Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- September 3, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.
- September 3, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- September 3, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.
- Ripple continuation pattern activated
- AUD/USD looks to trade higher
- EUR/USD. August Nonfarm Payrolls disappoints. Is the glass half empty?
- EUR/USD to face more breakouts after poor NFP?
- GBP/USD increased as expected
- EUR/USD: Euro steals attention
- Trading Signal for CRUDE OIL, #CL, for September 03 - 06, 2021: Sell bellow 70.31 (5/8)
- Bitcoin: Crypto bulls have 3-6 months before upside rally ends
- US indicators rising again
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 03 - 06, 2021: Sell bellow 1.1901 (3/8)
- US nonfarm payrolls: total failure, albeit with glimmer of hope
- EUR/USD Elliot Wave Analysis for September 3, 2021
- Trading Signal for GOLD on September 03 - 06, 2021: Buy above 1,816 (Symmetrical Triangle)
- EUR/USD: euro awaits Fed decision on QE tapering and Germany' September election
- BTC analysis for September 03,.2021 - Watch for the potential downside rotation
- Analysis of Gold for September 03,.2021 - Watch for the breakout of the balance
- EUR/USD analysis for September 03, 2021 - Breakout of the rising channel in the background
- Bitcoin competes with gold
- Market Update for September 03, 2021
- Bitcoin remains in bullish trend but is vulnerable to a pull back.
- USD may extend losses next week
- Short-term technical analysis on Gold for September 3, 2021.
| September 3, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 11:20 AM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement was to be expected towards 1.4025. On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. That's why, the pair remained trapped between the mentioned key-levels (1.3800 and 1.4025) until recent temporary bearish breakout occurred last week. Bearish breakout below 1.3800 enabled temporary bearish decline towards 1.3600 while the price level of 1.3520 was expected to be reached if sufficient bearish pressure was maintained. Unfortunately, this seemed to be a bearish trap. The recent bullish rejection witnessed around 1.3600 as well as the Current bullish breakout above 1.3800 will indicate this bullish movement to pursue at least towards 1.3880 and 1.4100. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 3, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 11:19 AM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 allowed the current short-term downtrend to be established. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1770 and 1.1700. So, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. The bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed. Bullish signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel. A bullish reversal pattern similar to double-bottom seems to be in progress. That's why, Bullish breakout above 1.1830 (pattern neckline) was needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 3, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 11:15 AM PDT
Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where a sideway consolidation range was established. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices for a short period of time before significant upside movement was presented into market. Intraday traders were advised to wait for candlestick closure above 1.1780 - 1.1840 for another ascending swing to be initiated. This has just happened a few days ago. Currently, the price zone around 1.1840 remains a prominent demand-zone to be watched for BUYING pressur and a possible BUY Entry if any bearish pullback occurs. Initial targets are expected to be projected towards 1.1910 and 1.1990. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ripple continuation pattern activated Posted: 03 Sep 2021 10:55 AM PDT Ripple is trading in the green after validating the upside breakout from a triangle pattern. It stands at 1.3021 below today's high of 1.3232. XRP/USD has moved sideways in the short term trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. Bitcoin's growth helped the altcoins to increase as well. The price of Ripple jumped above the 1.3 psychological level. It has moved up by 4.24% in the last 24 hours and by 13.81% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin stands in the bullish territory as well, so further growth could also lift the price of Ripple. XRP/USD More Gains To Come
Ripple has escaped from the triangle pattern making a valid breakout from this continuation pattern. Now it is located above 1.2958 former high confirming further growth. The current breakout through the weekly R1 (1.2795) indicates strong buyers. In the short term, we cannot exclude a temporary decline. XRP/USD could come back to test and retest the R1 before jumping higher. Technically, the 61.8% retracement level, 1.4 psychological level, and the R2 (1.4186) are seen as upside targets. ForecastThe current breakout through the R1 and above 1.2958 is seen as a buying signal. A bullish closure above 1.3232 today's high could activate more gains. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 10:51 AM PDT
AUD/USD resumed its upwards movement. It has managed to jump above 0.7418 former high which was seen as an upside obstacle. The pair maintains an upside bias as long as it stays above the uptrend line. In the short term, it could slip lower to test and retest the 0.7418 level before jumping higher. It could approach and reach 0.7500 psychological level if it continues to be traded above the uptrend line. Trading ConclusionThe current aggressive jump above 0.7418 level announced strong buyers. It could resume its growth without coming back to test and retest the broken level or the uptrend line. It has moved away from the uptrend line indicating upside pressure. 0.7500 and 0.7550 are seen as potential upside targets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. August Nonfarm Payrolls disappoints. Is the glass half empty? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 10:38 AM PDT The data on the US labor market released on Friday disappointed traders, although not all components of the data went into the "red zone". The nonfarm payrolls report simply ceased to be "exemplary," and this fact was enough for the dollar to weaken its positions throughout the market. The American currency was not saved either by wages (which increased both in annual and monthly terms), or unemployment, which fell to 5.2%, having updated the annual minimum. Market participants focused their attention on the headline indicator, which really disappointed, being three times lower than the forecast level. However, first things first.
The growth rate in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector has grown consistently over the four months since mid-spring. In April, the American economy "issued" 278,000 new jobs, 580,000 in May, 938,000 in June (the June indicator was revised upward from the previous value of 850 thousand), and just over one million in July (the July indicator was also revised upwards from the original value of 943,000). However, in August the indicator fell sharply: while the forecast of growth was up to 720,000, it increased only to 235,000. In the private sector of the economy, the indicator came out at almost the same level at 243,000 with the forecast of growth to 665,000. By the way, in this case, we can note the correlation with the report from the ADP agency, whose specialists announced an increase in the number of people employed in the private sector by 370,000 (with a growth forecast of 640,000). In other words, this part of the release turned out to be a frank failure. These weak results (relative to previous months and relative to preliminary forecasts) reflect the consequences of a new wave of coronavirus incidence in the United States. Now it has become obvious that the summer COVID outbreak has not passed without a trace - it has an extremely negative impact on the pace of recovery of the labor market. It is noteworthy that the unemployment rate came out in line with the forecasts, reaching 5.2%. This is the best result since April last year. But recall that this indicator is a lagging economic indicator, therefore, by and large, Friday's numbers reflected rather the July dynamics. Investors were also pleased with the salaries. Average hourly wages jumped 0.6% MoM last month and 4.3% YoY. In this case, we are dealing with multi-month records, thanks to which the inflationary spiral will unwind more and more. At least the inflationary expectations of investors will now rise in many ways. The indicator of the growth in the number of employed in the manufacturing sector of the economy also came out in the green zone. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator in August was supposed to reach the 25,000 mark (in July, the 50,000 growth was recorded). But this figure increased by 37,000 in August.
Strong wage indicators and a decline in the unemployment rate partially offset the negative from the weak growth in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. An especially important role in this aspect was played by wages, which allow counting on further inflation growth (let me remind you that the first signs of a slowdown in the CPI were recorded last month). And yet, despite the positive aspects of Friday's data, in general, nonfarm payrolls report were not in favor of the dollar. Quite good data on salaries kept the greenback from dumping across the entire market - in particular, in a pair with the European currency, the dollar kept within the 18th price level, although the buyers of EUR/USD clearly intended to enter the area of the 19th figure. Most likely, traders will make another attempt to storm the 1.1900 target next week. In other words, the nonfarm data will not pass without a trace for the American currency. Indeed, by and large, the Federal Reserve has de facto received good reasons for maintaining a wait-and-see position, at least in the context of the next meetings. Members of the American regulator may not be in a hurry to start curtailing QE, postponing this decision until November or even December (there will be no meeting of the Federal Reserve in October). Thus, Jerome Powell's indecisive rhetoric, the first signs of a slowdown in inflation, the controversial August nonfarm payrolls - all these factors will contribute to the pressure on the greenback in the coming days. A reversal of the pair is possible only following the results of the September meeting of the ECB (next Thursday, September 9). The European Central Bank could also neutralize the hawkish sentiment that now supports the single currency. But it's too early to talk about it. At the moment, there is every reason for the continued growth of the EUR/USD pair with the main target of 1.1950 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD to face more breakouts after poor NFP? Posted: 03 Sep 2021 08:52 AM PDT EUR/USD has fallen a little after reaching 1.1909 today's high. It's located at 1.1879 level as the Dollar Index has managed to recover after its strong drop. The current retreat could be only a temporary one. The EUR/USD pair could resume its growth anytime if the DXY resumes its sell-off. The greenback has taken a hit from the US Non-Farm Employment Change which was reported at 235K below 720K forecasts and far below 1053K in the previous reporting period. Also, the ISM Services PMI dropped below expectations, from 64.1 to 61.7 points. The specialists have expected only a drop to 61.9 points. EUR/USD could resume its growth even if the Unemployment Rate has come in line with expectations, while the Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.6% more compared to the 0.3% estimate. The pair has rallied today only because the DXY has dropped. The eurozone Retail Sales dropped by 2.3% versus 0.0% growth expected, the Final Services PMI dropped from 59.7 to 59.0, while the German Final Services PMI was reported at 60.8 far below 61.5 points. EUR/USD Small Retreat!
EUR/USD continues to stay above the weekly R2 (1.1874) after its failure to stabilize above the 1.1900 psychological level. It has failed the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) in its last attempt. In the short term, the pair could move sideways trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. I've told you in my previous analyses that EUR/USD could extend its upwards movement after breakout through the upper median line (UML) of a major descending pitchfork. Forecast!Jumping and stabilizing above the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml), making a new higher high could activate further growth with a potential target at 1.2000 psychological level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 08:50 AM PDT GBP/USD has advanced to as much as the 1.3874 level where it has found resistance. Now it is pressuring dynamic resistance. It remains to be seen whether the bulls are strong enough to push the price above this upside obstacle. The pair has increased only because the US Dollar Index has reached fresh new lows. GBP/USD has moved higher even though the UK Final Services PMI was reported lower at 55.0 points below the 55.5 estimate compared to 55.5 in the previous reporting period. GBP/USD was bullish before the US data dump. USD was weakened even more by the Non-Farm Payrolls which has reported only 235K jobs in August versus 720K expected. Moreover, the ISM Services PMI come in worse than expected as well. It was reported at 61.7 points below 61.9 expected. GBP/USD Challenges Dynamic Resistance
GBP/USD registered a valid breakout through weekly R1 (1.3822) and is now pressuring the inside sliding line (SL) which stands as dynamic resistance. I have mentioned in my previous analyses that the pair could resume its growth after jumping through the downtrend line. Technically, its failure to test and retest the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (LML) signaled strong buyers. A valid breakout through the sliding line (SL) could validate further growth. OutlookJumping, closing, and stabilizing above the sliding line (SL) and above the weekly S2 (1.3889) is seen as a long opportunity. The major upside target stands at the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: Euro steals attention Posted: 03 Sep 2021 08:42 AM PDT After Jerome Powell unleashed the hands of risky asset hunters with his speech in Jackson Hole, the ECB completely captured the attention of Forex traders. Its members (ECB) became the main newsmakers at the turn of summer and autumn, overshadowing the report on the US labor market for some time. The heads of the central banks of France, Austria, and the Netherlands spoke about the need to reduce the scale of monthly asset purchases under PEPP, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned about the risks of further acceleration of inflation, and Christine Lagarde said that the previous support for the economy is not required. Surgical, that is, point intervention, will be enough. The result is that the euro has closed positive in 9 trading days against the US dollar out of the last 10. The "hawks" of the ECB are back in town, and investors can expect a decrease in the Central Bank's activity in the debt market from the September 9 meeting. In 2020, it bought up the entire net issue of European bonds, in 2021, it is moving on the same schedule. This has to end sometime. Why not in 2022? The consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts suggests a decrease in monthly asset purchases from the current €80 billion to €50 billion in March. If so, not all PEPP resources will be used up. However, Christine Lagarde once noted that this is not necessary. Instead of an emergency asset purchase program during a pandemic, the ECB, according to Bloomberg economists, will increase the volume of APP, an older program, from €20 billion to €40 billion per month from April to October 2022. ECB's usual QE forecasts
Christine Lagarde will be faced with the daunting task of smoothing the signal of a cut in monthly PEPP purchases with dovish rhetoric. Otherwise, it risks getting a further rally in EUR/USD. The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar already looks too fast and painful for exporters, why add fuel to the fire? If Lagarde adopts the words of Jerome Powell about the absence of a temporary connection between the curtailment of QE and the increase in rates, this will be a serious blow to the bulls on the main currency pair. It should be noted that the president of the ECB previously had another weapon - comparing her own monetary policy with the Fed's policy. Alas, because of the disappointing statistics on the US labor market, the Fed may not rush to announce the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. Employment outside the agricultural sector in August, most likely due to the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19, increased by a modest 245,000, which reduces the likelihood of an important decision to start normalizing monetary policy at the September FOMC meeting. Date X shifts to October or even November, which could further weaken the US dollar. Technically, the closing of the week will be fundamentally important for EUR/USD. If it is above the upper limit of the fair value by 1.1885, traders will be able to focus on purchases in the direction of the target by 88.6% according to the Shark pattern. It is located near the 1.195 mark. On the contrary, a close below 1.1885 will increase the risks of a decline in quotes to 1.1845 and 1.18. EUR/USD, Daily chart
 |
| Trading Signal for CRUDE OIL, #CL, for September 03 - 06, 2021: Sell bellow 70.31 (5/8) Posted: 03 Sep 2021 07:40 AM PDT
The price of Crude Oil #CL is trading 70.12, around the psychological level of 70.00. Now this level has become strong resistance for crude oil. The bullish force is running out and a correction could occur in the next few hours towards the support the 200 EMA around 68.75. The price of crude oil remains at daily highs. If the upward force prevails, the price could continue its rise towards the 6/8 murray zone at 71.86. For this, it should consolidate above 70.31. Crude Oil is receiving support from the sharp decline in US crude inventories. However, this was overshadowed by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) to continue with the gradual increases in production. If this trend continues in the short term, Crude could reach the level of 74.00 dollars per barrel. Another factor that could propel a further rally of oil prices is Hurricane Ida, which affected oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. So, production facilities need some time to operate at full capacity again. According to the chart, as long as the oil price is above the SMA of 21 and the EMA of 200, today at 68.75 today, there will be a good opportunity to continue buying with targets at 71.88 and up to 74.00. Conversely, if crude falls below the 4/8 murray support and the 200 EMA, it could change the trend and a price drop towards the 67.19 and to the 65.62 support level. Our outlook will continue to be bullish as long as it is above the 200 EMA and above 68.75. We can buy around these levels. The eagle indicator is showing a downward correction signal. Therefore, we should expect a setback in the coming days. Support and Resistance Levels for September 03 - 06, 2021 Resistance (3) 72.15 Resistance (2) 70.96 Resistance (1) 70.31 ---------------------------- Support (1) 69.40 Support (2) 68.75 Support (3) 68.21 *********************************************************** Trading tip for Crude Oil for September 03 - 06, 2021 Sell below 70.31 (5/8) with take profit at 68.75 and stop loss above 70.75. Buy if the crude rebounds at 68.75 (4/8 and EMA 200) with take profit at 70.31 (5/8) and stop loss below 68.30. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin: Crypto bulls have 3-6 months before upside rally ends Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:49 AM PDT Bitcoin's attempt to take the level of $50,000 per coin has not yet been successful. However, the market has not yet closed, and the weekend is ahead - days when, according to observations, breakouts happen. Against this background, the previous forecast about the two scenarios does not lose relevance. Either BTC/USD will come out of the sideways upward, consolidating above the psychological level of $50,000, or it will go down in the sideways downward. In the first case, the nearest target will be the zone of 52,000.18 - 52,929.55, and after its passage, it will be possible to talk about growth to a historical maximum. But if BTC/USD turns around in the sideways 46,299,48 - 50,513,53 down, consolidation before the next impulse may be delayed. While we are waiting for clarification on this issue, let's see what influencers think about the future of Bitcoin and the bull market of cryptocurrencies. For example, Lark Davis, a long-term bitcoin investor, notes that the bullish euphoria is likely to end in a few months. But the next bearish stage in the market will be less severe. Davis believes the bitcoin bulls have three to six months left before the upside rally ends. He draws such conclusions based on previous observations and the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency markets. The investor notes that as markets become more mature and resilient to manipulation, cycles lengthen and returns become less and less impressive. Against this backdrop, bearish periods and phases of accumulation are also shrinking. As more and more money flows from traditional to digital, the next bearish phase will be different from the 2018 crypto winter. Meanwhile, Euro Pacific Capital CEO and gold aficionado Peter Schiff criticized Bitcoin for losing market share. It's worth noting that at the end of December 2020, Lunarcrush announced Schiff as the second-largest Bitcoin influencer. On his Twitter, Schiff wrote that the flagship cryptocurrency is losing dominance, as it has to compete for market share with almost 12,000 other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, Schiff believes that the supply of altcoins will ultimately surpass any current demand. In another tweet, the investor admitted that Bitcoin has been beating gold for the past 10 years. Not only gold, but bitcoin has surpassed all other traditional asset classes in the same period. But that doesn't prove that BTC is better than gold, stocks, real estate, or any other asset that it has outperformed in profitability. Bitcoin is really growing less now than ether, but it is unlikely that the second cryptocurrency will be able to outshine it in the near future. As for other altcoins, JP warned investors that their rally is now making the market more dangerous and foamy.
 |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:43 AM PDT
Despite the serious flooding in New York, trading on US exchanges did not stop and stock indicators showed gains on Thursday. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.37%, the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.28%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.14%. Experts attribute the US indicators gain to several factors. Firstly, the rise in oil prices provoked the quotations growth of energy sector companies. Secondly, the number of jobless claims in the USA fell to 340,000 against the expectations of analysts, who forecasted the indicator reading at 345,000. Thirdly, the American trade balance deficit decreased by 4.3% against the early summer level. Fourthly, investors expect publication of unemployment data for August. Preliminary data show that it dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. According to analysts, employment rate rose by 750,000. Among the components of Dow Jones, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (+2.96%), Chevron Corp. (+2.09%), Caterpillar Inc. (+1,84%) are the stock rising leaders. Visa Inc. Class A shares fell by 2.58%, American Express Co. stocks were down 1.45%. Among the components of the S&P 500, Quanta Services Inc. shares gained the most, rising by 12.06%. Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation stocks increased by 6.70% and Occidental Petroleum Corporation were up 5.98%. Autodesk Inc., Hormel Foods Corp. and Gap Inc. shares showed a heavy loss, dropping by 5.2%, 4.6% and 2.91%, respectively. Among NASDAQ components, AgileThought Inc. (+69.40%) shares, Sphere 3D Corp. (+41.78%) and Data Storage Cor.p (+29.59%) stocks surged. At the same time, Meten Edtechx Education Group Ltd, Unico American Corp. and Assembly Biosciences Inc. shares fell by 57.18%, 17.39% and 16.15%, respectively. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of stocks that showed gain (2,034) exceeded the number of stocks that went down (1,141). The situation is the same on NASDAQ, with 2,178 stocks rising in value and 1,314 falling. Quotations of some companies were at record highs. For instance, Quanta Services Inc. hit a record high of 114.04 and AgileThought Inc. went up 69.4% and hit a historical high of 23,530. Sphere 3D Corp. reached a three-year high of 9,400, up 41.78%. At the same time, some other companies' stocks showed a record fall in value: Hormel Foods Corp. shares were at the lowest level of 43.57 for the last year. Meten EdtechX Education Group Ltd stocks lost 57.18% and ended down to a historic low of 0.3937. Assembly Biosciences Inc. shares hit a low of 3,270, losing 16.15%. The volatility indicator rose by 1.86% to 16.41. Gold futures for December dropped by 0.22% and closed at $1,811.95 a troy ounce. WTI crude futures went up 1.65% and ended at $69.72 per barrel. Brent futures increased by 1.62% and closed at $72.75 per barrel. The following situation arises on the Forex market: the EUR/USD pair gained 0.31%, closing at 1.1874, the USD/JPY pair fell by 0.04% and ended down at 109.95. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 03 - 06, 2021: Sell bellow 1.1901 (3/8) Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:40 AM PDT
In the American pre-market, the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.1874. The chart is showing a bullish signal and EUR/USD is likely to continue its rise until the strong resistance of 3/8 of murray located at 1.1901. This level is the key where the price could face a strong barrier. The uptrend channel on the 4-hour chart is guiding the movement of the pair. Therefore, the top of this channel coincides with the level of 1.1901. This level will now be the next resistance to challenge. As long as EUR / USD is above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA, there is a probability that the pair will continue its rise in the short term to the psychological level of 1.20. The medium-term outlook for the Euro is on the negative side, as long as it is below the 200 SMA on daily charts. Today, any attempt to approach 1.20 will be a good opportunity to sell. Meanwhile, we can trade within the price range of 1.1901 and 1.1840. The lower border has now become strong support for the pair. Around this level, there will be a good opportunity to buy due to the lower line of the bullish channel and the 2/8 of murray. In a few hours, the US government employment report will be published. The market consensus is for an increase in non-farm payrolls of 750,000, which would imply a decrease compared to the previous month. If the actual data comes out negative for the US dollar, there could be a rally in the price of EUR / USD and it could climb towards resistance of 1.1901. On the contrary, if the data on the US labor market is positive for the dollar, a fall of ERU / USD could occur towards the 1.1840 support. There is the SMA of 21, which maintains the bullish outlook for the pair. At this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 1.1901. Support and Resistance Levels for September 03 - 06, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.1947 Resistance (2) 1.1930 Resistance (1) 1.1901 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.1874 Support (2) 1.1846 Support (3) 1.1819 *********************************************************** Trading tip for EUR/USD for September 03 - 06, 2021 Sell in case of a pullback at 1.1901 (3/8) with take profit at 1.1840 and stop loss above 1.1936. Buy if the pair rebounds at 1.1840 (2/8) with take profit at 1.1901 (3/8) and stop loss below 1.1805. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| US nonfarm payrolls: total failure, albeit with glimmer of hope Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:30 AM PDT
In the morning today, we discussed the chances that the data on the US employment could be downbeat. From my viewpoint, there were preconditions that the actual data would end up rather weak. In practice, the report was not just poor – it turned out to be a total failure. The US economy added a mere 235K jobs in August, much weaker than the expected 750K growth. Thus, the actual figure was three times as low as the projected growth. Nevertheless, the employment growth in the previous month was upgraded to 1,053 million from 943K in the flash estimate. However, the figure for August is still very low. Notably, there is a glimmer of hope for stock and currency markets. The US dollar tumbled across the board in response. In fact, the fall could have been steeper. Perhaps, this will happen until the trading day is over. By the moment of writing this article, EUR/USD has climbed 40 pips and GBP/USD also gained the same 40 pips. In other words, we cannot say that the crucial report on the US labor market triggered market turbulence. Still, everything can happen later today. I'm telling you about the immediate market response. Nevertheless, the market looks rather boring. When it comes to the US stock market, the key stock indices have been unaffected by the poor nonfarm payrolls. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones are still trading at their historic highs, looking ready to extend their winning streak. In the context of such developments, we can make a conclusion that the likelihood of tapering monetary stimulus in September is much less in light of the downbeat nonfarm payrolls. The odds are that Federal Reserve will decide to wait for a couple of months to have an opportunity to assess macroeconomic data for September. Besides, the US central bank wants to analyze inflation dynamics for the last few months. In case consumer inflation eases its acceleration, this will assure the Federal Reserve to refrain from scaling down the bond-buying program in the near future. Another scenario is that the regulator could announce in September that it would begin reducing the volume of bond-buying, for example, from December. The latest nonfarm payrolls do not exclude the possibility that the US Fed will not discuss QE program at the policy meeting in September. Of course, there are different options, but the likelihood of tapering QE in the near time is much lower now. Let's wait for the inflation data for August which is due on September 14. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD Elliot Wave Analysis for September 3, 2021 Posted: 03 Sep 2021 06:08 AM PDT EUR/USD, H1:
According to Elliott wave analysis, a global impulse is being built for the EUR/USD pair, in which the corrective wave 4 was completed. This correction took the form of a wave plane [A]-[B]-[C]. After it ended, the market turned around and began to move in an upward direction, which hints at a new bullish wave. Most likely, the formation of the final fifth of the global momentum has begun on the market. Judging by the initial part, an upward impulse is being built, in which the first two sub-waves (1) and (2) were completed, and now the development of the sub-wave (3) has begun. It is assumed that the price will soon reach the level of 1.1909, which was marked by the correction (4), and then rise to higher levels. Thus, in the current situation, one can consider opening long positions with a take profit at 1.1909. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for GOLD on September 03 - 06, 2021: Buy above 1,816 (Symmetrical Triangle) Posted: 03 Sep 2021 05:44 AM PDT
Gold is trading at 1,814, just above the SMA of 21 which has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. A break above 1,816 could push the price up to resistance of 1,833 and up to the 7/8 of murray located at 1,843. In a few hours, the US government employment report for August will be released. The US economy is expected to have created 750,000 jobs in August. If the data is negative for the US dollar, gold could spike in response to the publication until resistance of 1,843. On the contrary, if the data confirms a robust employment increase, or it is better than expected, a strong bearish movement could occur about gold. Only if it consolidates below 1,812, there is strong support of 6/8 of murray and the SMA of 21 with targets at the EMA of 200 around 1,795. Since the beginning of the week, gold has been consolidating inside the lower and upper borders between 1,800 and 1,816. Gold is likely to follow with its next downward movement. For this, it should trade below 1,795. There is the EMA of 200 that has become its dynamic support. If the gold price approaches the 1,795 level, tests this support, proves to be very strong, and fails to break it, there will be a good opportunity to buy at a technical bounce with targets at 1,812 and 1,833. On the contrary, to ensure its upward movement, gold must consolidate above 1,816, above the triangle pattern, and above the 6/8 support. Then, gold could rise to the level of 1,833. If the bullish force prevails, the price could rise to 1,843. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: euro awaits Fed decision on QE tapering and Germany' September election Posted: 03 Sep 2021 05:08 AM PDT
Key US stock indices closed yesterday's trading near record highs, while the greenback fell to its lowest level in almost a month. The EUR/USD pair finished the day with gains in its five consecutive days of growth. According to strategists at Saxo Bank, the general market behavior indicates increased risk appetite. At the same time, a weaker US dollar remains the chief point "which suggests positive risk sentiment for EM and pro-cyclical currencies, especially as US yields are lost in the desert sideways at the moment." On Friday, markets expect the data on US nonfarm payrolls. According to experts, "a miss is likely better for the market than any outsized payroll gains, as it keeps the Fed sitting on its hands and treasuries likely stuck in a rut as well." At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not confirm his decision to reduce $120 billion monthly bond purchases at the upcoming September meeting, thus leaving it at the mercy of the August NFP. However, the preliminary data turned out to be worse than expected and dealt a blow to the US dollar that has already been discouraged by the cautious comments by the Fed's Chair. First, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August was published which fell more than expected to 113.8 points. This confirmed a similar drop reported by the University of Michigan, which had already been published ahead of Jerome Powell's speech. Pessimistic sentiment means less consumption volumes and fewer jobs. The ADP report was also disappointing as it showed that private employment in the US grew by only 374K instead of estimated 640K. Another wake-up call was a drop in the employment index of the Manufacturing ISM to 49 points. On Wednesday, the US dollar fell in response to weak leading economic indicators and continued to slide on Thursday without any additional triggers. On Friday, USDX is trading slightly above the levels it touched earlier around 92.15 for the first time since August 5. According to a consensus forecast, the US economy added almost 750,000 jobs in August. At the same time, the estimates vary from 375,000 to 1 million. If the official data exceeds expectations, the US dollar will get a strong driver for growth. Upbeat data from the US labor market is seen as a factor that may prompt the Fed to cut monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, the numbers below the forecast will force the greenback to extend its decline. Here are the possible scenarios for EUR/USD after Friday's NFP report. 1. If the number of new jobs exceeds 750,000 The official report may not be as bad as the leading indicators signal, as ADP numbers correlate poorly with the NFP and the US manufacturing sector makes up only a small part of the economy. A better than expected result could lift the dollar and lower EUR/USD on expectations that the Fed may still cut back on bond purchases later this month. Experts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia think that if the US added 800,000 jobs last month that would be enough for the Fed to announce reduction of its QE program. Yet, the Fed had upwardly revised this threshold at its August meeting due to the current COVID-19 outbreak in the country. At the same time, the uncertainty around coronavirus prevents the Fed from announcing an imminent rollback of monetary stimulus which would offset any gains of the US dollar from a strong August employment report, analysts added. 2. If the number of new jobs rises by 600-700 thousand. On the whole, this would be in line with conservative preliminary estimates. If this result is accompanied by a relatively modest increase in wages, it would mean sustained economic growth without inflationary pressures, which would allow the Fed to leave everything as it is while the economy continues to grow. In this case, the US dollar will suffer even more and the rally in EUR/USD will continue. 3. If jobs data is below the forecast If the number of new jobs in August turns out to be less than 600,000, this could raise concerns about a significant slowdown in economic growth and mitigate the forthcoming cut in the volume of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on the greenback and support the EUR/USD pair. According to analysts at TD Securities, leading indicators point to a slowdown in US employment growth. Experts doubt that a rise of 400,000 jobs will make the Fed abandon the idea of starting the QE rollback this year. However, the Fed officials may delay the announcement about program suspension from November to December. In this scenario, the US dollar will continue to decline, and the EUR/USD pair may aim at 1.1909 and 1.1975. It should be noted that the rise in EUR/USD by more than 200 pips over the past two weeks was caused not only by the weakening of the US dollar but also by expectations that the ECB will soon have to cut its bond buying scheme. Suggestions that the ECB will scale back its emergency asset buying program at its meeting next Thursday could support the euro ahead of the event, ING said. "Assuming the US nonfarm payrolls report is not too strong today, we favor EUR/USD nudging up to resistance at 1.1900 - but that might prove a tough nut to crack," the bank said. Another question is whether the parliamentary elections in Germany will help the single European currency grow. The options market is pricing in volatility which is 30% higher than normal as September elections are approaching, specialists added. Nomura strategists have outlined three scenarios for the EUR/USD pair, depending on the results of September elections in Germany. 1. The euro will stay unchanged against the US dollar if the current polls are correct and the SPD wins by a small margin. At the same time, the key question for the markets will be whether the leader of Social Democrats, Olaf Scholz, is planning to form a government with the participation of the Green Party. 2. The single European currency will rise to $1.20 if both the SPD and the Greens surpass current polls by 2.5% to collectively gain 46% of the votes. 3. EUR/USD will depreciate to 1.1700 if the Germans choose the Conservative Party that would mean lower state spending and impede the EU reform. So far, the EUR/USD pair is about to close the day in positive territory for the second week in a row for the first time since May and, according to strategists at Societe Generale, may retest the 1.1910 mark. The return of EUR/USD to the middle of the three-month range near 1.1965 (1.1662-1.2265) is possible if the US dollar fails to rise after the publication of the US employment report. The pair entered the daily Ichimoku cloud and could go up to 1.1910 and then retest the 200-day moving average at 1.1980-1.2010. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTC analysis for September 03,.2021 - Watch for the potential downside rotation Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:41 AM PDT Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upside but I found rejection of the important pivot level at the price of $50,300. Trading recommendation: Due to the rejection of the major pivot resistance in the background, I see potential for the downside rotation. Watch for selling opportunities with the downside objectives at the price fo $48,480 and $46,810. Stochastic oscillator is showing bear divergence and potential for the downside rotation.... The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for September 03,.2021 - Watch for the breakout of the balance Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:30 AM PDT Technical analysis:
Gold is trading sideways at the price of $1,814. Watch for the breakout of the balance to confirm further direction. Trading recommendation: Due to the sideways regime, watch for breakout of support or resistance to confirm further direction. The breakout of the resistance at the price of $1,820 will potentially lead Gold towards $1,833 and $1,860 Downside breakout of support at $1,803 will potentially lead Gold towards $1,782 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD analysis for September 03, 2021 - Breakout of the rising channel in the background Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:22 AM PDT Technical analysis:
EUR/USD has been trading upside in last 24 hours but I see potential for the downside movement and reversion to the mean type of activity. Trading recommendation: Watch for selling opportunities due to the breakout of the rising channel and the sideways base. Downside targets are set at the price of 1,1855 and 1,1835. Stochastic oscillator is showing bear reading with no evidence for the reversal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:17 AM PDT
Bitcoin's price briefly reached the psychological level of $ 50,000 level twice, and investors are already setting their targets even higher.
Some analysts suggest that as soon as bitcoin is on the other side of $ 50,000, market leaders will set a threshold of $ 100,000. According to Anthony "Pump" Pompliano of Pomp Investments, Bitcoin's price will likely double and exceed 100 thousand dollars by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Dan Held, Director of Growth Marketing at Kraken, considers Bitcoin to be one of the bullish instruments, predicting that it will overtake the market capitalization of gold. Considering that currently the market capitalization of bitcoin is hovering at the level of 1 trillion US dollars, which is not so bad, and the market capitalization of gold is about 10.7 trillion US dollars, respectively, the cryptocurrency has something to strive for. Held claims that if this happens, one bitcoin will cost 475 thousand US dollars. Unfortunately, not everyone agrees with this. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, who is at the helm of Euro Pacific Capital, noted that Bitcoin's dominance in the broader cryptocurrency market is declining, which is what happened. At the beginning of the year, the dominance of bitcoin based on market capitalization was almost 70%, but now, it is about 42%. Schiff points to the thousands of cryptocurrencies that make up the market. This number has expanded with the emergence of such niches as decentralized finance or DeFi. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Market Update for September 03, 2021 Posted: 03 Sep 2021 04:08 AM PDT Watch for the breakout on the Gold The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin remains in bullish trend but is vulnerable to a pull back. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 03:19 AM PDT Bitcoin is trading once again around $49,000 price level. Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. The recent double bottom support at $46,000-$46,400 has been respected and not broken. We warned in previous post that bears need to break this support in order for a deeper pull back to start.
Black line - support Blue lines- bearish divergence Bitcoin could very soon make new highs towards $52,000. However the RSI provides already bearish divergence signals. A new higher high in price is expected, and we expect with increased interest to see if the RSI provides a new bearish divergence. If this is the case, the chances of a pull back will increase dramatically. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD may extend losses next week Posted: 03 Sep 2021 03:10 AM PDT
The US dollar has been declining all week before the publication of Nonfarm Payrolls. Ahead of the report, the US currency has stabilized. Traders have taken a wait-and-see approach. Is the US currency really getting cheaper solely because of the release of important US jobs data? There is certainly a grain of truth in it. Yet, the main reason is low demand. According to Bloomberg, demand for the greenback, judging by the basis swaps, is at a multi-year low. As long as the world is flooded with dollars, the US currency will weaken. So far, the situation has not changed. Only by the end of the year, some changes may occur. The regulator may decide to issue fewer Treasuries and announce the reduction of the quantitative easing program. If so, the US dollar may gain momentum. So far, it has not happened. Traders are looking for new clues about the probable timing of QE. Importantly, the nonfarm Payrolls report may provide such a hint. It is considered a barometer for the health of the US economy. If the reading turns out to be positive, the likelihood of asset purchases tapering will increase. The report is due today. How will it affect the market and the US dollar? The latter may either rise or resume a long-term downtrend. To start with, the Fed is quite cautious in its statements about the QE reduction in order not to sow panic in the market. There will be no rush. this is why investors may not receive any signal if the regulator does not wish it. The Fed policymakers are unlikely to give any clarity in the near future. Jerome Powell's last speech did not cause any turbulence in markets or an increase in the US dollar. In the outgoing week, riskier assets won favor with investors. As for NFP data, the US dollar may soar only if the figure turns out to be much stronger than expected. On average, the economy is projected to add 750,000 in August, while in July, the reading totaled 943,000. ADP data, ISM Manufacturing Employment results, and the weekly initial jobless claims report were not so positive. If the NFP report is weak, the US dollar will nosedive against its six major rivals because central banks of many countries are more hawkish due to inflationary risks. While the Fed is only hinting at a reduction in asset purchases, Europe plans to discuss the pace of the bond-buying program for the fourth quarter next week. If the ECB decides to taper the pace of asset purchases, the euro may gain momentum. The eurozone economy is steadily recovering, while inflation jumped by 3%. The US dollar index fell to new lows - 92.40 and then to 92.20. These levels act as support.in case of negative data, it may drop to the July lows of 91.80. However, in the long term, the outlook for the US dollar remains bullish. The situation may change only if the US currency falls below the 200-day SMA (91.30).
The EUR/USD pair is likely to rise albeit slowly. The main catalyst will be the weak NFP report as well as the ECB's decision to reduce asset purchases. On Friday, the support levels are located at 1.1845-1.1850. The bulls need to hold these levels. Otherwise, the pair may perform a corrective decline to 1.1810. If the euro continues to rally, the pair may soar to 1.1900 and 1.1970. Traders should take into account that the euro has been exhibiting strength against the US dollar for two weeks in a row. So, the risks of a rise in Profit Take orders on long positions have increased.
 |
| Short-term technical analysis on Gold for September 3, 2021. Posted: 03 Sep 2021 03:02 AM PDT Gold price is trading around $1,810. Over the last four days price is mostly moving sideways in a consolidation phase. Breaking above $1,820 would be a short-term bullish signal, while breaking below $1,805 would be a sign of weakness.
Black lines - trading range Gold price is inside the black trading range. Exiting the range will provide a new signal. So far price respects the upward sloping trend line and as long as this is the case, we will favor the bullish scenario for a move higher towards $1,850-60. Failure to hold above $1,800 will most probably result to a deeper pull back towards $1,770. Volatility is expected to rise soon so traders need to be very cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex analysis review. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Comments