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- TOP 5 pannelli rigidi: quale supporto scegliere? (Polionda, Forex, Plexiglass…)
- AUD/USD Eyes Australian Wage Data After US Dollar Strengthens on Retail Sales
- Forex System EZ Scalper 2020 ��
- New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis: EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/JPY
- Weekly Forex Forecast (04/10/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX [HD]
- S&P 500 Flirts with Record Close as Consumer Strength Boosts Confidence in the Economy
- Starting a Trading Career Q&A | At the Table by Urban Forex Ep.005
- Steps to Take When You Can’t Get a Business Loan
- He Passed 2 $100K FTMO Challenges With A Forex Robot…
- Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update
| TOP 5 pannelli rigidi: quale supporto scegliere? (Polionda, Forex, Plexiglass…) Posted: 16 Nov 2021 04:53 PM PST
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| AUD/USD Eyes Australian Wage Data After US Dollar Strengthens on Retail Sales Posted: 16 Nov 2021 04:15 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Natural Gas, Japan trade balance – Talking Points
Wednesday's Asia-Pacific ForecastThe Australian Dollar is slightly lower against the US Dollar moving into the Asia-Pacific trading session. AUD/USD was up overnight, but upbeat US economic data sent the Greenback higher along with Treasury yields. The 5-year note's yield hit a fresh yearly high at 1.282%. Retail sales in the United States crossed the wires at 1.7% versus an expected 1.5%. That cooled concerns that higher prices were tempering consumption. Technology stocks gained on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq 100 index closing 0.75% higher. Meanwhile, natural gas prices surged in Europe after Germany suspended regulatory efforts to clear a gas pipeline from Russia. The highly-controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline is already completed but hasn't been put into service. Germany says the pipeline builder hasn’t dedicated sufficient assets and resources to its German-based subsidiary. A company spokesperson said they would comply, according to a WSJ report. However, it's not clear at this time how long it will take to restart the certification process. Oil prices fell overnight, with the WTI benchmark slicing below the critically important 80 handle. The drop comes amid reports of rising US production – particularly in the Permian Basin. The stronger US Dollar may have also worked to drag down prices. Gold and silver also fell in the commodities space. Energy traders are still awaiting word on a possible withdrawal from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This morning saw Japan's October trade balance cross the wires along with machine orders for September. Japan's trade balance rose to –¥67.4 billion from –¥624.1 billion, beating the consensus –¥320 billion forecast, according to Bloomberg data. September's core machine orders missed expectations at 12.5% on a year-over-year basis. Elsewhere, Australia will report its Q3 wage price index along with a leading index figure from Westpac. The wage price index is expected to rise 2.2% y/y. A better-than-expected print may see some AUD upside owing to an impact on RBA rate hike bets. Yesterday's RBA minutes didn't offer any surprises, but the central bank is forecasting higher inflation. AUD/USD Technical ForecastAUD/USD fell overnight, taking back the bulk of gains made from the prior two sessions. The bullish outlook from last week's Bullish Engulfing candlestick is quickly evaporating. A break below the November low at 0.7276 would likely open the door for more downside, but bulls may defend the level if prices continue to fall. AUD/USD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView — Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter
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| Forex System EZ Scalper 2020 �� Posted: 16 Nov 2021 03:51 PM PST
Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ SASANFX1 is all about Trading Forex for beginners. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::  Free Download:In order to understand the Rules for the system, You should find and Watch the Video on SASANFX1 channel. Note: Files are Zip file , you need unzip (by a program like Winrar) the file before installation. :::::::::::::: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/7k7AzF… More Forex Tags: source Click to rate this post! [Total: 0 Average: 0] |
| New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis: EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/JPY Posted: 16 Nov 2021 03:13 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ New Zealand Dollar, NZD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/JPY – Talking Points
EUR/NZD Technical AnalysisKiwi strength saw EUR/NZD make fresh yearly lows to start the month, having sunk right through key trendline support. Since carving out a fresh bottom around 1.608, price has gyrated, allowing for the pair to recover from oversold territory on the relative strength index (RSI). The sideways price action has seen the formation of a bear flag, which may indicate that further weakness may be ahead. Candles in the flag have found stiff resistance in the form of the February low at 1.6323. Should price bounce and not make a fresh 2021 low, a retest of the February or even March lows could be on the cards. EUR/NZD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView NZD/CAD Technical AnalysisNZD/CAD has struggled for direction of late, with the pair gyrating around both sides of 0.8850. With a Death Cross formation potentially imminent, as the 50-day and 200 day moving averages converge, market participants may look for this Kiwi cross to explore lower prices. Declining relative strength adds to the notion that bullish sentiment remains weak. Downside targets may be found in the 0.5 Fib retracement level at 0.8675, or further below at 0.8600. Should price reverse its current course, a break through the 50 and 200-day moving averages may be preliminary targets for market participants. NZD/CAD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView NZD/JPY Technical AnalysisNZD/JPY price action has seen the formation of a bull flag, following a sharp move higher in October. For much of the last few months, price has gyrated between 76.00 and 79.00, with the aforementioned leg higher in October finally breaking the pair out of its range. A cooldown in price has seen price gravitate back towards the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at 80.182. A break higher and confirmation of the bull flag formation could see the cross run out to fresh yearly highs above 82.50. Should price breakdown and explore lower prices, a test of the 50-day moving average may be on the cards around 79.25. NZD/JPY Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView Resources for Forex TradersWhether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. — Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter
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| Weekly Forex Forecast (04/10/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX [HD] Posted: 16 Nov 2021 02:49 PM PST
Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ Forex pairs covered in this week's Weekly Forex Forecast & Forex Analysis: USD (DXY), EurUsd, GbpUsd, UsdChf, UsdJpy, NzdUsd, AudUsd, Crude Oil (WTI), GbpCad, EurCad, CadJpy, SPX (S&P 500), Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nifty, XauUsd (Gold Analysis), XagUsd (Silver Analysis), Btc/Usd ( Bitcoin Analysis). The Forex analysis outlined in the Weekly Forex Forecast should be used together with professional Risk Management principles to create a complete Forex strategy. Any Forex trader who does not currently have a professional Risk Management process can get one for free in GMT’s Free Forex Trading Course here: http://bit.ly/34hCPJv #forex #forexforecast #weeklyforexforecast #forexanalysis #forextrading #forextradingforbeginners #howtotradeforex #commodities #technicalanalysis #swingtrading #priceaction #priceactiontrading #supportandresistance #forextradingcourse #forexcourse #freetradingcourse How to use the Weekly Forex Forecast The Forex analysis in the Weekly Forex Forecast can be used with any Forex trading strategy but should be used together with professional Risk Management principles to create a complete Forex strategy. Any Forex trader who does not currently have a professional Risk Management process can get one for free in GMT’s Free Trading Course here: http://bit.ly/34hCPJv The Price Action of each Forex market is combined with key support and resistance levels, in the direction of the prevailing trend, to create a framework where the odds are in the favour of each Forex trader. We cover why this is crucial to long term success in the Forex markets in detail in the Risk Management section of GMT’s Free Trading Course (http://bit.ly/34hCPJv) The Forex Forecast video presents the highest probability directional move for every market each week as well as a “work space” for each Forex pair by putting into place the key support and resistance levels. ———— Learn to trade with the Free Get Me Trading Course which teaches traders how to trade Forex, Stocks, Bonds and Commodities as well as how to trade Forex and Stock Market Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and Risk Management Principles. Each section of GMT’s Free Trading Course can be found here: Forex, Bond & Commodity Market Fundamentals – http://bit.ly/2KxhEwc Stock Market Fundamentals – http://bit.ly/34hCPJv Technical Analysis (Swing Trading & Breakout Trading) – https://bit.ly/2KwKGM4 Risk Management – http://bit.ly/34hCPJv Take GMT’s Free Trading Course today, no sign up required at https://getmetrading.com ———— A complete Forex Strategy: The Weekly Forex Forecast and Technical Analysis video can be combined with GMT’s Free Trading Course to provide a complete Forex Strategy for every Forex trader to approach the Forex markets with each week. It uses the following process to put the odds onto the side of the each Forex trader ensuring long term, sustainable success in the Forex markets: Directional Bias By assessing the overall trend of each market a directional bias is created in each Forex pair which helps put the odds on our side for reasons covered extensively in the Risk Management section of GMT’s Free Trading Course. Support and Resistance By updating key support and resistance levels in each Forex market each week a “work space” is created allowing each Forex trader to assess potential set ups on a pullback to support and resistance levels or by filtering out trades which might be too close to upcoming support and resistance levels. It is an additional filter which increases the odds further in our favour. Entries In the Technical Analysis section of GMT’s Free Trading Course both Breakout and Swing Trading techniques are covered and both can be used to enter positions into the Forex markets for set ups as highlighted in the Forex Forecast. Stop Losses Stop Loss placement depends on the individual Forex trader with Stop Losses and Position Sizing being covered in great detail in the Risk Management section GMT’s Free Trading Course for any Forex trader who doesn’t yet know how to correctly implement these techniques (http://bit.ly/34hCPJv) ———— Thanks for watching and a big extra thank you to those who comment, like, share and subscribe to the channel! Have a great week and don’t forget to trade safely! Get Me Trading Team source Click to rate this post! [Total: 0 Average: 0] |
| S&P 500 Flirts with Record Close as Consumer Strength Boosts Confidence in the Economy Posted: 16 Nov 2021 02:11 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ S&P 500 OUTLOOK:
Most read: What Does the Inflation Surge Mean for Gold, Stocks, & the US Dollar? After a flat start of the week, U.S. stocks climbed toward record on Tuesday supported by risk-on moodsparked by robust macro data. Earlier in the day, the Census Bureau said October retail sales rose 1.7%, three-tenths of a percent above consensus and the highest reading since March, with broad-based strength in several categories, from motor vehicles to electronics to building materials. Solid retail sales results suggest excess savings and rising wages have helped Americans sustain healthy consumption despite mounting inflationary pressures and falling confidence levels, which was reflected in the latest University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. As a rule of thumb, a strong consumer bodes well for economic activity as household expenditures accounts for roughly 70% of GDP.
Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar However, the good news did not end there. October industrial production also beat forecasts, at 1.6% versus the 0.7% expected, as durable and non-durable goods manufacturing picked up the pace after disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 climbed 0.39% to 4,700, while the Nasdaq 100 increased 0.75% to end the day at 16,309. Meanwhile, the Dow rose 0.15% to 36,142, bolstered by a 5.79% surge in Home Depot shares after the home improvement company beat earnings projections by a wide margin. With earnings growing at a healthy clip, record margins for corporate America, constructive profit guidance and a positive outlook for near–term economic activity, there is room for the major averages to grind higher heading into the holiday season, but it may be time to be more selective as reopening stocks may have more upside amid improving prospects for the services sector. Granted, the transitionto tighter monetary policy could be headwind for the equity market, but it may not be an imminent threat yet as the Fed continues to embrace a dovish stance and signals that it will be patient before raising rates. That said, it would not be surprising if bullish sentiment prevailed and stocks charged towards new highs in the latter part of the year, helped by strong institutional and retail buying activity. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISFollowing the latest leg higher, the S&P 500 has come within a whisker of its all-time high near 4,718.50, a key technical ceiling. If buyers manage to push the benchmark above this barrier decisively in coming sessions, price could head towards channel resistance at 4,755, before charging towards the 4,800 psychological level. On the flip side, if upside momentum wanes and the index pivots lower, support appears near the November 10 swing low at 4,655, but a pullback towards 4,580 could materialize if that floor were to be breached in the short-term. S&P 500 FOUR-HOUR TECHNICAL CHART
S&P 500 (SPX) Chart by TradingView EDUCATION TOOLS FOR TRADERS
—Written by Diego Colman, Contributor
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| Starting a Trading Career Q&A | At the Table by Urban Forex Ep.005 Posted: 16 Nov 2021 01:47 PM PST
Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ In this fifth episode of ‘At The Table’, Navin answers some questions that he received recently. He and Armand talk about some of the essential aspects all traders face at some point in their career. 00:00 – Introduction Useful Links
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| Steps to Take When You Can’t Get a Business Loan Posted: 16 Nov 2021 01:09 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------  For entrepreneurs, oftentimes coming up with the ideas to launch and grow their business is the easy part. It’s finding the money to make it all happen that is difficult. For many small business owners, obtaining a loan from a bank or traditional lender is seemingly impossible, leaving them scrambling to find the infusion of capital they need. Luckily, not getting a business loan doesn’t have to spell an end to your business. Here’s what to do if you can’t get a business loan, and why being turned away isn’t always the end of the world. 1. Understand why you were turned down.Before delving into alternative means of raising cash for your business, it’s worthwhile to explore exactly why you were turned down for a business loan in the first place. While many entrepreneurs may throw up their hands and give up after being denied a loan, others realize the problem that prevented them from gaining access to a line of credit initially may be solvable later on down the line. If you never know why your business was rejected, you can’t hope to strengthen your weak points and return later, more confident and assured of your success than ever before. It’s worthwhile to consider some common reasons that businesses are turned away from loans, as this will help you successfully petition for financial assistance in the future. When you’ve truly exhausted your supply of creditors, however, and a business loan simply isn’t forthcoming, you need to get down to brass tacks and pursue alternative measures of establishing or broadening your commercial empire. One excellent, and uniquely modern, method is crowdsourcing. This option is easier and more profitable today than it was just a few years ago. Crowdsourcing, as the name implies, depends upon sourcing your funds from a large crowd of people. In most cases, it means taking your case directly to the public and reaching out to thousands, or even millions, of people at once by harnessing the power of digital technology. Social media campaigns and digital marketing efforts have already demonstrated that crowdsourcing can be incredibly effective. The benefits of crowdsourcing are incredibly diverse, such as when NASA relied upon it for idea generation. However, business owners will be interested in the ability of crowdsourcing to drum up huge sums of cash from the popular approval of everyday people who want to see your dreams turned into a reality. Crowdsourcing your business’s capital needs will only work if you can persuasively convince a mass audience to get behind your plans. This is why crowdsourcing is particularly popular amongst startups that have taken to labeling it “peer-to-peer investment,” though even well-established business owners can rely upon the method if they know what they're doing.
Editor’s note: Need a loan for your business? Fill out the below questionnaire to have our vendor partners contact you with free information. 2. Be careful when harnessing digital technology.Despite the allure of using digital technology to solve your financial needs, this technology must be wielded carefully and with great caution. The digital world is rife with scandal and opportunities to diminish your brand. For instance, if your crowdsourcing campaign inadvertently reneges on promises made to the funding public that is making your project a reality, you could have a public relations disaster on your hands as angry investors boycott your business. It is critical to consider all of the options available before finalizing your decision on how to fund your business. This isn’t to say that digital technology isn’t often a godsend for businesses in need of alternative financing. Online lending has been spiking so much in popularity recently that some are beginning to ask whether banks should be worried about this trend. More standard means of raising money, like getting a business credit card, are also rising in popularity as traditional business loans become more difficult to acquire. We can expect online means of raising money for one’s business to keep ticking upward in popularity, especially as more startups join the marketplace. Entrepreneurs and professionals with limited credit histories will find it frustrating, if not downright impossible, to secure a hefty business loan on favorable terms, so the proliferation of digital technology that enables greater peer-to-peer investment should largely be viewed as a win for everyone in the business community. Still, it’s imperative to remember that you must be cautious and meticulous when dealing with digital sources of money so you don’t get burned. 3. Bolster your cash flow.One of the most important things to understand is that healthy cash flow is essential to attain a line of credit. After all, those who are lending you huge sums of money need to have some reassurance of a return on their risky investment. Demonstrating that you’re capable of bolstering your cash flow ahead of receiving an influx of capital is the only surefire way for any business owner to prove to potential investors that they have the capacity to take a loan and turn it into long-term profitability for everyone involved. So, how does one go about bolstering their business’s cash flow? First and foremost, cut down on any preexisting debt you have. Few creditors will be willing to give your company the money it needs to survive if you’re just going to use it to pay off debts to other investors. Learning how to properly manage and increase your small business’s cash flow is essential to long-term economic success in a competitive marketplace. In that vein, you should ask yourself how you intend to cut the fat off your business. Every enterprise has some waste hidden beneath the surface. You may be relying on outdated or inefficient technology, or perhaps your workforce needs some paring down. Whatever it may be, looking at your current business setup and determining ways to cut unnecessary elements from your business’s structure will be necessary to get by without a serious business loan to prop you up. 4. Know what it will cost.Finally, those who shun traditional business loans, or find themselves unable to attain one, need to understand that alternative financing means are alternative for a reason – they often come with particularly high costs. If you have to rely on a third-party lender because a bank or more serious financial operation won’t give you the cash you need, it’s only natural for them to charge you steep interest rates so they can reap a return on their risky investment. If you fail to factor in the cost of alternative financing from the get-go, you may end up digging yourself deeper into a grim financial hole. Nevertheless, alternative financing methods have propelled countless businesses of all sizes to success. Dedicated business owners who bolster their cash flow will find that failure to get a business loan doesn’t mean they’ll be stranded without the cash they need forever. Alternatives to business loansIf a traditional business loan is outside your reach for the foreseeable future, there are other options to get the funding you need. Here are several alternatives to a traditional business loan: Lines of creditA line of credit is a specified amount of money a lender – usually a bank but also some alternative lenders – extends to a business. You can draw on this line of credit as needed, but you will pay interest on the amount you use until it is paid off. If you qualify for a line of credit, it is a great way to access emergency funds quickly without jumping through too many hoops. [Looking for an alternative lender? Check out our picks for best small business loans.] Short-term loansA short-term loan is any loan that you are expected to pay back in a year or less. Banks don’t usually offer these loans, but they are quite common for alternative lenders. As the name suggests, short-term loans are beneficial when you have to cover a one-time cost or need a small boost to kick your business into gear. Invoice factoringInvoice factoring is a type of alternative funding in which a company sells its outstanding invoices to a third party. The invoice factoring company generally pays 85% to 95% of the value of the invoices, giving your business cash fast. The remainder of the original invoice is paid to you once the client pays their invoice, minus a small fee that remains with the factoring company. This type of loan is ideal for businesses that regularly have outstanding invoices straining their cash flow. Merchant cash advancesA merchant cash advance is money that a lender provides a business upfront in exchange for a percentage of its credit card sales over a certain timeframe. This alternative financing option is ideal for stores that have a high volume of credit card sales each day, such as a restaurant or boutique. MicroloansA microloan, typically $50,000 or less, is designed to get small business owners on their feet. These loans are generally not available from banks, but alternative lenders provide them to businesses that need to acquire new equipment, open a new location, or hire staff. Equipment financingAs the name suggests, equipment financing loans are used to purchase mission-critical equipment. Unlike with other loans, the equipment itself is collateral, which can lower interest rates. If the equipment is valuable enough, the application approval process may run much more smoothly, because the lender’s risk is mitigated by the equipment. Sean Peek contributed to the writing and research in this article.
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| He Passed 2 $100K FTMO Challenges With A Forex Robot… Posted: 16 Nov 2021 12:45 PM PST
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Disclaimer: Trading FX and futures is not appropriate for everyone. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. You should trade or invest only using risk capital – money you can afford to lose. No representation is being made that utilizing the referenced strategy or trading robot will ensure profitable trading or freedom from risk of loss. Some or all of the referenced trades may not be actual trades and instead could be hypothetical trades or simulated trades. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, such as the costs of commissions or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples may not have been actually executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading results in general are also designed with the benefit of hindsight, which may not be relevant to actual trading. Hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of the financial risk of actual trading. The strategy producing the referenced performance may have made or lost money before or after the referenced trade(s) was/were executed, and the referenced trade(s) may not necessarily be representative of the average subscriber's experience or performance utilizing the strategy. No representation is being made that you will achieve the same or similar results as the referenced results. The performance referenced in any testimonial may not be representative of all reasonably comparable accounts, and although Blue Edge believes the information contained in the testimonial is accurate and reliable, Blue Edge has not independently verified the accuracy. source Click to rate this post! [Total: 0 Average: 0] |
| Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update Posted: 16 Nov 2021 12:07 PM PST Halloween Sale! Buy 1 get 10% off, Buy 2 get 15% Shop Now https://www.dresslily.com/promotion/Halloween-pre.html Hot deals ,ALL $12.99 Hot deals ,ALL $9.99 Hot deals ,ALL $6.99 ------------------------------------ Central Bank Watch Overview:
FOMC Walks a Fine LineIn this edition of Central Bank Watch, we'll review comments and speeches made by various Federal Reserve policymakers this month after the communications blackout window around the November Fed meeting ended. While FOMC officials agree that it was necessary to begin tapering asset purchases, it's clear that markets think more need to be done as US inflation rates have surged to 30-year highs. For more information on central banks, please visit the DailyFX Central Bank Release Calendar. Rate Hikes Coming Soon?The decision to announce a taper to asset purchases at the November Fed meeting was a well-telegraphed, unsurprising development for anyone following commentary in recent months. But even as US inflation rates have soared, Fed policymakers are still peddling the idea that stimulus withdrawal will be a slow, deliberate process, so as to not upset the economic recovery underway. Moreover, policymakers have pushed back against the shifting narrative in rates markets, too. November 5 – George (Kansas City president) suggests she still sees inflation as a transitory episode, noting "I would not disagree with those who say inflation should back off a bit." November 8 – Clarida (Fed Vice Chair) says that the "necessary conditions" to raise the Fed's main rate will likely have been met before the end of 2022. Harker (Philadelphia president) notes that he does not believe that rates will rise until the taper is complete. Evans (Chicago president) comments that he still believes that the rise in inflation is "temporary," and doesn't think rate hikes will be warranted until 2023. November 9 – Daly (San Francisco president) says that the Fed will have a better idea about whether or not inflation's rise is transitory by "the summer of 2022." November 10 – Bullard (St. Louis president) talks up potential hikes in 2022, suggesting "based on where I think we are today I actually have two rate increases penciled in for 2022 … that could change by the time we get into the first half of next year in either direction really." Daly pushes back against the idea that the Fed will act quickly, noting "right now it would be premature to start changing our calculations about raising rates," and that while "we have a challenge right now. Inflation is high – it's eye-popping – and it catches people's attention and it hurts their pocketbook…the issue is that we still have Covid." November 15 – Barkin (Richmond president) asks for patience, saying that "it’s very helpful for us to have a few more months to evaluate, is inflation going to come back tomore normal levels? Is the labor market going to open up?" and "I think it’s helpful to have some time to see where reality is in thiseconomy" before rates are raised. More Hawkish, You Say?Even though Fed officials have continued to strike a dovish tone by all accounts, rates markets are taking a different perspective on the matter altogether. In fact, rates markets are now discounting a more hawkish Federal Reserve over the coming years – more hawkish than at any other point in 2021. We can measure whether a Fed rate hike is being priced-in using Eurodollar contracts by examining the difference in borrowing costs for commercial banks over a specific time horizon in the future. Chart 1 below showcases the difference in borrowing costs – the spread – for the December 2021 and December 2023 contracts, in order to gauge where interest rates are headed by December 2023. Eurodollar Futures Contract Spread (December 2021-December 2023) [BLUE], US 2s5s10s Butterfly [ORANGE], DXY Index [RED]: Daily Timeframe (January 2021 to November 2021) (Chart1)
By comparing Fed rate hike odds with the US Treasury 2s5s10s butterfly, we can gauge whether or not the bond market is acting in a manner consistent with what occurred in 2013/2014 when the Fed signaled its intention to taper its QE program. The 2s5s10s butterfly measures non-parallel shifts in the US yield curve, and if history is accurate, this means that intermediate rates should rise faster than short-end or long-end rates. As has been the case for several weeks now, continually elevated Eurodollar spreads alongside action in the US yield are consistent with the 2013/2014 period that suggests a more hawkish Fed is soon to arrive – even if the narrative being pedaled by FOMC officials is quite different. There are 143.25-bps of rate hikes (that's five 25-bps rate hikes plus a 73% chance of a sixth hike) discounted through the end of 2023 while the 2s5s10s butterfly recently reached its widest spread since the Fed taper talk began in June (and its widest spread of all of 2021). Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations: Fed Funds Futures (November 16, 2021) (Table 1)
Rate hike expectations remain quite elevated through mid-November, holding onto their gains from October and rebounding from their dip after the November Fed meeting. Earlier this month, ahead of the November Fed meeting. Fed funds futures were discounting an 81% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in June 2022 – and that's exactly where they remain today. This remains the most hawkish that rates markets have been since the start of the pandemic. IG Client Sentiment Index: USD/JPY Rate Forecast (November 16, 2021) (Chart 2)
USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 29.74% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.36 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.71% lower than yesterday and 15.01% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.42% lower than yesterday and 10.71% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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