Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for September 27. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.
- Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 27. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. Bears
- How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 27? Simple tips for beginners
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of September 27 - October 1. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of September 27 - October 1. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report.
| Posted: 26 Sep 2021 07:45 PM PDT GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair resumed the downward movement on September 24, as evidenced by both linear regression channels that are directed downward. The pair traded quite actively last Friday, although there were practically no macroeconomic reports and fundamental events that day. Thus, nothing influenced the pair's movement, except for the technical picture. Unfortunately, the pair moved in a radically opposite way than the EUR/USD pair. If the euro stayed in one place throughout the European session, the pound was trading in a narrow horizontal channel in the US session. It is difficult to say what caused such a difference in movements, since there was no important news and reports. However, traders had to work with what they had. No trading signals generated during the European trading session. The first signal was formed, in fact, when the movement had already ended. This signal was in the form of surpassing the critical Kijun-sen line and turned out to be false, but it could have been used to avoid losses, since the price reached the support level of 1.3663 and bounced off it. Consequently, a signal was received to close short positions. However, we remind you that regular support and resistance levels are not sources of signals. Therefore, long positions should not be opened. The next signal was formed near the same critical line, but for a buy. It also turned out to be false, since the upward movement was not continued. Therefore, it should have been manually closed when the price settled below the Kijun-sen line. The loss was 15 points. All subsequent signals near the Kijun-sen line should not have been worked out, since at that moment two false signals had already been formed, and the movement ended. GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair began a strong upward movement on the hourly timeframe last week, but it was in a downward trend on Thursday and Friday. As the level of 1.3600 still remains unbreakable, further prospects for the dollar's growth remain a big question. Nevertheless, you should not give up on this scenario. It just needs to be worked out, if the price settles below 1.3600, not earlier. So far, a new upward trend has not been formed, so one should pay more attention to the lower timeframe. On September 27, we distinguish the following important levels: 1.3519, 1.3570, 1.3601 - 1.3607, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794. Senkou Span B (1.3775) and Kijun-sen (1.3679) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. No major events scheduled in the UK and the United States on Monday, so the pound/dollar pair may move stiffly and with low volatility. However, in the coming days, traders should understand how the market is set up in relation to the 1.3600 level. If it is not overcome, then the likelihood of a new upward trend will increase even more. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair. COT report
Major players weakened their bullish sentiment during the last reporting week (September 14-20). Although it is now as neutral as possible. The fact is that the value of the net position for the group of "non-commercial" traders is now equal to 0 (approximately). Consequently, neither bulls nor bears have the initiative. Moreover, in the last couple of months, the mood of professional traders has been constantly changing, as the net position is either increasing or decreasing. Thus, from our point of view, the conclusion is obvious: the Commitment of Traders (COT) report does not indicate either bullish or bearish sentiment. The problem lies in the plane of the same level of 1.3600, which can be seen in the second chart even better than in the first one. The pair cannot go below this level, but it is not yet able to start an upward trend. Therefore, we need to wait for a new development of the level of 1.3600. Although this week it has already done so and another rebound followed. Therefore, an upward movement to the previous local high may begin next week. We also draw attention to the fact that the pound was unable to continue its downward movement even at a time when non-commercial traders were actively increasing their short positions. This "dip" in the net position below zero is clearly visible on the charts of both indicators in the chart. That is, the pound did not fall below 1.3600 even when it was actively sold by large players. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2021 07:44 PM PDT EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair tried to continue the downward movement last Friday, but, by and large, again without much success. As we have said more than once, the reinforced level of 1.1704 does not let the price fall below it. Thus, in the medium term, there are still high chances for a new upward trend to form. Nevertheless, the quotes repeatedly return to the level of 1.1704, and the bears are trying to overcome it again and again. Fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds did not provide any support to the dollar on Friday. Moreover, they did not affect the pair's movement at all. Nevertheless, several trading signals were formed during the day, and they were quite strong, although not the most accurate. The first signal was formed during the entire European trading session, because all this time the price was moving strictly along the Kijun-sen line. Nevertheless, in the end the quotes dropped below this line, which served as a signal to open short positions. The closest level - 1.1704 - was worked out just a couple of hours later, and it worked out almost perfectly. Since a rebound followed from it, short positions should have been closed and long positions were opened. The price subsequently returned to the level of 1.1704 one more time and bounced again. But this was the end of the movement on Friday, so traders could earn literally 10 points from a long position. The profit on a short position was about 20 points. Thus, 30 points of profit, given that the volatility was 46 points, is an excellent result. EUR/USD 1H
You see that the euro/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe, but the 1.1704 level (with the exception of one moment last week) cannot be overcome. Thus, the upward correction to the trend line may continue today or tomorrow. If the bulls manage to overcome the trend line, this will allow the pair to continue moving up, which could be the beginning of a new upward trend. Recall that we continue to expect the formation of a new upward trend, however, the US dollar continues to somehow miraculously keep in a positive direction for itself. On Monday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.1612, 1.1666, 1.1704, 1.1750, 1.1805, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1775) and Kijun-sen (1.1719) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Only the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde can be distinguished from the important events on September 27. The markets may trade more actively during her speech, but everything will depend on how important the information she shares is. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair. COT report
The mood of non-commercial traders became less bullish again during the last reporting week (September 14-20). This is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator, which is responsible for displaying the net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders. Thus, the most important category of traders at this time continues to look towards short positions on the euro in the medium term. Nevertheless, they have not been able to go beyond the "zero line" for several weeks already. Thus, their sentiment does not change to bearish, and the pair cannot overcome the 1.1700 level. Consequently, everything rests not only on the level of 1.1700, but also on the mood of big traders who have been very reluctant to sell the euro in recent weeks. It is also clearly seen that their net position has been declining for a long time (second indicator), but at the same time it cannot become negative. As a result, the pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700 - 1.2300 for about nine months. While facing the horizontal channel, the movement for this period of time can not be called flat. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 27? Simple tips for beginners Posted: 26 Sep 2021 02:21 PM PDT Analysis of Friday's deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair traded rather weakly on Friday. It passed 46 points from the high to the low of the day. Nevertheless, the movement was still there, so it had to be worked out. However, before we start analyzing trading signals, it should be noted that the pair has completed the downward trend, but at the same time cannot start a new upward trend. Recall that a few days ago the quotes crossed the downward trend line, which is a signal to change the trend. However, so far, the price spends most of the time around the level of 1.1704. Despite the fact that this week the results of the Federal Reserve meeting took place, the pair's rate remained practically unchanged, which is clearly seen in the chart above. By and large, the pair spent the entirety of last week in a horizontal channel. Now with regard to macroeconomic statistics and the foundation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was set to speak on Friday, but this time he did not tell the markets anything important. Basically, it was hard to expect anything new from him after his press conference, which took place just two days ago. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe was very good on Friday. Despite the fact that the pair was trading in a very limited range all week, some interesting signals were formed on the last day of the week. The first, unfortunately, turned out to be very fuzzy. It took almost the entire European session to form it. Nevertheless, when it formed (consolidation below the level of 1.1735), the price went down and almost perfectly reached the level of 1.1704, from which a rebound followed, which means that it was necessary to manually close short positions. The profit on this trade was about 20 points. Since there was a rebound from the level of 1.1704, it was a buy signal. As a result, the pair did not go up more than 15 points, nevertheless, about 10 points of profit could be taken, since the signal was not false. The checkmark in the chart above marks the time when Powell's talk began. As you can see, the markets did not react at that time, except for the reaction of a movement equal to 10 points. How to trade on Monday: The EUR/USD pair is trying to form an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. Therefore, it is possible to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but we remind you that they should be formed as close to the zero level as possible. At the moment, the indicator is not close. The key levels for September 27 on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.1685, 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech on Monday, but no further major events are scheduled for that day. Therefore, you should be extremely cautious during Lagarde's speech, but at the same time we do not believe that Lagarde will mention anything new and important. Most likely, the day will pass in the most relaxed movements. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2021 07:43 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has lost only 15 points this week, despite the most important event – the Fed meeting. There were no changes at all. Moreover, the volatility of the pair was again quite weak and did not correspond to the nature of those fundamental events. Thus, the pair's quotes again fell to the level of 1.1700, near which there has already been an upward turn several times. From a technical point of view, the level of 1.1700 is of great importance. The fact that the price has already failed to overcome it at least three times indicates a very likely new upward reversal. Moreover, the Fed has not decided to curtail the quantitative stimulus program, which means that the US dollar has lost market support. But, on the other hand, each subsequent rebound from the level of 1.1700 was less than the previous one, which indicates the weakness of the bulls. Thus, the pair remains in the "border zone". Overcoming the level of 1.1700 can open up new prospects for bears, who can rush to at least the 16th level. At the same time, another unsuccessful attempt to overcome 1.1700 may provoke a powerful growth of the pair to the highs of the year. Unfortunately, the fundamental background does not answer the question of what to expect from the pair in the coming months. The Fed and the ECB will likely reduce their stimulus programs (QE and PEPP) at about the same time. Thus, the volume of printed money entering the US and EU economies will decrease approximately equally. From this point of view, the US dollar is again losing long-term support. Therefore, we are paying more attention to technology for now. And the technique now suggests that the downward trend continues, but is weakening. Traders failed to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud, but they also cannot overcome the level of 1.1700. Thus, it will be possible to consider medium-term purchases of the pair no earlier than the consolidation of quotes above the Kijun-sen line and the Ichimoku cloud. The COT report.
During the last reporting week (September 20-24), the mood of non-commercial traders again became "less bullish". It is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator, which is responsible for displaying the net position of a group of "Non-commercial" traders. Thus, the most important category of traders at this time continues to look towards the sale of the European currency in the medium term. However, they have not been able to go beyond the "zero lines" for several weeks. Thus, their mood does not change to "bearish", and the pair cannot overcome the level of 1.1700. Therefore, everything depends on the level of 1.1700 and also on the mood of large traders who have been very reluctant to sell the euro currency in recent weeks. It is also clearly visible that their net position has been declining for a long time (the second indicator), but it cannot become negative. As a result, the pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700-1.2300 for about 9 months. On the face of the side channel, although the movement for this period can not be called "flat". This trading week, all the attention of traders was directed to the Fed meeting. However, the US central bank disappointed traders. The forecast for the economy for 2021 was lowered, and no reduction in the QE program was announced. Thus, the US dollar simply did not get new grounds for growth. Nevertheless, there are hints in Jerome Powell's rhetoric about a possible curtailment of the QE program in November or December. The corresponding decision will be made at the next meeting. The markets paid almost no attention to the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the United States and the EU, which were published on Thursday. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that these reports showed a rather serious decline in business activity in the European Union. It seems that we are again talking about a decrease in the pace of economic recovery and the reason may be the "coronavirus" and a new wave of diseases in European countries. Especially now, when the colder time of the year has come. Trading plan for the week of September 27 – October 1: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the upward trend has not changed, since the bulls failed to develop success and overcome the level of 1.1886. At the moment, the quotes have fallen below the critical line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud, and continue their downward movement. Thus, at this time, the pair's sales are more relevant, which could already be opened when the price was fixed below the critical line. If the bears manage to overcome the 17th level, then it will be possible to stay in sales with the target of 1.1602. 2) As for the purchases of the euro/dollar pair, we still believe that the global upward trend can be resumed. But at the same time, there are no technical signals now. At a minimum, you need to wait for a new consolidation of quotes above the Kijun-sen line and only then consider the possibility of buying the pair. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance( resistance/support), Fibonacci levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators(standard settings), Bollinger Bands(standard settings), MACD (5, 34, 5). Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2021 02:20 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has lost only 15 points this week, despite the most important event – the Fed meeting. There were no changes at all. Moreover, the volatility of the pair was again quite weak and did not correspond to the nature of those fundamental events. Thus, the pair's quotes again fell to the level of 1.1700, near which there has already been an upward turn several times. From a technical point of view, the level of 1.1700 is of great importance. The fact that the price has already failed to overcome it at least three times indicates a very likely new upward reversal. Moreover, the Fed has not decided to curtail the quantitative stimulus program, which means that the US dollar has lost market support. But, on the other hand, each subsequent rebound from the level of 1.1700 was less than the previous one, which indicates the weakness of the bulls. Thus, the pair remains in the "border zone". Overcoming the level of 1.1700 can open up new prospects for bears, who can rush to at least the 16th level. At the same time, another unsuccessful attempt to overcome 1.1700 may provoke a powerful growth of the pair to the highs of the year. Unfortunately, the fundamental background does not answer the question of what to expect from the pair in the coming months. The Fed and the ECB will likely reduce their stimulus programs (QE and PEPP) at about the same time. Thus, the volume of printed money entering the US and EU economies will decrease approximately equally. From this point of view, the US dollar is again losing long-term support. Therefore, we are paying more attention to technology for now. And the technique now suggests that the downward trend continues, but is weakening. Traders failed to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud, but they also cannot overcome the level of 1.1700. Thus, it will be possible to consider medium-term purchases of the pair no earlier than the consolidation of quotes above the Kijun-sen line and the Ichimoku cloud. The COT report.
During the last reporting week (September 20-24), the mood of non-commercial traders again became "less bullish". It is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator, which is responsible for displaying the net position of a group of "Non-commercial" traders. Thus, the most important category of traders at this time continues to look towards the sale of the European currency in the medium term. However, they have not been able to go beyond the "zero lines" for several weeks. Thus, their mood does not change to "bearish", and the pair cannot overcome the level of 1.1700. Therefore, everything depends on the level of 1.1700 and also on the mood of large traders who have been very reluctant to sell the euro currency in recent weeks. It is also clearly visible that their net position has been declining for a long time (the second indicator), but it cannot become negative. As a result, the pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700-1.2300 for about 9 months. On the face of the side channel, although the movement for this period can not be called "flat". This trading week, all the attention of traders was directed to the Fed meeting. However, the US central bank disappointed traders. The forecast for the economy for 2021 was lowered, and no reduction in the QE program was announced. Thus, the US dollar simply did not get new grounds for growth. Nevertheless, there are hints in Jerome Powell's rhetoric about a possible curtailment of the QE program in November or December. The corresponding decision will be made at the next meeting. The markets paid almost no attention to the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the United States and the EU, which were published on Thursday. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that these reports showed a rather serious decline in business activity in the European Union. It seems that we are again talking about a decrease in the pace of economic recovery and the reason may be the "coronavirus" and a new wave of diseases in European countries. Especially now, when the colder time of the year has come. Trading plan for the week of September 27 – October 1: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the upward trend has not changed, since the bulls failed to develop success and overcome the level of 1.1886. At the moment, the quotes have fallen below the critical line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud, and continue their downward movement. Thus, at this time, the pair's sales are more relevant, which could already be opened when the price was fixed below the critical line. If the bears manage to overcome the 17th level, then it will be possible to stay in sales with the target of 1.1602. 2) As for the purchases of the euro/dollar pair, we still believe that the global upward trend can be resumed. But at the same time, there are no technical signals now. At a minimum, you need to wait for a new consolidation of quotes above the Kijun-sen line and only then consider the possibility of buying the pair. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance( resistance/support), Fibonacci levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators(standard settings), Bollinger Bands(standard settings), MACD (5, 34, 5). Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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