Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for EUR/USD on September 28, 2021
- Forecast for GBP/USD on September 28, 2021
- Forecast for AUD/USD on September 28, 2021
- Forecast for USD/JPY on September 28, 2021
- EUR/USD: dollar caught in the crossfire, and the euro wonders if Angela Merkel will wish it a Merry Christmas
- How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 28? Simple tips for beginners
- China's repression may open up opportunities: Senator Patrick Toomey Jr. is confident that the US can receive many privileges
- XRPUSD vulnerable to more downside.
- AUDUSD continue to have hopes.
- Reversal signals in PG stock price.
- TSLA stock price breaks resistance
- USD/JPY 111.65 level seen as target
- Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 28. Fed: inflation is good, we just have to wait for Nonfarm Payrolls report
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 27. Speeches by Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell
- September 27, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- September 27, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.
- September 27, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.
- Bitcoin: ambiguity from every angle. Important week ahead, what to watch out for?
- Trading Signal for RIPPLE, XRP for September 27 - 28, 2021: Key level $ 0,9500 (SMA 21)
- Trading Signal for NASDAQ 100, #NDX, for September 27 - 28, 2021: Buy above 15,200 (SMA 21)
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 27 - 28, 2021: Buy if pair breaks 1.1718 (bearish channel)
- GBP/USD: Stagflation scares the pound
- Bitcoin could drop to $30k by the end of the year; how likely is it?
- Cardano announces stablecoin issuing and begins DeFi sector developing
- Technical analysis for Bitcoin
| Forecast for EUR/USD on September 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Sep 2021 08:48 PM PDT EUR/USD Things are moving towards the fact that the euro will soon completely lose the opportunity for growth. The price still has one last opportunity - to stay above the low on the 23rd of 1.1683 and try to return to 1.1750. If the 1.1653 level does not support the price, then a fall to 1.1640 will take place, and the breakthrough of 1.1640 opens the target at 1.1550. Marlin Oscillator moves down and plays on the side of the bears on the daily.
A double weak convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is forming on the four-hour timescale. This is weak and also the only opportunity for the euro to return above the MACD line (1.1725) and develop growth. The situation will be resolved in a few hours.
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| Forecast for GBP/USD on September 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Sep 2021 08:48 PM PDT GBP/USD The current situation for the British pound is most understandable today in comparison with other world currencies. The pound closed Monday with growth, this morning the growth continues, indicators predict its further upward direction.
It remains for the price to rise above the MACD line on the daily chart (1.3717) in order to brace for growth to the embedded line of the price channel at 1.3888.
Marlin is moving sideways on the four-hour chart, but in an upward trend. The resistance of the MACD line is at 1.3727, slightly higher than it is on the daily scale, so it is advisable to wait for the price to reach exactly H4, above 1.3727. This growing scenario has a non-hidden stone - an emerging triangle on H4. In case of its completion and the price going down, a downward momentum may develop to the lower border of the price channel in the area of 1.3643 (daily). Moreover, this border can be overcome. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for AUD/USD on September 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Sep 2021 08:43 PM PDT AUD/USD The Australian dollar gained 0.38% on Monday against the overall strengthening of the US dollar by 0.14%. The aussie was helped by the rising commodity prices. But the uncorrelation cannot continue for a long time, investors are more and more interested in the course of "trading" in the American Congress on the issue of raising the ceiling of the state debt. In the meantime, the United States is living on temporary funding until December 3. Prior to this date, a budget law should be passed with the inclusion of new expenditures under the Biden plan, which can partially smooth out the problem.
On the daily chart, the price forms a consolidation between the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator lies sideways in the zone of negative values, which reduces the likelihood of price growth to the level of parity with the bears.
On the four-hour chart, the price failed to overcome the resistance of the MACD line on the second attempt, although the Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. Exit above the MACD line with consolidation, above 0.7282, can inspire optimism in the market and direct the quote to the target range of 0.7340/90. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for USD/JPY on September 28, 2021 Posted: 27 Sep 2021 08:36 PM PDT USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair's sharp growth in recent days in uncorrelation with other world currencies suggests that Japanese investors are selling off US government bonds, because the yen is now directly dependent on them: the yield on 10-year US government bonds has increased since September 23 from 1.30% to 1.48%. On 2-year securities, the yield on the 22nd soared from 0.218% to 0.307%. Probably, this is the reaction of investors to the problems with the US national debt. Hence the uncertainty - will the USD/JPY pair overcome the target level of 111.39, and will it reach it at all?
In case of success, that is, in case of overcoming the immediate resistance, the 112.22 target is open - the high of February 2020. If the price does not overcome the 111.39 level, which is already hinted at by the unfolding Marlin Oscillator, then it may return to the starting position of growth at 109.12.
Marlin indicates a gradual cooling of the market on the four-hour chart. Perhaps this is preparation for a downward reversal of the price, and possibly a small correction before further growth. The question will be resolved when the price crosses either above the resistance of 111.39, or below the support of 110.65 - below the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2021 02:22 PM PDT
The EUR/USD pair tried to start the new week with growth, but was forced to go on the defensive. Market participants drew attention to the parliamentary elections held in Germany on Sunday. According to preliminary results, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) won 25.7% of the vote, ahead of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc with 24.1%. The Greens received 14.8%, and the Liberal Free Democrats – 11.5%. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is on his way to lead Europe's largest economy, but for this he will have to cooperate with the FDP and the Greens, who disagree on several important issues. If Scholz manages to form a coalition, he will become the fourth post-war chancellor from the SPD after Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder. Meanwhile, Armin Laschet is still clinging to the possibility of becoming chancellor, even though he led the Conservatives to their worst election result in modern history. The Greens and the Free Democrats, in turn, made it clear that they would work with any of the larger parties. This suggests that negotiations on the formation of a coalition are likely to be difficult and will take a lot of time. Therefore, experts do not exclude that Angela Merkel may wish Germany a Merry Christmas or a Happy New Year. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair initially rose to 1.1725, then defied the monthly lows, sinking to 1.1690, but eventually managed to recover and hovered in a narrow trading lane, changing within 10 points. The euro may grow slightly over time if the center-left Social Democrats of Germany form a so-called "traffic light" coalition with the greens and liberal Free Democrats after an implicit victory in Sunday's federal elections, according to MUFG Bank. "The traffic light coalition may eventually turn out to be slightly more favorable for the euro, supporting a slower pace of fiscal consolidation, which will help relieve some pressure on the ECB to maintain an ultra-soft policy," the bank's strategists said. "Such a coalition would also potentially be more open to further modest steps to integrate the EU's fiscal policy, although more radical changes are unlikely," they added. Meanwhile, the greenback visited the area of 93.40-93.50 again, after which it slightly reduced its initial increase. Nevertheless, the US currency still looks strong, which limits the growth of the EUR/USD pair. "The dollar is likely to remain in the crossfire: the Fed's positions have become more hawkish, and concerns about a potential default of Evergrande have weakened," Commonwealth Bank of Australia experts noted. Large-scale injections of liquidity from Beijing seem to have convinced investors that the Evergrande crisis will be local, not systemic. The fact that the Chinese authorities are trying to prevent the formation of a Chinese Lehman, which would lead to a domino effect in the markets, reduces the demand for a safe dollar. At the same time, the greenback continues to receive support from the growing yield of long-term US government bonds, which has returned to the levels of four months ago. On Monday, the indicator for 10-year treasuries rose above 1.5% for the first time since the end of June. The growth of US bond yields was largely facilitated by expectations about the tightening of monetary policy in the United States. Do recall that last Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced that, most likely, it will begin to reduce its monthly purchases of bonds in November, and signaled that an increase in interest rates may follow earlier than expected. "The only factors that keep the US central bank from tightening its policy are the budget debate in Washington and the risks of an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in winter. If these factors disappear, the Fed could begin to cut stimulus. More "tighter" monetary policy of the central bank will have a positive effect on the dollar," analysts at Deutsche Bank believe. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is hovering around the 1.1700 level. Obviously, bulls need to rise above 1.1755, but this looks unlikely at the current stage. Further resistance is noted at 1.1790 and 1.1830. In the event of a breakdown below 1.1680, bears could target this year's lows around 1.1660 and then the November 2020 lows of 1.1600. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 28? Simple tips for beginners Posted: 27 Sep 2021 02:22 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading very weakly on Monday. Volatility of the day was only 42 points. If in the first half of the day the pair still somehow moved, then it became tightly stuck in one place in the afternoon. Thus, novice traders did not see active movements again. Basically, on the 30-minute timeframe, the nature of the pair's movement is perfectly visible and understandable at this time. For at least six consecutive days, all trades have been near the level of 1.1704, with which the pair has serious problems. Today the quotes seem to have gone below this level, but this withdrawal is clearly not going to be a confident breakthrough. And the price ends the day and does so "at" the level of 1.1704. Moreover, there is no trend right now. The fact that quotes are trading along the level of 1.1704 suggests that our movement is sideways, or flat, in other words. Also, during the first day of the week, there was not a single important macroeconomic report, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech did not give the markets any new information. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe was very eloquent. As we said above, there was still a movement in the first half of the day, and then it became a total flat in the afternoon. Thus, it was still possible to trade in the first half of the day. Let's analyze all the trading signals and see which of them should be filtered and which should be worked out. The first buy signal in the form of a rebound from the level of 1.1704 immediately turned out to be false. The price was unable to continue its upward movement and settled below the level of 1.1704. Therefore, the first long position turned out to be unprofitable (-11 points). However, the next signal turned out to be better, as the price managed to go down to the nearest level of 1.1685 and, given the current volatility (low), this movement could well be considered and rejected by a short position. The profit, however, was only 10 points. Since there was a very accurate rebound from the level of 1.1685, this should be regarded as a signal to buy and reopen long positions. Since a rebound followed from the level of 1.1704, a long position should have been closed near this level in a profit of about 10 points and immediately open short positions. However, in the future the price failed to settle above the level of 1.1704 or to reach the level of 1.1685 again. Therefore, in the end, the last deal could have been closed with zero profit, since the flat was obvious in the US trading session. How to trade on Tuesday: The EUR/USD pair tried to form an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but in fact it has been moving sideways for more than a week. Therefore, at this time, we do not recommend considering signals from the MACD indicator. First, the pair needs to complete the flat and form a trend line or channel. The key levels on the 5-minute timeframe for September 28 are 1.1666, 1.1685, 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is located, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. Among important events on Tuesday, we draw your attention to the speeches of ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. It may well be that they will not provide any important information (like Lagarde today) and no market reaction will follow. But it may also be the other way around. Therefore, increased caution during their speeches. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2021 02:22 PM PDT
China went all-in and completely tightened the rules regarding the crypto market, recognizing cryptocurrencies as illegal. What can this mean for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market? The latest calls from China regarding the fight against bitcoins cause massive fears among investors, they begin to panic and do not know how much bitcoin can fall if it goes deeper into a correction. Bitcoin fell on Friday, after the People's Bank of China and other regulatory authorities imposed a ban on the use of cryptocurrencies, saying that they are all illegal and should be completely banned. Bitcoin reacted very sharply to such calls and lost in price and pulled the entire altcoin cryptocurrency market with it. Digital gold fell to $40,500, and the reason for this was the statement from China about the ban on cryptocurrency transactions and their recognition as illegal. However, US Senator Patrick Joseph Toomey Jr. is sure that not everything is so bad and ambiguous for bitcoin, the United States of America and the entire cryptocurrency market. Repression can open up opportunities. Senator Toomey is sure that the United States of America can get a lot of privileges and benefits from the next artificially created repressions from the Chinese government, in general - this is a huge prospect for the United States and the whole world. The US does not share such strict regulatory measures and I am sure that the US, unlike China, will never introduce such strict draconian rules in relation to bitcoin and the entire altcoin market, since the US economic system has a structural advantage over China. Senator Toomey was also supported by the odious bitcoin whale Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, and said that the US could really get a lot of benefits from China's repression. Senator Toomey also believes that economic freedom leads to the well-being of citizens. The United States will never be like the total control, centralization of power, elimination of confidentiality inherent in the political regime of the People's Republic of China. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| XRPUSD vulnerable to more downside. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 02:14 PM PDT XRPUSD continues to trade below the $1 price level. The last couple of sessions no progress was made, price is mostly moving sideways. However I believe the most probable outcome would be for price to remain under pressure.
XRPUSD is making lower lows and lower highs. So far price has retraced 61.8% of the upward movement from $0.51. The RSI has not provided us with a bearish divergence yet. Bears remain in full control of the trend. My next downside target for XRPUSD is between $0.75 to $0.70. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| AUDUSD continue to have hopes. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 02:04 PM PDT AUDUSD is trading around 0.7290. Price is showing reversal signals as price has made an important low at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward movement from 0.71 to 0.7475.
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| Reversal signals in PG stock price. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 01:57 PM PDT PG stock price closed today just above $141. Price has recently made three higher highs in price with the latest high just above $147. The RSI however did not validate bullish trend. The RSI has provided a bearish divergence signal, implying that a pull back is close. I believe the counter trend move has already started.
Red horizontal line - support With such a bearish divergence, I expect PG stock price to continue lower towards the red horizontal support at $138.90. I expect at least a back test of the previous highs at $139. Resistance remains the same at $146. The lower high in the RSI suggests weakening up trend. The RSI is far from oversold, I expect price to fall furher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| TSLA stock price breaks resistance Posted: 27 Sep 2021 01:51 PM PDT TSLA stock price has broken above the $760-$770 horizontal and Fibonacci resistance. So far price has been slowly moving higher respecting the key support trend line by making higher lows. Now that price has broken above the resistance we have a new bullish signal.
Blue line - support trend line Green lines- Fibonacci retracements TSLA stock price has broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price got rejected twice in the past at this Fibonacci level. Now price continues making higher highs and higher lows and has finally broken above this key resistance. Support is at recent low of $718. Bulls do not want to see price pull back and close below the red rectangle and they definitely do not want for price to break below the blue support trend line now at $715. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD/JPY 111.65 level seen as target Posted: 27 Sep 2021 12:35 PM PDT USD/JPY registered a strong upwards movement in the previous week. It has increased as much as 111.06 today as the DXY and the Nikkie have stayed higher. In the short term, the pair could slip lower trying to test and retest the immediate support levels before jumping higher. Surprisingly or not, USD/JPY stays higher despite the US data have come in mixed today. The Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.8% compared to 0.7% expected and versus 0.5% in the previous reporting period. Tomorrow, the BOJ Core CPI is expected to register 0.2% growth. Also, the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is likely to bring more action. On the other hand, the US CB Consumer Confidence is expected to increase from 113.8 to 115.2 points which could be good for the USD. USD/CHF strongly bullish
The USD/JPY pair has managed to stay above 110.82. It has retested this level and now it tries to resume its growth. The next upside obstacle, or the target, is seen at the 111.31 level while the level of 111.65 represents a major resistance, the target. Temporary retreats could help us to catch new upwards movements. In the short term, a temporary decline is expected after the amazing rally. A temporary consolidation here above 110.80 may offer us new buying signals. USD/JPY forecastA breakout through 110.80 signaled an upside continuation. Still, it's risky to buy it here as the price could come back down to test and retest the immediate support levels. A minor accumulation here may attract more buyers. Technically, the current growth is natural after making the Double Bottom and after failing to make new lower lows. A valid breakout through 111.65 could announce a broader upwards movement. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2021 10:50 AM PDT
The wave counting for the GBP/USD currency pair still looks convincing, but it may soon require adjustments and additions. The exit of quotes from the reached lows gives hope for the completion of the construction of the internal corrective wave b as part of the future c. The current wave pattern is still not broken, so I advise you to stick to its current version. Moreover, the quotes could not fall below the minimum of the previous wave b. And this leaves the hope that from the current positions, the instrument will begin a new increase within the third wave in the composition of c with targets located around the 40th figure and above. A successful attempt to break through the low of two waves of b will lead to the need to make changes to the current wave pattern. However, let me remind you (this can be seen in the picture below) that the GBP/USD also continues to move with the help of corrective wave structures. In general, the instrument has been moving mainly horizontally in the last six months. The exchange rate of the Pound/Dollar instrument increased by 40-50 basis points on Monday. Thus, the markets are buying the British pound again, which allows it to continue moving away from the lows reached last week. However, everything may change this week. Jerome Powell will give a speech twice, and the markets are clearly showing an increased interest in him now. Last week, the Fed hinted that it may begin to taper QE in November. According to the Fed members, inflation has already reached the necessary values, which in the medium term will provide the target of 2%. But regarding the recovery of the labor market, not everything is so clear. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report turned out to be quite weak, and many analysts believe that its weakness was the reason that the tapering of QE was not announced in September. Based on this, I conclude that the Fed will wait for the next Nonfarm Payrolls report and if it is strong, then on November 3, the start of unloading the Fed's balance sheet will be announced. The labor market report will be released on October 8, so the Fed will have almost a whole month to make a final decision and analyze all the available data. And will the markets be waiting for Jerome Powell this week for his personal opinion on whether one Nonfarm Payrolls report can really decide the fate of the QE program in November? If the corresponding confirmations are received, this may support the dollar, and the Euro/Dollar instrument may rush down. Let me remind you that we do not need such a scenario. Therefore, I still expect that Powell will not make any new "hawkish" statements. The wave pattern may change in the coming days, but it remains the same for now. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, but the wave counting may undergo changes. Thus, I advise buying the instrument based on an unsuccessful attempt to break the low of the previous wave b and hope to build a third wave as part of the future c, whose targets are located above the 40th figure. A protective order can be placed under the low of two waves b.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new upward section of the trend can get an extended form, its first wave exceeded the peaks of waves b and d, and wave c (assumed) turns out to be very extended. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes remain quite high. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2021 10:32 AM PDT
The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same and so far does without making adjustments. The assumed wave b has taken a longer form due to the decline over the past two weeks, and this is very bad for the current counting, since wave b has already turned out to be too deep compared to wave a. Therefore, the corrective wave b can go below the low wave a, and in this case, the entire downward trend section can resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the entire wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the instrument recently makes us treat it more carefully. If the quotes successfully break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level, then the entire wave picture will have to be revised. At the same time, I draw the readers' attention to another picture (below), where the nature of wave structures over the past six months is clearly visible. The pair moves only through corrective structures, so this time everything can be exactly like this. There was no news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Monday. Several speeches from central bank presidents are scheduled within the week. However, Lagarde's speech on Monday showed that the markets already have all the necessary information without new speeches. The amplitude of the instrument's movement on Monday was only 20 basis points, which is not much. Although the European currency declined again. However, this decrease did not lead to a change in the assumed wave b or the entire wave count. Thus, the markets need to continue to make every effort to restrain a further decline in quotes, which will inevitably lead to the need to make clarifications to the current wave count. I recommend paying attention to the speech of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell at the economic forum organized by the ECB on Tuesday. Perhaps there will be information that is still unknown to the markets. Janet Yellen will also give a speech on Tuesday, but there will be practically no economic reports during the day. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level. I do not advise buying without confirmation, since the downward wave can take an even more complex form, and then the entire wave counting will require adjustments.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section. A further decline in the quotes of the instrument may mean that the entire wave counting of the last months is transformed into a more complex downward section of the trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 27, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 09:41 AM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 allowed the current short-term downtrend to be established. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1770 and 1.1700. So, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. The bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed. Bullish signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel. A bullish reversal pattern similar to double-bottom seems to be in progress. That's why, Bullish persistence above 1.1830 (pattern neckline) is still needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 27, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 09:39 AM PDT
Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where a sideway consolidation range was established. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices for a short period of time before significant upside movement was presented into market. Intraday traders were advised to wait for candlestick closure above 1.1780 - 1.1840 for another ascending swing to be initiated. However, immediate downside selling pressure brought the pair down towards 1.1700. Currently, the price zone around 1.1700 remains a prominent demand-zone to be watched for BUYING pressure and a possible BUY Entry. Initial targets are expected to be projected towards 1.1750, 1.1840 and 1.1910. S/L should be placed below 1.1680. On the other hand, any downside decline below 1.1700 will enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1670 and 1.1610. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 27, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels. Posted: 27 Sep 2021 09:37 AM PDT
The GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. That's why, the pair remained trapped between within the depicted key-zone until temporary downside breakout occurred recently. Breakout below 1.3800 enabled temporary bearish decline towards 1.3600 while the price level of 1.3520 was expected to be reached if sufficient bearish pressure was maintained. Unfortunately, this seemed to be a bearish trap. Immediate bullish rejection brought the pair back above 1.3800. The recent bullish rejection witnessed around 1.3600 as well as the temporary bullish breakout above 1.3880 indicated a high probability that this bullish movement may pursue towards 1.4025 then 1.4100. However, as the pair failed to ascend beyond the price level of 1.3880 expressing bearish rejection, a quick bearish movement may pursue towards 1.3670 and 1.3500 if sufficient bearish momentum is maintained. Hence, the GBPUSD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.3880 and 1.3670 until breakout occurs in either directions. That's when a continuation pattern may be used as a valid signal for a profitable trade. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin: ambiguity from every angle. Important week ahead, what to watch out for? Posted: 27 Sep 2021 09:18 AM PDT Bitcoin has recovered slightly from last week's fall. And interestingly, the descending flag, which was marked at the beginning of the month, has been clearly worked out. Now we see two bearish flags on the daily chart, and these figures, as you know, often go in pairs. Thus, the bearish signal can be considered completed, while the support zone of 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 has resisted. Now the question that probably interests everyone is: where next? From a technical point of view, we can now see the drawing of the second flag canvas - consolidation in the range between the support area 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 and the resistance at 44,807.24 (red dotted line). Further, the direction will depend on which of the boundaries of the aforementioned sideways trend is broken through by BTC/USD. If the price goes up, the price may return to $48,000 per coin, which will give investors hope for further growth. But the breakdown of the support area at 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 and consolidation below it will be a clear bearish signal. And then the milestones on the road to $30,000 per coin would be $36,000 and $34,000 per coin. Now let's look at the fundamental background. Last week, negative news rained down on Bitcoin: first, a flight from risk amid the crisis of the Chinese developer Evergrande (this threat has not yet passed), then the unflattering comments of SEC Chair Gary Gensler. On Friday, pressure intensified amid another announcement by China about a new wave of repression against cryptocurrency. This week promises to be fun too. The industry's attention will be focused on voting on the infrastructure bill. It was approved in the Senate, but today (if not postponed), a final vote is due. It is important for the crypto market because the version of the document adopted in the Senate contains a controversial description of a" broker", which can have far-reaching consequences for the US cryptocurrency business. Efforts are still being made to change its language, and leaders include figures such as Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis and defender Caitlin Long. In the current text, a broker is described as "any person who is responsible for the regular provision of any digital asset transfer service on behalf of another person." And so far it is completely unclear who will eventually be obliged to pay the tax. As for the likelihood of bitcoin falling even lower, the statement that 40,000 for bitcoin is a new 10,000 has not yet lost its relevance. Whether cryptocurrencies will be able to defend this support, we will probably see in the near future. Another interesting announcement came today from Anthony Scaramucci, manager of one of the leading hedge funds Skybridge Capital. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he stated that most institutional investors remain wary of investing in the cryptocurrency market and blockchain technology. This statement is in stark contrast to the general perception that large participants have entered the cryptocurrency market and are supposed to keep the market from plummeting. Scaramucci claims that there are no institutions on the market, and if there are, then there are no more than 10% of them. But he does not deny that this class of investors will soon actively enter the industry. Scaramucci said that institutional giants or Wall Street banks will start buying crypto startups soon and hope that decentralized finance (Defi) will go mainstream. Scaramucci himself, on behalf of Skybridge Capital, has applied for a Bitcoin ETF with the US SEC and is currently awaiting approval. The firm also bought carbon credits to offset the carbon footprint of storing bitcoins. This hedge fund manager is one of the biggest proponents of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so his comments came as a surprise to many.
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| Trading Signal for RIPPLE, XRP for September 27 - 28, 2021: Key level $ 0,9500 (SMA 21) Posted: 27 Sep 2021 08:36 AM PDT
Ripple is trading above the 21 SMA in 4-hour charts, slightly above the bearish channel that is projected from September 10. Above the bullish channel, it is forming a technical pattern of an ascending wedge. A recovery is expected above 0.9576 in the next few hours. At the fundamental level, on September 24 the People's Bank of China (PBoC) published a new set of measures to promote interdepartmental coordination in an effort to crack down on cryptocurrency exchanges. The measures are intended to cut payment channels, ban websites and mobile applications. The news is generating uncertainty in the crypto market, and could escalate a panic. This could weaken the main cryptocurrency BTC and in turn the altcoins could fall like Ripple. Therefore, if BTC consolidates below the psychological level of 40,000, the scenario will be very bearish for XRP. So, it could fall to the level of 0.65 and 0.50. While the market consolidates, we can buy XRP above the 21 SMA with targets at the 200 EMA located at 1.0410 and 1.0742 (3/8), the eagle indicator is showing bullish signal. The EMA of 200 is the key as long as the price of Ripple is below this level. Any attempt to rise and any fake breakouts will be a good opportunity to sell Ripple with targets at 0.9766 and and 0.8789 level of 1/8 murray. Support and Resistance Levels for September 27 - 28, 2021 Resistance (3) 1,0303 Resistance (2) 0,9910 Resistance (1) 0,9686 ---------------------------- Support (1) 0,9293 Support (2) 0,9069 Support (3) 0,8789 *********************************************************** Trading tip for RIPPLE for September 27 - 28, 2021 Buy above 0,9576 (SMA 21) with take profit at 0,9766 and 1,0410 (EMA 200), stop loss below 0,9230. Sell below 0,9230 with take profit at 0,8980 and 0,8789 (1/8), stop loss above 0,9520. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for NASDAQ 100, #NDX, for September 27 - 28, 2021: Buy above 15,200 (SMA 21) Posted: 27 Sep 2021 07:53 AM PDT
The Nasdaq 100 technology index (#NDX) is trading below a downtrend channel that is projected since September 7. In the European session, the index tried to break the top of this channel, but has not been able to manage it. Now it is making a correction below this level and below the 200 EMA. The main trend according to the daily chart continues to be bullish for the Nasdaq 100. The interim trend has been bearish since September 3, so the price could extend weakness. However, the United States economy is showing a little recovery which is benefiting the rise of the Nasdaq index and others, but #NDX needs a catalyst to consolidate above 15,400. The SMA level of 21 is the key level to watch. If the Nasdaq consolidates above 15,200 in the 4-hour chart, a recovery is likely to happen and the index could gain momentum to break the top of the bearish channel. On the contrary, if the Nasdaq trades below the SMA of 21 around 15,150, it is likely that the downward pressure will intensify and the price may fall to the psychological level of 15,000. This level is very strong since September 20. As a result, the Nasdaq has made a strong technical bounce. If the index consolidates around this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy again. The technical reading of the eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal, so a correction towards the level of the 21 SMA around 15,200 or a strong technical bounce above 4/8 of murray and psychological level of 15,000 will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 15,400 (top bearish channel) and 15,625 (6/8 of murray). Support and Resistance Levels for September 27 - 28, 2021 Resistance (3) 15,386 Resistance (2) 15,312 Resistance (1) 15,230 ---------------------------- Support (1) 15,131 Support (2) 15,073 Support (3) 14,980 *********************************************************** Trading tip for NASDAQ 100 for September 27 - 28, 2021 Buy above 15,200 (SMA 21) with take profit at 15,312 and 15,400, stop loss below 15,130. Sell below 15,150 with take profit at 15,000 (4/8), stop loss above 15,230. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 27 - 28, 2021: Buy if pair breaks 1.1718 (bearish channel) Posted: 27 Sep 2021 06:49 AM PDT
EUR/USD is trading within a bearish channel that is projected since September 3 and that became more bearish since September 14. The bearish pressure is still pushing the pair down, although the eagle indicator shows an increase in the volume of the market. EUR has not been able to overcome the resistance level of the SMA of 21 which is now located at 1.1718. In the European session, the Euro has come to test the support level of -1/8 of murray around 1.1685. Will this be a double bottom signal? We only have to wait for confirmation if the EUR / USD pair breaks above 1.1718. There is 0/8 of murray, the SMA of 21 and the top of the bearish channel, which has become a strong resistance zone. The short-term outlook looks bearish for the Euro. As long as the pair remains below 1.1718, the selling pressure could increase and there could be a drop in the pair towards the -2/8 murray level located at 1.1657. This level is key because it represents the low of November 1, 2020. A strong technical rebound is expected. If that does not happen, EUR/USD could quickly fall to the psychological level of 1.15. The increase in bond yields is giving strength to the USDX dollar index, which is keeping all the pairs that trade against the dollar under pressure. Besides, yields of 10-year Treasuries are at a one-month high close to 1.50%. A correction in the higher bonds could give the Euro some breathing space, and could be a good chance to consolidate above 1.1718. The key to waiting for an increase in the euro. Taking a bullish position, we could buy only if EUR/USD breaks sharply and consolidates above the bearish channel. Targets can be located at the EMA of 200 around 1.1785. The eagle indicator then rejected the 5-point level. The fact of breaking the bearish channel is a bullish signal. Support and Resistance Levels for September 27 - 28, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.1796 Resistance (2) 1.1743 Resistance (1) 1.1618 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.1682 Support (2) 1.1674 Support (3) 1.1649 *********************************************************** Trading tip for EUR/USD for September 27 - 28, 2021 Buy if the pair breaks above 1.1718 (SMA 21 and 0/8) with take profit at 1.1750 and 1.1785 (EMA 200), stop loss below 1.1685. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: Stagflation scares the pound Posted: 27 Sep 2021 06:16 AM PDT The specter of stagflation continues to haunt Britain. The Bank of England predicts that consumer prices will remain above 4% in the second quarter of 2022, and hints at a gradual tightening of monetary policy while leading indicators indicate a serious slowdown in GDP. Low economic growth and high inflation. In such an unfavorable environment, fans of the pound have to act. Frightened by the return of COVID-19, upcoming tax hikes, accelerating prices, and depleting fiscal stimulus, consumers are starting to spend less, affecting GDP. According to GfK research, consumer confidence in Britain saw the fastest decline since October 2020. If you add to this the slowdown in business activity to the March lows, as well as the approach of the manufacturing PMI to the critical level of 50, it becomes clear that the economy is slowing down. Dynamics of consumer confidence in Britain
Business dynamics in Britain
In such a situation, even the "hawkish" hints of the BoE do not become a catalyst for the strengthening of the sterling against the major world currencies. At the September meeting, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to end QE, while officials unanimously said that a repo rate hike could occur before the end of the quantitative easing program. BoE believes that inflation at 4% and above will remain in April-June next year, however, argues that an immediate tightening of monetary policy is not required. It should be smooth and gradual. This apparently hawkish rhetoric has allowed money markets to increase the number of alleged monetary restrictions from one (in May 2022) to two (in May and December). Then the first increase in the repo rate moved to November of the current year altogether. Many investors believe that the next meeting of the MPC will be very lively. However, they are in no hurry to buy the pound. Especially against the US dollar, which looks very strong at the end of September in light of the potential QE tapering. The pound is under pressure from the confusion with Evergrande and the US debt ceiling. Both events can end in defaults. In the first case, the infection can spread to the entire Chinese economy and significantly slow it down. In the second, the consequences can be much worse. According to Jerome Powell, there is no need to think that the Fed or anyone else will save the economy and financial markets from turmoil. Sterling is sensitive to changing global risk appetite as the UK, which has a substantial current account surplus, needs to fund it. And it's best done when local assets are sold out like hot cakes. Technically, GBP/USD bears are trying to build an impenetrable fortress around 1.358-1.36 using the Triple Bottom pattern. However, there is no guarantee that it will stop the sellers. The signal for the formation of short positions is the breakout of the lower border of the inside bar near 1.3655. GBP/USD, Daily chart
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| Bitcoin could drop to $30k by the end of the year; how likely is it? Posted: 27 Sep 2021 05:47 AM PDT Bitcoin successfully bounced off $40k early last week and has since firmly settled in the $43k - $45k corridor. At the same time, the coin is in the stage of consolidation without claims to exit the current range of fluctuations. It is also worth noting the shaken confidence of long-term cryptocurrency holders, who staged a local sale of the coin in mid-September. The behavior of medium-term holders is also not encouraging, as the number of BTCs that has not moved in three months has reached a low since mid-2015. PlanB, who predicted a possible drop of bitcoin to $30k at the end of this year, also added fuel to the fire. Crypto analyst PlanB has identified a scenario in which Bitcoin will fall to $30k at the end of 2021, according to the S2F price movement modeling algorithms. The speculation was made by the creator of the Stock to Flow model of bitcoin, who stated that if the price movement continues according to the time model, the coin will cost $30k. At the same time, the S2F model still expects to see the price of bitcoin in the $100k region. The Stock to Flow model is based on calculating the ratio of market supply and annual growth of a cryptocurrency. In other words, the main idea of this model is that the more scarce an asset is, the more valuable it is.
Despite some chaos from this statement, multiplied by the nervousness of the market, the issue of falling to $30k is being seriously discussed. Such a scenario should not be completely ruled out, but this is unlikely given the growing inflation, maintaining the current rate and other positive theses voiced at the Fed meeting. In addition, we should not discount the growing institutionalization of bitcoin and its gradual introduction into all spheres of life of ordinary people. Whales continue to accumulate BTC volumes, and the currency hash rate is setting new local highs. In October, an important Taproot update will start, which will also become an important lever in the investment attractiveness of the coin. The main fundamental and medium-term factors are entirely on the side of bitcoin, and therefore there is every reason to count on the growth of the asset by the end of the year. If we consider a more local perspective, then everything looks more gloomy due to the next portion of the bans by the Chinese authorities. Due to the complete ban on cryptocurrency transactions in China and the persecution of Korean crypto exchanges, massive movements of bitcoins will begin, which will create a heavy load on the network of currency and platforms. This can be fraught with problems in the operation of the main network, as well as possible fluctuations in the value of bitcoin, which can provoke a sale. Right now, the cryptocurrency has recovered from falling to $40k and is in the stage of price consolidation. We should not expect sharp or systematic periods of growth in the near future since the main task of the coin is to stabilize the price. In the third quarter, this cycle should end and provoke active market growth in the final quarter of 2021. The most acceptable strategy for most players now is the accumulation of coins that consolidate at local lows. Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the local corridor of $43k - $44.5k, and over the past day, the price has increased by 5%. At the same time, trading volumes remain at an average level, and the asset itself is quoted at $43.5k. Bulls and bears arrange local battles, but it is impossible to significantly influence the price even against the backdrop of negative news from China and nervousness associated with Korean crypto exchanges. This indicates a stabilization of the price, and therefore soon we will start active accumulation of BTC. On the four-hour chart, the coin looks weak, there are prerequisites for movement towards the lower border of the current fluctuation range. The RSI indicator started a downward movement, which indicates the strengthening of sellers' positions, and the stochastic formed a bullish crossover, but began to decline. A bearish divergence is potentially forming on MACD, but, most likely, the metric will also begin to decline after leaving the red zone.
On the daily chart, the situation has leveled off and bitcoin is confidently moving flat. The RSI and stochastic indicators are moving along the 50 mark, and the MACD forms the prerequisites for an upward movement, which is also fraught with divergence. Given the current performance of technical indicators, bitcoin will continue to move sideways with attempts to exit the current range of fluctuations. Taking into account the news background and the constant movements of coins due to problems in South Korea, breakout attempts are likely to be bearish, and therefore the probability of another retest of $40k increases.
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| Cardano announces stablecoin issuing and begins DeFi sector developing Posted: 27 Sep 2021 05:36 AM PDT After a significant drop in mid-September and a rather unsuccessful Alonzo update, ADA managed to prevent the fall near the $2 level. The cryptocurrency continued to swing in the narrow range and was accumulating for the past few weeks. However, Cardano developers are working on the issues and have already begun the gradual launch of smart contracts in the mainnet. In addition, in the near future, there will be a significant development of the Cardano ecosystem, which may have a positive impact on the quotation of its coin. The most notable news regarding the ADA/USD pair was the announcement of the first algorithmic stablecoins launch in the mainnet. The coin is called Djed and will be provided with the support of smart contracts. The algorithms will use the basic coins for transactions. It is needed for the new Cardano token to swing around $1. The ability to pay commissions in the ADA network is called the main feature of stablecoin. In addition, new algorithms were created for potential use in DeFi projects. Also, the introduction of its coin will help optimize the blockchain and the Cardano ecosystem as a whole. This is a very important feature, given that the project announced a collaboration with Dish Network. The cooperation is aimed at the integration of blockchain into the company's business processes. The second important announcement was Cardano's $100 million investment in the development of DeFi projects based on ADA. It will significantly increase the number and efficiency of decentralized finance projects, which will influence the development of the entire Cardano ecosystem. In addition, Chainlink is cooperating with the project and is helping to create smart contracts for the DeFi applications. In the short term, these announcements will not bring much growth to the cryptocurrency, but it could potentially be perceived as an intention to compete with ETH and SOL in the DeFi and NFT spheres. The development of the ecosystem will directly affect the price of the cryptocurrency, but this process will take some time, as optimizing processes and implementing new algorithms require a lot of resources. There is no doubt that the cryptocurrency will continue to expand and grow in volume as news tells about the Cardano ecosystem's bright future. Today is seen as a profitable entry point into the ADA market. Over the past 24 hours, the ADA/USD pair gained 1% and is quoted at $2.25 as of 3 p.m. At the same time, daily trading volumes remain low, around $3 billion with a market capitalization of $72 billion. Technical indicators show the cryptocurrency is consolidating, as demonstrated by mirror indicators of the price after the formation of a bullish engulfing candlestick on September 22. On the daily chart, technical indicators signal a sideways trend due to price stabilization. Stochastic oscillator and RSI are moving along the 40, and MACD has moved out of the red zone and continues sideways under the zero level.
The situation is similar on the 4-hour chart, though stochastic started declining above the 40 mark, while the RSI managed to stabilize. Considering ADA's unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance located at $2.4, the market is gradually accumulating the necessary volumes and the coin will test that level later. While the coin continues to swing in the range of $2.14-$2.25, this period may be considered as an entry point or a possibility to buy more coins with the chances of a further uptrend. Cardano's ADA will most likely start using the potential of the Alonzo update already in October, which may attract new users. This may allow implementing a bullish momentum that is beginning to form now.
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| Technical analysis for Bitcoin Posted: 27 Sep 2021 05:35 AM PDT Bitcoin
The bulls were able to stop a major decline at the close of the previous week by forming a long lower shadow on the weekly candlestick. Due to this, we have seen consolidation in the accumulation area of various levels and continuous uncertainty in the last few days. The center of gravity can now be designated at 43883 - 42753 (daily Tenkan + weekly Fibo Kijun). Currently, the resistances that hinder the development of the upward movement can be noted at the borders of 45033 (weekly short-term trend) and 46180 - 46960 (daily levels + weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan). Now, the bears have to break through the levels of 41513 - 41537 (monthly Fibo Kijun + weekly Senkou Span A) to regain their advantages and opportunities, and then leave the daily cloud and update last week's minimum extremum (39491).
Bitcoin has moved above key levels in the smaller timeframes, which are joining forces around 42658 - 43134 (weekly long-term trend + central pivot level). This arrangement favors the bullish mood to develop. The upward pivot points are the resistances of the classic pivot levels at 44611 - 45661 - 47614. It is worth noting that the breakdown of the key support levels (42658 - 43134) and consolidation below will change the current balance of power on the hourly chart, which will favor the bears. In this case, we can consider the support of the classic pivot levels set at 41607 - 39655 - 38604 to be the downward pivot points. *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this cryptocurrency. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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