Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Technical analysis for BCH/USD pair
- How to trade the GBP/USD pair on September 20? Simple tips for beginners
- How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 20? Simple tips for beginners
- Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another bearish reversal.
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of September 20-24. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. The British pound
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of September 20-24. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. Good statistics
| Technical analysis for BCH/USD pair Posted: 19 Sep 2021 04:55 PM PDT BCH/USD
The bulls were able to work out the upward target for the breakdown of the daily cloud (805.67) almost perfectly, but they failed to hold on to the situation and consolidate at the reached heights. Thus, its opponent managed to achieve a major decline. The reference and support here was the weekly short-term trend (593.30). The decline was replaced by a long consolidation, the center of gravity is currently the daily levels 624.54 - 639.28 (Tenkan + the upper border of the daily cloud). The persistence of uncertainty, which led to consolidation, will keep the pair in the range of influence of 625-639. To change the situation, players need to break through the resistances that have united in a fairly wide zone 669.15 - 694.57 - 708.92 - 719.99 (daily cross levels + monthly Fibo Kijun). In order for new prospects to appear, the short-term weekly trend (593.30) must finally be captured, since it blocks the way to support the lower border of the daily cloud (547.96) and the upper border of the weekly cloud (529.78).
The key levels in the smaller time frames help contain the situation for the levels of the higher ones (625 - 639), which are now located at 624 - 633 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Such a situation has been developing for a long time in the influence and attraction zone of these levels. The location and trading below the levels create some advantages for the bears. After breaking the current support 612 (S1), the next pivot points on the hourly chart can be noted at 604 (S2) and 592 (S3). In case of consolidation above the key levels (624 - 633) of the higher time frames, the preponderance of forces will shift to the bullish side. Their reference pivot points will be the resistances of the classic pivot levels 644 and 652. *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of the trading instruments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| How to trade the GBP/USD pair on September 20? Simple tips for beginners Posted: 19 Sep 2021 02:15 PM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair was trading lower on the 30-minute timeframe on Friday, as well as on Thursday. In general, the downward movement for the pound began four days ago. Therefore, it became possible to form a downward trend line, which now supports the bears. Admittedly, volatility has also increased, so trading the pair as a whole has become much more pleasant. On Friday, it was even possible to reject sell signals from the MACD indicator. Several of them were even formed. In particular, two rebounds from the trend line, as well as two downward reversals of the MACD indicator. But since there was no trend line yet in our last article on the pound, we will not consider these signals. On Friday, the fall in the British currency at first glance was completely justified, because the morning report on retail sales for August was weaker than forecasted. However, we draw the attention of novice traders that the pair's fall began much later than the publication of the retail sales report. Thus, this report has nothing to do with the pair's movement on Friday. The same can be said for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. However, it simply had no effect on the markets. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair's movement on the 5-minute timeframe last Friday was about the same as on the EUR/USD pair. The movement was mainly sideways during the European trading session, while it was downward during the US session. However, the pound had a more volatile flat than the euro during the European trading session, which resulted in forming false signals. In general, all signals from the European trading session turned out to be false. And there were two of them. The first one is to buy - consolidating above the level of 1.3796. The second one is to sell - consolidating below the same level. Unfortunately, these two trades resulted in a loss of 30 points. And the last sell signal near the level of 1.3796, which was formed already in the US session, should not have been worked out, since before that two false signals had already formed around this level. Therefore, just a profitable signal was missed. However, it should also be noted that the first and third signals were very weak and indistinct, since their formation took at least an hour. For example, the fourth and fifth signals formed in 5 minutes and were strong. In principle, you can clearly see how well they are worked out. Therefore, the first and third signals could not be worked out. On the fourth signal, beginners could open short positions, which by the end of the day brought 20-25 points of profit. Therefore, most of the possible losses on the first two trades were covered. Still, it was not a good day to trade. How to trade on Monday: At this time, the pound/dollar pair has formed a downward trend with a downtrend line on the 30-minute timeframe. However, we remind you that the current downward movement (that is, the strengthening of the dollar) may be an "advance" for the future Federal Reserve meeting, from which the markets are expecting a reduction in the QE program. Thus, it is possible that the trend will be short-lived. However, sell signals from the MACD indicator can still be considered. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3677, 1.3729, 1.3764, 1.3796, 1.3830. We recommend trading with them. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. No major events scheduled in either the US or the UK for Monday. Therefore, you will have to trade on pure technique and expectations regarding the Fed meeting. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the EUR/USD review. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| How to trade the EUR/USD pair on September 20? Simple tips for beginners Posted: 19 Sep 2021 02:15 PM PDT Analysis of Friday deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement on Friday, which began a day earlier. Thus, at this time, we can even talk about the formation of a downward trend, but there is no trend line or downward trend channel. Therefore, for now, we would not draw such conclusions. At this time, much depends on the Federal Reserve meeting and its results, which will be announced on Wednesday. Markets can already trade "with an eye" on this event. This means that the dollar's current growth can easily be replaced by a fall on Wednesday or even earlier. Since there is no clear trend at this time, we still do not recommend considering signals from the MACD indicator. Let us remind you that if you do not take the last two trading days into account, the volatility in the EUR/USD pair remains very weak. As we said, Friday's macroeconomic statistics did not cause any reaction from the markets. The consumer price index in the European Union in the second assessment in August amounted to the same 3.0% as in the first. And the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was 71.0 points against the forecast of 71.9. As you can see, the discrepancy is small. And in any case, in the last two days, the pair mostly fell, not paying too much attention to the statistics. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture on Friday was pretty good. Unfortunately, the quotes practically stood in one place in the first half of the day, there was practically no movement. But in the second half of the day, the pair showed a rather strong downward movement. Nevertheless, five trading signals were formed during the day, which should be analyzed. The first two buy signals were very fuzzy and could be completely ignored. When a signal takes a couple of hours to form, this is unlikely to indicate its strength. Nevertheless, we will consider the option in which all signals that should have been processed are processed. Thus, after these two buy signals, novice traders could enter long positions. Were these signals false? They should have been manually closed when the price settled below the 1.1775 level. Short positions should have been opened in the same place, which brought the main profit, since the price subsequently crossed the next two levels of 1.1750 (the previous day's low) and 1.1735. Thus, a profit of about 40 points could be made on a short position. And a loss of 14 points on a long position. The total profit is 26 points. How to trade on Monday: The EUR/USD pair has been moving for a long time without any trend on the 30-minute timeframe. The movements are still not strong, but in recent days, the pair began to show signs of life. However, we still do not recommend considering the MACD indicator as a source of trading signals. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1666, 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750, 1.1775, 1.1802. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. Neither the European Union nor the United States is scheduled for any important macroeconomic publications or fundamental events on Monday. However, we remind you that the results of the Fed meeting will be summed up on Wednesday, so the markets can trade the pair, looking specifically at the US central bank meeting. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another bearish reversal. Posted: 19 Sep 2021 10:09 AM PDT Bitcoin made a new higher high yesterday at $48,719. Short-term trend remains bullish however there are several signs pointing to a coming reversal. The RSI has provided a bearish divergence as it did not make higher highs. Price is showing rejection signs at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline.
Green rectangle- bounce target area Bitcoin made a higher high closer to our bounce target area. Price is showing reversal signs after reaching between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to stay above $46,600 will be a sign of reversal. So far we only have a warning of an imminent reversal. Our primary scenario remains bearish expecting another leg lower towards $37,000. Bears want to see price stay below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and eventually break below $46,000. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2021 02:20 AM PDT GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair fell by 120 points this week, although it stood in one place for most of the week. In the first half of this week, it was still possible that the pound fell ill with the "euro disease," which is expressed in the strongest drop in volatility in the last six months or a year. The pound/dollar pair has moved quite actively from time to time. However, we recall that 100-130 points per day are considered normal volatility for it. At the end of this week, the pound still cheered up and began to show at least an "average" value of volatility. What is noteworthy is that both major pairs moved almost identically on Thursday and Friday. Thus, the conclusion is obvious: the reasons for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the euro and the pound lie precisely in the United States. And to be more precise, the Fed. In this week's last two trading days, one important report was published in the UK and the States. Both of them published data on retail trade. These reports are quite important. However, they could hardly provoke a 110-point rise in the dollar. Moreover, on Friday, the pair's downward movement resumed only in the American trading session, and the report on retail sales in Britain was released early in the morning. Thus, we believe that the reasons for the dollar's growth lie solely in the positive expectations of the markets regarding the curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program in September. The Fed meeting will be held next week, and many experts and representatives of the FOMC said that they are waiting for an early announcement of the end of QE. It is this factor that can support the dollar at this time. The question is, how long will it support the demand for the dollar, and will the Fed itself be disappointed on Wednesday? COT report.
During the last reporting week (September 7 - 13), the GBP/USD pair did not add or lose a single point. Recall that in recent weeks, according to COT reports, the mood of major players has changed to bearish. The green line of the first indicator in the illustration above (indicates a change in the "Non-commercial" group) fell below the zero levels. It was the case until the last COT report, which was released on Friday, September 17. At that time, we already questioned the continuation of the fall of the British currency. Simply because the pound, like the euro, has been correcting for more than six months against the global upward trend. And during this time, it managed to adjust by 23.6%. It is minimal and certainly does not look like the formation of a new downward trend. And the latest COT report showed that any expectations of further growth of the dollar might be premature. Although the dollar rose against both the pound and the euro at the end of the week, major players immediately opened 15 thousand contracts to purchase the pound and closed the same number of contracts for sale. The net position for the "Non-commercial" group of traders increased by 30 thousand at once. Considering that only 30 thousand purchase contracts were opened for professional traders until the last COT report, such changes are global. Thus, in the pound, the chances of a further fall are much less than with the euro. Moreover, both the pound and the euro adjusted against the upward trend by 600 points. But for the pound, it is less than 23%, and it is about a third for the euro. There were quite many statistics in the UK during the current week, but again it is difficult to conclude that it had a strong impact on the pair's movement. The data on unemployment and wages, which were published on Tuesday, was not ignored. The inflation report on Wednesday did not interest traders too much. However, even if we talk about statistics on Tuesday, the market reaction was 50 points of growth. And later in the evening, the British currency already fell for no reason. Friday's statistics on British sales were completely ignored on closer inspection, and the pound fell even without this weak report, but already in the afternoon. Thus, the markets reacted very selectively to macroeconomic statistics, clearly keeping the upcoming Fed meeting in mind. Trading plan for the week of September 20-24: 1) The pound/dollar pair has not been able to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud, so the downward trend continues. We remind you that the critical level of the pound is now 1.3600. It was near it that all previous corrections against the global upward trend ended. Therefore, considering the consolidation of quotes below the Kijun-sen line, it is now possible to sell the pair. The goal is 1.3600. If this level is overcome, the chances of a further fall in the pound will increase, but strong changes in the mood of major players suggest that the pair's growth may resume in the near future. 2) The bears continue to hold the initiative in their hands. Therefore, it will be possible to consider purchases again no earlier than the price is fixed back above the critical line. However, pay attention to the Bollinger bands, which have recently been directed more sideways than downwards. And its lower band also passes near the level of 1.3600. Therefore, we still do not expect a strong drop in the pair, but at the same time, we note that there are no signals for growth now. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2021 02:20 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has lost 90 points during the current week. The volatility of the euro/dollar pair has finally increased slightly, which gives hope to traders. In fact, despite the not very large number of fundamental and macroeconomic events during this week, it was quite important. And, as we can see, at the end of the week, the markets came to the same conclusion: volatility increased, trend movement resumed. The only negative is the growth of the dollar, as it slightly violates the technical assumptions that we discussed earlier. However, in any case, we remind you that it is impossible to work out any fundamental theory or forecast without technical confirmation. On the 24-hour timeframe, it is visible that the quotes made an unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold inside the Ichimoku cloud. In addition, the price bounced for the second time from the 61.8% Fibonacci level. We have received two strong sell signals at once in the last couple of weeks. And these signals are large-scale, as they were formed on a daily timeframe. Therefore, so far, our expectations for the formation of a new upward trend are not justified. However, in any case, you should buy the euro no earlier than overcoming the Ichimoku cloud and preferably the level of 1.1886. At the end of this week, the markets sharply intensified and began to buy the US dollar. Given that there were few important statistics these days, and the dollar was growing synchronously in pairs with the euro and the pound, the conclusion is that the reason lies in the upcoming Fed meeting, which will be held next week. Given the number of rumors and discussions about the possible curtailment of QE, the markets could at some point believe this, which provoked the growth of the dollar. Moreover, many members of the Fed's monetary committee (and even former FOMC members) have spoken out in recent weeks in favor of curtailing the quantitative stimulus program as soon as possible. Thus, we believe that the reason for the growth of the dollar lies in the expectations of the market. COT report.
During the last reporting week (September 7 - 13), the EUR/USD pair fell by 60 points. The latest COT report showed minimal changes in the mood of the "Non-commercial" group of traders, the most important group of traders. Professional traders closed 4 thousand contracts and the same number for selling. Thus, the net position has not changed, as well as the mood of the major players. But serious changes followed in the "Commercial" group, where traders immediately closed 27 thousand contracts for purchase and 36 thousand contracts for sale. These data are less important, but still, the difference is striking. Returning to professional traders, the total number of buy contracts they now have is 187.5 thousand, and sell contracts - 160 thousand. Thus, the "bullish" mood persists, but it has weakened significantly in recent months. Therefore, we can say that the euro/dollar pair is currently teetering on the edge of a precipice called a "new downward trend." In principle, we have already said that the critical point for maintaining the long-term upward trend, which began in March 2020, is the level of 1.1700. If the bears manage to overcome it after a 9-month ordeal, then the chances of further strengthening the US currency will increase sharply. Therefore, this issue may be resolved in the coming days. On the other hand, much will depend on the actions of the Fed not only at the next meeting but also in the near future. If the markets do not find evidence of readiness to curtail QE, then the US dollar will lose its trump card in the confrontation with the euro. This trading week, two macroeconomic reports can be considered important. The States published a report on inflation for August, which slowed to 5.3% y/y, and a report on retail sales, which increased by 0.7% m/m in August, much better than experts' forecasts. But we cannot say that these reports had at least some impact on the US dollar. At least, there were no special movements after their publication. On Thursday and Friday, the dollar grew almost non-stop, without waiting for statistics at all. Thus, these reports could have a certain impact on the mood of traders, but it is unlikely that they would have a strong one. Everything now comes down to the Fed meeting, after which it will be possible to draw long-term conclusions. Trading plan for the week of September 20-24: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the upward trend has not changed since the bulls failed to develop success and overcome the level of 1.1886. Currently, the quotes have fallen below the critical line and the Ichimoku cloud and are moving towards the level of 1.1700 on all pairs. Thus, the pair's sales are more relevant at this time, which could already be opened when the price was fixed below the critical line. If the bears manage to overcome the 17th level, it will be possible to stay in sales with the target of 1.1602. 2) As for the euro/dollar pair purchases, we still believe that the global upward trend can be resumed. But at the same time, there are no technical signals now. At a minimum, you need to wait for a new consolidation of quotes above the Kijun-sen line and only then consider the possibility of buying the pair. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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