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Evergrande Fights off Default Yet Again After Making Overdue Coupon Payments

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 03:48 PM PST



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Evergrande, China, Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report – Talking Points

  • Evergrande makes overdue coupon payments for offshore bonds, staves off default
  • Fed highlights Evergrande spillover potential as a significant risk
  • High-yield dollar bonds issued by Chinese corporations hits yield of 24%

Evergrande appears set to survive another round of default fears, as the distressed property giant managed to make overdue payments to holders of offshore dollar bonds. Market participants were no doubt following closely to see if the $148.1 million of outstanding payments would be made before the end of the "grace period" on Wednesday. The bonds in focus are a 9.5% due in 2022, 9.5% 10% bonds due in 2023, and a 10.5% bond due in 2024.

This scare is not the first time Evergrande has missed payments and used up most of the afforded grace period, with a similar payment being made in October. Despite the short-term ease of default fears, trouble remains for the company with over $300 billion in liabilities still outstanding. Evergrande isn't alone in its struggles, as other developers in China struggle with similar issues after years of expanding via leverage. Currently, the yield on high-yield dollar bonds issued by Chinese companies stands at a whopping 24%.

Evergrande Group Weekly Chart

Evergrande Fights off Default Yet Again After Making Overdue Coupon Payments

Chart created with TradingView

Perhaps even more worrying was the commentary from the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual financial stability report. In the report, the Federal Reserve highlighted the risk that weakness in China's financial markets could spill into U.S. markets. Specifically, the report stated that "stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States." Despite these risks, U.S. equity indices sit perched just below all-time highs as corporate earnings continue to buoy sentiment.

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern

To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter




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Forex – Data Tab & Notes Tab

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 03:06 PM PST




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Track ‘n Trade LIVE Forex overview of the Data Tab and Notes Tab within the software. See and export the data, add indicator data and use the software notes tab as a trading journal.

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3 Key Tips to Becoming A Successful Trader

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 02:47 PM PST



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Whether you are an experienced or first-time trader, there are certain patterns to follow that can separate you from being a profitable trader or one that loses money.


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EURUSD TRADING FOREX FORMATION #Shorts

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 02:03 PM PST




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Return to Normalcy Harkens Shift in Retail Trading Era

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 01:45 PM PST



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It Was Beach Season

In mid-June, Draftkings CEO Jason Robins may have surprised some viewers with his frank commentary about the sports gambling industry during an interview on CNBC. Draftking's biggest competitor over the coming months isn't Fanduel or Penn National, it's "going to the beach this summer."

That may seem like a pithy comment, but it's not one to be taken lightly because it was a real risk. And while beach season may now be over, bringing speculators back to gambling venues for the fall and football season, the sentiment underscores a risk for financial markets too.

When the coronavirus pandemic brought the sports industry to its knees in spring 2020 – an industry in America that making $1.5 billion in revenue annually pre-pandemic – it created a wave of liquidity and speculative appetite that needed an outlet. Coupled with the fiscal relief efforts in the form of paycheck programs for businesses and individuals, the American economy was flush with excess capital.

Naturally, shuttered professional American sports leagues demanded a new outlet for speculative appetite, and sure enough surveys show that among individuals who received unemployment benefits during the pandemic, 20% of those funds were recirculated back into American financial markets.

Where's the Money Going?

The coronavirus pandemic clearly brought in a wave of new retail traders into the financial markets. The surge in account openings in 2020 has continued into 2021: US brokers like Robinhood, TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, and Interactive Brokers added more than 2 million users in each of the first and second quarters of 2021.

In fact, Robinhood added more than 1 million users in January 2021 alone thanks to the surge in meme stocks like video game retailer GameStop (Ticker: $GME) and movie theater chain AMC (Ticker: $AMC).

Amid the surge in retail trader interest, something else was happening in recent months: American professional sports leagues were beginning to open to the public once more. And with the return of live professional sports this fall, retail trader interest may be elsewhere than financial markets.

Chart 1: US Retail Money Funds: June 2011 to June 2021

Return to Normalcy Harkens Shift in Retail Trading Era

As the American sports betting industry managed to turn a profit of $3 billion in 2020 – a rather meaningful jump from the $1.5 billion in profit in 2019 – it meant that more individuals were deploying their capital outside of financial markets.

In fact, over the past year, retail money funds have dropped by approximately $100 billion, according to data retrieved from the St. Louis Federal Reserve's database. Early indications from the third quarter of 2021 suggest that account openings slowed, perhaps as much by 50%, consistent with the data that shows retail money funds are now at their lowest since February 2020 – the month before the US economy began to lockdown.

Retail Impulse Fading?

With US equity markets near all-time highs at the time this commentary was written, the drop of retail money funds suggests that speculative fervor has faded; Americans are deploying their capital elsewhere. If asked, 'where has all the retail gone?,' at first consideration, you might say, 'sports betting.'

But recall what DraftKings CEO Robins said about his company's biggest competition: "the beach this summer." There's an argument to be made that this mindset – shifting away from pandemic-era leisure activities and returning to pre-pandemic life – has been felt in American financial markets as well, one which may continue now that speculators' attention has shifted from beach season to football season.

Chart 2: US Mobility Index (Apple Maps) versus Total Single Stock Call Options Volume (2021 YTD)

Return to Normalcy Harkens Shift in Retail Trading Era

Using an equal weighted model of Apple's driving and transit data from their mobility data file allows us to construct a simple US Mobility Index. Indexed to 100 on January 13, 2020 (the beginning of the time series made available by Apple), our US Mobility Index suggests that Americans are nearly +35% 'more mobile' (depending upon method of mobility) as of September 13, 2021 than they were prior to the start of the pandemic.

What's noteworthy is the fact that even though June saw a significant Federal Reserve policy meeting followed by the largest quad witching day in history (in terms of options contracts traded and total volumes), total trading call volumes actually peaked back in February. The fact of the matter is that with more mobility within the US economy, there are fewer people participating in financial markets.

An Omen, Good or Bad?

At the end of the day, participation in financial markets, particularly for newer investors and traders, is contingent on one thing and one thing only: opportunity. When does opportunity arise in financial markets? Well, to put it simply…when things are moving. In non-layman's terms: volatility.

Chart 3: GVZ, MOVE, OVX, & VIX Daily Timeframe (2021 YTD)

Return to Normalcy Harkens Shift in Retail Trading Era

But for a brief spike in March around the Fed meeting and then again this June (also around the Fed meeting), measures of volatility have been on a steady downward trajectory for the better part of three months (and really, since the beginning of the year if you ignore MOVE, Treasuries volatility).

This adds another layer of intrigue to the retail trader mania saga. It's quite the feedback loop, if you think about it: as the US economy improves, measures of mobility should continue to increase; evidence of increasing mobility gives greater hope that improvements in the US economy will be sustained; which in turn reduces investors' concerns about the future, finally dragging down expectations around volatility.

It stands to reason that as we persist in a lower volatility environment, which incidentally may be good for a steady float higher in US equity prices, could also see the level of interest among retail traders start to fade. After all, people want to go to where the action is. And now that summer's over, it's no longer at the beach – but back on the football field.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist for DailyFX




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HK50 Forex e Crypto como CALCULAR STOP e LOTE Gerenciamento de risco

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 01:01 PM PST




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O Que São Lotes Forex – Calcular Lotes Forex
O conceito de “lote” no mercado Forex e trading de CFDs é um conceito básico no desenvolvimento de quaisquer estratégias de trading. Os “lotes” (lots, em Inglês) são um dos fundamentos do money management, pois correspondem ao investimento do seu capital no mercado.

Entender essa noção básica é, portanto, de grande importância para o seu sucesso no trading, para atingir as suas ambições e para o seu sucesso futuro, e permitirá que você compreenda melhor o fator de risco, que alguns Traders por vezes tendem a esquecer.

Em primeiro lugar, é importante notar que este artigo não pretende dizer-lhe quais são as melhores estratégias de negociação para adotar no trading, nem como se pode tornar num trader bem-sucedido, mas sim para lhe trazer uma compreensão rica e detalhada da noção de “lote” no mercado Forex e nos restantes mercados financeiros.

O Que são Lotes Forex? Como Funciona os Lotes no Forex
Talvez se esteja a perguntar: Mas afinal o que é um Lote em Forex? Temos a resposta para si!

Um lote em Forex Trading é uma unidade de valor que mede o tamanho de uma transação. De uma forma geral, é o tamanho de um contrato financeiro. Por outras palavras, dependendo do número de lotes forex negociados, o valor investido será maior ou menor. Quanto maior for o tamanho de lotes utilizado, ou o número de lotes, maior será o seu valor investido e vice-versa. No mercado de Forex Trading e de CFDs, é possível identificar 3 tipos diferentes de lotes:

O Lote Padrão
O Mini Lote
O Micro Lot

Estas três noções serão definidas e detalhadas mais à frente neste artigo. Mas antes disso, é importante observar que a noção e o valor de um “lot size” (tamanho de um lote, em português) é diferente, dependendo se pretende negociar um par de moedas Forex, ou um índice de ações, uma matéria-prima, CFDs de criptomoedas, ou até mesmo uma ação. Antes de rever todas estas variações, fique a saber que a Admiral Markets desenvolveu uma ferramenta super eficaz e eficiente, a “Calculadora de Trading”, uma calculadora de lotes Forex & CFDs, na qual pode calcular os lotes Forex e em CFDs de diversos ativos subjacentes. Esta ferramenta irá permitir que calcule com mais facilidade e rapidez, o valor ideal do seu lote, independentemente do instrumento financeiro e do mercado em que está a negociar.

Como Calcular Lotes Forex – Quanto Vale 1 Lote Forex
Agora que já vimos o que são lotes / lots e qual é o seu significado, vamos agora mostrar-lhe como pode calcular lotes Forex, pois o mais importante do que saber o que é um lote no Forex, é saber como pode aplicar todo este conhecimento para ter de sucesso no seu trading! Para determinar o tamanho de lote que deve utilizar na sua trade em Forex, vá diretamente à nossa Calculadora de Lotes Forex e saiba o valor exato de um lote para cada instrumento financeiro. A calculadora de tamanho da sua posição em Forex é uma ferramenta indispensável para o seu trading e é muito fácil de usar. Aqui está um exemplo que lhe irá permitir calcular automaticamente o tamanho do lote Forex.

HK50 (Hang Seng Index) – ĺndice da bolsa de valores de Honk Kong
HK50 é o CFD índice muito importante da bolsa de Honk Kong (Hang Seng Index), que se calcula como o valor médio ponderado das ações das grandes empresas chinesas que são negociadas nesta bolsa. O cálculo do índice leva em conta o valor atual do preço de cada ação

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0:12 Como Calcular Lote hk50
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2:03 como calcular stop loss e take profit
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USD/CAD Rate Outlook Mired by Bear Flag Formation

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 12:44 PM PST



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Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD attempts to retrace the initial decline following the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), but the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the start of the month as it struggles to trade back above the 200-Day SMA (1.2472).

USD/CAD Rate Outlook Mired by Bear Flag Formation

USD/CAD slipped to a fresh weekly low (1.2387) even as the headline US CPI reading jumped to its highest level since 1990, and the exchange rate may continue to carve a series of lower highs and lows over the coming days as it appears to be trading within a bear flag formation.

As a result, USD/CAD may face a further decline if it manages to break the opening range for November, but the larger-than-expected uptick in the US CPI seems to be curbing the recent weakness in the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement higher interest rates sooner rather than later.

It remains to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will react to the stickiness in inflation as the central bank is slated to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at its next interest rate decision on December 15, and a forward shift in the interest rate dot-plot may prop up US yields throughout the remainder of the year with Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. on track to winddown the emergency measures over the months ahead.

Until then, USD/CAD may continue to give back the advance from the monthly low (1.2352) as it struggles to trade back above the 200-Day SMA (1.2472), but a further decline in the exchange rate may continue to alleviate the tilt in retail sentiment like the behavior seen earlier this year.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for USD/CAD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows 70.26% of traders are currently net-long USD/CAD, with the ratio of traders long to short standing at 2.36 to 1.

The number of traders net-long is 6.99% lower than yesterday and 9.95% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is unchanged than yesterday and 16.06% higher from last week. The decline in net-long interest has helped to alleviate the tilt in retail sentiment as 75.04% of traders were net-long USD/CAD last week, while the rise in net-short position comes as the exchange rate struggles to trade back above the 200-Day SMA (1.2472).

With that said, USD/CAD may continue to give back the advance from the start of the month as it starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows, and a bear flag formation may unfold over the coming days if the exchange rate manages to break of the opening range for November.

USD/CAD Rate Daily Chart

Image of USD/CAD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, USD/CAD cleared the January high (1.2881) in August as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation took shape, with the development indicating a shift in the broader trend as the 50-Day SMA (1.2533) established a positive slope.
  • However, the moving average has negated the upward trend as USD/CAD failed to take out the August high (1.2949), with the exchange rate taking out the July low (1.2303) in October as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 30.
  • In turn, a bear flag formation has taken shape a USD/CAD struggles to trade back above the 200-Day SMA (1.2472), but need a close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2410 (23.6% expansion) to 1.2440 (23.6% expansion) to open up the 1.2360 (100% expansion) region, which lines up with channel support.
  • The continuation pattern may unfold if USD/CAD manages to take out the November low (1.2352), with a move below the October low (1.2288) bringing the 1.2250 (50% retracement) to 1.2260 (38.2% expansion) area on the radar.
  • However, the bear flag formation may unravel if USD/CAD climbs above the 200-Day SMA (1.2472) to push above the 1.2510 (78.6% retracement) region, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.2620 (50% retracement) to 1.2660 (78.6% expansion).

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong




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Trading en FOREX: Resultados y GANANCIAS de cuenta real [Mayo 2019]

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 11:59 AM PST




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US Dollar Jumps to Yearly Highs on the Back of Weak 30-Year Treasury Auction

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 11:41 AM PST



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US Dollar, US Treasury Auction, Dollar Index, Inflation – Talking Points

  • US Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at high yield of 1.94%, vs. 1.888% pre-auction
  • USD breaks through 94.50, Dollar Index makes fresh one-year highs above 98.84
  • Bonds were already under pressure pre-auction following US CPI data earlier

A weaker-than-expected auction of 30-year Treasury bonds saw a tail of 5.2 basis points, the largest on record for a 30-year auction. For context, the average tail over the last 6 months has been only 0.5 basis points. The US Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year securities at a high yield of 1.94%, compared to a pre-auction yield of 1.888%. The immediate spike in yields pushed the US Dollar higher, with the Greenback hitting fresh one-year highs above 98.84. Yields had already been moving higher on the session, as US inflation data came in much hotter than expected earlier this morning.

US Dollar Index 30 Minute Chart

US Dollar Jumps to Yearly Highs on the Back of Weak 30-Year Treasury Auction

Chart created on TradingView

Prior to the 30-year auction, US Treasuries were already under pressure following this morning's hot CPI print. Yields were on the move immediately following the release of the CPI data as market participants rushed to move forward their expectations for Fed rate hikes. The weak auction in the afternoon further exacerbated the march higher in yields, with the curve broadly shifting upward. While the market moves to price in hawkish Fed action, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to stick to his guns on the "transitory" nature of inflation.

30-Year Auction Results

  • High Yield Rate: 1.940% (prev 2.049%)
  • Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.2 (prev 2.36)
  • Direct Accepted: 15.8% (prev 17.2%)
  • Indirect Accepted: 59.0% (prev 70.5%)
  • WI: 1.888%

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern

To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter




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99.8% EA Forex owner satisfaction votes for Hedged Forex EA and trading strategy. Easiest 2017 Robot

Posted: 10 Nov 2021 10:57 AM PST




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