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- Will US-China Tensions Spur a Hong Kong IPO Wave? Introducing the Hang Seng Tech Index
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- Gold Price Surge Signals Markets Fear Fed Lagging on Inflation
- Analisis Gold Hari ini Senin 8 Nov, Cara OP saat Trend Terkoreksi || Forex Analysis Today
- GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure From the US Dollar and Article 16 Fears
- BEST Four Candlestick Patterns to Profit in Forex & Crypto, you will ever need (traders must master)
- Relationship Manager Yes First Business
- Brent Crude (LCOc1), S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) & GBP/USD – FinTwit Trends to Watch
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- YARD MAN SMASHED $15K IN PROFITS TRADING FOREX | USDCHF & EURJPY CHART MARK UP REVIEW
| Will US-China Tensions Spur a Hong Kong IPO Wave? Introducing the Hang Seng Tech Index Posted: 12 Nov 2021 03:32 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------  Will US-China Tensions Spur a Hong Kong IPO Wave? Introducing the Hang Seng Tech Index The Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) – dubbed"Hong Kong's Nasdaq" by market-watchers – represents China's fast growing 'new economy'. It is comprised of many renowned tech firms, such as Tencent and Alibaba. WHAT IS HANG SENG TECH INDEX – AN INTRODUCTION Launched on 27 July 2020, the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) is madeup of the 30 largest tech stocks listed in Hong Kong. It represents China's fast growing 'new economy' and rides the tailwind of a growing number of IPOs and secondary listings in Hong Kong amid US-China trade tensions. Stricter listing rules imposed by US regulators in 2020-2021 prompted Chinese tech firms to consider Hong Kong as an alternative venue to raise capital. HSTECH acts as a market bellwether and fills a structural gap among existing indices to provide a more comprehensive picture of China's emerging technology sector. Firms such as Tencent, Alibaba and Meituanhave reshaped China’s service-oriented new economy, accelerating a shift away from the old infrastructure- and export-oriented growth model. Companies in the HSTECH have registered much faster growth rates compared to China’s GDP over the last four years (chart below). HSTECH Revenue Growth vs China GDP Growth
Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX HANG SENG TECH INDEX VS. HANG SENG INDEX The Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) is a freefloat, market capitalization weighted index. It applies an 8% weighting cap on individual constituent and is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly. HSTECH is a tech-heavy benchmark, with information technology companies contributing more than 70% of its weighting. Growth firms tend to have higher financial performance multiples, such as the PE ratio, and lower dividend yields. This is because most of them reinvest profits in technology re-development and gaining market share. These unique features distinguish HSTECH from the Hang Seng Index (HSI), which is the most widely used benchmark for the broader Hong Kong stock market. The key differences are illustrated below.
Source: hsi.com.hk (as of June 2021) TOP CONSTITUENTS AND WHAT THEY DO The top 10 constituents in HSTECH are listed as follow.We can compare them with thetop 10 companies in the NASDAQ 100, the most followed tech benchmark in the world. Top 10 Stocks in the HSTECH and NASDAQ 100
Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX It is worth noting that 8 out of the top 10 HSTECH companies are involved in the so-called "platform economy". This means that they aim to connect consumers, entrepreneurs, and the public through digital platforms. These include food-delivery services (Meituan), e-commerce (Alibaba and JD.COM), digital payments (Alipay, TenPay), short videos (Kuaishou), communications (WeChat), and healthcare (JD Health and Ali Health). The remaining two – Sunny Optical and SMIC – are doing high-tech manufacturing related to smartphone devices and semiconductors, respectively. By contrast, only 3 of the top 10 Nasdaq 100 companiesare focused on platforms – Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet. Therefore, the Nasdaq 100 is more diversified and comprises a wider range of subsectors, such as software development (Adobe, Microsoft), electric vehicles (Tesla) and semiconductors (ASML). STOCK PERFORMANCE, SECTOR OUTLOOK AND REGULATORY RISK The majority of HSTECHcompanies are growth stocks, which tend to draw investors whoprioritize capital gains over dividend yield. Their performance depends on various factors, including the underlying macroeconomic backdrop, the companies' varying business models, and the regulatory environment they are facing. Most HSTECH component companies reside in mainland China, supported by a boom in e-commerce, digital payments, food delivery and streaming media services.Although they havefared well in the last decade or so, the recent tightening of regulatory oversight from Beijing may cast a shadow over the outlook going forward. For example, Alibaba was fined US$2.8 billion in April 2021 amid Beijing's sweeping anti–monopoly campaign, putting regulatory risk in the spotlight. Policy makers also came up with a minimum wage policy for workers, which may dampen growth prospects forfood deliveryservice leader Meituan. With this in mind, market participantswill be keen to monitor any upcoming regulatorychanges. FURTHER READING If you are new to the Hong Kong stock market, you can read our primer on the local benchmark Hang Sent Index (HSI)to boost your knowledge. Hang Seng Tech Index is known as "Nasdaq of Hong Kong", so you can also read about how to trade the Nasdaq 100 to take your understanding to the next level. Learn more about major global stock indices by referring to our guides: Last but not the least, download our free equities forecast to better understand future trends in the market.
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| Posted: 12 Nov 2021 03:02 PM PST
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| Gold Price Surge Signals Markets Fear Fed Lagging on Inflation Posted: 12 Nov 2021 02:30 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK:
Gold prices are trading near five-month highs having surged mid-week as October's US CPI report put price growth at an eye-watering 6.2 percent on-year. Interestingly, the metal rallied even as the data stoked a hawkish shift in Fed policy bets, pulling the US Dollar higher. Markets have seemingly added a full additional rate hike into priced-in projections of the rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures. Before the CPI release, 145 basis points (bps) in hikes through the end of 2024 looked to be baked into asset values. Now, 171bps appear on the menu. The shape of the yield curve also changed. The long end (5- to 10-year Treasury yields) flattened while the short end (3-month to 2-year yields) and the belly (2- to 5-year yields) steepened. That seems to imply that tightening is now expected to begin sooner and proceed more aggressively than previously thought. Seeing gold rise against such a backdrop – which might have been expected hurt the non-interest-bearing, anti-fiat metal – might signal that traders still worry about a Fed that is behind the curve even as the priced-in tightening timeline is accelerated. That might portend room for hawkish repricing to continue. Bullion may thus emerge as a handy timing indicator as markets attempt to coalesce around a baseline outlook. If gold prices begin to struggle as policy bets grow sterner and the Greenback gains, that might warn that the current readjustment is on course toward exhaustion. In the near term, November's University of Michigan gauge of US consumer confidence as well as the JOLTs job openings figure are in focus. Sentiment is expected to warm up a bit – albeit within the narrow range prevailing since August's inflation-fueled plunge – while vacancies tick down for a second month. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – READY TO TEST ABOVE $1900?Gold prices are testing resistance capped at 1870.75. A break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis might set the stage to challenge the swing high at 1916.53. Near-term support is anchored at 1827.51 and followed swiftly by another notable level at 1804.10. Pushing below that may expose 1750.78.
Gold price chart created using TradingView GOLD TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
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| Analisis Gold Hari ini Senin 8 Nov, Cara OP saat Trend Terkoreksi || Forex Analysis Today Posted: 12 Nov 2021 02:00 PM PST
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| GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure From the US Dollar and Article 16 Fears Posted: 12 Nov 2021 01:28 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar The US dollar continues to dominate price action in the FX-space, leaving a range of currencies at the risk of making multi-month and multi-year lows, including GBP/USD. The latest US dollar rally, sparked by data showing US inflation at a 30-year high, has pushed cable back below 1.3400, leaving the pair at risk of further losses with little technical support seen. While USD strength is the main driver of GBP/USD of late, ongoing tensions between the EU and UK may now be adding downside pressure on the British Pound. As it currently stands, the EU has made an improved offer to reduce customs checks in Northern Ireland and is calling for the UK to improve its position. The main stumbling block is the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in policing the agreement. The EU says that the ECJ role is not up for negotiation, while the UK says the opposite. Talks continue and while they do, with the very real possibility of Article 16 being triggered, Sterling will remain weak. Article 16: Why Triggering it Risks an All Out UK-EU Trade War The daily chart highlights the current weakness in GBP/USD and suggests that support may be hard to find if the pair continues to fall. There is a cluster of prior lows and highs made at the end of 2020 on either side of 1.3300 that may act as initial support. If this level is broken conclusively, then the pair may eventually fall all the way back to 1.3100. Since late May the chart has been dominated by lower highs and lower lows and this pattern may be difficult to break in the short term. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart November 12, 2021
Retail trader data show 77.28% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.40 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.66% higher than yesterday and 13.98% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.79% higher than yesterday and 9.66% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias. {{SENTIMENT|GBP/USD}} What is your view on GBP/USD– bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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| BEST Four Candlestick Patterns to Profit in Forex & Crypto, you will ever need (traders must master) Posted: 12 Nov 2021 12:58 PM PST
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| Relationship Manager Yes First Business Posted: 12 Nov 2021 12:51 PM PST
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| Brent Crude (LCOc1), S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) & GBP/USD – FinTwit Trends to Watch Posted: 12 Nov 2021 12:25 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ FINTWIT ANALYSIS
OPEC HOLDING BACK SUPPLY MAY SUSTAIN HIGH BRENT CRUDE PRICESOPEC released its monthly oil market report for November this week which did not contain any major revisions from the previous report, resulting in minimal brent crude price action. Key highlights pf the report include:
BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Source: OPEC The chart above shows the supply and demand imbalances thus far in 2021. The trend of excess demand is likely to continue as we round off 2021 however, the margins are likely to reduce as supply increases and demand is anticipated to drop. Expected drops in demand from both China and India due to high prices may weigh negatively on brent crude going froward. BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG The daily brent crude chart above may be suggestive of a bull flag pattern (blue), traditionally representing a continuation of the earlier uptrend. Last week saw an unsuccessful test of the $80.00 support level which simultaneously broke below flag support. The daily candles did not close below flag support thus leaving behind two long lower wicks (bullish indication). A confirmation close below flag support may suggest further downside and potentially targeting subsequent support levels. From the bullish perspective, a break above flag resistance could bring the $86.65 resistance level into consideration. Key resistance levels: Key support levels:
S&P 500 INDEX SLIPS AFTER ALL-TIME HIGHSEarnings season in the U.S. has given SPX bulls the much needed stimulus to hit record levels last week but has since dissipated as Fed taper talk and the potential for sooner than expected tightening in 2022. This does not bode well for the SPX constituents long-term as the current accommodative environment may soften ahead of time. Thus far we have witnessed a remarkable feat of 82% of earnings coming in above estimates according to Refinitiv – see graphic below. With more to come, the index may see consequent highs should this trend continue; a likely outcome as prior results have revealed the ability of U.S. firms to transfer the cost of inflation onto the end consumer.
Boost your stock market knowledge with our articles on the types of stocks available, how equities impact the economy, and getting started with stock trading. The bullish argument is further augmented by historic trends as seen in the chart below. November tends to provide significant gains compared to other months of the year barring April along with lower volatility. The volatility aspect holds true in 2021 and only time will tell if the SPX will live up to its reputation of outperformance in November.
SPX DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Recent wading in and around the longer-term trendline (black) may continue as earnings season develops. Month-to-date (MTD) the index is already up 0.95%, still below the historic average of +1.50% albeit a rough guideline. This being said, SPX has been quite extended to the upside and has recently come out of overbought territory on the RSI so the current drop in price may push lower towards trendline support. Key resistance levels: Key support levels: UK ECONOMIC DATA MAY KICKSTART HAWKISH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKPound sterling has been in free fall since the Bank of England (BoE) surprise rate announcement last week. The U.S. dollar has concurrently gained traction as a safe-haven play (Evergrande) and an increase in the policy tightening debate. Thursday this week saw weak UK GDP data adding to the depreciation against the greenback. Next week, UK inflation may spark a recovery for the pound should actual data come in higher than expected – see calendar below.
Source: DailyFX economic calendar The December BoE meeting as outlined below has markets pricing in a 51.65% probability of a rate hike at 0.35%. I foresee this percentage probability figure to escalate as the meeting draws closer in December. The reasoning behind this the persistent inflation rhetoric being sustained with global supply constraints and elevated energy prices unlikely to abate during this period. This should lead to a stronger GBP, but the dollar faces similar motivating factors that favor USD strength. The difference between the Fed and BoE in terms of rate hike paths (timeline) may sway courtesy to sterling short-term as the Fed is likely to only hike in 2022 (potentially 2023) while the BoE could announce a hike in the December meeting. BoE RATE HIKEPROBABILITY
Source: Refinitiv Article 16 as detailed in the write-up by my colleague Justin McQueen has brought an additional negative haze around the pound. The potential for a trade war between the EU and UK could be catastrophic for the currency and progress on this matter should be monitored closely. GBP/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG For much of 2021 GBP/USD has been trading within a downward channel (black) as shown in the daily chart above. Channel support is being called into question once more. Can this lower trendline hold? We have seen marginal breaks below trendline support in March 2021 but has since held firm against bearish pressure. The fundamental economic data should give some directional bias to the pair next week which I believe should see some uptick in GBP/USD price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this notion in the form of bullish divergence which related to a contrary movement in the RSI (green) relative to the underlying price action. In simple terms, GBP/USD is forming lower lows while the RSI reflects higher lows (green). Generally this phenomena leads to higher prices of the underlying asset but timeframe can be difficult to predict. In summary, there is potential for further downside (short-term) but I believe this will be limited before the a reversal in price leads to pound appreciation. Key resistance levels:
Key support levels: Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas
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| Posted: 12 Nov 2021 12:20 PM PST
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| YARD MAN SMASHED $15K IN PROFITS TRADING FOREX | USDCHF & EURJPY CHART MARK UP REVIEW Posted: 12 Nov 2021 11:55 AM PST
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