Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for August 18. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. How
- Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for August 18. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. The
- Ethereum's top 5 reasons why it can dominate the crypto market
- USD/CAD further growth expected
- Bitcoin comes back to retest buyers
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 18. Analysis of Tuesday. Getting ready for Wednesday
- EUR/USD. Afghanistan, China, New Zealand: dollar grows amid strengthening anti-risk sentiment
- The Dollar index is testing major resistance.
- Technical analysis on EURUSD for August 17, 2021.
- EURJPY in bearish trend.
- Bitcoin vulnerable to a move towards $42,000.
- Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 17. Pound ignores good data from Britain
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 17. European economy grows 2% per quarter
- Will bitcoin repeat the 2020 bull rally before the end of the year?
- Bitcoin can break the downward cycle or fall due to a correction: what is most likely to happen?
- August 17, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and key-levels.
- August 17, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunity.
- August 17, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- Bitcoin tramples at $47,500 mark. Bloomberg discovers name of Bitcoin's real creator
- UK labor market approaching pre-crisis levels. GBP remains under pressure
- Trading Signal for Bitcoin, for August 17 - 18, 2021: Sell Below $46,957
- GBP/USD Hot Forecast, 17 August
- EUR/USD Hot Forecast, 17 August
- Trading Signal for Dow Jones #INDU, for August 17 - 18 2021: Sell Below 35,404
- Markets continue to wait for "hawkish" rhetoric from Jerome Powell.
| Posted: 17 Aug 2021 07:30 PM PDT GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair moved very attractively on August 17. A downward movement began at the Asian trading session, which persisted throughout the entire trading day. Although it would be more correct to say that it has not ended since Monday. One way or another, the British currency continued to fall, and here the question arises: why did the British pound fall all night, all morning and all day, and the European one fell only in the afternoon? After all, all European and US reports were ignored by the markets, and the data from the UK should have provoked the pound's appreciation. Therefore, they can also be ignored. Consequently, one can pay attention and analyze only the general fundamental background, which now boils down to the crisis in Afghanistan. And that is why the euro and the pound should have been simultaneously depreciating against the US currency. At least that would be logical. However, this did not happen, and this moment raises questions. Now for the macroeconomic reports. In the UK, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in June, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 8,000, and average wages rose slightly more than experts predicted. In general, the entire package of statistics from Great Britain turned out to be quite strong, but the pound failed to find support from the market on Tuesday. The number "1" in the chart marks the time of the release of the UK package of reports. As you can see, at that time the British currency had already begun to fall and the British reports did not affect this in any way. Now let's go through the trading signals. Unfortunately, during the European trading session there was a period when the pair was practically flat for several hours. And it was at this time that it crossed the extremum level of 1.3800, around which four trading signals were formed at once, the first three of which turned out to be false. The first signal to sell brought a loss of 16 points, the second (and third) to buy - 15 points of loss. The fourth (just when a powerful downward movement began) was no longer recommended to work out. Traders could open new short positions only on the last, fifth sell signal - overcoming the level of 1.3754. After its formation, the price went down by about 20 points, so most of the loss on the first two deals was closed. This is how, despite the strong downward movement on the 1-hour timeframe, on the 5-minute timeframe, we received a lot of false signals. GBP/USD 1H
The pound/dollar pair continues a fairly strong downward movement on the hourly timeframe, and has dropped by more than 100 points during the day. Quotes went much lower than the descending channel, so the trend now continues to be downward. As we said earlier, the current drop in quotes was provoked, with a high degree of probability, by the events in Afghanistan, so it is extremely difficult to predict how much more the markets will buy the dollar based on this factor alone. However, today Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech will still take place, which may also affect the movement of the pound/dollar pair. In technical terms, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3677, 1.3723, 1.3754, 1.3794, 1.3886. Senkou Span B (1.3876) and Kijun-sen (1.3806) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. The UK will release its July inflation report on Wednesday, 18 August. This is quite an important report, however, given how the whole package of macroeconomic statistics from the UK was ignored, it may also go unnoticed by the markets. In general, it is now important to understand how long the purchases of the American currency will continue on the basis of the geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan? We believe that the dollar may rise for a few more days, ignoring all other factors. But hardly more. Recall that in the long term, the upward trend is still preserved and we are waiting for its resumption. Nevertheless, since such a situation has developed, the dollar may rise in price for some time. The US will not publish any important reports on Wednesday, and the Fed minutes in the evening will most likely be ignored. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair. COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 40 points during the last reporting week (August 3-9). And, if big players continue to reduce their net position in the euro, then in the pound's case, professional traders started to buy the British currency again. Pay attention to the green line of the first indicator (net position of the "non-commercial" group) - it turned up and is growing. Thus, we might be witnessing an emerging new upward trend. However, major players were not particularly zealous in opening new contracts in the reporting week. To be more precise, they only closed them. The number of Buy-contracts (longs) for non-commercial traders decreased by almost 2,000, and 5,500 Sell-contracts (shorts). However, this still means that the net position has grown by 3,500, and the mood of the most important group of traders has become more bullish. Specifically "more bullish" and not "less bearish", because at this time the non-commercial group has more buy contracts that are open than that of sell (shorts) (43.7 thousand versus 37.6 thousand). This suggests that the bullish sentiment may indeed intensify in the coming months. Moreover, the technical picture for the pound is approximately the same as for the euro: quotes dropped to the low of the first round of correction against the upward trend and were unable to continue moving down. Therefore, the probability of a new round of the upward movement is high. As you can see, both Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and technical analysis predict approximately the same scenario. Consequently, we have the right to expect a return of the pound/dollar quotes to the level of 1.4240. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 17 Aug 2021 07:29 PM PDT EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading more actively on Tuesday than the day before. The price blatantly stood in one place on Monday, but on Tuesday, under the influence of rather interesting macroeconomic statistics and a rather important fundamental background, traders began to be more active. And this one immediately brought a good profit to those who follow our trading recommendations. However, first things first. First of all, it should be noted that the dollar's latest appreciation is highly likely associated with geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan. This is often the case: when tensions rise anywhere in the world or a military conflict breaks out, markets respond by increasing demand for "reserve currency" or "reserve assets." And the dollar is precisely the "reserve currency". It should also be noted that the dollar started rising at the US trading session, but it stood in one place during the European. Thus, it is the Americans who are most worried about the situation in Kabul. The European Union published a report on GDP for the second quarter (figure "1" in the chart), which traders completely ignored. For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that this is already the second assessment of the indicator and its value did not differ from the first. But the markets responded to a rather weak report on retail sales in the US (number "2" in the chart) by buying the dollar. Retail sales fell by 1.1% m/m in July, although the markets were expecting a reduction of no more than 0.2% m/m. However, it was the dollar that rose in the afternoon. There was no reaction to the report on industrial production (number "3" in the chart). Now let's deal with trading signals. Everything is very simple here, since only one trading signal was generated during the day - to sell at the beginning of the US trading session. Since we cannot conclude that the markets worked out the US retail sales report, the sell signal should have been worked out with a short position. After its formation, the price went down by about 30 points, but failed to reach the nearest target level of 1.1704. Therefore, it was necessary to manually close this deal in the late afternoon at a profit of 30 points. EUR/USD 1H
The pair's quotes have settled below the upward trend line on the hourly timeframe, so the trend has become downward again. The pair did not overcome the Senkou Span B line, so the bulls showed their weakness again. Unfortunately, at this time, geopolitics and tensions in Afghanistan come out on top for the markets, so the US currency may rise again for some time, although global fundamental factors speak against this. However, we would like to point out one important detail. The pair's quotes stopped falling just around the level of 1.1704 - the last local low. Thus, the bears also do not have enough strength to further pull down the pair. On Wednesday, we continue to recommend considering trading from important levels and lines. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1612, 1.1704, 1.1756, 1.1852, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1807) and Kijun-sen (1.1755) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union is set to publish an important index of business activity for July, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be published in the US. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the markets will somehow work out these events. Regarding the Fed minutes, the probability of ignoring it is 90%, simply because it is extremely rare that these documents contain information that is not yet known to the markets. As for the report on inflation in the European Union, everything will depend on how much the actual value does not correspond to the forecast. The forecast is 2.2% y/y. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair. COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 140 points during the last reporting week (August 3-9). Since the European currency has generally fallen in recent weeks, it is not surprising that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the bullish sentiment has weakened among professional traders. However, the euro/dollar pair has been declining in recent weeks very reluctantly, and major players have massively stopped closing buy contracts and open sell contracts. A group of non-commercial traders opened 11,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and 18,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for professional players decreased by another 8,000. However, the indicators below the chart show that although the net position continues to decline, the rate of its decline is decreasing. In addition, as we have already said, the euro dropped to the level of 1.1700, around which the probability of an upward reversal is very high. The first indicator shows that the green and red lines (net positions of the "non-commercial" and "commercial" groups) continue to move towards each other, which means the continued weakening of the upward trend. Recall that when the lines begin to narrow, it means the end of the current trend. However, at the same time, the situation on the chart looks just like a correction. Thus, we believe that at this time, both indicators are signaling exactly a correction. As before, we must not forget that the Federal Reserve has not yet completed the quantitative stimulus program, thanks to which the US economy continues to be pumped with money, which provokes an increase in inflation and an increase in the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, we are still expecting a new round of decline in the dollar. The sentiment of the major players remains bullish as the total number of buy contracts still exceeds the number of sell contracts. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ethereum's top 5 reasons why it can dominate the crypto market Posted: 17 Aug 2021 04:55 PM PDT
Ethereum is currently trading at a price of $ 3175 and is the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. What are the main reasons for the dominance of this cryptocurrency?
Applications that are based on Ethereum can have a significant impact on various public services. It will be possible to use the platform for trading derivatives or securities in the near future. Ethereum focuses on an unprecedented new level of innovation, which makes this network incredibly valuable. The Ethereum network is constantly being scaled and improved, as it is backed by a huge number of high-class developers and an extensive user base.
The creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, promised to switch to the Proof-of-Stake model at the end of this year, which is also referred to as Ethereum 2.0, where the reward system will be completely redesigned. In this model, miners will be replaced by transaction validators, which in turn, will lead to the fact that you will no longer have to face and solve various cryptographic problems. With the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 model, the main altcoin can surge to incredible heights and play the most significant role in the global financial digital system, as well as be more environmentally friendly compared to Bitcoin.
Here, the main altcoin also differs from digital gold, and there are 2 key indicators for this. The Ethereum transaction will be displayed in about 4-5 minutes, and in order to conduct a Bitcoin transaction, the user will need about 35-40 minutes on average. For Bitcoin, the main priority is security, which leads to the fact that the speed of the transaction significantly decreases. The coding language makes it difficult to crack the blockchain, but the speed suffers, and the new Proof-of-Stake update will provide users with the fastest possible opportunity to conduct transactions. According to many sources, the throughput of Proof-of-Stake will reach 15,000 transactions per second. This can put Ethereum on the scales with absolutely any centralized payment system when it comes to the speed of transactions.
Many people consider Bitcoin as an accumulative asset and protection against inflation, but Bitcoin has limited reserves, which are estimated at 21 million cryptomonets. Meanwhile, the main altcoin has an unlimited number of tokens. However, there are annual norms for the amount of Ethereum that is extracted during mining.
At the moment, investors no longer see the connection of bitcoin Ethereum and there is no longer a correlation in the market when Bitcoin rises or falls and pulls Ethereum with it. In 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum was only 0.95. At the moment, the price of bitcoin is not the key point in determining the price of Ethereum. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD/CAD further growth expected Posted: 17 Aug 2021 01:05 PM PDT
USD/CAD is still bullish. It may resume its growth as long as it stays above the uptrend line. The pair failed to retest the uptrend line in its previous attempts signaling strong buyers. As I mentioned in my previous analysis, USD/CAD could resume its growth if it jumped above the immediate former highs. Now it has decreased a little. It could come back to test and retest the former high of 1.2606 before resuming its growth. Trading ConclusionTechnically, USD/CAD is expected to resume its upwards movement after jumping above the former highs. 1.2700 psychological level is seen as an upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin comes back to retest buyers Posted: 17 Aug 2021 01:03 PM PDT At the time of writing, bitcoin was dropping after failing to resume its upwards movement. It was traded at 45,501. Actually, it moved somehow sideways in the short term. Technically, it has shown some overbought signals, so a temporary decline is natural. The outlook is still bullish, so we don't have to worry too much. BTC/USD could decline to retest some support levels before jumping higher. The current decline could help us to catch a new upward movement. Bitcoin has dropped by around 1.82% in the last 24 hours, losing $843.38, but it's still up by 0.06% in the last 7 days. The trading volume decreased by 2.35% in the last 24 hours, while its market cap dropped by 1.87%. BTC/USD Temporary Decline
Bitcoin failed to approach and reach the channel's upside line. Now it may come back down towards the uptrend line. Also, the weekly S1 (43,843.07) is seen as a downside target. Its incapacity to stabilize above the weekly pivot point (46,026.27) signaled strong selling pressure in the short term. This bearish momentum could be only a temporary one. The bias is still bullish as long as bitcoin stays above the uptrend line. Bitcoin could resume its growth within the ascending channel's body. A bullish pattern around the S1 or printed on the uptrend line could signal a new leg higher. Also, failing to reach the support levels and coming back above the weekly pivot point 46,026.27 may signal upside continuation. Only a valid breakdown below the uptrend line could invalidate the upside scenario and could signal a broader decline. OutlookBTC/USD could resume its decline if it stabilizes under the pivot point and if it makes a new lower low to drop and close below 45,260.01. The confluence area formed at the intersection between the uptrend line with the weekly S1 (43,843.07) could attract the price. A false breakout with great separation, a pin bar, or a major bullish engulfing pattern printed on these support levels could bring a new long opportunity. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 17 Aug 2021 12:56 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading more actively on Tuesday than on Monday and more than 60% of the days in recent weeks. The upward trend line has lost its relevance, as the price has overcome it in today's trading. However, before breaking the trend line, the price managed to bounce off it, which is not very good, since this rebound could be interpreted as a buy signal. However, we will consider the signals, but for now it should be said that the trend has changed to a downward one, but the price was unable to drop below the level of 1.1710 (1.1703), which is the previous local low. Therefore, until this level is overcome, further downward movement is in question. It should also be noted that today's downward movement seems to have been triggered by the current difficult situation in Afghanistan. At such moments, many market participants are looking for safe assets, which include the dollar. A buy signal did not bring profit to novice traders, but the price still went up 15 points, so a Stop Loss should have been set at breakeven, at which the deal was closed. The second sell signal could also be worked out, but 10 minutes before its formation on this timeframe, a similar signal was formed on the 5-minute one. Therefore, a short position there was opened faster. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The picture of the pair's movements on the 5-minute timeframe looks quite interesting on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the first buy signal was formed when the upward movement had already begun, but at the same time look at how well the price moved during the day. It spent almost all of its time in one direction and there were nearly no pullbacks. It's a pleasure to work with such movements. So, the signal formed around the levels of 1.1752 and 1.1756, when the price broke them. This was followed by an increase to the level of 1.1802, from which the price rebounded twice. Thus, novice traders could take profits either using Take Profit, or near the level of 1.1802. In any case, they would have made a profit. Trading tips for Wednesday: The EUR/USD pair has settled below the trend line on the 30-minute timeframe, so now the trend is already downward. However, we highly doubt the ability to overcome the 1.1710 level. Therefore, we recommend not to rush too much with new short positions. Nevertheless, the signals to sell from the MACD indicator can be considered, but taking into account the fact that the level of 1.1710 may be too tough for the bears. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1689, 1.1710 1.1752 (1.1756), 1.1802. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Wednesday, the European Union will publish the consumer price index, and the US will publish the Federal Reserve minutes. We believe that both of these reports can be ignored, but novice traders should still be prepared during their publication for an increase in price movement or reversal. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Afghanistan, China, New Zealand: dollar grows amid strengthening anti-risk sentiment Posted: 17 Aug 2021 12:55 PM PDT US macroeconomic reports continue to disappoint, but the US dollar is strengthening its position against the basket of major currencies with enviable persistence. For example, according to the results of today's release of data on retail sales, the EUR/USD pair impulsively declined to the bottom of the 17th figure. Although it was in the red zone, complementing the contradictory fundamental picture on the eve of the economic symposium in the city of Jackson Hole. This illogical behavior of the greenback is explained by the growth of anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. And the dollar is the beneficiary of the current situation, despite some problems.
Let me remind you that last Friday, a disappointing consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was published, which is a leading indicator of future spending. This month, it has fallen sharply, ending up at the level of 70.2 points (with a forecast of growth to 81 points). This is the weakest result in the last ten years. The comments to the report indicate that in the first half of the year, American consumers showed a "sharp decline in confidence", which is most likely due to the spread of the Delta coronavirus strain. Key data on the growth of US inflation were published two days before this report was released, which also did not impress investors. The consumer price index has slowed down its growth, which has been observed over the past four months. Today's report on the volume of retail trade in the United States only added to this picture. All components of the release were in the red zone, falling short of the forecast values. So, according to analysts' expectations, the overall indicator in July was supposed to fall to -0.2%. However, in reality, it came out much lower – at the level of -1.1%. Excluding car sales, the indicator showed a similar dynamic: with the forecast of a decline to the level of 0.2% (from the previous value of 1.6%), the indicator fell into the negative area, to the target of -0.4%. But despite everything, the dollar is growing throughout the market. Such an abnormal, at first glance, situation is explained by a combination of fundamental factors. First of all, the dollar took advantage of the growth of anti-risk sentiment among traders. The general nervousness was caused by the situation in Afghanistan, China's pressure in the digital sphere and the COVID panic in New Zealand. So, today it became known that a few days before the capture of Kabul, negotiations were held in Doha between representatives of the United States, the Taliban and the Afghan authorities. They agreed to stop the fighting and organize a transition of power in exchange for the resignation of Ashraf Ghani. However, the flight of the latter put an end to the agreement reached. According to Bloomberg, the American ambassador to Afghanistan is still in Doha, where he is trying to find new ways to resolve the situation, but in vain. The issue of ensuring peace in the Afghan capital in particular and in the country as a whole remains unresolved. According to a senior source of the agency, no changes in this direction are expected: the Taliban now have all the power in Afghanistan, "and they clearly do not want to divide it." Against the background of such a news flow, some analysts started talking about the possible expansion of the Taliban outside of Afghanistan. As for the "Chinese issue", which also causes concern for traders, here the "war" is going on on the digital front. The Chinese authorities announced that in the near future they will develop new laws to regulate the sectors that have recently become large against the background of the entire Chinese economy (digital economy, internet finance, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing). According to media reports, Beijing is concerned about the excessive increase in the power of Internet giants. The main concern is the monopolization of various sectors of the internet economy and the excessive concentration of capital. For example, the total capitalization of Alibaba, Ant and Tencent in the year before last was about $2 trillion. Beijing considers the current situation "unacceptable", anticipating a possible threat of the transfer of control over Chinese companies into the hands of international structures. Against this background, the People's Republic of China announced the tightening of the rules for the entry of Chinese companies on foreign exchanges. Anti-risk sentiment in the market has also increased "thanks" to New Zealand. This country defeated the pandemic at the beginning of the year – isolated cases of coronavirus infection were registered at the entry of citizens after foreign trips (that is, during the 14-day quarantine period). However, yesterday in Auckland, the first case of infection was detected inside the country. The reaction of the authorities was instant and harsh – because of one case of coronavirus, the country was "closed" for quarantine. And all this happened on the eve of the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which should announce an interest rate increase (which many experts already strongly doubt). Returning to the US retail sales data, it should be noted that the decline in indicators was due to a shortage of cars (production of cars slowed down due to a global shortage of semiconductors) and other goods. At the same time, experts note that spending on services can keep the US economy on the path of "strong growth" in the current quarter. Analysts interviewed by Reuters emphasize that the lion's share of consumer spending falls on services such as education, healthcare, and travel. While the only category of services in the retail sales report concerns the restaurant sector (which naturally sank in the States due to the spread of the delta strain). Probably, it is for these reasons that traders actually ignored today's release, demonstrating increased demand for the US currency.
Thus, any more or less large-scale corrective rise in the EUR/USD price can still be used to open short positions - to the middle of the 16th figure. From a technical point of view, the pair on the daily chart is located between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as below all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which indicates the priority of the downward movement. The main support level (the target of the downward movement) is 1.1650 - this is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The Dollar index is testing major resistance. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 12:15 PM PDT The Dollar index is very close to a major break out and an important new bullish signal. Price has formed a bullish cup and handle pattern within another cup and handle pattern. Price is now challenging the neckline resistance at 93.20.
The Dollar index if it breaks above the 93.20 it will provide an important bullish signal. If the break out occurs, I will be expecting the Dollar to continue to strengthen and push the index at least towards 94.10. The most probable target would be equal to the depth of the cup, this means a move towards 95.20-95.50 should be expected if price breaks out above resistance. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis on EURUSD for August 17, 2021. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 11:55 AM PDT EURUSD is in a bearish trend. Price has broken below the key support neckline at 1.1750 and activated a head and shoulders bearish pattern. Price bounced towards 1.18 back testing the broken neckline and got rejected. Price continues making lower lows and lower highs.
Blue lines - Pitchfork EURUSD is about to make new lows below 1.1706. Trend remains bearish. Our minimum target is the middle pitchfork line at 1.1615-1.16 area. As long as price is below 1.1805 short-term trend will remain bearish. The Head and shoulders pattern has much lower targets in order to be complete, however in order for these targets to be achieved, I would expect a bigger bounce in EURUSD to form a lower high first and then push lower. Short-term oscillators are providing bullish divergence signals, something decreases the chances of continuing lower in the near term. If the RSI provides new lows as price does, then bears will remain in full control of the trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 17 Aug 2021 11:50 AM PDT In our previous analysis on EURJPY we noted that the most probable path for price was to the downside and towards 127.85. Price has broken below the short-term support and moved outside of the consolidation range. Price is now testing 128.
Green rectangle- consolidation Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements Red horizontal lines - Fibonacci extension targets EURJPY has passed our 2nd Fibonacci extension target and is moving towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement which is our next Fibonacci target. The 127.85 is our next target and I remain confident that we are going to see this level and maybe lower prices too. Trend remains bearish as price continues making lower lows and lower highs. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin vulnerable to a move towards $42,000. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 11:39 AM PDT Bitcoin remains in a short-term bullish trend. Price continues making higher highs and higher lows. However as we mentioned in a previous post, the RSI is providing us with some bearish divergence signals implying that a pull back is imminent.
Red line - support Blue line - horizontal support Bitcoin has most probably made a short-term top at $48,042. Price is turning lower and I expect to see at least a pull back towards the red upward sloping trend line. My most probable pull back target is the blue horizontal support line around $42,000. I expect Bitcoin to make a higher low around $42,000 or lower before continuing its up trend. Resistance is important at $47,100 and if broken we could see a new higher high above $48,042. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 17. Pound ignores good data from Britain Posted: 17 Aug 2021 11:13 AM PDT
The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument is currently quite clear, but, unfortunately, it begins to get confusing. A couple of weeks ago, everything looked quite convincing: an impulse wave a was built, after which the construction of a corrective wave began, presumably b as part of the upward trend section. However, at the moment, the construction of wave b has not yet been completed, and the wave itself has taken a very long form, which casts doubt on the resumption of the increase in the quotes of the instrument in the near future. And it certainly casts doubt on the assumption that the new upward section of the trend is impulsive, as I assumed again a couple of weeks ago. Now the wave counting looks like another correction section of the trend, which can take a three-wave form. If you look at all the wave structures over the past six months, their distinctive feature is quite deep corrective waves. In addition, all these structures are corrective, so it is very difficult to expect the instrument to go beyond the range of 1.3600 – 1.4240. However, I am still waiting for the completion of the decline in quotes and the construction of a new upward wave, presumably c. The Pound/Dollar instrument fell by 110 basis points on Tuesday, and the movement began at night. That is, even before the opening of the stock exchange in London, the pound has already begun to decline. Not even waiting for the British economic reports. This is a rather strange behavior of the market. If the decline in quotes in the Euro/Dollar instrument began only in the afternoon, with the opening of the stock exchange in New York, which is at least a little logical, then it is very difficult to understand why demand began to fall for the pound at night. Moreover, the current wave counting has long assumed the completion of the decline in quotes and the resumption of growth. Moreover, reports on unemployment, wages, and applications for unemployment benefits were released early in the morning in the UK. And all three of these reports were better than the expectations of the markets. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits was -7,800. And wages increased by 8.8%. That is, these data should have caused at least not a strong, but an increase in the quotes of the pound. Instead, the pound sterling fell down today, like a twelve-pound ball thrown from a cliff. Very strange behavior of the market. Today, in a couple of hours, there will be another speech by Fed President Jerome Powell, but it is unknown whether the markets will even want to wait for him after such an active day. The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward wave, so at this time I propose to consider buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4240 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. The instrument is still at the stage of constructing a corrective wave 2 or b and its construction is clearly delayed, which may negatively affect the integrity of the current wave count.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has already acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the information background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should resume in the near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 17. European economy grows 2% per quarter Posted: 17 Aug 2021 10:56 AM PDT
The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains unchanged for the time being. However, today's decline in quotes by 60 basis points suggests that the wave e of the downward trend section may become more complicated and take a longer form. Although, the internal wave structure of this wave takes a five-wave form. If this is indeed the case, then the construction of the proposed wave 5 in e has now begun. Thus, in the near future, the construction of this wave can be completed, and the pair can still proceed to the construction of a new upward trend section. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level (the second in a row) may lead to a new departure of quotes from the reached lows. Thus, I expect the pair to move to the construction of a new upward trend section and I consider this option the most likely at this time. At the same time, a strong news background for the US currency may lead to a more significant complication of the downward trend section. The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was quite interesting on Tuesday, but the markets, unfortunately, did not pay due attention to it. Given that with the opening of markets in the US, the US currency began to grow strongly, we can assume that the US reports were strong. However, in reality, this is not the case. Let's start with the fact that in the morning, the report on European Union GDP for the second quarter was released. It is not surprising that the markets did not react to it in any way, since its value did not differ at all from the previous one. But it was quite difficult to find reasons for buying the dollar in the afternoon. The report on retail trade volumes in the US was much weaker than market expectations, -1.1% MoM, and the less important report on industrial production was slightly better than expectations, +0.9% MoM. However, even if these reports are considered together, it turns out that one is positive and the second is negative. That is, with any consideration of this issue, it turns out that the US currency should not have risen on Tuesday. Thus, I am inclined to the option that the markets are positively expecting the evening speech of Fed President Jerome Powell. Let me remind you that recently they have been waiting for words from Powell about his readiness to curtail the economic stimulus program, but they can't wait yet. Last week, several representatives of the Federal Reserve expressed their readiness to vote for the completion of the asset purchase program in September. But the main voice is the voice of Jerome Powell, who has so far remained silent on this issue. A higher dollar may mean that the markets believe in the Fed's readiness to curtail stimulus. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. Wave e may get a more pronounced five-wave internal structure, so the instrument may decline by another 50-60 points, however, according to the current wave counting, the completion of the construction of the downward section is still approaching. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level will indirectly once again indicate the readiness of the markets to buy the euro currency.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly began to take a more complex form, but it can still end in the near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Will bitcoin repeat the 2020 bull rally before the end of the year? Posted: 17 Aug 2021 10:11 AM PDT The third quarter is in full swing, the fourth is not far off. In 2020, October was the month after which a rapid rally began, raising bitcoin from $10,000 to $64,000. Based on the current picture, can we predict whether the same sharp momentum will be repeated by the end of the year as in 2020? Here it is worth remembering all the forecasts for the growth of the main cryptocurrency to $100,000 and above. Which may not be baseless. But Pete Humiston, manager of Kraken Intelligence Research, notes that the situation with bitcoin in the third quarter of 2021 is still significantly different from what it was in the fourth quarter of 2020. Despite the fact that bitcoin has grown from $29,000 to $48,000 in just one month, there is still no buying rush in relation to it. Humiston argues that you can verify this by looking at the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). It continues to trade at a discount of around 13% to the spot price this week. Demand seems to be growing slowly. As a result, we will probably see this discount disappear, as market participants seize the opportunity to get bitcoins at a discount, the expert notes. Two other factors characterize the current structure of the bitcoin market: low open interest in BTC futures and lower than expected funding rates. Both are in contrast to the start of the 2020 bullish trend and are at odds with trends given the pace of price increases over the past month. "During the time that bitcoin rose from 30,000 to 48,000, open interest fell. Nobody actually saw a massive BTC rally, which came as a surprise and not entirely normal," writes Pete Humiston. Well, 100,000 for one bitcoin may not be worth it yet. But there is still time until the end of the year. And in the market, you know, anything can happen, especially if the deal is about bitcoin. Although such a rally is probably not really necessary if you trade the market slowly, moving in short dips. In this case, bitcoin is very technical, and the next key milestones are quite clear. While there is a correction in the local range 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 between the two red dotted lines, it is worth waiting for a likely reversal from its support, and after that - either consolidation or a breakout and growth to 50,000-52,000. And finally, some news from influencers: Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital filed with the SEC to open a bitcoin futures ETF under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Galaxy Digital has previously applied for a spot bitcoin ETF but has not been approved. Notably, the company led by Mike Novogratz, which as of June 30, 2021, boasts $1.42 billion in assets under management, will not invest directly in bitcoin, but in bitcoin futures and other investment instruments. This move is logical after the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler just a few weeks ago announced the preference of the regulator - futures on BTC, rather than spot bitcoin. In the weeks following these comments, applications for ETF approval on Bitcoin Futures came from a number of funds. These included VanEck, Invesco, Goldman Sachs, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and Viridi Funds.
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| Bitcoin can break the downward cycle or fall due to a correction: what is most likely to happen? Posted: 17 Aug 2021 09:40 AM PDT Bitcoin continues to move around the $48,000 mark, where the key resistance zone of the entire bearish trend passes. The cryptocurrency was approaching a difficult selling area but bounced back to the upper border of the support zone. As of 14:00 UTC, the asset continues to consolidate around $46,400. The coin steadily approached the long-term resistance zone, forming two highs at $46,200 and $37,300. However, bitcoin subsequently created another rally high at $48,200. The current price rebound will likely be the reason for a local correction with claims for a breakdown of the main growth range. The market correction at this stage is quite logical and occurs within the upward trend from July 20. The cryptocurrency touched and bounced off the long-term downward trend that began with BTC's all-time high. In addition, the asset has formed a double top on the four-hour chart, which is also a prerequisite for a short-term correction. If this bearish pattern is realized, then blowouts could push the price to two key support levels. The first is at the midpoint of the growth range at $42,600. Here, a local upward reversal is possible, and if the bull manages to defend this line, the asset will quickly return to the growth zone. If this level is broken, the next support zone will be the level of $37,300, where a rising high was formed. Also, this area served as an excellent springboard and held bitcoin from breaking through to the middle of a wide range of fluctuations two months ago. If this zone is held, the market will receive a powerful bullish impulse and maintain the upward trend of July 20.
However, as of 14:00 UTC, technical analysis of the cryptocurrency points to pit weakening, which is a prerequisite for a powerful correction. The RSI has dropped past 40 on the 4-hour chart. The MACD continues its downward movement towards the zero level, and the stochastic has formed a bearish crossover and will soon leave the bullish zone. The weakness of bitcoin at the current stage indicates a strong resistance level that the asset is not ready to overcome. As a result, the bears will try to push the price as low as possible, but in any case, this stage should be viewed as an opportunity to buy more.
This is also evidenced by the daily state of technical indicators. The RSI is dipping into the 60 zone and the MACD indicates a continuation of the bullish momentum. At the same time, the stochastic gives clear signals for weakening. This may be an opportunity for the bears to aggravate the fall in bitcoin prices, but, most likely, sellers will not be able to push the asset below the long zone.
Bitcoin has shown clear signs of weakening over the past two weeks, but with the current market sentiment, the bears will only be able to profit locally from this correction. The cryptocurrency will hold one of two key support levels, consolidate and resume its upward movement. The market is dominated by restrained optimism, which indicates a willingness to wait and buy. Taking this into account, we expect a systematic waiting for an ideal position to buy back the next downward phase and further breakout to $46,400. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 17, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and key-levels. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 09:40 AM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement was to be expected towards 1.4025. On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. That's why, the pair remained trapped between the mentioned key-levels (1.3800 and 1.4025) until breakout occurs in any direction. Bearish breakout below 1.3800 will probably enable more bearish decline initialy towards 1.3670. While on the other hand, bullish breakout above 1.4025 will probably enable further bullish advancement towards 1.4100-1.4150. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 17, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunity. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 09:37 AM PDT
Earlier in June, one more upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure for a while. Breakout above 1.2175 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.2250 as an initial target. Further upside movement was expected to pursue towards the backside of the broken trend line. However, the pair has failed to do so. On the other hand, re-closure below 1.2175 was needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish again. Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where some bullish recovery has originated. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990 with special attention if the price level of 1.1990 is bypassed as this indicates further upside movement towards 1.2100. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices for a little time before the end of last week. That's why, bulls were waiting for another candlestick closure above 1.1780 for another ascending swing to be initiated. Initial targets are to be located around 1.1840 and 1.1910. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 17, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 09:36 AM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 was needed to establish a short-term downtrend. Shortly after, Bearish re-closure below 1.2100 then 1.2050 allowed more bearish domination. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1780. Recently, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. Recently, the bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed. Bullish rejection signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel. Currently, a bullish breakout above 1.1830 is needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin tramples at $47,500 mark. Bloomberg discovers name of Bitcoin's real creator Posted: 17 Aug 2021 08:51 AM PDT
Bitcoin has worked out the level of $47,500 several times over the past few days and bounced off it twice. Thus, for the time being, we can conclude that this level is too much for buyers, so the cryptocurrency has a good chance of starting a fall. However, we also remind you that there is still an upward trend line on the 4-hour timeframe, which continues to support buyers and maintain an upward trend. Thus, the price is now caught in a triangle between the level of $47,500 and the trend line. Whichever of these lines it will overcome, the movement will continue in that direction. Meanwhile, one of the Bloomberg analysts said that he knows who is hiding behind the mysterious name of Satoshi Nakamoto, who is credited with creating the first cryptocurrency in the world, as well as a fortune that is now estimated at about $61 billion. According to Eric Balchunas, the programmer Hal Finney, who died back in 2014, is hiding under the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney's name is quite well known in cryptocurrency circles, as the name of one of the founders of cryptocurrencies, who participated in the development of bitcoin, and also conducted the first bitcoin transaction together with Satoshi Nakamoto back in 2009. Balchunas came to this conclusion after he came across a message from Finney, which he left back in 1994 on a forum, and in which he described a principle that is very similar to the current technology of non-fungible tokens (NFT). Thus, we now know another alleged name of the creator of the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, who also owns about 750,000 to 1.1 million bitcoin coins according to various estimates. At the same time, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains rather weak. The problem is that there hasn't been any particularly positive news in the last few weeks. Nevertheless, bitcoin is up $18,000 and we have already questioned the reasons for such a strong growth. From our point of view, investors were just in a hurry to buy as many coins as possible lately, while the US adopted new tax legislation, which states that most of all bitcoin transactions will immediately fall into the "field of view" of the IRS, which will make many cryptocurrencies less attractive for investment. However, there is still no talk of a new "bullish" trend, and we still expect bitcoin to fall to the level of $29,700.
In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be in an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe and has worked out the level of $47,500 twice. This level is important as it is the low of April 26, as well as 50% of the movement from the absolute high of value to the low of 2021. At the moment, bitcoin cannot overcome this level, so again there are expectations of a new drop in quotes to the level of $29,700, which we are counting on. Thus, to sell cryptocurrency, you should wait for the price to consolidate below the trend line. The targets are $40,746 and $31,100. Overcoming the level of $47,500 gives way to new purchases with a target of $50,350. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| UK labor market approaching pre-crisis levels. GBP remains under pressure Posted: 17 Aug 2021 08:48 AM PDT
The tax data released today served as a clear sign of a steady recovery in the UK economy as it revealed a significant increase in the number of employed people in July, namely by 182,000 people. This growth in new jobs brings the labor closer to pre-pandemic levels. According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the number of vacancies in the country reached a record level of 953,000 between April and June, which is 168,000 more than before the pandemic. Many employers even say that it is becoming more and more difficult to find new employees. Sometimes there is no one to hire. From now on, around 28.9 million people are employed in the UK. This is only 201,000 less than the usual level that was observed in the UK until March 2020, or before the start of the coronavirus crisis. Another positive news for the British economy is that the overall unemployment rate in the country fell to 4.7% between March and May. At the same time, most analysts predicted that this indicator would not fall below 4.8%. It is hard to deny that job subsidies, which paid the wages of 8.9 million workers during the peak of the lockdown last year, have significantly supported the UK labor market. By the end of June this year, these payments were provided to 1.9 million workers. Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak noted that there are more employees in the UK today than at any time since March 2020, with the number of people on vacation being the lowest since the scheme was launched. All these promising data once again indicates that the British economy will emerge from the pandemic with less long-term damage than previously predicted. Based on the labor market report published today, experts at JPMorgan have changed their forecast for the first rate hike by the Bank of England, postponing it by six months until the second quarter of next year. At the same time, many economists are convinced that, despite clear signs of a recovery in the British economy, the Bank of England will not rush to raise interest rates and will wait until 2023. Meanwhile, the UK regulator officials admit that the current unemployment rate has already reached its peak, so another big jump is very unlikely. A record increase in wages in the country also adds to the market optimism. Average weekly earnings for the period between April and June rose by 8.8% (up from a year earlier) and are the highest since records began 20 years ago. Notably, people with lower incomes lost their jobs more often than people with much higher incomes. Despite the encouraging economic performance, the pound remains under pressure. The GBP/USD pair continues to decline. At the time of writing, it was trading at the level of 1.3756. Judging by the current dynamics, we can expect a decline up to the level of 1.3680 along with the negative EMA 50.
The US dollar, on the contrary, is showing a remarkable resilience today, having advanced against most major currencies in the course of the session. According to the CFTC report released a week ago, the demand for the US currency has returned to the levels that were last observed at the peak of coronavirus fears last year. Market participants are seeking more reliable investments and aggressively buying up the US dollar in an attempt to avoid risks. So, the risk aversion strategy seems to set the tone for today. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for Bitcoin, for August 17 - 18, 2021: Sell Below $46,957 Posted: 17 Aug 2021 08:25 AM PDT
Bitcoin (BTC) touched $ 47,961, the levels of May 16. BTC has tested this resistance zone twice and formed a double top as a result. It may be a sign of correction or a slowdown in the coming days. Volatility and the volume of purchases of BTC have reduced, as the Eagle indicator is showing a bearish divergence. It is likely to put downward pressure on BTC in the coming days. The 21 SMA around 46,500 located on 4-hour charts may provide some support to BTC as long as it trades above this line. Bitcoin is likely to try to climb towards the resistance level and psychological level of $ 50,000 (8/8). The level of $46,000 is the immediate support. If the price breaks this level, it may fall to the support of 6/8 of Murray ($43,750). This is the key level because there we can expect a new bullish rebound and an opportunity to buy BTC. On the contrary, if the bearish force prevails, a decline is expected to the support zone around the 200 EMA and the 4/8 Murray line located at $ 37,500. Our outlook will be bearish due to the factor of the double-top pattern and the Eagle indicator that is showing a bearish signal. We should wait for the BTC to trade below the SMA 21, and we can sell with targets at $ 43,750 and $ 37,500. Support and Resistance levels for August 17 - 18, 2021 Resistance (3) 49,859 Resistance (2) 48,876 Resistance (1) 47,451 ---------------------------- Support (1) 45,042 Support (2) 44,103 Support (3) 42,633 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD Hot Forecast, 17 August Posted: 17 Aug 2021 08:02 AM PDT
The GBP/USD pair extended the previous day's pullback from the 1.3875-80 resistance zone and witnessed some selling for the second consecutive day. The downward momentum dragged the pair to three-week lows around the 1.3785 region during the first half of the European session. Looking at the technical picture, the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 1.4000 psychological mark constituted the formation of a bearish double-top on the daily chart. This, along with the overnight rejection near a descending triangle support breakpoint, supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started drifting into the bearish territory and add credence to the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 1.3730-25 intermediate support zone, en-route the 1.3700 mark, remains a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling below the 1.3675 horizontal level will turn the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards the 1.3625 region. This is closely followed by the 1.3600 mark and multi-month lows around the 1.3570 region touched on July 20, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt beyond the 1.3800 mark might confront stiff resistance and meet some fresh supply near the 1.3840-50 region. This, in turn, should continue to cap the GBP/USD pair near the 1.3875-80 strong barrier, which if cleared might negate the near-term negative bias. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD Hot Forecast, 17 August Posted: 17 Aug 2021 08:02 AM PDT
The EUR/USD pair extended its daily slide in the early American session and was last seen trading at a fresh daily low of 1.1727, losing 0.42% on a daily basis. The 1.1800 neighbourhood now emerges as the immediate target for the EUR-bulls. If cleared, the recovery could target the July tops in the area just above the 1.1900 level where it is expected to struggle. Failure to re-test/surpass the 1.1800 area, ideally in the very near term, could encourage sellers to step in and drag spot once again to YTD lows near 1.1700. In the meantime, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side while below the critical level, today at 1.2005. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for Dow Jones #INDU, for August 17 - 18 2021: Sell Below 35,404 Posted: 17 Aug 2021 07:46 AM PDT
Wall Street opens lower due to the negative data from China and uncertainty about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed. The daily chart of the Dow Jones shows overbought levels, and investors are likely to take earnings ahead of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Investors are concerned about the increase in Covid-19 cases this time caused by the aforementioned variable Delta. Last week's data shows that US consumer confidence has sunk, something that could weaken the bullish bias of the Dow Jones. In addition, the FOMC minutes will be published on Wednesday. Investors are waiting for these minutes to get some signal about the intentions of the US central bank in relation to the start of the rollback of the monetary stimulus program. The Dow Jones #INDU has left a technical reversal pattern called the double top at the 35.612 area. This is a sign of a correction and a bearish movement for the next few hours. The graph shows that the Dow Jones is trading within an uptrend channel formed on the 4-hour charts. A breakout of this channel could accelerate the fall of the Dow Jones towards the 6/8 murray line located at 35.156. A technical bounce can occur at the murray 6/8 support line. It could be a good opportunity to buy around this zone. On the contrary, if the downward force prevails, we expect a downward movement. For this, we must wait for a break and consolidation below 35.156, the objective can be located in the area of the 200 EMA located at 34.922. As long as the Dow Jones 4-hour chart is trading below the 21 SMA at 35.473, the bearish pressure combined with the formation of the double-top pattern could continue to push the Dow Jones lower. The technical reading of the eagle indicator that measures the volume and strength of the market is showing a bearish signal, thus supporting our bearish outlook. Support and Resistance Levels for August 17 - 18, 2021 Resistance (3) 35,889 Resistance (2) 35,734 Resistance (1) 35,514 ---------------------------- Support (1) 35,341 Support (2) 35,141 Support (3) 34,938 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Markets continue to wait for "hawkish" rhetoric from Jerome Powell. Posted: 17 Aug 2021 07:45 AM PDT
US stock indices continue to break all imaginable and unimaginable records, and the markets continue to wait for Jerome Powell to change his rhetoric to a more "hawkish" one. The Fed will begin to curtail the quantitative stimulus program. Recall that, in general, the Federal Reserve continues to pour $ 120 billion into the American economy every month. Thus, most of this money continues to settle on the US stock market and some on the cryptocurrency market, whose capitalization has recently exceeded $ 2 trillion. However, what is good for the stock markets is bad for the national currency. After all, stock markets are growing now simply because there is more money in the economy. But the US dollar, although it has recently grown against both the pound and the euro, remains in the "risk zone" in the long term. Thus, the US dollar is waiting for the Fed to announce the end of the quantitative stimulus program, and only in this case can it receive long-term support. But stock indices, in this case, may experience some pressure over time. However, in the coming months, in any case, there is no question of completely stopping the injection of huge amounts of money into the economy. Therefore, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones may well continue to grow until the end of this year. As for Jerome Powell's speech, all market participants now need to clearly understand when the Fed will be ready to start curtailing the QE program. That is why a lot of attention will be focused on his every speech, and his every word will be examined under a microscope. However, Powell is unlikely to be frank with the markets tonight. Today, he will only answer questions within one of the virtual forums. But next week, an economic symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, and, according to many experts, there is a much greater chance that Powell will talk about the QE program at this event. According to most experts, we also recall that the Fed may announce the transition to the gradual completion of the QE program as early as September. Some experts expect this to happen in November or December. A lot will depend on how the macroeconomic data will be published in August and early September. In the United States, there is now a surge in the incidence of "coronavirus," and, for example, the consumer confidence index has fallen very much. In principle, any economic indicator can significantly deteriorate under the influence of a new "wave" of the pandemic. And this can have a very serious impact on the pace of recovery of the American economy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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