell appears below 68.00. The technical reading of the eagle indicator that measures the strength and volume of the market is showing an overbought signal with an imminent correction in the coming days. Therefore, according to this signal, we must observe that crude remains below 68.75. Support and Resistance Levels for August 30 - 31, 2021 Resistance (3) 70.82 Resistance (2) 69.92 Resistance (1) 69.30 ---------------------------- Support (1) 67.78 Support (2) 67.18 Support (3) 66.26 *********************************************************** Trading tip for Crude Oil for August 30 - 31, 2021 Sell below 68.75 (EMA 200) if the price breaks through 68.05, with take profit at 67.18 and 65.62 (2/8), stop loss above 69.20. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: The pound get bypassed on the turn Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:23 AM PDT The British pound climbed to the maximum height in the last two weeks against the US dollar thanks to Jerome Powell's hints in Jackson Hole that, unlike the curtailment of QE, we should not expect an early increase in the federal funds rate. However, when the Bank of England is also in no hurry to normalize monetary policy, and the UK economy begins to show signs of slowing down and losing to the US, the success of the "bulls" on GBP/USD looks like a Pyrrhic victory. Britain risks sliding into stagnation, a situation that combines high inflation and weak GDP growth, with a greater probability than the US will do. Both countries face problems in the supply of goods and labor, but in the north of Europe, the degree of difficulties is higher. In the US, people are in no hurry to return to the workforce because of incentive checks from Joe Biden. In the UK, the shortage of employees is due not only to fiscal assistance but also to a lack of qualified workers, as well as the rupture of economic ties due to Brexit. The stocks of goods in the warehouses of manufacturers have never been so low as now. This circumstance, coupled with the demands of new employees for a high salary, can heat up inflation red-hot. Dynamics of stocks of goods in warehouses of British manufacturers
Besides the shortage of staff, Brexit, and fears about excessively high inflation, there are fears that when schools open in September, the number of COVID-19 infections will increase. Epidemiologists warn that the share of positive tests for coronavirus in secondary educational institutions increased from 0.1% in May to 1.5% in July. At the same time, the level of immunity acquired by children is estimated at 20%. Scientists would like it to grow to 40-70%, but the government does not intend to back down in the full opening of the economy. The problem of the slowdown in GDP growth will certainly not leave indifferent the members of the Bank of England's MPC. At first glance, its strategy of normalizing monetary policy looks more aggressive than that of the Fed. The BoE is ready to raise the repo rate from 0.1% to 0.25% in 2022. However, then the Central Bank will take a break until the end of 2023, and the Fed will have the opportunity to bypass it at the turn. FOMC members have been issuing hawkish rhetoric lately, which is a bearish factor for GBP/USD. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester noted that QE should be phased out as soon as possible so that the Fed would have room to maneuver before raising the federal funds rate. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, believes that it is necessary to start getting rid of monetary stimulus in October. And even the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida is ready to do it if the August employment report turns out to be as strong as in June and July. Technically, the closing of the test bar below the dynamic resistance in the form of a moving average near 1.373 is a reason to sell GBP/USD in the direction of the targets for the child (red) and parent (blue) AB=CD patterns by 161.8%. These targets correspond to 1.349 and 1.33. GBP/USD, Daily chart
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| Trading plan for WTI Crude for August 30, 2021 Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:21 AM PDT
Technical outlook: WTI Crude has rallied early today, taking out initial resistance around $69.60 mark, as labelled on the 4H chart presented here. Since then, the commodity has pulled back to $67.67 intraday and is finally trading just below $68.50 mark as of writing. Bears could remain poised to drag prices further lower towards $66.50 and $65.00 levels before bulls are back. WTI Crude's recent rally between $61.70 and $69.60 seems to be complete after taking out resistance. Ideally, the above rally should be retraced, producing a corrective drop towards $65.00 mark, which is close to fibonacci 0.618 levels of the above. After the short-term dip, the commodity could resume its rally towards $74.00 levels. Going further, a break above $74.20 resistance would be further encouraging to bulls. But a bearish reversal fro $71.00/50 also remains possible as fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between $77.00 and $61.70 converges with trend line. Trading plan: Potential for a drop towards $65, against $70 in the near term. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for August 30, 2021. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:16 AM PDT XRPUSD remains vulnerable to the downside. Price is in a corrective phase retracing the rise from $0.50 to $1.34. XRPUSD has potential to move lower below $1 specially if price breaks recent low of $1.04. If this recent low fails to hold, I expect XRPUSD to move towards $0.80-$0.90 area.
Red rectangle- support Green - rectangle -resistance If on the other hand price breaks above the green resistance area around $1.20-$1.22, then we should expect price to continue higher towards $1.35-$1.40. Overall price is making lower lows and lower highs after topping at $1.34. Bulls need to show more signs of strength in order for bulls to retake control of the trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for August 30, 2021. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:11 AM PDT Gold price has pushed inside the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) and has turned daily trend to neutral from bearish. So far despite the recent rejection at the Kumo (cloud), price had held above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) support the bullish scenario. Let's not forget that we also saw a bullish flag break out a few days back that also targets $1,855-60 area.
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| Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD for August 30, 2021. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:07 AM PDT EURUSD as expected has back tested the cloud support at 1.1735 and bounced, exactly as bulls wanted. Price has made a new higher high after the bounce and is now challenging the horizontal resistance level at 1.18.
Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement Our first bounce target is the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1.19. We remain optimistic that a low is in and we are now entering a bullish phase for EURUSD. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USDCAD breaks key support trend line. Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:02 AM PDT USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend since May but recent high above 1.29 and its reversal has most probably marked an important top and the start of a deep pull back. Price has finally broken the upward sloping red support trend line that was respected many times before.
USDCAD is trading below 1.26 for now and if price continues to trade below 1.26, we will have a confirmed break down of the trend line and our 2nd sell signal after the reversal candlestick pattern we mentioned back in August 20th. Back then USDCAD made a candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow (tail) confirming bullish weakness and strength from bears. The following daily candlesticks confirmed the bearish reversal and pull back towards the red trend line.
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| Trading plan for Gold for August 30, 2021 Posted: 30 Aug 2021 07:00 AM PDT
Technical outlook: Gold is trading close to the $1,812 mark after testing $1,823 earlier today. The yellow metal remains just shy of initial resistance around $1,831, which is also close to fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop as highlighted here. Furthermore, the metal is also facing resistance from the slopping trend line passing through the $1,916 high. It could produce a corrective drop at least towards $1,780 in the near term. Gold has dropped between $1,916 and $1,677 in the past few trading sessions, carving a meaningful bearish boundary, which has almost retraced towards fibonacci 0.618 levels seen around the $1,853 mark. It is quite possible for bulls to push towards $1,835 from current levels before bears are back in control. Also note that recent rally between $1,677 and $1,823 might be close to termination soon. If this is true, a pullback would remain possible before the rally resumes again. Watch out for the break of $1,835 in the near term to prepare for a pullback. Trading plan: Potential for a rally towards $1,835 against $1,800. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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