Forex analysis review

Forex analysis review


Forecast for EUR/USD on August 20, 2021

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 08:16 PM PDT

EUR/USD

The euro was down 32 points on Thursday. It still has about the same amount to go down to reach the target level of 1.1640. The Marlin Oscillator has slowed down the rate of decline and the advance to 1.1640 may take two or even three days.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is already consolidating below the level of 1.1705. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways. Consolidation is likely to continue below the level of 1.1705. If the price goes above it, this might strengthen the correction to the MACD line to the 1.1730 area.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 20, 2021

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 08:16 PM PDT

GBP/USD

The British pound dropped 114 points yesterday, breaking the target range of 1.3646/70. Now, most likely, the price will try to reach the next target of 1.3538 (high on December 4, 2020). The Marlin Oscillator has the potential for an even deeper decline, roughly corresponding to the target price level of 1.3428.

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A convergence has not formed on the four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator may now go deeper into the oversold zone as the pound moves to the target level of 1.3538. We still expect a correction from this level.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 20, 2021

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 08:16 PM PDT

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a good move by falling 82 points yesterday, and has reached the target level of 0.7124 this morning. Below which is the second target level of 0.7060, but since today is Friday, investors can close positions to take all weekly profits, so a correction from 0.7124 is more likely to occur. On a daily scale, the Marlin Oscillator is flat.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin is rising against a decline in price, signaling a correction. At the moment, the MACD line limits the price's growth, approximately in the area of 0.7255, although the price does not necessarily have to rise there in its corrective growth.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 20, 2021

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 08:16 PM PDT

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair's dreams to overcome external pressure and rise to 111.39 collapsed a quarter step before the price consolidated above the MACD indicator line on the daily scale chart.

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On Thursday, the price touched this line and fell below the target level of 109.80. The Marlin Oscillator begins a downward reversal without reaching the zero line, and there is now a downward trend towards the target of 109.20.

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On a four-hour scale, yesterday's price exit above the MACD line is now interpreted as false, therefore, further price movement is most likely downward now. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the zone of positive values, but with its transition to the negative zone, the pressure on the price will increase. We are waiting for the yen at the target level of 109.20.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 20. Boris Johnson came under a barrage of criticism in Parliament over the withdrawal

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 06:42 PM PDT

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -161.1639

The British pound, paired with the US dollar, continued to fall for most of the day on Thursday. While the European currency at least tried to adjust a little, the pound was falling. At the same time, it is quite difficult to say the true reasons for this fall in the British currency? Recall that the pound made an impressive leap up by 400 points in 7 working days three weeks ago. Then it seemed that the downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe was broken, as the bulls managed to go beyond the previous local highs. However, a rebound followed from the level of 1.3978, as on June 22, which provoked a new fall within the downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, which is still interpreted as a global correction against the global upward trend on the 24-hour TF. It follows that until the update of its previous local minimum on July 20, the chances of ending the current downward trend are still preserved. However, they are melting just before our eyes, since out of 400 points gained three weeks ago, the pound has already lost 320. However, it took three times longer to do this, which still makes us think about what reasons the dollar's growth can be in general? Nothing else comes to mind, except the traders' belief that the Fed will become the first central bank out of the three central banks we are interested in, which will curtail the quantitative stimulus program and raise the rate. However, whatever the current fundamental background, it should be noted that both channels of linear regression are still directed downwards. The moving average line is directed downwards. Therefore, all trend indicators are now signaling a downward movement.

At this time, Boris Johnson, who followed the example of Joe Biden and ordered the withdrawal of British troops from Afghanistan, came under a barrage of criticism in the British Parliament. It turned out that quite a lot of veterans of the Afghan campaign gathered in the House of Commons, who called the current government's decision "shameful, cowardly and humiliating." During the last session of Parliament, Johnson was constantly interrupted and prevented from making a speech. When this or that veteran of Afghanistan spoke, there was dead silence in the hall. Former Prime Minister Theresa May said that Johnson's decision would have serious consequences. China and Russia will "conclude" because of the withdrawal of American and British troops from Afghanistan. According to May, Britain should not have followed the example of America and should have assembled a new alliance to protect Afghanistan from the Taliban. "What is the point of talking about NATO if we all depend on Washington's decisions?" asked Theresa May. However, according to Johnson himself, the UK has achieved its goal in Afghanistan, and without the support of American troops, it would not have been able to keep the country under its control. Johnson said that the country was cleared of militants of the Al-Qaeda terrorist group, and Afghans had the opportunity to receive a good education and protection of women's rights in the last 20 years. Johnson also said that his administration had approved a program for resettling refugees from Afghanistan. Over the next five years, Britain will accept about 20 thousand immigrants who want to escape the Sharia regime and are being persecuted by the Taliban.

It is not the first time Boris Johnson has come under criticism from the British Parliament and opposition forces. And the pound, meanwhile, continues to fall due to a new political crisis in Britain. At the same time, the pound itself is getting cheaper, and the US dollar is getting more expensive. We have already listed the reasons for strengthening the US currency in the article on the euro/dollar. Therefore, the general conclusions at the moment are as follows: (1) the downward trend continues; (2) the pound is getting cheaper, and the dollar is getting more expensive; (3) until the mark of 1.3570 is overcome, the chances of ending the downward trend remain, but they melt with each new advance of the pair down. Therefore, it is advisable to consider buying the pair not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line and turning up at least one linear regression channel.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 76 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Friday, August 20, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3565 and 1.3733. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3641

S2 – 1.3611

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3672

R2 – 1.3702

R3 – 1.3733

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe continues to be located below the moving average and the downward movement, which is increasing. Thus, today, it is necessary to remain in the pair's sales with the targets of 1.3611 and 1.3565 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upwards. Buy orders should be considered if the price is fixed back above the moving average line with targets of 1.3824 and 1.3855 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi turns down.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 20. The Fed is the hope and support for the US currency.

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 06:42 PM PDT

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -101.8977

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday. The main thing is that the strengthening of the US currency continues. And we need to understand the reasons for this growth and determine the prospects of the currency pair for the next few days and weeks. Let's start with "technology." Since the price is located below the moving average line, and both linear regression channels are directed down, the direction of the trend does not raise any questions. Therefore, traders should still trade more actively on the downside, and long positions can be considered when at least one of the linear regression channels turns up. It should also be noted that the volatility of the euro/dollar pair remains very weak, about 50 points a day. Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar cannot be called strong either. Instead, the pair's quotes continue to "slide" down, but one way or another – this is the growth of the US dollar. We have been waiting for a long time for the pair to start forming a new upward trend. Several global fundamental factors speak in favor of this at once. However, recently, several factors have also appeared that speak in favor of continuing the growth of the US dollar. These factors appeared literally in the last few weeks. Recall that it all started with the Fed meeting the day before last, at which, for the first and last time, Jerome Powell spoke about the possible curtailment of the QE program. For the next two months, Powell did not say a word about this program and its possible curtailment.

However, then this was enough for the markets to make the dollar rise by 250 points. And then, another kind of news began to arrive, hinting that the American regulator could start curtailing the QE program as early as 2021. Macroeconomic statistics supported it. Recall that the consumer price index has risen to 13-year highs in recent months, and Non-Farms account for almost 1 million new jobs outside the agricultural sector for two consecutive months. Well, last week, several representatives of the Fed's monetary committee announced their readiness to vote "for" curtailing the stimulus program at the September meeting. Thus, all this significantly improves the prospects of the US currency. However, it does not cancel the original plan, according to which the US dollar can start a new long-term decline at any time.

We want to focus readers' attention on the fact that the Fed will not curtail the QE program in one day. Therefore, at this time, the situation is simply escalating before the September meeting of the Fed. And when the regulator announces the possible or exact timing of the completion of the incentive program, this will mean a gradual reduction in the volume of this program. In other words, the injections into the American economy will not stop overnight. But now, they are about $ 120 billion a month, and they will be 100 or 80 billion over a certain period. Then they can be reduced a little more. In general, freshly printed money will still flow into the American economy, inflating the money supply. Therefore, the dollar still has an excellent chance of starting a new fall within the global downward trend (ascending - for the euro/dollar pair). What is the basis for the growth of the US currency now? Only on the market's expectations that the Fed will begin to curtail QE in the near future, which means tightening monetary policy and gives hope for a faster increase in the key rate. However, these are all expectations, not specifics. Therefore, we still do not believe too much in the dollar's prospects and still expect it to fall.

I want to touch on the topic of Afghanistan separately. At this time, the US currency may also become more expensive due to the difficult situation in Kabul. As we have already said, the markets do not like various military conflicts, military coups, a change of power in the country, and any geopolitical tensions. The US currency often grows at such moments, as the demand for it as a safe-haven currency increases.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 20 is 58 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1628 and 1.1744. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1688

S2 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1749

R3 – 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of downward movement. Thus, today, you should stay in short positions with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1628 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Purchases of the pair will be possible if the pair is fixed above the moving average line with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1810, and they should be kept open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Mike McGlone: Ethereum might be the reason why Bitcoin is not continuing its growth

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 05:00 PM PDT

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According to McGlone, Ethereum, with its hype and mainstreamness, is the only factor that is holding back Bitcoin's growth.

He is confident that Bitcoin has all the prerequisites to continue its bullish movement, but the development of Ethereum by leaps and bounds, its mainstream adaptation, the imminent release of the new Ethereum 2.0 model prevent the main digital asset from breaking through the level of $ 100,000. McGlone responded with regard to the fair value of Ethereum and stated that Ethereum has every chance to surpass Bitcoin in the future both in terms of the number of hodlers who store it on their wallets and in terms of global capitalization. If so, it can become the number one cryptocurrency.

The entrance of Ethereum into the mainstream slows down Bitcoin's breaking through of its historical highs very much. People are beginning to realize that the ETH network is a real magic wand, a payment block for all financial technologies. NFT is also one of the main prerequisites for the accelerated growth of Ethereum.

Currently, non-interchangeable tokens are extremely discussed and popular. More and more people are turning their attention to NFTs, which are built on the Ethereum network – this is one of the main catalysts for the growth of Ethereum's price. McGlone emphasized that Ethereum is unlikely to break through the mark of $ 20,000 this year, but it can surpass the price of $ 4000-5000 by the end of the 4th quarter.

The number of new or zero Ethereum wallets has also increased, and there are more and more holders and addresses that store at least 1000 or more ETH on their accounts. At the moment, Ethereum is trading at a price of $ 3,000, and the main driver for overcoming the $ 3,000 level was the launch of the London hard fork.

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Bitcoin ends its temporary decline

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:52 AM PDT

Bitcoin rallied in the last hours and it seems poised to come back higher. It has increased after reaching strong support levels. I've mentioned earlier that BTC/USD could register only a temporary decline before jumping higher. The volume is up by 0.04% in the last 24H.

It's located at 45,511.69 below 45,950 today's high. BTC/USD has increased by more than 4.5% today. Still, we need confirmation that the price of Bitcoin will jump towards 50,000 psychological level. The bias is still bullish, so we can search for long opportunities.

BTC/USD bounce back

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BTC/USD dropped after its failure to stabilize above 45,998.71 weekly pivot point. It has retested the uptrend line failing to reach and retest the weekly S1 (43,813.93) level. As you already know from my analysis, Bitcoin is bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line.

The weekly pivot point is seen as a static resistance. Jumping and stabilizing above it may signal further growth. The bullish engulfing pattern printed earlier signals strong buyers. Technically, only a valid breakout below the uptrend line could invalidate an upside continuation.

Bitcoin forecast

Jumping and closing above the 45,998.71 weekly pivot point is seen as a bullish signal. 48,190 higher high is seen as a near-term upside target. Only a new higher high could validate a larger upwards movement.

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USD/CAD ignores all upside obstacles

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:50 AM PDT

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USD/CAD registered amazing growth after jumping above 1.2606 high, an upside obstacle. Now it is located at 1.2808 after ignoring the higher high of 1.2775 which was seen as a potential target and as a resistance level.

Technically, USD/CAD could decline a little after the current upwards movement. It could come back to test and retest the 1.2775 level, a former high, before resuming its growth.

Trading conclusion

Jumping above 1.2775 signals further growth, an upside continuation. A temporary decline could help us to catch a new upside momentum. 1.2850 and 1.2900 psychological levels are seen as upside targets.

A break above 1.2775 followed by a minor sideways movement, or consolidation, is seen as a buying opportunity.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 19. Pound took FOMC protocol closer to heart

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:43 AM PDT

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The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument still looks quite clear at this time, but, unfortunately, it begins to get confusing. The assumed wave b continues its construction and it turns out to be too deep. Although the second chart (below) clearly shows that waves a and b of the previous upward trend section are also almost the same size, which did not prevent the instrument from rising by another 600 basis points later. However, the current wave b casts doubt on the assumption that the new upward section of the trend is impulsive. Now the wave counting looks like another corrective section of the trend, which can take a three-wave form. And the assumed wave b may well correspond in size to wave a. That is, equal to 90-100 percent of its size. If you look at all the wave structures over the past six months, their distinctive feature is quite deep corrective waves. In addition, all these structures are corrective, so it is very difficult to expect the instrument to go beyond the range of 1.3600–1.4240. However, I am still waiting for the completion of the decline in quotes and the construction of a new upward wave, presumably c.

The Pound/Dollar instrument fell by 85 basis points on Thursday. There was no news background for the British pound today, although the markets could continue to increase demand for the dollar due to yesterday's FOMC protocol. Although usually if there is news of this scale, the demand for the US dollar decreases or increases simultaneously for both instruments. In our case, the euro currency has not lost anything today, and the British pound has lost 85 points. In both cases, the wave structures of the downward trend section and the waves look fully equipped. And a further decline in quotes will lead to the need to refine the wave count. Thus, I would say that a further decline in the quotes of both instruments is not necessary for the market and will only confuse the whole picture. A report on changes in retail trade volume is scheduled for Friday in the UK, and this will be the last interesting event of the week of an economic nature. The pound urgently needs market support, so it will count on strong retail trade data. In addition, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3644 mark is possible, which corresponds to 38.2% according to Fibonacci, which will also indicate the possible beginning of the construction of an upward wave c. Nothing interesting will happen in the United States tomorrow.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward wave, so at this time I propose to consider buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4240 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. The instrument is still at the stage of constructing a corrective wave 2 or b and its construction is being greatly delayed, which can negatively affect the integrity of the current wave count.

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The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has already acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the information background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should resume in the near future.

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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 19. Markets continue to rejoice at growing chances of Fed stimulus removal

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:11 AM PDT

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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains unchanged for the time being. The decline in quotes yesterday and today by 60 basis points allowed the expected wave e to take a five-wave form. However, even a successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level does not yet allow us to assume an even greater complication of the downward wave e. This wave now looks quite convincing, so the construction of a corrective set of waves suggests itself. Moreover, today the instrument has already increased by 35 basis points but has already made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci mark from below. Thus, despite all the apparent completeness of the proposed wave e, there is still a possibility that the decline in quotes will resume, and the entire section of the trend will become more complicated once again.

The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was almost zero on Thursday. However, all the most interesting things happened not this afternoon, but late last night and tonight. It should be noted right away that few people really expected anything important from the Fed minutes. And they were right. Since there was no new information unknown to the markets in the protocol published in the evening. The whole point of the protocol was that several FOMC members (out of 19) already support the curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program. Moreover, the exact number of them is not specified in the protocol. There may be 5 of them, or there may be 10. The protocol also reflects the concerns of some members about high inflation values in recent months, as well as a possible slowdown in the economic recovery amid the growing number of cases of coronavirus infection in the United States.

Thus, in general, the mood of FOMC members is becoming more "hawkish" on the issue of tightening monetary policy. But no concrete decisions have been made yet. No specific dates for the completion of QE have yet been named. The markets can only expect that Jerome Powell will touch on this topic next week in Jackson Hole, or the Fed will announce this after its next meeting in September. Nevertheless, the demand for the US currency has been growing in recent days and even weeks, which allowed the current section of the trend to take a five-wave form. Today, a report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits was released in America. Their total number decreased to 2.82 million as of the beginning of August. Thus, the real unemployment rate continues to decline, which gives reason to hope for the curtailment of the QE program in September or November.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. Wave e has received a more pronounced five-wave internal structure, so now I expect the beginning of building an upward set of waves or complicating the current trend section. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci (1.1704) will indicate the readiness of the markets to buy the instrument. If the markets find the strength to keep the instrument above the 17th figure, then I advise you to buy euros for each MACD signal "up" in order to build a new upward set.

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The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly began to take a more complex form, but it can still end in the near future.

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AUD/USD deeper drop is imminent

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:02 AM PDT

AUD/USD dropped significantly and now it stands at 0.7174 far below yesterday's high of 0.7269. It has accelerated its sell-off as the Dollar Index rallied after the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The pair has recovered a little in the last hours only because the DXY slipped lower from today's high of 93.52. AUD/USD is still under massive pressure, so a temporary rebound could only help us to catch a new downside movement.

The aussie has plunged despite the fact that the Australian data came in better than expected in the early morning. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.6%, even if specialists have expected to see an increase to 5.0%, while the Unemployment Change was reported at 2.2K versus -45K expected.

On the other hand, the US Unemployment Claims dropped from 377K to 348K, far below 362K expected.

AUD/USD massive sell-off

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AUD/USD has dropped as much as the 0.7144 level. Now it has raised a little to retest the broken lower median line (lml). It has dropped within the descending pitchfork's body. For the first time, AUD/USD could stabilize outside of the pitchfork's body.

Stabilizing under the lower median line (lml) could signal a further drop towards the 150% Fibonacci line or even lower towards the 0.7100 psychological level.

AUD/USD outlook

The bias is bearish, so AUD/USD could drop towards 0.7100 in the short term. Only a strong bullish pattern could announce a new leg higher and could bring us new long opportunities. We cannot talk about this scenario as long as AUD/USD is strongly bearish.

The lower median line (lml) retest could bring new short opportunities, bearish signals, on lower timeframes.

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EUR/USD downside movement is far from being over

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 10:01 AM PDT

EUR/USD dropped as expected as the DXY has registered fresh highs. As I've mentioned in my previous analysis, the pair could resume its decline after failing to confirm a strong rebound.

It has dropped below strong support levels, so a further decline is favored. EUR/USD has increased a little to retest the broken downside obstacles before moving down.

The greenback has received a helping hand from the US Unemployment Claims. The economic indicator dropped unexpectedly lower, from 377K to 348K, below 362K expected. The euro has increased a little versus its rivals after the eurozone Current Account increased from 13.9B to 21.8B while specialists expected to see a drop to 12.3B.

EUR/USD confirms its breakout

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EUR/USD has found support on the S2 (1.1669) and now is retesting the 1.1704 former static support and upside 50% Fibonacci line. The bias is bearish if the price stabilizes under these levels.

Also, EUR/USD could extend its decline as long as it stays below the black downtrend line. 1.1704 was seen as major static support. The current breakout followed by the retest signals a valid breakout.

EUR/USD forecast

A new lower low, dropping and stabilizing below 1.1665 level could activate a broader drop and could be seen as a selling opportunity. The S3 (1.1633) is seen as the next downside target, while 1.16 could be a major target and an obstacle as well.

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Bitcoin: Two Good Reasons for a Bullish Forecast

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 09:31 AM PDT

Bitcoin has been declining all week and is testing the support of the 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 corridor between the two red dotted lines for the third day. But the level of 44,807.24 is still quite solid. This technical picture is still relevant for all short-term technical forecasts: recovery in the specified sideways or a deeper correction to the level of 41,980.24 in case of going down from the specified corridor.

Although the daily candle has not yet closed, a bullish engulfing reversal pattern is emerging near the support level of 44,807.24. This means that a sideways reversal looks more likely. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

While everything is clear locally, let's look above - at the long-term picture and fundamental factors on which the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency will depend. And after bitcoin, altcoins will catch up.

One of the main factors behind most long-term bullish forecasts is widespread adoption and exponential growth. Numerous opinions that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 are no longer surprising, and this figure ceases to seem transcendental. But analyst Scott Melker believes that in the longer term, the main cryptocurrency will become a "seven-figure asset".

Melker calls the SEC permission to create cryptocurrency ETFs a key condition for this. Now the Commission is awaiting a decision on applications from many well-known companies. Once the green light goes on for these funds, Bitcoin could outperform gold in terms of market capitalization.

The conclusion seems logical, as the emergence of numerous crypto ETFs will open up opportunities for institutional and retail investors to simply invest in the main cryptocurrency.

Melker believes that the approval of funds will create an inflow of investments from various funds, and if they invest only 1-2 percent of their funds in bitcoin, this will lead to a significant increase in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market.

Another fundamental reason for Bitcoin's growth is its advantage over gold in many ways, including its characteristics and value.

"The deflationary asset mathematically proves its superiority over gold in all respects. With halving, the supply of bitcoins is halved every four years. In the future 10-20 years, I think bitcoin will easily become a seven-figure asset," the analyst said.

What about gold? Gold is "pretty much dead and Bitcoin will replace it as the best option," Melker said.

Another analyst, nicknamed Pentoshi on Twitter, echoed Melker's predictions. But he went even further and stated that in the current market he would choose Bitcoin over Ethereum. And the main cryptocurrency "will remind everyone who is king here."

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August 19, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 09:05 AM PDT

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Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where a sideway consolidation range was established.

During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after.

Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices before the end of last week.

On the other hand, intraday traders are waiting for another candlestick closure above 1.1780 for another ascending swing to be initiated.

Initial targets are to be located around 1.1840 and 1.1910.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

August 19, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 09:01 AM PDT

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Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 allowed the current short-term downtrend to be established.

Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1770 and 1.1700.

So, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline.

The bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed.

Bullish signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel.

Bullish breakout above 1.1830 was needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970.

Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.1700 will probably enable further bearish decline towards 1.1650 and 1.1600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

August 19, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 08:59 AM PDT

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Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement.

On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline.

Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement was to be expected towards 1.4025.

On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated.

That's why, the GBPUSD pair remained trapped between the mentioned key-levels (1.3800 and 1.4025) until recent bearish breakout occurred Yesterday.

Bearish breakout below 1.3800 enabled more bearish decline towards 1.3670 while the price level of 1.3520 is expected to be reached if sufficient bearish pressure is maintained.

While on the other hand, bullish breakout above 1.3800 will probably initiate another bullish movement towards 1.3880 and 1.4100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for Bitcoin for August 19 - 20, 2021: Buy above $ 43,750

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 07:42 AM PDT

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Bitcoin price was trading at 44,273 this morning of the American session, close to the strong 6/8 Murray support located at 43,750. We believe there could be a further bullish momentum for Bitcoin due to the formation of a descending wedge pattern.

The 21 SMA located on the 4-hour chart at 45,500 could offer some resistance if BTC starts a bullish cycle, a sharp break above the technical pattern and a consolidation above the 21 SMA could quickly rise to the resistance to 7/8 of Murray located at 46,875 and could reach up to the psychological level of 50,000 (8/8).

Conversely, a break and consolidation below 6/8 of Murray and below the descending wedge pattern may provide an opportunity to sell below 43,000 with targets at 39,703 (EMA 200). If the bearish force continues to prevail, it could go up to the 4/8 Murray level near 37,500.

Our outlook will continue to be bullish for BTC only if it holds above 6/8 Murray with short-term targets towards the level of 50,000. The Eagle indicator is showing an oversold signal with a probability of a new bullish momentum in the next hours.

Support and Resistance Levels for August 19 - 20, 2021

Resistance (3) 47,376

Resistance (2) 46,661

Resistance (1) 45,551

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Support (1) 43,537

Support (2) 43,009

Support (3) 41,889

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for GBP/USD for August 19 - 20, 2021: Buy above 1.3671

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 07:14 AM PDT

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Yesterday after the publication of the FOMC minutes, the British pound began a fall to the low of 1.3664. Today in the American session it has found some support around this level since there is the 0/8 of Murray.

In summary, the FOMC minutes have shown that there is growing support for reducing the bank's bond purchase program in the coming months. This data has helped the US dollar gain ground against its crosses, and the British pound fell more than 120 pips.

By the end of July when this FOMC meeting took place everything seemed to be going well. However, August consumer confidence plunged below pandemic lows and the retail sales figures were severely disappointing in July. In addition, the Delta variant of COVID-19 continues to affect the economic recovery.

According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD has reached an important support around 0/8 of Murray. This is the key level because on March 24, April 12 and July 21, it has given a strong boost to the British pound. From there it could rise about 380 pips on average.

Therefore, it is important to watch the level of 1.3671. If the British pound consolidates above this level or makes a double bottom in this area, it will be a sign of a bullish rebound with targets towards the SMA 21 located at 1.3773 and up to the strong resistance of 1.3822 (EMA 200).

The technical reading of the Eagle indicator that measures the volume and strength of the market is showing an oversold signal with an imminent technical rebound for the next few hours. It may favor our bullish outlook in the short term.

Support and Resistance Levels for August 19 - 20, 2021

Resistance (3) 1.3745

Resistance (2) 1.3717

Resistance (1) 1.3701

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Support (1) 1.3653

Support (2) 1.3610

Support (3) 1.3563

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A trading tip for GBP/USD for August 19 - 20, 2021

Buy above 1.3671 (0/8 of Murray), with a take profit at 1.3773 (SMA 21) and 1.3822 (EMA 200), a stop loss below 1.3630.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum broke through $3,000 and continues to decline: why is it good

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 07:01 AM PDT

After a powerful rally to $3,300, Ethereum begins to lose ground and decline. Today, August 19, the cryptocurrency broke through an important support level at $3,000 and as of 13:00 UTC, it is quoted at $2,900. At the same time, the coin has not yet exhausted its margin of safety, and bullish signals are visible on technical indicators, which the market is not in a hurry to implement yet. And this is good since, at the current stage, ether needs to pause to continue a healthy price rally above the $3,300 mark.

The main problem of ETH at this stage is the increasing discrepancy between trading volumes and price growth. This circumstance indicates certain unreasonableness of the rapid growth of the quotes of the altcoin. And unlike bitcoin, ether failed to correct the situation. The same applies to the on-chain indicators of the cryptocurrency. After the hype from the hard fork subsided, the coin began to lose its audience, but the price continued to move up. This discrepancy was partially offset by the fact that the recent rally of the asset was caused by the operations of institutional investors, while the retail audience remained distrustful. All these factors were not decisive, but raised concerns about the validity of the ETH rally. Given this, the market correction of the asset looks like a very useful tool for eliminating these discrepancies.

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At the same time, it is absolutely obvious that the market has not yet exhausted the current reserve of interest in the altcoin. Firstly, this is evidenced by the activity of unique addresses that defended their positions and showed interest in purchases. In addition, the supply of ETH on the main cryptocurrency exchanges continues to decrease, which also indicates the interest of market participants. Also, this reduces the pressure of sellers on the asset, which confirms the fact that the correction of the ether is of a technical and health-improving nature. It also adds positive indicators of the seven-day MVRV, which remains in the negative zone and indicates the continued growth of interest in the cryptocurrency. It also indicates that there is no prospect of profit-taking, which could worsen the fall of the altcoin.

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The interest in altcoin is also clearly visible on the one-hour chart. Buyers have already started buying off the price and are trying to return the asset above $3,000. Stochastic indicates a likely bullish breakout, but the RSI remains below the 50 mark. At the same time, the MACD indicates the continuation of consolidation and sideways movement. The four-hour chart shows more signals to weaken, but the tendency to enter $3,000 is still strong.

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The daily chart shows the formation of powerful bullish signals, which can increase many times over if the ether manages to jump by $3,000 by the end of the day. At the moment, the situation around the quotes of the ETH/USDT pair is stable. The correction is of a technical nature and, most likely, tomorrow the altcoin will return to growth. A small drop in price will allow the asset to close the difference in price and on-chain indicators, which will strengthen the future rally.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signal for EUR/USD for August 19 - 20, 2021: Buy above 1.1670

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 06:26 AM PDT

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Yesterday, the minutes of the FOMC were published. In summary, they signal a reduction of assets purchases. After receiving this information, investors sold euros and bought dollars until the end of the American session.

Analyzing the background of the FOMC minutes, we can conclude that if the Fed actually reduces its bond purchase program this year and prints fewer dollars, USDX could strengthen against other currencies and the euro could fall to the level of 1.15 in the short term.

However, the US economic recovery may not be strong enough to carry out this plan in the coming months and could be postponed because August consumer confidence plunged below pandemic lows and Retail sales figure seriously disappointed investors in July. In addition, the Delta variant of Covid-19 continues to affect the economic recovery.

According to the 1-hour chart, we can see that EUR/USD has fallen to the -1/8 murray support level around 1.1665, forming a downtrend channel and is rebounding from the bottom of the channel.

The euro is approaching the key level of 21 SMA. If it manages to consolidate above 1.1695, it could continue the technical rebound to the top of the bearish channel around 1.1745.

In addition, the 200 EMA acts as a strong resistance. Yesterday, with the first reaction of the market to the FOMC minutes, the euro made a price jump reaching 1.1742 (200 EMA). It fell back from there due to strong resistance and retreated to the low of 1.1665 (-1/8).

On the other hand, if the downward pressure leads it to test the -1/8 murray support around 1.1670 again and if the euro consolidates around this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy with the targets at 1.1718 and 1.1745 (EMA 200).

The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal which supports our bullish outlook for the next few days.

Support and Resistance Levels for August 19 - 20, 2021

Resistance (3) 1.1762

Resistance (2) 1.1733

Resistance (1) 1.1713

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Support (1) 1.1664

Support (2) 1.1632

Support (3) 1.1618

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Trading tip for EUR/USD for August 19 - 20, 2021

Buy if there is a rebound at 1.1670 (-1/8), with take profit at 1.1718 and 1.1745 (EMA 200), stop loss below 1.1635.

Buy above 1.1695 (SMA 21), with take profit at 1.1718 and 1.1745 (EMA 200), stop loss below 1.1649.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Japanese cryptocurrency exchange robbed of $80 million

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 06:24 AM PDT

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Bitcoin sank by $4,000 in the last 6 days and fell to the support level of $43,852. However, we should not forget that in the last three weeks before this, the cryptocurrency grew by $18,000. Thus, the current downward movement is nothing more than a correction. However, if the bears manage to overcome the support level of $43,852, the decline in quotes is likely to continue. Recall that we expect a new decline in the quotes of the bitcoin in the area of $30,000. Also, there have been no special reasons for the growth of the cryptocurrency by $18,000 recently.

Meanwhile, hackers broke into Japan's Liquid cryptocurrency exchange and withdrew $80 million worth of digital assets from it. The administration of the exchange said that the circumstances of the incident are currently being studied, and for now the withdrawal of funds and deposits will be suspended. According to unconfirmed information, more than 100 bitcoin coins, almost 15,000 ether coins, were stolen from the exchange. The management of the exchange stated that at this time, it is tracking the movement of stolen digital assets and is looking for an opportunity to freeze and return the funds. Recall that this is not the first case of cryptocurrency exchange hacking. According to data from Kaspersky Lab, which specializes in the search for viruses and malicious fraudulent sites and programs, there were more than 1,000 sites on the Internet in 2021 aimed at deceiving the owners of digital assets.

It also became known that the United States and China are no longer world leaders in the distribution of cryptocurrencies. If earlier the two largest countries on Earth were directly involved in the popularization of the cryptocurrency segment, in 2021, they were replaced by developing countries, whose population sees bitcoin as a way to escape from high inflation (which affects the currencies of many developing countries). In addition, residents of developing countries are turning to cryptocurrencies to conduct business and make money transfers abroad since this method is much easier and less controlled by governments and central banks than bank transfers and transfers through payment systems. Now the TOP 5 countries on the cryptocurrency distribution index include Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Kenya.

At the same time, bitcoin is on the verge of a new collapse. Recall that the key moment for "digital gold" was a double rebound from the level of $47,500, after which the quotes fell to the level of $43,852 and the upward trend line. Now, overcoming the trend line and this level will open the way for sellers to the level of $40,746. The fundamental background is absolutely not on the side of bitcoin right now, so the fall will be the logical end of the bullish microtrend that has formed over the past month.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin hits a weekly low: will it go further?

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 05:52 AM PDT

Bitcoin continues its downward movement from the local high of $48,200. The market is fully implementing the weakening, which is demonstrated by the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency. The coin hit a weekly low at $44,800 and is trying to hold that milestone. Despite the contradictory indicators of the horizontal charts, bitcoin is still in the framework of an upward trend. At the same time, yesterday, August 18, the 200-day moving average was broken, which became an alarm signal for the bulls, and intensified the activity of the bears.

The main challenge for bitcoin in the current decline is the consolidation and a successful rebound above $45,000. As of 11:00 UTC, the cryptocurrency is quoted at $44,600 and is trying to start moving up. However, the bears will likely try to push the price even lower to the key support level at $44,200. With a bearish breakout, bitcoin could drop to $40,000 and below. At the same time, the market situation indicates a probable rebound of BTC from the current area due to the large concentration of longs and local positive investors. However, the coin made life difficult for itself by forming a resistance level at $45,200. On the one-hour chart, a bearish trend has appeared along this line, and pressure zones are now concentrated at $45,200 and $45,500. This indicates, that in the near future, the main cryptocurrency will not be able to break through the $50,000 mark. Buyers should now focus on the return of BTC's upward movement.

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On the one-hour chart, bitcoin indicators are showing signs of weakening. For example, the RSI is gradually moving below 40. At the same time, the MACD and stochastic indicate a possible bullish momentum and price growth in the near future. The overall picture of the one-hour chart indicates the coin's tenacity on this line. Bitcoin will likely try to break through $45,000 after a short consolidation.

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On the four-hour chart, bitcoin looks even weaker due to the MACD, which has gone beyond the zero mark and indicates a clear downward movement. At the same time, the RSI is trying to stay above the 40 mark, and the stochastic is trying to pull the rope, which ended in a local victory for the bears.

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A clear bearish trend is emerging on the bitcoin daily chart, where all major indicators point to a downward movement. The MACD indicator confirms the breakdown of $44,200, and the stochastic crossed the zero mark, which indicates the inability of the bulls to buy back the current price drop. In general, the horizontal charts indicate a clear breakdown of the $44,200 mark and further movement towards $40,000. With the current market sentiment and the upward dynamics of social and on-chain activity of bitcoin, the probability of a rebound to the growth area is extremely high. However, if the $44,200 mark is broken, the chances of successfully working out the local bearish trend and further movement to the key zone of $37,300 increase significantly. With its bearish breakout, the local upward trend from July 20 is completely canceled, and the likelihood of a shift to the middle of the two-month range of fluctuations increases.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Hot Forecast on August 19

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 05:00 AM PDT

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The sterling remains under pressure after the UK's lower-than-expected core CPI in July. The break below the intermediate support at 1.3800 has accelerated the downward momentum.

An oversold RSI has helped lift the price but this could be a dead-cat bounce with sellers eager to double down at a better fill.

1.3780 is a fresh resistance level and likely to check the pound's advance. 1.3700 is the closest support which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally.

Further down, 1.3600 is a demand zone on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Price Analysis on August 19

Posted: 19 Aug 2021 04:56 AM PDT

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EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.17, trading at the lowest level since November 2020. The dollar is gaining ground after the Fed's meeting minutes signaled that tapering of its bond-buying scheme is high on the agenda. US jobless claims are awaited.

The euro/dollar pair is suffering from oversold conditions according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart. The drop below 30 implies that the bounce is due. Other indicators such as momentum and the Simple Moving Average are pointing lower.

Immediate support awaits at the fresh 2021 trough 1.1665. The next level to watch is the double-bottom of 1.1610 set in late 2020. Further down, 1.15 is a noteworthy psychological barrier.

The broken 1.17 level is the first level of resistance. It is followed by 1.1720, which support EUR/USD last week, and then by 1.1740, which was Wednesday's swing high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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