Forex analysis review
Forex analysis review |
- GBPUSD potential reversal! Drop incoming!
- CADJPY facing bearish pressure
- Video market update for September 13,2021
- Technical analysis for Bitcoin
- EUR/USD. Fed hawks and inflationary petrels
- Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 13. US inflation should help the pound
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 13. ECB's Schnabel: inflation will start to decline in 2022
- Bitcoin: Bearish flag scare after last week's crash
- September 13, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.
- September 13, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- September 13, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.
- Trading Signal for BITCOIN for September 13 - 14, 2021: Symmetrical Triangle
- GBP/USD: Pound spelled out turbulence
- The stock market is on the verge of a spectacular collapse. How, when, and why?
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 13 - 14, 2021: Buy above 1.1770 - Sell below 1.1815 (EMA 200)
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 13, 2021
- Bitcoin and Ethereum: Seasonal sale month
- USDCHF challenges triangle resistance.
- EURUSD short-term analysis
- Asian stock markets show decline
- Short-term technical analysis on Gold for September 13, 2021.
- Bitcoin expected to bounce higher this week.
- Trading Signal for GBP/USD for September 13 - 14, 2021: Buy above 1.3801 (EMA 200)
- Trading idea for gold
- Oil prices soared to a weekly high
| GBPUSD potential reversal! Drop incoming! Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:07 PM PDT |
| CADJPY facing bearish pressure Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:04 PM PDT |
| Video market update for September 13,2021 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 05:13 PM PDT |
| Technical analysis for Bitcoin Posted: 13 Sep 2021 04:55 PM PDT Bitcoin
The bulls could not change or question the bearish nature of the last weekly candle. But in order to realize the current potential and gain new prospects, the bears now must break through the strong accumulation zone of supports of various time intervals 42758 - 39810 (daily cloud + weekly and monthly levels). Currently, the strength of the encountered supports, which are located directly below last week's minimum extremum (43127.98), can help maintain the slowdown that was outlined earlier. At the same time, bullish traders will seek to restore their positions. To do this, they need to break through the nearest and subsequent resistances 46620 - 46960 (weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan + daily Fibo Kijun), 48000 (daily Kijun), and 49150 (daily Fibo Kijun).
There is a struggle for key levels in the smaller time frames, which are currently combining their efforts in the area of 45302-635 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) and are the center of attraction for the consolidation movement of the last days (47315 - 43128). A reliable consolidation above will help strengthen the bullish mood, but for this, the bulls must break through the resistance levels of 46620-960 in the higher time frames. In turn, updating the lows (43128) can restore some bearish advantages, which will immediately face the next strong support zone 42758 - 39810. Based on this location of the leading pivot points, the preservation of uncertainty and consolidation in the near future has quite high chances. *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this cryptocurrency. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Fed hawks and inflationary petrels Posted: 13 Sep 2021 02:39 PM PDT The EUR/USD pair continues to slide down against the background of the general strengthening of the American currency. In a week and a half, the next September meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place, at which the central bank will determine the future prospects of monetary policy. On the eve of this event, all macroeconomic releases and comments of the Fed representatives are considered through the prism of possible decisions of the US central bank. It is noteworthy that almost all the recent publications and speeches of central bank officials play into the hands of dollar bulls. Hawkish expectations returned to the market, which were suppressed by contradictory Nonfarms. If tomorrow's inflation release is also released in the green zone, these expectations will strengthen again, providing significant support to the greenback. Today, the US currency strengthened its positions not only due to the inertia of Friday's trading. Let me remind you that on the last trading day of last week, the producer price index was published in the United States, which is an early signal of changes in inflationary trends. Recently, it has been showing positive dynamics (especially in annual terms), and in August it exceeded forecasts again - both in monthly and annual terms. Excluding food and energy prices, the index also came out in the green zone, confirming the strength of inflationary trends. Returning to the long-suffering August Nonfarm, we can say that not all components of the release disappointed investors. For example, traders were once again pleased with salaries. The average hourly wage in August jumped by 0.6% month-on-month and by 4.3% year-on-year. These are multi-month records, thanks to which the inflationary spiral will be unwound more and more. At least, investors' inflation expectations have increased significantly after this release.
According to some experts, inflation in the United States may have reached its peak values, as last month the CPI showed the first signs of its slowdown. But this does not mean that inflation indicators will show a downward trend. According to various estimates, significant price pressure will remain at least until the end of this year. Many experts also assume that inflation will remain at high values in the first half of 2022. It should be recalled here that the price index for basic personal consumption expenditures (the most tracked inflation indicator by Fed members) jumped to 3.6% in August – this is the strongest increase in the indicator over the past 30 years. All this suggests that tomorrow's inflation release will also be released at least at the level of forecasts. According to most experts, the overall consumer price index will grow to 0.4% in monthly terms (from the previous value of 0.5%), and to 5.3% in annual terms (5.4% in July). The core index should be released at the level of the previous month (0.3% m/m, 4.2% y/y). This disposition pushes the dollar up throughout the market, including in a pair with the euro. And yet, the direct "culprit of the triumph" of dollar bulls today was Patrick Harker, who voiced quite hawkish remarks about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. So, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said in an interview today that he supports the early curtailment of incentives. He recalled that, according to the forecasts of the Fed, by the end of the year, inflation in America will be at the level of four percent, after which it will begin to decline to the two percent mark. At the same time, Harker noted that he personally sees an increased risk that inflation may exceed these figures. Given the presence of such risks, he suggested starting the process of reducing QE as soon as possible, so that the central bank would have a "free hand" regarding further steps in the form of an interest rate increase. A similar idea was voiced by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester. On Friday, she said that the economic situation in the United States "has improved enough to allow the Fed to begin slowing down the pace of asset purchases."
Such hawkish messages on the eve of the September Fed meeting strengthened the greenback's position. That is why tomorrow's release is so important for dollar bulls: either the hawks will get another trump card in favor of early withdrawal of QE and a rate hike, or the doves will weigh down their position with a powerful argument in the form of a slowdown in US inflation. Given the background, we can assume that tomorrow's data on the growth of the consumer price index will provoke increased volatility, defining the vector of the dollar in the medium term. Thus, the EUR/USD pair retains the potential for its further decline. If US inflation "does not let down" the pair bears tomorrow, the downward trend will resume with renewed vigor. Today traders tested the 1.1790 support level (the middle Bollinger Bands line, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line), but could not consolidate below this target. If the dollar still strengthens its positions tomorrow, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish Parade of Lines signal, thereby opening the way to the main support level of 1.1650 - this is the price low of the year, coinciding with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 13. US inflation should help the pound Posted: 13 Sep 2021 10:09 AM PDT
The wave counting for the GBP/USD currency pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend segment are quite long, but the wave counting itself does not raise any questions. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, led to the exit of quotes from the reached highs, but wave c does not yet look fully completed. The deviation of quotes from the reached highs turned out to be weak and did not affect the current wave counting. Thus, I expect the resumption of the construction of this wave and the increase in the quotes of the instrument. A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indicate the readiness of the markets for new purchases, which is necessary for the pair at this time. The targets of wave c can be located between the peak of wave a and the level of 1.4239. But whatever it was, it still implies the continued growth of the British pound. I don't see any reasons to make any changes to the current wave pattern yet. The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair did not change on Friday compared to Thursday, and on Monday – compared to Friday. Even though the markets tried to trade actively, each time, a movement in one direction was replaced by a movement in the opposite direction. On Friday, important economic data were released in the UK: Industrial production for July increased in volumes by 3.8% YoY and 1.2% MoM. While July GDP grew by 0.1% MoM and 7.5% YoY. The first report turned out better than expected, while the second turned out worse. However, they did not have any impact on the mood of the markets, since, as I have already noted, the British pound exchange rate did not change either on Friday or on Monday. Due to the lack of a news background, the amplitude of the GBP/USD currency pair was quite weak on Monday. But now the markets need to try to hold the pair through the 23.6% Fibonacci level so that the wave count won't be broken. US inflation report is scheduled for Tuesday, which may show a decrease in the indicator. In the past times, when inflation was rising, the US dollar was also growing. If the expectations of the markets come true, then tomorrow we can expect a decline in the US currency, which is necessary for the current wave counting. The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time, I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The currency pair presumably completed the construction of an internal corrective wave c.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 13. ECB's Schnabel: inflation will start to decline in 2022 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 09:43 AM PDT
The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains the same. The pair still passes no more than 50 points per day, which does not allow making any changes. In the last week, we saw a slight decline in quotes, which was caused by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, the construction of a downward wave, which may be wave b as part of an upward trend section, is now presumably continuing. The first wave of this section does not yet give grounds to conclude that it will turn out to be impulsive. So far, everything looks as if we will see a new corrective trend, three-wave or five-wave, it does not matter. But with the correction status, the quotes of the instrument are unlikely to be able to continue rising above the 42nd figure, near which the construction of the previous upward trend section was completed. I am also not considering the option of complicating the downward trend section and do not expect a strong decline in the pair. The attempt to break through the level of 1.1805, which corresponds to 23.6% according to Fibonacci, was successful, but wave b may end just below it. The news background for the EUR/USD pair was practically absent on Monday. We can say that the pair is now moving exclusively under the influence of wave counting. If the current wave b ends in the coming days, then everything will look almost perfect. Another matter is that the currency pair continues to move only with the help of corrective structures, that is, we cannot count on a strong decline in quotes or a strong increase. Nevertheless, it is important for us that the wave counting is, first of all, clear and understandable, so that it can be used not just to trade, but also to earn money. There are no problems with this now. The only interesting event on Monday was the speech of ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. According to Schnabel, the inflation rate will significantly decrease in 2022, but this year it may continue to grow. Let me remind you that the latest inflation report showed an increase to 3.0%. By the end of the year, the consumer price index may grow to 4%. Schnabel warned the markets against a harsh interpretation of current inflation, saying that it should be treated with great caution. Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde made similar statements, stating that the increase in inflation is due to temporary factors that will sooner or later cease to affect the indicator. It remains only to say that the markets did not react to all these statements in any way. The EUR/USD currency pair first fell by 45 basis points today, and then increased by the same amount. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci level. So now I'm still waiting for the construction of an upward set of waves. Therefore, I still advise buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2027 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up". A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.1805, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci level, will indicate the readiness of the markets to build a wave c.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin: Bearish flag scare after last week's crash Posted: 13 Sep 2021 09:19 AM PDT Bitcoin did not recover and instead fell slightly over the weekend. The price is consolidating after it crashed last week, and this is starting to scare. If you look closely at the daily chart, you can clearly see the bearish flag. During the consolidation, the main cryptocurrency formed a canvas of a figure, and the price reached a strong support level of 44,807.24 (red dotted line). And this is where the complexity begins. On the one hand, the level 44,807.24 is strong - the price has never broken through it after it crossed into the range between the strong mirror support at 41,980.24 and the historical maximum. On the other hand, the formation of a bear flag is a signal of continued movement. And the price, according to the logic of technical analysis, can fall even lower by a distance approximately equal to the height of the figure handle. And if this scenario works out, BTC/USD can fall below the level of 41,980.24, to the area of $38,000 per coin. But we can assume that the strong mirror support level of 41,980. 24 will still not let the price go down. And the flag will not work out. And the main cryptocurrency will still somehow recover. For example, on-chain analyst Willy Woo noted that after bitcoin collapsed as legal tender in El Salvador, whales with over 1,000 BTC increased their supply. And the supply of bitcoin holders with less than 1,000 BTC but more than 10 BTC has been largely stable. However, Woo noted that the supply of public bitcoins had dropped. He explained that exchanges and ETFs are losing supply while corporations are seeing growth. On September 12, cryptanalyst Ali Martinez noticed that about 50,000 BTC had been bought for expensive addresses in four days, draining exchange wallets. By that time, the supply of bitcoins on exchanges had dropped from 2.49 million to 2.42 million. Martinez also confirmed that these factors have reduced the pressure from sellers. Financial expert Peter Schiff takes a more controversial point of view. He claims that the whales were actually waiting to cash out Bitcoin and receive dollars. He dismissed the notion that whales want to buy from smaller bitcoin holders. Summing up this alarming uncertainty, traders need to remember the sobering rule: you trade what you see, not what you think. Therefore, in my opinion, now it is worth focusing on the strength of the support level 44,807.24 (red dotted line). Anchoring the price of bitcoin above the upper border of the flag canvas (which is about $48,000 per coin) may give little hope that the bearish signal will not work. If this does not happen, we will monitor the development of the situation around the levels 44,807.24 (red dotted line) and 41,980.24 (strong mirror support).
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| September 13, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:36 AM PDT
Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where a sideway consolidation range was established. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. Temporary Upside pullback was expected towards 1.1990. However, re-closure below the price level of 1.1840 has initiated another downside movement towards 1.1780 which failed to hold prices for a short period of time before significant upside movement was presented into market. Intraday traders were advised to wait for candlestick closure above 1.1780 - 1.1840 for another ascending swing to be initiated. This has just happened a few days ago. Currently, the price zone around 1.1740 remains a prominent demand-zone to be watched for BUYING pressure and a possible BUY Entry. Initial targets are expected to be projected towards 1.1910 and 1.1990. S/L should be placed below at 1.1780. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 13, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:34 AM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 allowed the current short-term downtrend to be established. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1770 and 1.1700. So, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. The bullish pressure that originated around 1.1780 failed to push higher than the price level of 1.1900. That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.1700 was being executed. Bullish signs were expected around the current price levels of 1.1700-1.1730 as it corresponded to the backside of the broken channel. A bullish reversal pattern similar to double-bottom seems to be in progress. That's why, Bullish persistenc above 1.1830 (pattern neckline) is still needed to enhance the bullish side of the market and enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1900 and 1.1970. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| September 13, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:32 AM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement was to be expected towards 1.4025. On the other hand, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. That's why, the pair remained trapped between the mentioned key-levels (1.3800 and 1.4025) until recent temporary downside breakout occurred recently. reakout below 1.3800 enabled temporary bearish decline towards 1.3600 while the price level of 1.3520 was expected to be reached if sufficient bearish pressure was maintained. Unfortunately, this seemed to be a bearish trap. Immediate bullish rejection brought the pair back above 1.3800. The recent bullish rejection witnessed around 1.3600 as well as the anticipated bullish breakout above 1.3880 will indicate this bullish movement to pursue towards 1.4025 then 1.4100. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for BITCOIN for September 13 - 14, 2021: Symmetrical Triangle Posted: 13 Sep 2021 08:28 AM PDT
The price of Bitcoin is at 44,788, bouncing above the 6/8 murray level. In a 4-hour chart, it is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. The break above or below the triangle would define the next target for BTC. The fall of BTC from the high of 53,000 is affecting the other cryptocurrencies, which have accumulated falls of 20% to 30%. Given that BTC is under downward pressure, there is some fear among investors of a possible slump as low as the psychological level of 40,000. The scenario continues to be bearish for BTC, since in 4-hour charts it is below the SMA of 21 and below the EMA of 200, which makes the recovery of the cryptocurrency difficult. Therefore, a break above the symmetrical triangle and a consolidation above 7/8 murray around 46.875, will be a sign of market optimism and will be a good point to buy with targets at 50,000, with great caution. From a technical point of view, the BTC situation looks negative. As long as it remains below 47,000, there is strong selling pressure and it could fall to the psychological level of 40,625. The confirmation will give us with the bearish break below 6/8 of murray. A good key point to buy at low risk BTC will be the zone of 5/8 of murray around 40,625. If Bitcoin consolidates around this level, we can buy with targets at 43,750 and 46,875. The eagle indicator is reaching the oversold zone, which could favor the strategy of buying at the 40,625 level or above this zone, while waiting for the recovery of the BTC in the short term. Support and Resistance Levels for September 13 - 14, 2021 Resistance (3) 46,875 Resistance (2) 45,312 Resistance (1) 44,773 ---------------------------- Support (1) 43,750 Support (2) 42,968 Support (3) 42,187 *********************************************************** Trading tip for BTC for September 13 - 14, 2021 Buy above 46,875 (7/8), with take profit at 50,000, stop loss below 45,700. Sell below 43,750 (6/8), with take profit at 40,625, stop loss above 44,500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: Pound spelled out turbulence Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:42 AM PDT Working on Forex is essentially a betting game. The rate of a particular currency depends on which Central Bank will increase them faster and how quickly it will do it. Macro data make it possible to understand whether the criteria established by the regulator have been met, and the comments of officials clarify the position of the governing bodies. The fact that the Fed may raise the federal funds rate as early as 2022, and the ECB is unlikely to do so until 2024, contributes to the development of a downward trend in EUR/USD. With the pound, everything is more complicated. Speaking before parliament, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that he is in the camp of those members of the Monetary Policy Committee who believe that inflation has reached the 2% target on a sustainable basis, and reserve capacity in the economy is decreasing, that is, it is recovering to pre-existing levels. Thus, the criteria for raising the repo rate have been met, and the first act of monetary restriction will take place in 2022, which, at first glance, paints a bullish picture for the sterling. At the same time, the modest GDP growth in the UK by 0.1% MoM in July against the forecast of +0.5% indicates that the economy is losing steam. The delta strain outbreak has forced workers to isolate themselves and consumers to spend less. The situation risks further deteriorating if, despite the high proportion of the vaccinated population, COVID-19 continues to spread across Britain. The country's gross domestic product is currently 2.1% less than before the pandemic. It has not yet fully recovered, in contrast to its American counterpart, which did so in the second quarter. UK GDP dynamics
If the reserve capacity in the economy has not been completely eliminated, there is clearly no need to rush to raise the repo rate. Goldman Sachs believes that the Bank of England will decide on the first act of monetary restriction only in the third quarter of 2023 due to the fact that the economy is in more downturn than the BoE believes. And then, due to the expiration of the government's wage support program on September 30, the situation will become even worse. Such forecasts look worse than the expectations of the money market, which expects that the first increase in the repo rate will occur in May, and by the end of 2022 the indicator will be 28 bp higher than the current level, which does not exclude another rise at one of the BoE meetings. According to 56 Reuters experts, the first act of monetary restriction will take place in the fourth quarter of next year. This is a clear improvement in the estimate since, in the August survey, experts did not expect a rate hike earlier than 2023. Thus, the Bank of England is able to outpace both the ECB and the Fed. The economic calendar will help investors understand how it will act. The week of September 17 is expected to be very busy. Data on the labor market, inflation, and retail sales are expected to be published, which increases the likelihood of increased turbulence in the sterling. Technically, the combination of Double Top and Pin Bar reversal patterns on the GBP/USD daily chart indicates the seriousness of the bears' intentions. The consolidation of the quotes below 1.3825 (the bottom of the Pin bar) is a reason for selling the pound against the US dollar in the direction of 1.3765 and 1.372. GBP/USD, Daily chart
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| The stock market is on the verge of a spectacular collapse. How, when, and why? Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:34 AM PDT During the current year, the US stock market has confidently demonstrated record growth. However, many Wall Street experts warn that the situation of investors will become much more unstable in the near future. So, since the beginning of 2021, the S&P 500 stock index has already set more than 50 records. In this regard, analysts remind us of the increased probability of a rollback or a decrease in profitability.
A duet of investment euphoria and concern that inflation and supply instability will affect the profits of large companies can also contribute to the transition to sharp negative market dynamics. So, strategists from Bank of America shifted their target indicator of the S&P 500 at the end of the year to 4250 points, which is 4.7% lower than the level of 4458.58 points, which the index showed last Friday. At the same time, most investors in the US stock market explained their permanently bullish position by the minimum profitability indicators for alternative assets. Active support for the stock market in 2021 was provided, among other things, by the soft monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Traders were attracted by the high yield of securities of large corporations, in particular those that earned on the COVID-19 pandemic. But already in the September reports of analysts, hints of concern about other market segments began to appear. So, last week, experts from the American financial conglomerate Morgan Stanley reduced the share of US shares in the portfolio to a level "below the benchmark," emphasizing that they prefer securities of European and Japanese companies. By the way, signs of a decline in the US stock market can be seen when analyzing last week's last trading sessions. And if the negative dynamics continue in the market further, then the rollback at the end of September will be the first monthly rollback of the S&P 500 stock index since January of this year. During the coming week, the participants of the American stock market will evaluate the latest data on inflation in the States from the Ministry of Labor of the country and analyze the comments of representatives of central banks on the further decisions of the Fed. So, some experts expect the curtailment of the regulator's economic stimulus program as a possible risk for the stock market. It is important to note that market analysts have made similar cautionary statements before. Throughout 2021, many Wall Street experts expressed concern about the excess in the stock market, and its participants periodically feared a large-scale pullback. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:32 AM PDT
In the American pre-market, the EUR / USD pair is trading at the low of 1.1770. The price is approaching the reversal level of 61.8% Fibonacci that matches strong support since on August 25. EUR/USD is about to make a technical rebound around this level. The 61.8% Fibonacci level will be a good point to buy the EUR / USD pair because the bearish cycle could give a technical correction as the eagle indicator in 4-hour charts is approaching oversold levels. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the euro is below the SMA of 21 and below the EMA of 200. It is a signal of a bearish scenario. In the next few hours, there could be a rebound technical up to the 200 EMA. If the euro fails to consolidate above the 200 EMA, there could be a new bearish move that could take the price to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. If the downward pressure prevails, it could fall to 0/8 Murray located at 1,1718. The key data of the week will be known on Tuesday the 14th with the US inflation data, which will attract great attention. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve would cut its bond buying program this year. This in turn could further weaken the EUR / USD pair and it could fall to the 1.15 level in the medium term. Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for EUR / USD is on the downside, as long as it is trading below the strong resistance of 2/8 murray located at 1.1840. The decline is expected to continue in a sequence of new lows. A consolidation above 2/8 Murray could be bullish for the Euro as it suggests that the market retracement towards the 61.8% Fibonacci zone is validating. It will be a good time to buy with targets at 3/8 around 1.1901 and the price could easily go up to the psychological level of 1.20. Our outlook remains bearish. For now, we expect a technical bounce, then we can again sell around the 200 EMA or 2/8 murray, targeting 0/8 murray at 1.1718. Support and Resistance Levels for September 13 - 14, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.1840 Resistance (2) 1.1825 Resistance (1) 1.1810 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.1780 Support (2) 1.1760 Support (3) 1.1734 *********************************************************** Trading tip for EUR/USD for September 13 - 14, 2021 Buy above 1.1770 (Strong support), with take profit at 1.1805 and 1.1840 (2/8), stop loss below 1.1735. Sell if pullback 1.1815 (EMA 200), with take profit at 1.1760 and 1,1718, stop loss above 1.1840. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 13, 2021 Posted: 13 Sep 2021 07:07 AM PDT EUR/USD, H4:
The current structure of EUR/USD indicates that a long corrective wave 4 has been built on the market, which looks fully completed. This wave consists of subwaves [A]-[B]-[C] and is a wave plane. After the full completion of correction 4, we saw a rise in the currency pair in the initial part of a new bullish trend, i.e. in impulse 1. After the completion of wave 1, the market began to correct rather quickly in wave 2. Correction 2 will likely be completed in the area of the target level 1.172. At this level, the value of the entire correction 2 will amount to 76.4% of impulse wave 1. After the full completion of correction 2, the market may rise above the level of 1.1911. Today, at 13:30 UTC, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to give a speech. The head of the European Central Bank sets short-term interest rates and has a decisive influence on the euro exchange rate. Trading recommendations: It is possible to open short positions from the current level with the target at 1.172. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin and Ethereum: Seasonal sale month Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:55 AM PDT It is the second week of September, where many traders are frightened by such an intense downward movement. Alarmists predict the worst period for the cryptocurrency, and some media experts have again started talking about a possible downward trend that will reset the crypto market. What scared the crypto hamsters so much? On September 7, Bitcoin fell by as much as 18% (-$9500) in a few hours without any information hype. Following the first cryptocurrency, the entire remaining crypto market collapsed. Ethereum lost about 21%, and the remaining Altcoins lost 30%-50% of the value. Scary, but not the end. To begin with, from late July to early September, Bitcoin grew by 74% and Ethereum by 120%. The market was overbought by such a quick change in the quotes. The collapse that occurred on September 7 is nothing more than profit-taking, which led to a technical uncontrollable correction. But it is still too early for panic as the cryptocurrency market is still in an upward trend. The natural basis of the past: Looking up the statistics for 10 years, I saw a characteristic pattern associated with the first month of autumn. In 7 out of 10 cases, September is considered a bearish month, where there is a correction and mass profit-taking. Thus, what we observed on September 7 fits into the natural basis of the past. Following the statistics, the bearish period will last until early October, where new growth in the crypto market is possible.
While pseudo-experts predict the collapse of the crypto market, the investment director of the most powerful financial fund in the world, BlackRock, explained his decision to buy Bitcoin. Rick Rieder, in a comment on CNBC, called Bitcoin an alternative currency, the value of which depends on its distribution. Let me remind you that back in August, BlackRock disclosed positions for $382.96 million in mining firms listed on the Nasdaq Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain. Such corrections, as now, have almost always been regarded by institutional investors as an opportunity to enter the market at a discount. Therefore, you should not be surprised if in October or November you hear, for example, from MicroStrategy, that they bought more BTC on their balance. What is happening on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts? After a sharp decline, the Bitcoin exchange rate almost immediately recovered by half, after which a long-term amplitude appeared in the range of $44,000/$47,500. In fact, the quotes are still in the correction stage, scaring new traders. This situation will change if the price is kept above the value of $48,000. In this case, a new upward turn may occur, which will, first of all, restore the quotes relative to the correction of September 7. After that, it will be focused on updating the local maximum of the upward trend. If the bottom of the correction has not yet been found, then, probably, the sellers' finish will be the price area of $40,000/$41,500. Ethereum completely repeated the Bitcoin cycles, where the values of $3,150/$3,550 are used as the boundaries of the amplitude movement. In order for a new round of growth in the volume of long positions to arise, the quotes must hold above the value of $3,600, which will open the way towards the psychological level of $4,000. The maximum possible correction value considers the values of $2,500-$2,750.
The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at the level of 44 points, this is not an area of panic, but not a delight from the market. It is worth considering that during the collapse on September 7, the index fell from 79 points to 47 points, with a subsequent decline to 31 points. Now the index has recovered by 13 points and continues to grow.
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| USDCHF challenges triangle resistance. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:54 AM PDT In previous posts we mentioned that USDCHF was inside a triangle pattern mostly moving sideways between 0.9220 and 0.91. Until mid October there is still space inside the triangle for price to continue to move sideways.
Red lines - Fibonacci extensions USDCHF is now right on top of the upper triangle pattern. Breaking above 0.9220 and staying above it, will open the way for a move towards 0.9320 which is the first Fibonacci extension target. Traders need to be cautious at current levels as a rejection and pull back towards 0.91 are highly likely. In the event we have a rejection at 0.9220, our first support is at 0.9150. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:49 AM PDT EURUSD has made new lows after the bounce to 1.1850. Price broke below the key short-term support of 1.1815-1.18 and provided a new bearish signal. Price has reached our second target which was the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Green lines - Fibonacci retracement Black lines - bullish channel (broken) EURUSD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price has retraced 50% of the entire rise from 1.17. Price is showing reversal signals. Trend reversals are usually found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but we can not rule out one now. So far our plan for a lower high and new lows has played out nicely. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Asian stock markets show decline Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:49 AM PDT
Asia-Pacific stock indices show a decline during the trading session on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by 0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined by 2.2%. The Korean KOSPI fell by 0.5% and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 decreased by 0.01%. Several factors have contributed to the decline in indicators. Asian countries have to imply new restrictions or tighten existing ones because of the delta variant spread. Another factor is the 5.5% increase in Japan's producer prices, although experts had forecasted a higher increase of 5.6%. The increase is mainly influenced by the growth of the cost of raw materials. It affected the food industry the most, where prices rose by 2.9%, as well as the chemical industry (+12.2%) and metal industry (+13.1%). Among the biggest Japanese companies, Toyota Motor Corp. and Isuzu Motors Ltd. lost the most in price, dropping 2.2% and 3.3%, respectively. Toyota Motor Corp. is facing serious difficulties in the microchips supply chain for the production of cars. In this connection, the company plans to reduce the volume of car production. In September, the company will be able to produce 70 thousand cars less than planned, and in October, 330 thousand cars less than planned. Annual vehicle production, which is projected at 9.3 million units, has been adjusted to 9 million vehicles under the new conditions. In the Chinese markets, the securities of Internet companies continue to decline due to increased government regulation. New restrictions have been imposed on underage users of Internet platforms. Companies face severe penalties for violating the new regulations or attempting to circumvent them in any way. China also plans to introduce new forms of tougher government regulation, which, according to the government, should help eliminate "unfair" competition in the sector. This decision was made after one of the largest companies (Alibaba) was hit with a huge antitrust fine of $2.7 billion. This news had a downward impact on the value of securities of the largest Internet companies: Meituan shares fell by 7.3%, Alibaba Group Holding – by 6%, and Tencent Holdings Ltd. – by 4%. Despite the decline of the South Korean indicator, the share prices of major companies, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., increased by 1% and 0.5%, respectively. At the same time, Hyundai Motor Co.'s stock price declined by 1%. Along with the fall of the Australian index decreased the value of shares of the largest companies in the country: BHP Group by 0.1%, and Rio Tinto by 0.4%. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on Gold for September 13, 2021. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:45 AM PDT Gold price is trading at $1,790. For the last couple of sessions, Gold price has been trading between $1,800 and $1,781. So far the support at $1,780 has held and each time price tries to break below it, we see bulls pushing prices higher, respecting the support level.
Green rectangle- short-term support Gold price remains vulnerable to a move lower. If support at $1,780 fails to hold, then we expect Gold price to reach $1,750. Gold could bounce back to $1,800-$1,810 resistance area for a second test. Gold remains vulnerable to a bigger correction as long as price is below the major resistance around $1,833. Gold holding above $1,780 is important if bulls will have the base to start their next move higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin expected to bounce higher this week. Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:40 AM PDT Bitcoin is trading above $44,000 price level and the key short-term support area that we mentioned in our previous post. Bitcoin short-term price action and RSI price action point to a short-term bounce at least. Bitcoin has many chances of reaching $49,000 again, this week.
Red lines - bullish divergence Green rectangle - bounce target area Bitcoin is in a bearish short-term trend. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. The RSI is not following providing us with a bullish divergence signal. As long as price is above $43,000, there are increased hopes for a strong bounce towards $49,000. So far the 38% Fibonacci retracement has held. As long as this support area remains intact, price will be expected to move higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for GBP/USD for September 13 - 14, 2021: Buy above 1.3801 (EMA 200) Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:39 AM PDT
The 4-hour chart of the British pound shows that the pair is trading above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA. GBP/USD is rebounding, having found support at the 2/8 murray line around 1.3795 Last week the GBP / USD pair touched the 1.3886 resistance level forming a double-top pattern. Then, it fell to the 200 EMA about 90 points below this level, now getting ready for a new bullish sequence. As long as it remains above 1.38, the pair is expected to continue rising to 4/8 murray at 1.3916. Investors are alert to the US CPI figures to be released on Tuesday, September 14. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve would cut its bond purchase program this year. This, in turn, could erode the strength of the British pound so that GBP/USD fall to the 1.36 level in the short term. On the other hand, in the United Kingdom, the government is discussing tax hikes to ensure the budget for a new social care program. If the plans are put into practice, it could weaken the British pound in addition to the pressure exerted on the economic recovery by COVID-19. A bearish scenario could come into play if the GBP / USD pair trades below the 200 EMA and below 1.3795, with targets up to the support of 1.3755. This level will be a good point to buy because there is the uptrend channel line. A sharp break below the 4-hour bullish channel will indicate the start of a trend reversal and the double-top pattern signal could be validated and could fall to the 1.36 level, the August 19's low. On the contrary, we can continue buying the pair above 1.38, targeting resistance at 1.3885. If this level is broken, the next target for the pound will be 1.3916. A consolidation above 4/8 of murray could quickly push the price to the psychological level of 1.40. Our outlook will remain bearish as long as the pair remains below 1.3916. There is a pivot point. Besides, the eagle indicator supports our bearish outlook as it is in the overbought zone and there could be a decline in the GBP in the coming days. Support and Resistance Levels for September 13 - 14, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.3977 Resistance (2) 1.3916 Resistance (1) 1.3885 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.3793 Support (2) 1,3732 Support (3) 1,3671 *********************************************************** Trading tip for GBP/USD for September 13 - 14, 2021 Buy above 1.3801 (EMA 200), with take profit at 1.3885 and 1.3916 (4/8), stop loss below 1.3765. Sell below 1.3795 2/8 with take profit at 1.3755 and stop loss above 1.3835. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:29 AM PDT
Gold failed to stay above the psychological level - $ 1,800. Now it is approaching $ 1,781 for the fourth time, putting pressure around the level. In most cases, this scenario ends in a breakdown. So, it is better to take short positions instead of long ones.
In the event of a true breakdown, a wave of sales may provoke a further drop to $ 1675.
If that happens, gold could get a potential rebound of as much as 11,000 pips. After the breakdown of $1781, it is recommended to leave some of the positions up to $ 1675. This analysis is based on Price Action and Stop Hunting strategies. Good luck and have a nice day! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Oil prices soared to a weekly high Posted: 13 Sep 2021 06:27 AM PDT On Monday morning, the price of oil shows a steady increase against the background of a permanent recovery in the production of raw materials in the Gulf of Mexico.
Recall that at the end of August, Hurricane Ida came to the coast of the United States. By then, its destructive power had reached the fourth category out of five, and the natural phenomenon had become one of the strongest in history. As a result of the hurricane, 90% of the US oil production capacities, which provide about half of the black gold production in the American part of the Gulf of Mexico, was suspended. At the time of writing, the operation of the production facilities has still not been completely restored. This fact has become tangible support for the prices of black gold at the moment. Although there are objectively few reasons for oil to take off in the near future, its fall in the short term is also not expected. Thus, the price of Brent crude futures for November delivery increased by 1.14% and is $ 73.75 per barrel. Following the Friday trading session results, these contracts rose by 2.1% to $ 72.92 per barrel. The price of October WTI oil futures rose by 1.25% to $ 70.59 per barrel. At the close of trading on Friday, these contracts rose by 2.3% to $69.72 per barrel. During the past week, the price of Brent oil increased by 0.4%, and WTI - by 0.6%. Analysts of commodity markets note that the consequences of Hurricane Ida were a decrease in stocks in the United States by about 30 million barrels, and this figure may increase to 40 million barrels in the future. At the same time, experts are confident that in the short term, the oil will become a clear favorite among commodities in terms of cost growth in the 4th quarter. Last week, the US Energy Information Administration published a forecast that the price of Brent crude oil will remain at the current level until the end of this year and will balance near the $ 71 per barrel mark in the 4th quarter. According to Friday's data from the oil and gas service company Baker Hughes, the number of operating oil production units in the States increased by seven units last week - to 401. Today, the main attention of investors is focused on the possibility of revising the forecast of demand for black gold from OPEC and the International Energy Agency due to the increasing level of COVID-19 diseases. Experts suggest that the oil-producing coalition may revise its forecast of demand growth for next year downwards against the background of the spread of the coronavirus "delta." This strain threatens the rapid recovery of fuel production. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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