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FIGURE CHARTISTE Trading Forex �� LE DRAPEAU

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 02:49 PM PST




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NZD/USD Outperforms as RBNZ Rate Bets Tighten, Business PMI Improves

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 02:13 PM PST



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New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, Crude Oil, NZ Business PMI – Talking Points

  • Markets look set for a risk-on day after Wall Street stocks move higher
  • New Zealand business activity rises sharply in September per BusinessNZ
  • NZD/USD pierces the 50-day SMA after prices rise from triangle pattern

Friday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets are set to move higher on the open after an upbeat Wall Street session saw stocks move higher overnight. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained over half a percent on the close, its best performance in months. A series of better-than-expected earnings from US companies appear to be bolstering market sentiment. The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar lead gains versus the dollar in the APAC region.

Oil prices are moving higher as the global energy crunch – driven by surging natural gas and coal prices – sends ripples through energy markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday that shortages in natural gas and coal are boosting demand for oil products. Europe and Asia are driving the bulk of that demand it appears.

The Energy Information Administration reported a drop in Cushing Oklahoma crude oil stockpiles overnight. The drawdown is likely being caused by high demand for exports of sweet crude oil, which is easier to refine for power plant usage than heavier oil products such as Brent. Power plants are switching to oil as a power source due to the astronomically high prices of natural gas.

CRUDE OIL, CUSHING OKLAHOMA, WTI, cl

The safe-haven US Dollar softened further overnight, extending its drop from a recently made 2021 high for the second day now via the DXY index. That is allowing commodities largely priced in USDs to catch a bid such as copper and silver. Gold also moved higher overnight as Treasury yields pulled back. The benchmark 10-year note's yield dropped for a third day.

New Zealand saw PMI data cross the wires from BusinessNZ. The BNZ manufacturing index rose to 51.4 from 40.1 for September. The sharp bounce back in business activity reflects a series of Covid restrictions being rolled back, primarily those in Auckland. NZD/USD traded at its highest level since September 24 after the Kiwi Dollar's overnight gain. Traders will be on the lookout for China to release foreign direct investment (FDI) data for September over the next few days.

The New Zealand Dollar's outperformance versus the US Dollar relative to regional peer currencies such as the Aussie Dollar reflect aggressive rate hike bets. The market is pricing in a much more aggressive rate hike path for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Those bets can be viewed through overnight index swaps (OIS). The chart below shows the aggressive pricing from swap traders, with the one-year OIS at its highest level since early 2020.

nzd, nzdusd, rate bets, rbnz

NZD/USD Technical Forecast

NZD/USD broke above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) overnight. Bulls started to drive prices higher Thursday when prices broke above the resistance level of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Prices are now testing September levels, with the psychologically imposing 0.71 handle nearing. A pullback may see the 50-day SMA step in to provide support. RSI is nearing overbought territory at the 70 level, while MACD continues higher.

NZD/USD 8-Hour Chart

nzdusd technical

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter




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Tahapan Membaca dan Analisa Market Forex || Step by Step Read and Analyze Forex Market

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 01:47 PM PST




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Membaca dan menganalisa market menjadi hal paling mendasar yang perlu dikuasai oleh seorang trader. Banyak cara untuk melakukan hal tersebut, salah satunya dalam video ini yang merupakan strategi paling sederhana.

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NZD/USD Rises After Q3 Inflation Bolsters RBNZ Rate Hike Outlook

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 01:12 PM PST



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New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, Q3 Inflation, RBNZ, China GDP – Talking Points

  • New Zealand Dollar rises after Q3 inflation beats estimates at 4.9% versus 4.1%
  • New Zealand business services activity improves in September per BusinessNZ
  • NZD/USD rises to late-September swing high as RSI hints at overbought conditions

Monday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar is moving higher to start the week after inflation beat analysts' expectations. The third-quarter consumer price index (CPI) crossed the wires at 4.9% on a year-over-year basis versus a median expectation of 4.1%, according to a Bloomberg survey. NZD/USD caught a bid on the report, which puts the currency pair on track to extend gains from last week.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data comes after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its overnight cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points earlier this month. Analysts expect the central bank to hike rates in gradual 25 bps increments. However, the hot inflation print may have some policy makers considering a more aggressive approach. Overnight swaps hit the highest level since early 2020 last week.

NZD-derived overnight index swaps increased last week, with the one-year OIS rising to its highest level since January 2020, which reflects a rise in rate hike bets. The island nation also saw its Performance of Services Index (PSI) increase for September, according to data from BusinessNZ. PSI increased to 46.9 from 35.6, marking a significant uptick in services activity. That follows an upbeat September business PMI print from last week.

Traders will shift focus to Chinese data due out later today. China's third-quarter GDP growth rate will provide the most likely potential for event risks. Data on fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment will also cross the wires. Analysts expect to see Q3 GDP come across at 5.2% y/y, and a 3.3% y/y figure for September retail sales. The data prints may set the tone for trading through the remainder of the week.

The Australian Dollar is a prime candidate to see some volatility around the Chinese data dump. AUD/USD traded higher last week as a closely watched yield spread to gauge economic health dropped, which weighed on the US Dollar. That also helped gold and other metals, including aluminum and copper, to rise. The strong performance in metals coincidentally boosted the Aussie Dollar, as well as a pullback in Covid restrictions.

NZD/USD Technical Forecast

NZD/USD is testing a late-September swing high at 0.7093 after gaining into the APAC session. Prices have been on the up since breaking higher from a Symmetrical Triangle pattern last week. If prices fail to pierce 0.7093, a drop back to the recently breached 50-day Simple Moving Average is on the cards. The Relative Strength Index is currently in overbought territory at 76.90, indicating prices may be overextended on a technical basis.

NZD/USD 8-Hour Chart

nzdusd chart

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter




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The Language of Forex

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 12:47 PM PST




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Forex is one of the most popular markets to trade, but the jargon used by forex traders and providers can be confusing until you learn it. In this video IG's Jeremy Naylor explains a range of terms used in forex, so that you can get a good grounding in the basic terminology.

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Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 12:08 PM PST



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What is COP26 and Why Does it Matter for Markets?

Against the backdrop of rising energy prices leading to economic fallout for economies in Asia, Europe, and North America, COP26, a two-week event, is set to begin on October 31 in Glasgow, Scotland. The United Nations' Conference of Parties (COP) was first held in 1995, and COP26 gets its name for this year's meeting being the 26th iteration of such an event.

History of global temperature change and causes of recent warming (Chart 1)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Source: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (IPCC)

COP26, later this month and in early-November, will be an attempt to get countries on the path to fulfilling the goals laid out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris accord outlined the goal of keeping the planet from warming by 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, and if possible, to stop warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (relative to pre-industrial era readings).

Per a report released this summer from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the planet has roughly ten years left to make significant cuts to emissions before the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is reached, with the planet already having warmed by 1-1.2 degrees Celsius relative to the end of the 19th century.

Assessed contributions to observed warming in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900 (Chart 2)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Source: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (IPCC)

A sense of urgency underscores COP26, but the October/November summit – whose aim is effectively to curb use of fossil fuels like coal and oil – is arriving at the worst possible time thanks to a budding energy supply crisis gripping most of the globe's major economies.

Why Are Energy Supply Concerns Proliferating?

To meet their obligations laid out in the Paris Climate Agreement, many of the world's major economies – China, the UK, the US, among others – have attempted to scale back their use of coal and oil as primary energy sources. But with the coronavirus pandemic's impact still being felt, supply chains have been in disarray. Just days ahead of COP26, China announced that they would begin to restart coal production in order to meet the country's energy needs.

Companies unable to secure raw materials in a timely manner as well as labor markets not recovering as quickly as anticipated have created job shortages in key areas like truck drivers, leaving energy supplies unable to be transported (Europe, the UK). Closures at ports have compounded the problem (the US). Trade tensions remain tense in some areas (Australia, China). Seasonally, with winter coming in the Northern Hemisphere, fears are that demand will continue to outstrip available energy supplies (fossil fuels or renewables) that could create a more significant economic issue over the coming months.

How Could COP26 Exacerbate Energy Supply Issues?

It is no secret that the world's major economies are doing a poor job at achieving the goals laid out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Recent attempts to do so – by cutting coal consumption, for example – have created a scarcity of available electricity, which has disrupted global manufacturing chains based out of Asia (China), contributing to the rise in inflation felt in North America and Europe.

The goals outlined at COP26 over the coming weeks may be noble, but without available alternative energy sources – an abundance of renewables such as hydro, solar, and wind, as well as the typically controversial nuclear option – efforts to slow down and even reverse the planet's warming may very-well provoke deeper problems for the world's major economies in 4Q'21 and into 2022.

What Assets Could Be Impacted by COP26 Efforts?

From a trader's perspective, the goals outlined at COP26 could prove to have a long-term impact on various markets, especially commodities and currencies. A reduction in oil production, for example, without available alternative energy sources, could provoke significantly higher energy prices in the short-term as demand remains robust.

Currencies whose economies are significant exporters of fossil fuels like the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Norwegian Krone, could see increased speculation around potential for gains before the longer-term narrative of transitioning away from fossil fuels weighs on price action. Opportunity may continue to grow for those market participants that appear to be providing a solution to the problem, such as electrical vehicle companies like Tesla.

Long-term Technical Outlook for COP26-sensitive Assets

Oil and energy sit at the crossroads of geopolitics, largely because there are choices that can be made that can improve or diminish the supply/demand equilibrium of many of these markets. And while the various decisions around those choices may seem clear to you or I, messiness is a feature of democracy, not a bug, and this can often lead to an imbalance in policy from administration to administration. Messiness can set off a whole host of changes in the geopolitical picture.

This is very evident in oil production, which still succumbs to the supply constraints of major producers such as OPEC-plus, Russia, Canada and more recently, the United States.

As oil prices ran high in 2007 and 2008, the drive for US energy independence was high, and this led to significant investment in shale extraction which was previously thought of as impossible and/or far too costly. Shale extraction added significant supply to US oil potential but it also came with uncertain environmental consequences.

The concern around those environmental consequences has had profound impact, with support driven towards companies like Tesla that are working on a future with less reliance on fossil fuels.

Crude Oil

But in crude oil, the move that showed this year has the power to continue and with oil prices hitting a fresh seven-year-high, and while overbought on a shorter-term basis, there is little standing in the way of a run up to the 90-handle. The 100 level is a major psychological level and this is the point where the politics of oil might find its way back into the headlines as a major inflection point: Whether or not that'll induce price action remains another matter entirely.

Crude Oil Monthly Price Chart (Chart 3)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Crude Oil on Tradingview

Natural Gas

Natural gas faces some of the same problems as oil: extraction is dirty and brings unknown environmental consequences, adding significant red tape for new projects and this, of course, constrains supplies. It is necessary, however, for residential and commercial heating and the world relies heavily on this resource during the frigid winter months.

In Europe, there's particular concern for this winter. Much of the continent's natural gas supply comes from Russia or Norway, which makes them vulnerable to price changes and, of course, supply disruptions. The consequences of an adverse scenario are high, illustrated by the warning last month that UK supermarkets may face shortages of fresh food after a US fertilizer manufacturer suspended production due to rising gas prices. This cut off as much as 60% of Britain's supply of carbon dioxide, which has a wide range of uses in the food chain.

One look at the Natural Gas chart shows that there could be more room for this trend to run, as prices have simply pushed up for a test of the eight-year high, plotted at 6.493.

October, thus far, has been a pullback; but support has showed up at a key spot, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2005-2020 major move, which is confluent with the prior seven-year-high, plotted around the 4.824 area.

Natural Gas Monthly Price Chart (Chart 4)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Natural Gas on Tradingview

USD/CAD

Given the heavy deposits of natural resources in Canada, the Canadian Dollar will often trade with a similar drive as crude oil, and at times that correlation can be profound with oil and CAD moving in tune with each other.

If we are looking at crude oil making a run at the 90-handle, then there could be significant breakdown potential in USD/CAD, which had shown ahead of the 2021 open, and continued into June until support started to come into play around the 1.2000 handle. Along the way, the US Dollar caught a bid and extended that retracement into a fifth month until sellers came back with aggression.

The next big spot of support is around that same 1.2000 handle, after which a break would amount to fresh six-year-lows in the pair. There could be even greater bearish potential beyond that price, with the area around 1.1500 presenting some interest for longer-term support.

USD/CAD Monthly Price Chart (Chart 5)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

USD/NOK

USD/NOK carries a similar outlay as USD/CAD, with a currency from an oil-rich nation could see significant strength should energy prices continue to rise. In USD/NOK, the technical outlook has been a bit more prone to recent trends, and at this point a bullish trendline continues to hold the low. This trendline is what came into play to cauterize support from April-June, with a morning star formation basing off that trendline projection. The bullish response that formation capped out at the 9.0000 handle, and price action has reverted for a trendline test.

A breach of that three-year-low established in April, plotted around 8.1500, can open the door for a run down towards the Fibonacci level and prior support swing around 7.6887, and if that cannot hold, there is an air pocket all the way down to the 7.3123 level.

USD/NOK Monthly Price Chart (Chart 6)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDNOK on Tradingview

Tesla: The Ultimate Pump

Perhaps no corporation illustrates the world's tolerance of crude oil like Tesla. The electric car manufacturer has no short of naysayers owed to exorbitant valuations and, let us call them unusual business practices. At this point, Tesla's market cap is more than that of the nine largest auto manufacturers in the world – all nine. And Tesla currently makes up less than 1% of all auto sales so this is a glaring divergence that is caused many great fund managers to open short on Tesla only to get burned because the price just continually moved higher.

At the core of this push is the green movement, with government subsidies continuing to support Tesla's business model by incentivizing consumers to buy their product. In many ways, Tesla has profoundly changed the industry, but competition was not ready to wait around and watch their share go up in fumes. Instead, we have seen these established auto manufacturers incorporate more of a green model, and in many cases these manufacturers already have established sales and distribution systems.

Tesla was a very volatile stock before Covid, but it became an entirely new animal after the pandemic, with TSLA jumping by more than 1,100% from the March 2020 low up to the January 2021 high. Rightfully, after such a run, the stock then put in a pullback, retracing until support began to form around the 38.2% retracement of that major move.

Tesla Daily Price Chart (Chart 7)

Why COP26 Matters for Markets

Chart prepared by James Stanley; TSLA on Tradingview

But, as oil prices started to break through those key resistance areas around 65 and then 70, Tesla caught a significant bid that continues to hold, with the stock now re-approaching the 900-level which currently marks the all-time-high for TSLA.

From an investment standpoint, getting long here could be challenging, particularly on a long-term basis given those extreme valuations. But, on a short-term basis and as indicated by the below chart, TSLA continues to bring the volatility. For traders focusing on volatility, a continued push towards green initiatives can keep TSLA on the move over the coming weeks and months.

— Written by James Stanley and Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategists




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�� BAIXAR ROBO FOREX GRATIS ROBO TRADER SCALPER GRATUITO 2020

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 11:45 AM PST




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AUD/USD Eyes RBA Minutes Amid Mixed Sentiment

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 11:06 AM PST



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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBA, Risk Trends – Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar falls as Wall Street stocks end the day mixed
  • RBA monetary policy meeting minutes in focus for APAC traders
  • AUD/USD strength may resume on bullish SMA crossover

Tuesday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets may open mixed after Wall Street closed the opening day of trading mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.10%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 rose just over 1%. Investors weighed positive corporate earnings against slowing economic growth and rising inflation threats. The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar moved lower overnight versus the US Dollar, although the Greenback didn't see broad strength despite

China's GDP growth rate missing estimates on Monday likely spurred the mixed trading dynamics seen overnight. Third-quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.9% from 5.2%, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar. That was well below the 5.2% Bloomberg consensus forecast. Industrial production and fixed asset investment also missed estimates, although retail sales surprised to the upside.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed versus the Australian Dollar, which owes to a hotter-than-expected inflation print on Monday. New Zealand's third-quarter GDP crossed the wires at 4.9% versus an expected 4.1% on a y/y basis. The hot CPI figure pushed RBNZ rate bets higher overnight, which fed into Kiwi Dollar strength. AUD/NZD is over 0.30% lower going into APAC trade.

Tuesday's session will be relatively quiet, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's October monetary policy meeting minutes set to cross the wires at 20:30 GMT. Indonesia's central bank will release an interest rate decision. Elsewhere, crude oil prices eased overnight, driven by the Chinese GDP miss. Elsewhere, Bitcoin moved higher as the first Bitcoin futures ETF sets to launch this week.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD pulled back slightly overnight but the currency pair's gains for the month appear unthreatened. RSI and MACD look to be cooling off, but the rising 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crossing above the longer-term 50-day SMA, a bullish sign. That said, if prices move higher, the September high at 0.7478 will shift into view.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

audusd

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter




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How To Set The BBMA Indicator – Forex Trading

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 10:42 AM PST




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This is how to set the BBMA indicator for forex trading, using only the default indicator or available on the metatrader.
So you don’t need to be confused looking for indicators for forex trading.
by Forex Tube

Watch too :

Forex Trading Strategy Fibonacci Break, Very Simple

Forex Trading Strategies – The Secret Of Dinapoli

Forex Trading – The Correct Use Of Fibonacci Retracement

Forex Trading Basic – Moving Average

Forex Trading – Support And Resistance

#IndicatorForex #bbma #forex
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AUD/USD Probes September High as APAC Traders Eye China’s Lending Rates

Posted: 07 Nov 2021 10:03 AM PST



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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Fed, PBOC, Crude oil – Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar gains as Wall Street moves higher on risk taking
  • Chinese lending rates, Australian Westpac data in focus for APAC
  • AUD/USD test the multi-month September swing high at 0.7478

Wednesday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

The Australian Dollar made a big move higher versus the US Dollar overnight after Wall Street traders shifted back into a risk-on stance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed 0.54% higher. A string of positive corporate earnings is helping to bolster risk-taking. Netflix reported strong third-quarter numbers following the New York closing bell.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said overnight that balance sheet growth tapering should start after the next FOMC announcement. Mr. Waller gave an optimistic outlook on employment while playing down inflation threats. The next FOMC meeting will take place on November 2-3. Treasury yields on the long-end of the curve rose, while the shorter-term 2- and 5-year notes' yields fell.

Today's Asia-Pacific session will see Japan report its September trade figures, with analysts expecting a 519.2 billion yen deficit. Australia's Westpac leading index (Sept) will follow at 00:00 GMT. Later in the day, China will see new home prices for September cross the wires. Traders are also keeping an eye out for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to set its 1- and 5-year loan prime rates. Analysts expect to see no changes to either setting.

Elsewhere, oil prices gained despite the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a large inventory build. Crude oil stocks for the week ending October 15 crossed the wires at 3.294 million barrels, exceeding the 2.233 million barrel consensus forecast build, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Natural gas prices rose nearly 2%, although prices remain down on the month.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD gained overnight, testing the multi-month September swing high at 0.7478 before easing slightly. A bullish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) occurred overnight, which indicates an uptick in upside momentum. Breaking above the September high will open the door for a quick test of the psychologically imposing 0.75 handle.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

audusd

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter




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