Forex analysis review

---

• Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on MS stock price.
• Another bullish hammer candlestick by TSLA stock price.
• Cardano remains in a bearish trend.
• Analysis of GBP/USD on December 11. Goldman Sachs does not believe in a rate hike by the Bank of England.
• Bull market is culminating in bitcoin's potential to hit new all-time high or decline below $30,000
• EUR/USD analysis on December 11. The week is over – the euro currency has refrained from a new decline.
• The Fed will continue to drag bitcoin to the bottom
• A return to 30,000 is more than likely
• Analysis of the trading week of December 6-10 for the GBP/USD pair. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. A perfect technical

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on MS stock price. Posted: 12 Dec 2021 02:21 AM PST At the end of November we posted our technical analysis on the MS stock, saying we expect a major reversal to start specially if price were to break below the support at $95 on a weekly basis. Although on a daily basis price fell as low as $93.86, the weekly close was higher than $95. Our view remains the same. We continue to consider MS stock price vulnerable to more downside. Today we use the Ichimoku cloud indicator in order to help us identify some critical price levels to watch out for. Price is above the weeklu Kumo. This means that weekly trend according to the Ichimoku indicator remains bullish. However price has broken below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and this is the first sign of weakness. Support by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at $94.91. A weekly close below this level coincides with our technical analysis conclusion, that a break below $95 would be a confirmation of the start of a reversal. As long as price holds above $94.91 on a weekly basis price could start its next leg higher to new higher highs. Failure to stay above it, will lead price towards the weekly Kumo.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Another bullish hammer candlestick by TSLA stock price. Posted: 12 Dec 2021 02:15 AM PST TSLA stock price is respecting on a daily basis the major Fibonacci support level at $975. Our first pull back target has been achieved and price has formed twice a bullish hammer candlestick pattern around these levels. Green lines - Fibonacci retracements At the beginning of November when price was around $1,170 our analysis warned bulls that price could start a pull back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Price was expected to find support around $1,000-$970. Price has formed bullish hammer candlesticks twice around this retracement level. The first time price bounced towards $1,070. Then price made a higher low and formed a second hammer on Friday. As long as price is above $948 on a daily basis, bulls have the potential to move higher towards $1,200. Resistance is at $1,070 and breaking above it will increase chances of price pushing to new all time highs. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Cardano remains in a bearish trend. Posted: 12 Dec 2021 02:09 AM PST Cardano remains in a bearish trend after it broke below $1.83 support. Price continues making lower lows and lower highs. Price has now reached $1.31 and is trading below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise from $0.99 to $3.08. Green line - broken support Red lines - Bearish channel The RSI in the Daily chart is at oversold levels. Price is trading near the lower channel boundary. A bounce higher towards $1.40-$1.50 is justified from current levels, however it is very early to talk about major trend reversals. Price has retraced most of the upward movement and this is not a good sign for longer-term bulls. So far there is no bullish divergence signal, implying the downtrend remains intact and we should expect more downside. Resistance by the bearish channel is at $1.90-$2, as long as price is below that level we remain bearish. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD on December 11. Goldman Sachs does not believe in a rate hike by the Bank of England. Posted: 11 Dec 2021 10:06 PM PST Wave pattern. For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking continues to look quite complicated, but at the same time quite convincing. If the current wave pattern is correct, then now the construction of the last wave in the composition of C. The decline in the quotes of the British dollar in recent days leads me to think that the wave e-C may take a longer form than I expected earlier, but at the same time, it is time for it to end. Unfortunately, the news background is not on the side of the pound sterling right now, and the markets may continue to increase demand for the dollar. The departure of quotes from the lows reached on Friday can be interpreted as the completion of the wave e-C, but the increase in the instrument is still too small to make such a loud conclusion. I am waiting for the EUR/USD instrument to build another downward wave, so the GBP/USD instrument can continue building an elongated wave e at this time. It would be ideal if both instruments completed the construction of their downward trend sections at the same time. The market has been expecting a rate hike from the Bank of England for some time, but it is no longer waiting. The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 50 basis points during Friday. At the moment, the instrument has made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3271 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci. To be more precise, on Friday evening, it had just reached this mark and had not yet had time to test it. Thus, a successful breakout attempt will assure me that the downward trend section is indeed completed. Unsuccessful – will lead to a new complication of the descending section. Next week, not only the ECB and the Fed will hold meetings. The Bank of England will not stand aside either. A month ago, it unexpectedly made it clear to the markets that it could tighten monetary policy in the coming months. Even in December. However, the events of recent weeks have forced analysts to revise their forecasts. A new wave of the epidemic continues to gain strength in the UK, and a wave of the omicron strain is beginning to gain momentum around the world. Precisely because of the uncertainty with the new strain, the Bank of England is likely to postpone the decision to raise the rate until February. Goldman Sachs experts think so. In February, the Bank of England may raise the rate by 15 basis points. Earlier, analysts at Barclays and JPMorgan made a similar conclusion. Thus, next week the British regulator may take a neutral and wait-and-see position. This Friday, reports on GDP and industrial production in the UK turned out to be weaker than market expectations, which may be an additional factor in postponing tightening to a later date. And if so, then the Briton loses this factor of the news background, which could support him. The only hope now is for wave marking. General conclusions The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument looks quite convincing now. The supposed wave e could have completed its construction, but there are still doubts about this. Thus, now I would advise you to wait for a successful attempt to break through the 1.3271 mark, which is equal to 61.8% by Fibonacci, and then gradually buy the instrument. Senior schedule. Starting from January 6, the construction of a downward trend section continues, which can turn out to be almost any size and any length. At this time, the proposed wave C may be nearing its completion (or completed), but there is no unambiguous confirmation of this yet. The entire downward section of the trend may lengthen more than once. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bull market is culminating in bitcoin's potential to hit new all-time high or decline below $30,000 Posted: 11 Dec 2021 10:27 AM PST After its recent plunge bitcoin has managed to stabilize and is holding steady at $48,000. Another positive aspect is that the market reacted calmly to the news on inflation growth, also indicating the stability of the current consolidation range. However, there are signals that the coin will hold below $50,000 for about a week, accumulating the necessary volumes for growth. Taking this fact into account, it is worth considering likely scenarios for price movement in a bull market or identifying likely targets for a correction if the current growth cycle ends. Bitcoin at crossroads The cryptocurrency's positions are quite weak even despite its successful consolidation above $48,000. Bitcoin's further upward movement is limited due to the lack of necessary volumes and investors' fear. The asset crossed the no-return line at $52,000, which made analysts reconsider the technical analysis. Well-known analyst PlanB, who predicted the coin to climb $98,000 in November and $100,000 at the end of 2021, expressed his view. The expert stated that the coin was at a crossroads and could both resume a bull rally and enter a full bull market. I support that view. However, I stick to the bullish scenario, according to which bitcoin is in the embryonic state of the fifth wave of growth, and the current correction was caused by a complicated structure of the 4th wave in a five-wave structure. At the same time, I do not exclude the possibility that the price could go down and a bear market starts. Positive scenario In a positive scenario, bitcoin has not hit its high in the current growth cycle yet. It indicates that at least one more wave of growth is expected, which will occur at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. I also back this idea, and I believe that the price of the cryptocurrency still retains the potential to move towards $75,000-$80,000. Considering that in the next week and a half the asset will try to recover above $62,000, I assume that BTC will mostly rise in early January. Negative scenario In a negative scenario, bitcoin heads into a full bear market, which historically comes with a correction up to 80% of ATH. This is an extremely negative scenario in which the crypto's downside potential is estimated to be around $14,000. The PlanB analyst believes that a sharp drop in quotations is unlikely as the asset has not hit its high in the current cycle yet. Even with an immediate correction, the market would most likely not allow BTC to fall below $20,000, the high of 2017. Considering $69,000 as the absolute high of the current price movement period, a correction to the $25,000-$30,000 range is possible. However, it is more likely to be around the previous local low at $28,700. Current situation As of 2:00 pm, bitcoin is moving in a narrow downward channel of $46,000-$51,200, which could be broken in the near future. This is indicated by the tightening and formation of a triangle pattern with a high chance of being broken upward. Technical indicators of the cryptocurrency confirm this fact: the stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish cross and is starting an upward movement in the bullish zone. It indicates the emergence of upward momentum, and the growth of the relative strength index to the 50 mark, refers to the activity of bulls and the start of the accumulation period with a parallel exit from the channel. In case of a successful break the price has good chances to go towards the Fibo level of 0.236 and to consolidate above the psychological mark of $50,000. With such a scenario the range of $50,000-$60,000 becomes the key one for the third week of December, indicating the movement to the new highs before 2022. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis on December 11. The week is over – the euro currency has refrained from a new decline. Posted: 11 Dec 2021 09:19 AM PST Wave pattern. The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to remain integral and does not require any changes. At this time, the construction of the proposed wave C is continuing, which is likely to take a five-wave form. Presumably, the construction of an upward wave d-C. And, if the current wave marking is correct, the internal wave e-C is being built now, and a successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level indicates the readiness of the markets for new sales of the instrument. Thus, the decline of the instrument may continue next week with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1152, which is equivalent to 127.2% by Fibonacci, where the entire trend section can complete its construction. I also draw attention to the fact that wave C takes a corrective form. And the entire downward section of the trend, which originates in January 2021, may take not a three-wave, but a five-wave form A-B-C-D-E. However, it will be possible to talk about this when at least wave C completes its construction. Inflation in the US rose to a record 6.8%. The news background for the EUR/USD instrument was strong on Friday. And all this strength was only in one report – inflation in the United States. In the morning, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech in the European Union, but, as often happens, Lagarde did not talk about the economy or monetary policy. Or the markets have not received any fundamentally new information. In general, there was no reaction to her speech. Thus, since Thursday, the markets have fully focused their attention on the report on American inflation, and when it came out on Friday, they seemed confused. The consumer price index rose to 6.8% y/y in November. And this value fully corresponded to market expectations. And this factor seems to have restrained the markets from new purchases of the US currency. Previously, when inflation either exceeded the forecast or simply grew, the dollar often rose. However, on Friday, on the contrary, it decreased. The instrument increased by 25 basis points at the end of the day and at this time it is not entirely clear whether wave d is completed? Under certain circumstances, this wave may take on a more extended form. However, at this time it also looks quite complete. The US currency missed a great opportunity on Friday to continue the increase, which would fully correspond to the current wave markup. However, the ECB and the Fed will meet next week, so it is almost impossible to predict where the instrument will be by its end. One thing is for sure – we are in for a very interesting week. General conclusions. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave C can be completed. However, the internal wave structure of this wave inclines me more and more to the opinion that another descending wave e will be built. Thus, I advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.1152 mark, for each MACD signal "down". Senior schedule. The wave marking of the higher scale looks quite convincing. The decline in quotes continues and now the downward section of the trend, which originates on May 25, takes the form of a three-wave correction structure A-B-C. Thus, the decline may continue for at least a few more weeks until wave C is fully completed (it should take a five-wave form in this case). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed will continue to drag bitcoin to the bottom Posted: 11 Dec 2021 09:19 AM PST Over the past year, we have regularly talked about the fact that the growth of bitcoin, like many stocks and other assets, is largely accidental. If there had been no pandemic, if there had not been trillions of dollars printed by central banks and created in their accounts, the markets would not have inflated like soap bubbles. Thus, bitcoin grew primarily not on increased demand with unchanged supply, but on the increased money supply, which had to be put somewhere. Formally, the demand for bitcoin (and many other assets) was growing. Therefore, its course also grew. But they did not grow based on fundamental factors. Not based on the fact that Bitcoin is getting better. Not on the basis that it displaces fiat money and becomes closer to the people. No, it is also an investment tool and, according to various analytical agencies, more than 80% of coins are already concentrated in the hands of large and institutional investors. Thus, when the Fed stops its QE program, the growth of bitcoin will have to at least stop, because the cash flow to the cryptocurrency market will stop. Accordingly, demand will stop growing. Perhaps, by the way, in this case, mass sales will not follow. First, because there will be no less money in the economy, only the growth of the money supply will stop. Second, because inflation should decrease first, and only then investors can think about transferring their capital from risky bitcoin to quieter and less profitable assets. After all, with inflation of almost 7%, hardly anyone is eager to invest in US Treasury bonds with their yield of 1.25-1.5%. Nevertheless, the "Fed factor", from our point of view, will stall the growth of the main cryptocurrency. Robert Kiyosaki: markets may collapse due to "fake inflation". A similar opinion is shared by the author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki. He believes that soon the value of precious metals, real estate, and cryptocurrencies may collapse down. This will happen because of the "fake inflation", which is managed by Jerome Powell and Joe Biden. "Collapse and depression are coming. It's time to get richer after the collapse of fake inflation," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter, who in the last few months has been calling for buying gold, silver, and bitcoin after the collapse. We would like to clarify right away that Kiyosaki had previously predicted a crash in October, which, as we see, did not happen. Thus, we recall that any forecasts should be treated very carefully. Technical confirmation of any fundamental hypothesis or any assumption is always required. A very important event happened in the 24-hour timeframe. The quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the ascending trend line, so the "bullish" trend is broken on the long-term TF. Consequently, the fall may continue. We have already outlined the goals in the previous article, they are also clearly visible in the illustration above. It should be noted that the price is also now below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Therefore, the technical picture says an unambiguous "down" BTC. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A return to 30,000 is more than likely Posted: 11 Dec 2021 09:19 AM PST Bitcoin ends the week near the $48,000 level. Bitcoin ends the week where it should have done. Of course, making forecasts for bitcoin is always a thankless task, since this cryptocurrency is too volatile. Nevertheless, the situation on the market now is such that there are more reasons for a new fall in "digital gold" than there are reasons for growth. Let's look at it in more detail. First, it should be noted right away that the cryptocurrency has not been able to significantly update its annual highs. Second, the cryptocurrency has not been able to reach $ 100,000 per coin and even up to $ 75,000 in 2021, as predicted by the absolute majority of experts. Third, the Fed has begun to curtail the quantitative stimulus program, so the "bubble" in the cryptocurrency market will stop inflating. Fourth, the bankruptcy of Evergrande can have a very negative impact on risky assets and provoke a wave of bankruptcies and falling markets. Of course, the bitcoin exchange rate largely depends on the mood of market participants and their belief in its growth. If tomorrow the majority of market participants decide that bitcoin has the potential for further growth and continues to buy it, this will provoke a new rise in the price of this cryptocurrency. And the market's decision may be completely unrelated to the fundamental background: bitcoin grew far not only in those times when there were reasons for this. However, if we still take into account the fundamental background and make forecasts based on it, then most factors indicate that the decline will continue. Recall that we predicted bitcoin going below $30,000 back in the summer. It was a surprise for us to see an increase to annual highs, as there were no good reasons for this. An investment tool, not a replacement for fiat money. However, it should be remembered that bitcoin has been and remains an investment tool, not a means of payment. If we were talking about a currency, then its fall by 80-90% would not be possible, since it cannot happen that suddenly everyone does not need this currency. But in the case of bitcoin, this is possible, because if investors feel that the "bullish" trend is over, then sales will follow. Of course, there are also institutional and large investors who can afford to keep bitcoin on their balance sheet for years or decades. However, in this case, it is difficult to imagine what will happen to bitcoin at all. Its issue is limited and if 80-90% of coins will just lie on the wallets of billionaires, then the cryptocurrency will simply be abandoned since it will be constantly in short supply. In general, it is still very difficult to classify "bitcoin". It seems to have been created to be a substitute for fiat money but acts as a risky investment tool and an inflation hedging tool. The trend on the 4-hour timeframe is downward and now there is a downward trend line that supports the further fall of the "bitcoin". The cryptocurrency is located below the Ichimoku cloud, so even at the current TF, there are no prerequisites for the start of growth yet. The nearest target levels are $46,600, $43852, and $40,746. It will be possible to count on new growth of the "bitcoin" only if its quotes are fixed above the trend line. From our point of view, a new downward trend is emerging now. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the trading week of December 6-10 for the GBP/USD pair. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. A perfect technical Posted: 11 Dec 2021 06:04 AM PST Analysis of GBP/USD 24-hour TF. The GBP/USD currency pair has worked out the 1.3162 level during the current week, which is an important 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, a rebound from this level was very likely in any case. And it happened. Now the pair will try to show a more or less strong correction. However, both pairs have obvious problems with the correction. Both are adjusted very reluctantly and very strained. Therefore, the pound/dollar pair now has chances to grow towards the critical Kijun-sen line, but at the same time, if the downward movement resumes on Monday, we will not be surprised at all. On the one hand, the pound, like the euro, is in decline for most of 2021. And this fall can still be interpreted as a correction against the global upward trend. Actually, at the moment, the pair has managed to adjust by only 38.2%. However, the fundamental background may continue to force traders to sell the pound and buy the dollar. Recall that in recent weeks, extremely unpleasant reports and news have been received from the UK. First the "fuel" crisis, then the "logistics" crisis, then the conflict over the "Northern Ireland protocol" with the European Union, then the conflicts with France on the "fish" issue and illegal migration. To top it all off, Boris Johnson got into a corruption scandal and a Christmas party scandal last year. Thus, all these factors do not contribute to the growth of the British currency. In addition, the pressure on the pair continues to be exerted by the fact that the Fed is ready to continue to wind down the QE program, and immediately after its completion – to start raising the key rate. The Bank of England, which showed in November that it could also raise the rate and start curtailing QE, may abandon these plans in December due to a new strong "wave" of the pandemic in the UK. Analysis of the COT report. During the last reporting week, the mood of professional traders became a little less "bearish". Professional traders closed 3.6 thousand contracts for sale and 2.1 thousand contracts for purchase during the week. Thus, the net position for the "Non-commercial" group of traders increased by 1.5 thousand contracts. This is a very small change even for the British pound. In general, the mood of non-commercial traders continues to be "bearish", and quite strong. We draw the attention of traders to how low the green line of the first indicator is located in the illustration above, which reflects the net position of the "Non-commercial" group. Thus, unlike the European currency, the fall of the pound sterling in recent weeks looks just logical: major players sell off the currency, and it falls. A further fall in the British currency is also now quite likely, but at the same time, we draw the attention of traders to the fact that the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved quite far from each other. This may indicate that the downward trend is drying up. Thus, we get a situation in which the euro currency is not moving down quite logically, and the pound sterling may complete its movement in the near future. Thus, for both major pairs, we recommend waiting for the downward trend to end, but do not start buying until specific buy signals are formed. Analysis of fundamental events. There is an extremely small amount of important news and events in the UK this week. Only on Friday, a report on GDP was published, which turned out to be significantly weaker than forecasts, as well as a report on industrial production, which also fell short of forecasts. However, despite these disastrous statistics, at the end of the day, the pound rose in price, although in the first half of Friday it was still declining. However, the report on American inflation quite unexpectedly provoked a drop in the dollar. It seems that the markets no longer consider the growth of inflation in the States as a factor in accelerating the pace of curtailing the QE program or faster rate hikes. Or maybe the downtrend is just nearing its end since the growth factors of the dollar have already been played out several times. Anyway, so far we are talking only about a correction, which may later turn into an upward trend. Trading plan for the week of December 13-17: 1) The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend. Therefore, purchases are still not relevant now. We need to wait for the pair to consolidate above the critical line, or even better - above the Ichimoku cloud. We still assume that the pair may go up 400-500 points in the coming month. But a lot next week will depend on the outcome of the meeting of the Fed and the Bank of England. The fundamental background will be very strong, which we will talk about in the following articles, and the British pound will count on support from the Bank of England. 2) Bears continue to hold the pair below the critical line. The targets for further movement to the South are now the support levels of 1.3094 and 1.2891. However, at least a small upward correction should take place first. If the pair's quotes bounce off the critical line, this may trigger a resumption of the downtrend with the specified goals. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance /support), Fibonacci levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them. Ichimoku indicators(standard settings), Bollinger Bands(standard settings), MACD(5, 34, 5). Indicator 1 on the COT charts - the net position size of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts - the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex analysis review. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States