Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- Major warning signal in TSLA stock price.
- Bitcoin could bounce back towards $49,000
- Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of September 13-17. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. The British economy
- Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of September 13-17. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. The ECB meeting
| Major warning signal in TSLA stock price. Posted: 11 Sep 2021 02:58 AM PDT TSLA stock price fell nearly 2.50% on Friday. Although technically trend remains bullish and there is no reversal confirmation, traders need to be cautious. Price reached once again the $760 price area and got rejected. This happened again back April and price then pushed lower towards $550.
Blue line- support Green lines - Fibonacci retracements TSLA stock price got rejected at the red rectangle resistance where we also find the major Fibonacci resistance of 61.8%. At this retracement level we usually see trend reversals? It is too soon to talk about a trend reversal but surely Friday's price action is one indication that a reversal is imminent. Confirmation of a trend reversal we will have once price breaks the blue upward sloping trend line at $700. The RSI has not given any bearish divergence signal, but each time price reaches close to the 70 level we see a reversal. Bulls need to be cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin could bounce back towards $49,000 Posted: 11 Sep 2021 02:50 AM PDT Bitcoin is trading around $45,000 price level near its weekly lows. Price reversed from $53,000 and came all the way down towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise from $29,000. Price so far respects the first Fibonacci support at the 38% level. As long as this is the case, we could see a strong bounce back towards $49,000-$50,000 next week.
Blue rectangle - support Green rectangle - bounce target Bitcoin is trading above the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. As long as price stays above it, I believe there are increased chances of seeing a bounce towards $49,000 at least. The formation of a lower high is more probable right now than the resumption of the downtrend. I believe we are going to see lower levels in Bitcoin. Confirmation for this scenario will come with the break of the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Next downside target is at $41,000. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 11 Sep 2021 02:46 AM PDT GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair fell by 30 points this week, although it was generally already trading more actively than before. Nevertheless, on the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes failed to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud. However, at the end of the week, the pair remained inside the cloud and held above the critical line. Thus, the technical patterns for the two main pairs remain almost identical. As in the euro case, for our expectations to be met and for the pair to start a new upward trend, the bulls must hold the pair above the Ichimoku cloud. Also, as in the euro, the pound/dollar could not fall below the target level for the second round of the global correction of 1.3600 for more than six months. Thus, the situation remains ambiguous. On the one hand, most technical and fundamental factors indicate a very likely weakening of the US currency. On the other hand, traders have not been able to start new powerful purchases for several months. Thus, we continue to count on the resumption of the upward trend. However, at the same time, we remind you that specific technical signals must confirm any fundamental hypothesis or forecast. At this time, we have only the first signs of the emergence of a new upward trend. It is also important to note that the price has bounced twice from the Fibonacci level of 23.6% this week. The grid of Fibonacci levels is built only on the last turn of the upward movement and not on the entire trend. Thus, even against the last round of growth, the price adjusted by only 38.2%. And the rebound from the level of 23.6% restrained further purchases. COT report.
During the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6), the GBP/USD pair gained 80 points. The most important group of "Non-commercial" traders continues to reduce their net position, and their mood is becoming more "bearish." These changes are visible on the indicators in the illustration above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (the "Non-commercial" group) has already gone below zero levels and continues to decline. The mood of the major players has already changed to "bearish" and is now only getting stronger. However, we cannot conclude that the upward trend is completed due to a weak correction against this trend (recall: only 23.6%). The weakness of the correction over the past six months does not allow us to conclude that a new downward trend has now begun to form, not just a correction. Thus, the major players continued to sell the pound, and the currency itself could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666 after three attempts. Therefore, we believe that the factor of injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the American economy by the Fed remains in the first place in terms of importance, which ensures the depreciation of the dollar over a long distance and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. During the reporting week, non-profit traders closed 5.5 thousand contracts for purchase and opened 2.5 thousand contracts for sale. But although the major players are "bearish," this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600. During the current week, several important reports were published in the UK and a speech by Andrew Bailey. The head of the Bank of England said that the minimum conditions for tightening monetary policy had been reached. However, he did not announce any changes. By and large, this means that in the near future, the BA and other central banks will consider the possibility of curtailing the quantitative stimulus program, which in Britain amounts to 895 billion pounds. Most likely, we will be talking about reducing volumes. But it is quite difficult to say when this will happen because the latest GDP report for July showed that the UK economy grew by only 0.1% compared to June and by 3.6% in three-month terms. The forecasts were much higher, so it makes sense to talk about a slowdown in the pace of recovery. And it is quite likely that this decline is associated with the "coronavirus" pandemic and its new "wave," which is now attacking the UK. However, there is a slowdown in both the US and the EU. Thus, from our point of view, it is still too early to talk about any tightening. Trading plan for the week of September 13-17: 1) The pound/dollar pair continues to be located above the critical line, so the trend is currently changing to an upward one. Of course, it is still too early to say this for sure since the Bollinger Bands are still directed downwards, and the price has not yet overcome the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, it will be possible to speak more confidently about a new hike to the north after overcoming the level of 1.3910 (or at least 1.3870). In this case, you can buy a pair with a target of 1.4126. 2) The bears tried to regain the initiative last week, but nothing came of it. From our point of view, sales will not be relevant in the near future, since the price failed to overcome the level of 1.3600 several times. Nevertheless, this is the foreign exchange market, and if the pair manages to return below the critical line, then sales can be considered again with the first target of 1.3600. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 11 Sep 2021 02:46 AM PDT EUR/USD - 24H.
The EUR/USD currency pair has lost 70 points during the current week. And taking into account the fact that four out of five trading days ended with a decline, and on the fifth day, the pair increased by 10 points. On average, the pair lost 20 points a day, and the total volatility in most cases did not exceed 40 points. Thus, the volatility of the euro/dollar pair remains ultra-low. It should also be noted that the bulls failed to overcome the Fibonacci level of 61.8%, which is also the previous local maximum. Thus, for the time being, further upward movement is in question. The bulls failed to build on the success they achieved earlier. The quotes have already left the Ichimoku cloud. However, they are still located above the critical line. However, there is no need to despair. It will be possible to talk about the resumption of the downward movement after the quotes break the Kijun-sen line. And while this has not happened, we remind you that most of the technical and fundamental factors still speak in favor of a new round of the fall of the US currency. Unfortunately, in the last few months, volatility does not count on almost any strong movement. Recall that the pair also failed to escape below the target level for the second round of the global downward correction against the upward trend of 1.1700. Thus, since the Fed has not yet announced the curtailment of the asset purchase program, we are still counting on a new fall in the US dollar. Although now, of course, a lot will depend on when the markets will start trading the pair more actively. Recall that the volatility of 60-80 points per day is considered normal for the pair. COT report. During the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6), the EUR/USD pair increased by 75 points. But the COT reports, which for several months in a row signaled a decrease in the net position of non-commercial traders, stopped selling the European currency right before level 0 (the first indicator). At this time, the number of open long and short positions in the "Non-commercial" group is almost the same, indicating this group's neutral mood. Formally, it remains "bullish" since a slightly larger number of purchase contracts are concentrated on the hands of large players. However, this advantage is small. Thus, the COT reports do not answer the most important questions right now. Namely: will the bears overcome the level of 1.1700 to try to form a downward trend? Are the bulls ready to start forming a new upward trend? Professional traders closed less than a thousand buy contracts during the reporting week and 16.5 thousand sell contracts. Thus, the net position immediately increased by 15 thousand, and the mood became a little more "bullish." However, do not forget about the Fed factor as well. Recall that if monetary injections into the American economy continue, this will lead to an increase in the money supply and natural inflation of the dollar. No matter how the players get rid of the European currency, if the Fed continues to print $ 120 billion a month, this will not lead to the strong growth of the dollar. We also remind that the stock market is currently growing intensively. It means that most of the money entered the economy from the Fed flows to the stock market. If investors stop buying shares, this may lead to an excess of money in free circulation, which will provoke a new fall in the dollar. The current trading week was important for the European currency to a greater extent than for the dollar. The ECB meeting and the publication of the GDP report are important events. However, the markets did not find anything interesting for themselves because the European economy grew in the second quarter not by 2.0%, as previously expected, but by 2.2% q/q. They also did not learn anything interesting from Christine Lagarde's speech after the ECB meeting. However, they could have reacted at least to the words about reducing the pace of asset purchases under the PEPP program. And nothing was interesting at all in the States this week. Therefore, the entire calculation was precisely on the European "foundation." But, as we can see, the desire to relax among market participants is much stronger than the desire to trade. Trading plan for the week of September 13-17: 1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the trend is changing to an upward one, despite the fall in the current week. The price has overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, so now it will tend to the upper border of the Ichimoku cloud. Unfortunately, the bulls failed to overcome the level of 1.1910, which is the previous local maximum, on the first attempt. However, we believe that this is only a temporary phenomenon. In the new week, we will expect a rebound from the critical line and the resumption of movement to the north. 2) The euro/dollar pair has consolidated above the critical line, so the continuation of the downward movement is postponed until better times. However, we have repeatedly said that we expect to complete the downward correction movement around the level of 1.1700. In any case, as long as the price is above the Kijun-sen line, it is not worth returning to sales. When fixing below 1.1700, the pair may try to fall to 1.1600. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD. Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced earlier. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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