Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- How to trade the GBP/USD currency pair on September 6? Simple tips for beginners.
- How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on September 6? Simple tips for beginners
- XRPUSD could test $1.60-$1.70 this week.
- There is no news, but Bitcoin cannot be stopped!
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of September 6-10. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of September 6-10. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
| How to trade the GBP/USD currency pair on September 6? Simple tips for beginners. Posted: 05 Sep 2021 02:23 PM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair was in an upward movement for most of the day on the 30-minute timeframe on Friday, which was provoked by weak statistics from the US. Unlike the euro/dollar pair, the pound/dollar pair reacted more or less adequately to several important macroeconomic reports. Although, by and large, the reaction only followed the NonFarm Payrolls report, which turned out to be three times weaker than the forecast values. Consequently, it could not help but provoke a weakening of the US currency = growth of the pound/dollar pair). As a result, after the NonFarm Payrolls report was released, the dollar quotes fell by 70 points, which is also not very much for this pair. Let us remind novice traders that 60-80 points per day are considered normal volatility for the EUR/USD pair. For the pound/dollar pair - 100-120 points. But in recent months, these values have dropped by at least one and a half times, which greatly complicates the trading process. On Friday, the MACD indicator generated one buy signal (circled in the chart). However, it was formed exactly at the time when the Nonfarm report was published, so it should have been ignored, since it was completely unknown how the pair would behave some time after the report. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
It was also very difficult to move on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. The first half of the day (European trading session) passed in a sideways range 25 points wide. In the second half of the day (at the US trading session), several important reports were published at once, which provoked an upward movement. Obviously, at the time of their publication, new deals should not have been opened. However, it should also be noted that the market reaction was only to the NonFarm Payrolls report, and the reports on unemployment, wages and business activity in the ISM services sector were ignored. This becomes clear when we look at the actual values of these reports or when they were released. For example, the ISM report (the third checkmark in the chart) just didn't get any reaction. And the reports on wages and unemployment turned out to be better than forecasts, therefore, they should have provoked a strengthening of the US dollar (that is, a fall in the pound/dollar pair). As a result, on Friday, novice traders should not have opened trade deals for the pound/dollar pair either. There were no sensible signals, and there were a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which increased the risk of receiving losses during the day due to false signals or due to sharp price reversals. How to trade on Monday: At this time, the pound/dollar pair is in an upward channel on the 30-minute timeframe, so we advise beginners to look closely at buy signals from the MACD indicator. At this time, the indicator is too high, you need to wait until it drops to the zero level. You can also use a price rebound from the lower border of the channel as a buy signal. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3796, 1.3816, 1.3874, 1.3891. We recommend trading with them. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. On Monday, the UK is scheduled to publish the PMI for the construction sector. Perhaps this report will even provoke a 15-20 point market reaction. Nothing interesting is planned for tomorrow in America. What's on the chart: Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now. MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend plots (channels, trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on September 6? Simple tips for beginners Posted: 05 Sep 2021 02:23 PM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD pair as a whole continued its upward movement on Friday. In total, the pair crossed 44 points from the low to the high of the day. And this was on the day when both the European Union and the United States had a lot of important macroeconomic reports. However, let's talk about them below. So far, it should be noted that the volatility of the euro/dollar pair remains extremely low. Unfortunately, there is nothing you can do about it. It is quite difficult to trade with such volatility. For example, two trading signals were generated on the 30-minute timeframe on Friday. At first, the MACD indicator turned up, but this reversal coincided with the release of a strong report in the US. And then the price bounced off the 1.1908 level. The second signal could theoretically be worked out, but it was also formed approximately at the time when the Nonfarm report was released, and it was possible to earn 10 points maximum on it. At the same time, the upward trend persists and continues to be supported by the upward channel. If the pair settles below it, it will mean a change in the trend. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
You can clearly see on the 5-minute timeframe that not only did the pair stand in one place for most of the day, but also traded mostly sideways. Even in spite of at least four important reports that could and should have influenced the pair's movement. It all started with the release of the business activity report in the EU. And literally through the retail sales report in the European Union. It doesn't even make sense to consider the actual values of these reports and compare them with the predicted ones, since there was no reaction (the first two ticks in the chart). Next, the most important macroeconomic report for the past few weeks was published - NonFarm Payrolls in the United States (third tick), on which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will depend in the coming months. And the market reaction to the report with the value that was three times worse than the forecast was 38 points. Moreover, despite the blatant weakness of the report, the quotes rushed back down within 5 minutes after taking off. As a result, the day ended at the same level as it began. The ISM manufacturing index no longer worried anyone at all (fourth tick). Formally, two signals were formed during the day, which could theoretically be worked out. But the first signal stretched out in time for several hours. That is, there was no question of any accuracy and clarity. The second signal was formed immediately after the release of important statistics in the United States and should not have been worked out. Moreover, it was also completely fuzzy. As a result, novice traders should not have entered the market on Friday. How to trade on Monday: The EUR/USD pair continues to be in an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but at the same time a very weak trend. We still do not recommend tracking buy signals from the MACD indicator and waiting for a more convincing trend line or channel and the start of a stronger movement. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1831, 1.1851, 1.1880, 1.1908. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. No major publications or other events are scheduled for Monday, neither in the United States nor in the European Union. However, it doesn't matter for the euro/dollar pair at all now, since the volatility remains very low anyway. What's on the charts: Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now. MACD indicator (14,22,3) - a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend plots (channels, trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| XRPUSD could test $1.60-$1.70 this week. Posted: 05 Sep 2021 08:32 AM PDT XRPUSD is in a bullish trend. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Price so far has respected key support trend lines and has formed a bullish cup pattern that will be activated if price breaks above $1.35.
Black line - support trend line Red line -cup pattern Blue line -resistance XRPUSD if it breaks above the blue resistance line, we should then expect an advance equal to the height of the cup pattern. This could bring price towards $1.60-$1.70 area. The form of the rise from $0.50 looks impulsive and not corrective as it did during the decline from $1.97. This increases the chances that this new upward move will eventually break above $2 and most probably test its all time highs. XRPUSD has support at $1.10. Any pull back towards that level will be considered a buying opportunity. However if price breaks below the black trend line we should expect a deeper pull back towards $0.80 at least. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| There is no news, but Bitcoin cannot be stopped! Posted: 05 Sep 2021 03:19 AM PDT
Bitcoin, which broke the ascending trend line a few days ago, calmly resumed the upward trend that began about a month and a half ago without any apparent fundamental reasons. Recall that we believe that the main reason for the last round of cryptocurrency growth is the rush of many investors to buy bitcoin in full until the new legislation is adopted in the States, according to which most of the transactions will "pass" through the Tax Administration. Thus, from this point of view, the growth is quite logical, although it was really difficult to predict it. However, the problem now is something else. It is unclear how much longer the growth of the main cryptocurrency will continue? The quotes of the "bitcoin" managed to stay above the level of $ 46,600. However, bitcoin can't grow back to its absolute highs in just a couple of months, without even having good fundamental reasons for this. One way or another, but it is stupid to deny now that the upward trend persists. At the moment, we can only conclude that it has weakened a little, but it has not ended. In the illustration below, we have plotted a new ascending channel and if the price is fixed below it, then we can again count on a powerful drop in the cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, more experts are inclined to believe that by the end of the year, bitcoin can reach the level of $ 73-75 thousand per coin. However, we would like to remind you that when bitcoin was trading at $ 30-33 thousand per coin, many experts and analysts also said that now the exchange rate is at least $ 24,000. Instead, almost out of the blue, bitcoin rose to $ 50,000. Thus, we remind you that any expectations, assumptions, and hypotheses must be confirmed by specific technical signals. At this time, we continue to expect a fall in BTC, but we need to wait for a new sell signal in the form of consolidation below the ascending channel. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that any cryptocurrencies and stablecoins cannot be recognized as currencies and are speculative assets. According to the ECB president, all stablecoins are not currency equivalents, they are just tied to them. However, many stablecoins are not fully backed by real fiat money. For example, it recently became known that the issuer of Tether indicated in a report that the share of funds and bank deposits that can be withdrawn in two or fewer days is only 10%. Thus, formally, it is very difficult to call any stablecoins stable and secured.
In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be in an upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. Bitcoin has not managed to gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud, but there is already a new benchmark – an ascending channel. The departure of the "bitcoin" quotes below will indicate the possible beginning of a new downward trend, which we have been expecting for a long time. At the same time, overcoming the level of $ 51,350 can provoke an even greater growth of bitcoin, up to its annual highs. We recommend selling cryptocurrencies after fixing below $ 46,600. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Sep 2021 02:34 AM PDT GBP/USD 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair has grown by 100 points this week and is also trying to start a new upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. As in the case of the euro/dollar pair, the quotes worked out the target zone within the last round of the downward correction in the global plan – 1.3600-1.3666. Thus, at this time, nothing prevents the pair from starting a new upward trend. As in the case of the euro, most of the fundamental and technical factors speak in favor of further strengthening of the pound. Even despite all the problems of the economic, political, and geopolitical nature of the UK. Recall that the money supply in the United States continues to increase and so far the Fed has not even announced a reduction in the volume of monthly injections into the American economy. Injections of at least $ 120 billion a month will continue for an unknown amount of time. Thus, we believe that the pound can safely continue its growth, even if the volatility has decreased in recent months. The same picture as for the euro. In the illustration above, all the movements look very solid. But if you zoom out to the real one, so that at least part of the previous upward movement is placed on the illustration, it immediately becomes clear that the current volatility is quite low. The entire upward trend in the pound over the past year and a half has taken 2,800 points. The downward correction against the entire trend in the last 6 months is 670 points. If the correction for the euro was a third of the movement, then for the pound – even less than 23.6% for Fibonacci. We believe that in the long term, the bears are extremely weak. Or the Fed is pouring an extremely large amount of money into its economy. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 24-30), the GBP/USD pair gained 35 points. The most important group of "Non-commercial" traders continues to reduce their net position, and their mood is becoming more "bearish". These changes are visible on the indicators in the illustration above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (the net position of the "Non-commercial" group) has already gone below the zero levels. The mood of the major players changed to "bearish" at this moment. It is also clear that in the last 6 months, the red and green lines (net positions of the "Commercial" and "Non-commercial" groups) have only moved towards each other, which means the end of the current trend (in our case, the upward one). However, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend is complete because the correction against this trend is too weak. It is the weakness of the correction over the past 6 months that does not allow us to conclude that this is the beginning of a new trend and not just a correction. Thus, the major players continue to sell the pound, and the currency itself could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666 after three attempts. Therefore, we believe that the factor of injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy by the Fed remains in the first place in terms of importance, which ensures the depreciation of the dollar over a long distance and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. During the reporting week, non-profit traders closed 2,500 contracts for purchase and almost 5,000 contracts for sale. Thus, the net position has even increased slightly, but this does not change the essence of the matter. So far, the major players are "bearish", but this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600. During the current week, no single important report was published in the UK. Therefore, the macroeconomic background for the pair was the same as for the euro/dollar. It came down to American macroeconomic statistics, which were quite a lot this week, but at the same time, it did not provoke any strong reaction of the markets. Even on Friday, when the Nonfarm Payrolls report was published in the States, the volatility of the pound was only 70 points. And apart from the Nonfarm report, traders seem to have paid no attention to anything at all. Two ISM reports this week, the ADP report, and the unemployment report was easily and simply ignored. And these are just the most important reports that were ignored. Thus, for the time being, we are focusing on the technique that speaks in favor of continuing the growth of the pair, which is fueled by the local "foundation" (low probability of curtailing the QE program) in the near future. Trading plan for the week of September 6-10: 1) The pound/dollar pair was fixed above the critical line last week, so the trend is currently changing to an upward one. Of course, it is still too early to say this for sure, since the Bollinger bands are still directed downwards, and the price has not yet overcome the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, it will be possible to speak more confidently about a new hike to the north after confidently overcoming the level of 1.3910. In this case, you can buy a pair with a target of 1.4126. 2) The bears let the initiative out of their hands last week and now the pair can continue its growth. From our point of view, sales will not be relevant in the near future, since the price failed to overcome the level of 1.3600 several times. Nevertheless, this is the foreign exchange market and if the pair manages to return below the critical line, then sales can be considered again with the first target of 1.3600. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Sep 2021 01:56 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has increased by 80 points during the current week. Thus, the upward movement has been continuing for two weeks in a row. And if it were not so weak, it would be possible to say with confidence that a new upward trend has begun. However, the fact is that the pair has been growing for 11 days. However, at the same time, it managed to grow by only 200 points. Once again, we remind traders that at the moment, the movements look convincing and powerful in the illustration of the 24-hour timeframe. However, this is not the case. If you set the scale of the chart so that the entire one-and-a-half-year upward trend falls on it, it becomes clear that all the movements over the past 6 months are nothing more than weak corrections against this trend. Thus, at this time, we can only draw the same conclusion as before. The chances of a new fall in the US currency with a minimum target of 1.2240 are very high. It is supported by a whole set of fundamental and technical factors. However, with such volatility, the pair can even reach the level of 1.2240 for six months. We believe that at this time the global upward trend should resume, within which the quotes should go much higher than the level of 1.2240. And this task looks even more impossible, given the current volatility. It is on volatility that traders should now focus their attention on. A striking example: on Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report was published in the United States, which at all times was considered one of the most significant; the actual value was three times lower than the forecast and at the same time the volatility of the day was 45 points. 45 points are considered a very weak value even when the macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds are empty. And with such an important report, and even with such a discrepancy with the forecast, it's just a meager amount. And we have not yet taken into account all the other statistics, which were plentiful on Friday. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 24-30), the EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points. However, although the European currency has been growing for two weeks, COT reports continue to signal a reduction in the net position of non-commercial traders, which can only indicate a weakening of the "bullish" mood. The net position of the "Non-commercial" group has already fallen to almost zero, which means that there is almost complete equality in the number of open contracts for buying and selling by large players. If we make the most banal conclusion, then the major players are now looking towards the sale of the European currency. But, as we have repeatedly said, during such a serious weakening of the "bullish" mood, the euro/dollar pair fell by only 600 points. Recall that the entire upward trend is estimated at 1,700 points. Thus, so far, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: the major players may be set up for the sale of the euro, but the monetary injections from the Fed, which have not yet stopped, continue to level the imbalance in supply and demand for the European currency. Simply put, the Fed continues to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, banally increasing the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and provoking an increase in inflation. Therefore, professional players can sell the euro, but the dollar's money supply is growing at about the same rate (or even more), which leads to a very modest fall in the euro currency against the dollar, which can end at any time. During the reporting week, the Non-commercial group opened 11 thousand new contacts for sale, and the total number of buy and sell contracts is now in the ratio of 192.5 thousand-180.5 thousand. The current trading week was extremely busy in macroeconomic terms. However, since the volatility remained minimal, there were no significant changes in the technical picture, thanks to all these reports and publications. By and large, we can call important the report on European inflation, which unexpectedly jumped from 2.2% to 3.0% y/y in August, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls, which turned out to be three times lower than the forecast value and amounted to only 235 thousand. However, the markets did not react to either report. Of particular importance is only the Nonfarm report at all, since its low value significantly reduces the probability of announcing the beginning of the curtailment of the Fed's quantitative stimulus program at the meeting in September. Trading plan for the week of September 6-10: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the trend changes to an upward one. The price has overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, so now it will tend to the upper border of the Ichimoku cloud. Unfortunately, the bulls failed to overcome the level of 1.1910, which is the previous local maximum, on the first attempt. However, we believe that this is only a temporary phenomenon. The nearest target for the next week will be the level of 1.2000. We advise you to consider buying a pair 2) The euro/dollar pair has consolidated above the critical line, so the further downward movement is still in doubt. However, we have repeatedly said that we expect the completion of the downward correction movement around the level of 1.1700. In any case, as long as the price is above the Kijun-sen line, it is not worth returning to sales. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex analysis review. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Comments