Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Bitcoin returned to the accumulation zone. Will the level of $ 50,000 be broken?
- Upward impulse of the EUR/USD pair
- BCN/USD - technical analysis of the current situation
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of August 30 - September 3. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of August 30 - September 3. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
| Bitcoin returned to the accumulation zone. Will the level of $ 50,000 be broken? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:00 PM PDT Last week, the flat zone was identified. Bitcoin managed to consolidate below this zone, but it returned to its limits again on Thursday. The next two days will be decisive for our trading plan. Looking for the price within the flat range indicates the need to wait for an exit beyond its limits. Today, two equally probable patterns can be constructed, which will be needed to adhere to this week. Bearish pattern:
This pattern is still more likely, but for the sale, confirmation is required in the form of a downward exit. This will indicate an 80% probability of updating last week's low and will allow us to open a deal from the lower limit of the flat. Bullish pattern:
A close above the designated flat zone today will increase the probability of updating the annual high to 80%. If so, buying will come to the fore. It is noteworthy that transactions outside the flat zone have a 50% probability of working out, so it is important to accurately determine the direction of exit from the zone. The level of $ 50,000 per coin can remain a serious resistance for a long time, so testing this level with a return inside the flat can also be considered as an opportunity to sell. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Upward impulse of the EUR/USD pair Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:12 PM PDT Favorable prices were received to buy the EUR/USD pair last Friday. The target of the upward movement remains the Weekly Control Zone of 1.1840-1.1857. Last week's growth has absorbed the bearish impulse from two weeks ago. This indicates that the upward movement will most likely continue in the first half of this week. The purchases made last Friday can be transferred to breakeven. Thus, it is necessary for a partial or complete consolidation when testing the level of 1.1840.
It is worth noting how this instrument has clearly worked out our trading plan regarding the banking operations zone, which was chosen as the main one on August 26. Trading plan on August 26:
Today's situation:
The banking level of 1.1734 remained a support and the growth continued. This model indicates a large number of orders to sell the Euro. Most likely, the upward movement will remain the main one for the next two days. Holding purchases is the main tactic until September 1, 2021. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BCN/USD - technical analysis of the current situation Posted: 29 Aug 2021 02:23 PM PDT BCN/USD
Despite the fact that the bears managed to update previous week's low, on the daily timeframe they have so far managed to create preconditions for stopping the corrective decline. Support was made by the final levels of the daily Ichimoku cross (617.27 - 594.60). The day's cross (644.20 - 617.27 - 594.60) in the current situation remains the main and closest support zone, defending the interests of the players for an increase. Its breakdown and change of direction will allow the bears to return to the market and consider a decline to the support lines, which are now located at 547.83 - 529.78 (weekly short-term trend + weekly Senkou Span A + daily cloud). To continue the growth in the current situation, it will be important to overcome the resistance of the monthly Fibo Kijun (708.92) and settle above the high of the current correctional decline (713.33). The next upward reference point in this case will be the target for the breakdown of the daily cloud (763.36 - 805.67).
The advantage on lower time intervals belongs to the bullish players. Today they have gone beyond the daily range of the classic Pivot levels, so now the main task is to consolidate the achieved result and hold positions. Key supports for lower timeframes (636.54 weekly long-term trend + 627.81 central pivot level) are strengthened by the levels of the daily cross, as well as the cloud and the Ichimoku cross at H4, so the total support zone is in the region of 644.20 - 617.27 - 594 .60 is so important to maintain the advantage on the growth side. *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend) The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:15 AM PDT GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair has grown by 130 points this week and is starting a new upward trend. We have already said repeatedly that from a global technical point of view, nothing has changed in recent months, as the pair continues to trade in the 600-point range between the levels of 1.36 and 1.42. It is not flat, but it is a side channel. The most remarkable thing is that the pair has fallen into the target area of 1.3600-1.3666, which we have repeatedly talked about, and everything looks as if it is still ready to start a new upward trend. Recall that the pound/dollar also had two rounds of correction against the global upward trend. And we also expect a resumption of the growth of the pound. And fundamental factors also speak in favor of the fall of the dollar. Therefore, the picture is approximately the same as for the euro/dollar pair. At the moment, the quotes have risen to the critical Kijun-sen line, so they will have to overcome this line if they want to continue moving up. Otherwise, the local downward trend will continue. As for Friday's speech by Jerome Powell, it had the same impact on the pound as on the euro. Thus, in general, we continue to believe that most factors point to the resumption of the campaign to the north, but everything will depend on the markets. For any fundamental hypothesis, technical confirmation is required. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 17-23), the GBP/USD pair fell by 120 points. And the number of contracts to buy from a group of "Non-commercial" traders during the same time decreased by only 2 thousand. However, the number of short positions increased by 19 thousand. Therefore, something has happened for the pound that has not yet happened with the European currency. The mood of large traders has officially changed to "bearish" since now they have more open sell contracts than buy contracts. It turns out that in the last reporting week, major players reduced their net positions in both the euro and the pound. Was it all due to the same expectations of "hawkish" rhetoric from Jerome Powell, which was not destined to be voiced? One way or another, but the British currency, according to COT reports, has much more interesting prospects for falling than the euro. However, all other fundamental and technical factors continue to speak in favor of the fall of the US currency and not vice versa. Therefore, we believe that at this time, we should rely on technical factors. For the pound, this is the area of 1.3600-1.3666. A confident overcoming of it will allow us to expect a further drop in the pair's quotes. However, since Jerome Powell did not report anything supporting the US dollar last Friday, it will be difficult for the US currency to count on a new round of strengthening. We also remind you that the "factor of the Fed's cash injections" continues to work not in favor of the dollar, which inflates the money supply and provokes an increase in inflation. In general, even with the readings of the COT reports, the further growth of the dollar is far from obvious. During the current week, no single important report was published in the UK. In the United States, we can only note the GDP report for the second quarter, according to which there was an increase of 6.6% q/q, which is slightly higher than the previous estimate. However, although the pound/dollar pair was trading quite actively for 3 out of 5 days, we cannot conclude that this was due to macroeconomic statistics. Only Friday's fall in the US currency can be associated with the speech of Jerome Powell. And, for example, on Monday, the pound rose strongly, but on this day, only the business activity indices in the US and the UK were published, which turned out to be worse than the previous values. And in general, these are not the most important indicators. Thus, the pound/dollar pair is now trading more according to its own rules, and it pays attention to "macroeconomics" and "foundation." Trading plan for the week of August 30-September 3: 1) The pound/dollar pair is still in a downward trend if we take the short-term plan of the 24-hour timeframe. Since the price continues to be located below the critical line, it is simply impractical to consider purchases now. Therefore, for the possibility of considering longs, you need to wait for a new price consolidation above the Kijun-sen line, after which the first target will be the Senkou Span B – 1.3908 line. 2) The bears again failed to overcome the level of 1.3600 last week, so their prospects also remain rather doubtful. It will be possible to continue to consider short positions below the Kijun-sen line and, especially when the price rebounds from this line, but we still expect the resumption of the upward trend more. As you can see, the pair did not manage to leave below the level of 1.3600 for six months. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:15 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has increased by 100 points during the current week. Thus, the pair may be again trying to start a new upward trend. Recall that we have been expecting a new round of upward movement for at least several weeks. Our expectations are based on an analysis of all global and local factors. And this analysis still speaks in favor of the fall of the US currency. We also recall that there was just a round of correction against the upward trend in the last few months from a global technical point of view. The second round of corrections in the last six months. Thus, once this movement is identified on the 24-hour timeframe as a correction, therefore, the upward trend persists and will be resumed. We also said that the target for the second round of correction might be the level of 1.1700. At the moment, it is near this level that the downward movement has ended. Thus, we still believe that there is a high probability of a resumption of the upward trend. Especially because the Fed continues to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into the American economy, and Jerome Powell still does not name any deadlines for completing the quantitative stimulus program. Moreover, the States are currently facing a full-scale new "wave" of diseases, so the Fed fears a possible slowdown in the pace of economic recovery. In general, the situation is as follows: if the price is fixed above the critical line (so far, this consolidation is not too confident), then almost all factors will speak in favor of a new upward trend. Otherwise, the downward movement (most likely, very weak) may continue for some time. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 17-23), the EUR/USD pair fell by 30 points. Thus, judging by the chart of the European currency, the "bearish" mood among traders remains. However, both indicators in the illustration above indicate that the bullish mood among the major players remains, which is indirectly another factor that speaks in favor of resuming the upward trend for the euro/dollar pair. The "Non-commercial" group of traders, which is the most important, still has more contracts open for buying than selling. This value has been declining recently, but it remains "bullish." During the reporting week, the mood of professional players again became more "bearish." The Non-commercial Group has closed almost 40 thousand buy contracts and only 7.2 thousand sell contracts. Thus, the net position decreased by 33 thousand at once. It indicates that the process of selling off the European currency continues. However, we knew this and judging simply by the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair. We believe that the non-overcoming of the level of 1.1700 preserves the scenario with a new upward trend, no matter how much the net position of non-commercial traders decreases. Because the "technique" in this case eloquently indicates a very likely resumption of the upward movement. But if the level of 1.1700 is overcome, large players may feel that it is no longer just a correction but a new downward trend and continue to increase short positions. Therefore, in some way, the euro/dollar pair is now at a very important point, both price and time. The current trading week was highly boring in terms of macroeconomic statistics and fundamental events. Several more or less interesting reports were published during the week, but what is the use of them if the markets took a wait-and-see position from the very beginning of the week and refused to trade. And they were waiting for Jerome Powell's speech at the symposium in Jackson Hole, which was supposed to take place on Friday. It took place, but the traders' hopes were not destined to come true since the head of the Fed did not tell the markets anything new. We have been writing in our articles all week that the probability of receiving new information from Powell is extremely low, given the circumstances that have developed in recent weeks. However, the markets still seemed to be waiting for Powell to announce the timing of the completion of the QE program, or at least hint when this should be expected. But no. Nothing like this happened, so the US currency fell in price on Friday by 44 points. And under the circumstances, this is not the worst value of volatility. Trading plan for the week of August 30-September 3: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the trend remains downward, but traders have made a second unsuccessful attempt to overcome the level of 1.1700, and at the same time, they will now try to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line. However, as long as the price is below the critical line, the downward trend remains relevant, and short positions should be preferred in trading. 2) The euro/dollar pair returned to the Kijun-sen line this week, but now it will take a confident overcoming to count on the upward movement that we talked about in the article. Therefore, if this happens, we can expect the further movement to the north with a target of 1.1886 (the last local maximum). Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex analysis review. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Comments