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USD/JPY Aims Higher After Japan’s Core CPI Falls Short of Expectations

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 04:44 PM PST



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Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, Japan Inflation, Oil, Technical Forecast – Talking Points

  • Japanese Yen largely unchanged on October consumer price index data
  • Oil trims losses, but traders remain laser-focused on potential inventory releases
  • USD/JPY rides trendline support higher as gains remain intact for the week

Friday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets look set to close out the week on a quiet note Friday, with AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY mostly unchanged in overnight trading. US traders rotated into technology stocks after chipmaker Nvidia posted impressive third-quarter earnings. That pushed the broader technology sector higher, with the NDX 100 index closing 1.07% higher versus the 0.17% drop seen in the Dow Jones.

The US Dollar was also largely unchanged as Treasury yields stabilized following some upward pressure on the longer end of the curve earlier in the week. Crude oil moved nearly 1% higher overnight, although prices remain near 6-week lows as traders assess potential inventory releases out of the United States and China. China is reportedly preparing to release crude reserves at the behest of the United States, according to Reuters.

This morning, Japan released inflation data for October via the National consumer price index (CPI). Prices rose 0.1% on a year-over-year basis, missing the expected 0.2% rise. Core inflation – which strips out volatile food and energy prices – rose 0.1%. The Yen failed to react to the data prints, with USD/JPY hovering near the 114.25 mark.

The Turkish Lira fell overnight to an all-time low, inflaming a currency crisis that threatens economic progress. President Erdogan has forced an unusual monetary strategy over the last several years, one that has seen several central bank chiefs replaced. Mr. Erdogan's overall economic strategy has bewildered economists and plunged his approval ratings. USD/TRY is up nearly 16% this month.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast

USD/JPY is higher on the week, although some of those gains were trimmed after prices dropped Wednesday. That drop formed off a Bearish Engulfing candlestick on the 8-hour chart. A rising trendline from early November, along with the 20-day Simple Moving Average, stemmed further losses. Prices will turn to the November high at 114.971 if trendline support holds. Otherwise, breaking back below the trendline will bring the 20-day SMA back into focus.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

usdjpy

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter




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0 to 100% MONEY in Trading Small FOREX Account – Part 7 – Forex Day Trading

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 04:15 PM PST




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I have successfully doubled the Small Forex Account Challenge in the 7th Part. Profit! What trades I took to make money in trading small account? Lets see.
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The 50 dollars small account is finally up by around 100 percent. We have successfully doubled the small Forex Trading Account. In the last episode, we managed to get this account up to 80 percent in profit. In this video, you will learn how I was able to find this trade, that finally got this account to 100 percent in profit. Furthermore, you will also see the win rate, the number of trades I had to take to double the account, and how many number of winners and losers I had along the way.

So if you are trading on a small account, this video will help you see the win rate required to make money as a trader.

First of all, lets understand the reason behind taking this trade. In almost all trading videos I have uploaded on this channel, I always say, take trade in the direction of the long term trend, and use the 200 period moving average to find that long term trend.

On this chart, price was in a strong uptrend. It was above the 200 period exponential moving average. When I opened this chart, the price was giving a pullback.

Also, the price was respecting the trend line while giving a pullback. Since the price was above the 200 period moving average, I was only looking to buy. But when MACD gave a buy entry signal, I didn’t immediately buy. That’s because the price was still respecting the strong trendline resistance. So instead of taking a trade immediately, I waited for the price to break this trend line resistance, and make a higher high.

If you are watching the Trading Rush Channel for the first time, and don’t know about the MACD strategy, watch the first video on this channel. It’s a trading strategy that had the highest win rate when I tested it 100 times.

Along with the trend line resistance, I also drew other strong supports and resistances on the chart. The red lines indicates the strong support and resistance levels, and the orange line means a weak level.

After MACD gave a buy entry signal, the price was struggling to cross the strong support level. This indicates a buying pressure in this area. But still, price was respecting the trendline resistance. So I waited for the price to break this area, and make a higher high.

I made a time lapse while staring at the chart. Now, watch closely. In this pullback, price was easily making a lower low. But now, it couldn’t make a new low at the resistance I drew. If you don’t know how to draw strong support and resistance area, I have made a video on that topic, watch it if you want.

When price couldn’t make a new low, it was looking like the pullback was over, and the price was starting to go up. When the price crossed the trendline and the resistance line, I took a position, and was hoping for the price to move further up towards the next strong resistance.

Stoploss was below this strong support. But as you can see, the price did not immediately go further up. It had a strong rejection at the resistance level, and the next candle that followed was a big red candle. This was kind of scary, but since I had the stoploss, below a strong support, the price didn’t touch it, and kept going up.

When I saw that the price was going in my direction as predicted, I closed the trading platform after adjusting the profit target just below the next strong resistance area.

When I came back. The profit target was achieved, and the small account had reached its goal. The price did struggle at the weak resistance i drew, but then it finally broke through.

Subscribe for more Trading Videos! Thanks!
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Nasdaq 100 Leads Markets Higher as FAANG, Chipmakers Outperform

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 03:42 PM PST



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Nasdaq 100, Nvidia, Semiconductors, FAANG Stocks, Federal Reserve – Talking Points

  • Tech shares outperform on Thursday after Nvidia powers chipmakers higher
  • FAANG stocks shine yet again, holding up equities despite weak breadth
  • Markets continue to await news on Biden's choice for Federal Reserve Chair

Tech shares outperformed on Thursday as FAANG names (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) and chipmakers pushed markets back toward all-time highs. Risk-on sentiment was apparent as the US Dollar cooled slightly and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped by 2 basis points. Nvidia earnings set the tone for the session, with the chipmaker beating comfortably on revenue and earnings estimates, while also improving guidance for the current quarter. Shares jumped 8%, which provided a notable boost to other chipmakers. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped by 2.4%, Micron Technology (MU) gained 2%, and Qualcomm added over 1%.

Nvidia Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Leads Markets Higher as FAANG, Chipmakers Outperform

Chart created with TradingView

Apple shares raced higher on Thursday by 2.9% following a report related to Apple's efforts to develop an electric vehicle. Apple's gain saw the S&P 500 notch its 66th all-time high in 2021. Also gaining was Amazon, with the company benefitting from continued retail momentum and the opening of its first cashier-less coffee shop. The theme in U.S. equities continues to be rotation, as the indices appear willing to continue rotating who takes the top spot on a daily basis.

Nasdaq 100 1-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 Leads Markets Higher as FAANG, Chipmakers Outperform

Chart created with TradingView

Market participants continue to await any news on the nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Biden revealed in remarks earlier this week that he plans to make a decision around Thanksgiving, which is next Thursday in the U.S. It would appear that the decision is between current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and FOMC Governor Lael Brainard. At the time of writing, betting markets give Jerome Powell a hefty advantage in the race for the Fed Chair.

Nasdaq 100 Leads Markets Higher as FAANG, Chipmakers Outperform

Courtesy of PredictIt

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern

To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter




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How to analyse Forex charts – The ULTIMATE beginners guide

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 03:14 PM PST




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How to analyse Forex charts – The ULTIMATE beginners guide

Sometimes, it’s all about perspective when understanding a market. Different types of charts can influence how you analyze an asset like currencies.

Our Website here: https://thediaryofatrader.com

So, keep watching and don't forget to Like, Comment and Subscribe.

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#Forexchart #learnforex

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Mexican Peso Falls as Turkish Lira Crisis Saps EMFX Sentiment, USD/MXN Eyes Resistance

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 02:41 PM PST



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MEXICAN PESO AND TURKISH LIRA OUTLOOK:

  • Mexican Peso weakens as EMFX retreats amid a large sell-off in the Turkish Lira
  • USD/TRY briefly jumps to an all-time high after TCMB cuts rates for the third time in a row to stimulate the economy despite rampant inflation
  • The Turkish Lira crisis may weigh on EMFX through the sentiment channel, but it is unlikely to be a major source of weakness

Most read: Why Most Traders Fail and How to Increase Trading Success

The Mexican peso has suffered heavy losses since last week, as sentiment towards riskier currencies has soured amid broad-based dollar (USD) strength, triggered by expectations that the Federal Reserve may withdraw accommodation faster than expected to combat elevated price pressures. During this time, USD/MXN has risen from a low of 20.25 to a high of 20.89 this Thursday, before settling around 20.78.

U.S. monetary policy repricing, which lifted Treasury yields across the curve, has certainly been a headwind for EMFX, but it hasn't been the only negative variable. In some cases, idiosyncratic factors have exacerbated underperformance.

For example, the Turkish lira (TRY) has plunged about 15% against the greenback since the beginning of the month, but the sharp depreciation is a self-inflicted wound by the government rather than an external shock. In recent months, President Tayyip Erdogan has exerted extreme pressure on the country's central bank (TCMB) to inject stimulus to spur economic growth, despite rampant inflation, currently approaching 20% y/y. Cornered, the TCMB has reduced borrowing costs at its last three meetings, with today’s cut bringing the key rate to 15% from 16% previously. Following this policy move, USD/TRY briefly shot up to 11.35 this morning, an all-time high.

The easing bias adopted by TCMB may aggravate Turkey's currency crisis in the near term, sparking volatility and dragging EMFX through the sentiment channel at an already difficult time for the group that must cope with rising yields in the United States. Contagion, however, is not likely to be extreme as the TRY's decline is driven by very specific circumstances that are not present elsewhere.

As for the Mexican peso, the outlook for the Latin America currency is becoming less benign. Although its carry attractiveness reinforced by Banxico’s tightening cycle may serve as a cushion to limit outflows, US monetary policy dynamics and the fragile market mood may limit any major appreciation attempt. For this reason, USD/MXN may be slightly biased to the upside in the near term. That said, traders should exercise caution, especially next week, when liquidity will bethin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. At times, lower liquidity environments can give way to erratic fluctuations and amplify movements in financial assets.

From a technical standpoint, USD/MXN has been moving within the confines of an ascending channel since early June, setting higher lows and higher highs sequentially, a sign that the trend points upwards.After the recent rally, price is approaching the channel's upper boundary and the November high near 20.95/21.00, an area that can be considered resistance. If the bulls manage to clear this barrier, traders should prepare for a possible rally towards the 2021 high at 21.64.

Alternatively, if buying impetus fades and USD/MXN pivots lower, sellers could push the pair towards support at 20.50, but if this floor fails hold, the 200-day average near 20.20 would become the next immediate downside focus.

USD/MXN TECHNICAL CHART

Mexican Peso Falls as Turkish Lira Crisis Saps EMFX Sentiment, USD/MXN Eyes Resistance

USD/MXN Chart prepared in TradingView

EDUCATION TOOLS FOR TRADERS

  • Are you just getting started? Download the beginners' guide for FX traders
  • Would you like to know more about your trading personality? Take the DailyFX quiz and find out
  • IG’s client positioning data provides valuable information on market sentiment. Get your free guide on how to use this powerful trading indicator here.

—Written by Diego Colman, Contributor




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FOREX LENS REVIEW – BEST FOREX TRADING SIGNAL SERVICE (2019)

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 02:13 PM PST




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FOREX LENS REVIEW – BEST FOREX TRADING SIGNAL SERVICE (2019)
Brought to you by Forex Lens – Your Eye into the Markets!

Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/2RJUgNK

Join our Discord Server for free and chat with other traders in our community:

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Ask Jeff Wagner…
He was a professional institutional trader for Cambridge Associates for about 5 years in the early 2000s. Before he quit to work for President Bush (wow), he had his Series 3 and was a Member of the Chicago Board of Trade from 2002 to 2004.

In the email review he sent to us he said,

” I have spent thousands of dollars probably, over the last year finding a good forex signal service provider. It's nice to have a bigger variety of pairs that maybe I'm not looking at a given time, and it's nice every once in while, when I am on the exact same trade as one of the trade signals. Kind of confirms what I'm thinking. ”

Aside from trading in the forex market, Jeff also coaches professional fighters. Him and his #1 fighter holds a 15 – 1 record, and they are a force to be reckoned with. He is at Gracie Jujitsu VIP and has been with the Gracie family as a coach since 1999.

Join us in the Forex Trading Room each morning where we teach technical analysis and how to find high probability trade setups. You can get started by signing up for a free membership today.

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How to Manage the Emotions of Trading

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 01:39 PM PST



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Knowing how to control emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure. Your mental state has a significant impact on the decisions you make, particularly if you are new to trading, and keeping a calm demeanor is important for consistent trading. In this piece, we explore the importance of day trading psychology, for both beginner and more experienced traders, and give some pointers on how to trade without emotions.

The Importance of Controlling Emotions While Trading

The importance of day trading emotional control cannot be overstated.

Imagine you've just taken a trade ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) with the expectation that if the reported number is higher than forecasts, you will see the price of EUR/USD increase quickly, enabling you to make a hefty short-term profit.

NFP comes, and just as you had hoped, the number beats forecasts. But for some reason, price goes down!

You think back to all the analysis you had done, all the reasons that EUR/USD should be going up – and the more you think, the further price falls.

As you see the red stacking up on your losing position, emotions begin to take over – this is the 'Fight or Flight' instinct.This impulse can often prevent us from accomplishing our goals and, for traders, this issue can be very problematic, leading to knee-jerk reactions.

Professional traders don't want to take the chance that a rash decision will damage their account – they want to make sure that one knee-jerk reaction doesn't ruin their entire career. It can take a lot of practice, and many trades, to learn how to minimize emotional trading.

The 3 Most Common Emotions Traders Experience

Some of the most common emotions traders experience include fear, nervousness, conviction, excitement, greed and overconfidence.

Fear/Nervousness

A common cause of fear is trading too big. Trading with improper size magnifies volatility unnecessarily and causes you to makemistakes you normally wouldn't make if you weren't under the stress of risking larger losses than normal.

Another culprit for fear (or nervousness) is you are in the 'wrong' trade, meaning one that doesn't fit your trading plan.

Conviction/Excitement

Conviction and excitement are key emotions you'll want to feed off, and you should feel these in every trade you enter. Conviction is the final piece of any good trade, and if you don't have a level of excitement or conviction then there is a good chance you are not in the 'right' trade for you.

By 'right' we mean the correct trade according to your trading plan. Good trades can be losers just as bad trades can be winners. The idea is to keep yourself winning and losing on only good trades. Making sure you have conviction on a trade will help ensure this.

Greed/Overconfidence

If you find yourself only wanting to take trades that you deem as possible big winners, you could be getting greedy. Your greed may have been the result of doing well, but if you aren't careful you may slip and end up in a drawdown.

Always check that you are using proper trade mechanics (i.e. sticking to stops, targets, good risk/management, good trade set-ups). Sloppy trading as a result of overconfidence can end a strong run.

Learn more about managing greed and fear while trading.

DailyFX Analyst Nick Cawley on Losing Discipline

How to Manage the Emotions of Trading

Nick Cawley has more than 20 years' experience in the markets and trades a variety of fixed-income products.

“My worst trades – and there have been a few of them – have all been when my best laid plans are thrown out of the window when I lose discipline.

'I didn't use correct set-ups and stops; I thought I was 'better' than the market; I doubled up when I was losing and lost more, and I put more money into my trading account to chase my losses.

'I lost control of my emotions and traded when I should have looked without any emotion at my position and cut them and moved on. Easy to say, difficult to do, but a must for any trader who is looking for long-term success.”

How to Control Emotions While Trading: Top Tips and Strategies

Planning out your approach is key if you want to keep negative emotions out of your trading. The old adage 'Failing to plan is planning to fail,' can really hold true in financial markets.

As traders, there isn't just one way of being profitable. There are many strategies and approaches that can help traders accomplish their goals. But whatever is going to work for that person is often going to be a defined and systematic approach; rather than one based on 'hunches.'

Here are five ways to feel more in control of your emotions while trading.

1. Create Personal Rules

Setting your own rules to follow when you trade can help you control your emotions. Your rules might include setting risk/reward tolerance levels for entering and exiting trades, through profit targets and/or stop losses.

2. Trade the Right Market Conditions

Staying away from market conditions which aren't ideal is also prudent. Not trading when you aren't 'feeling it' is a good idea. Don't look to the market to make you feel better; if you aren't up to trading the simple solution may just be to step away.

3. Lower Your Trade Size

One of the easiest ways to decrease the emotional effect of your trades is to lower your trade size.

Here's an example. Imagine a trader opens an account with $10,000. Our trader first places a trade for a $10,000 lot on EUR/USD.

As the trade moves at $1 a pip, the trader sees moderate fluctuations in the account. An amount of $320 was put up for margin, and our trader watches their usable margin of $9,680 fluctuate by $1 per pip.

Now imagine that same trader places a trade for $300,000 in the same currency pair.

Now our trader has to put up $9,600 for margin – leaving them with only $400 in usable margin – and now the trade is moving at $30 per pip.

After the trade moves against our trader only 14 pips, the usable margin is exhausted, and the trade is closed automatically as a margin call.

The trader is forced to take a loss; they don't even have the chance of seeing price come back and pull the trade into profitable territory.

In this case, the new trader has simply put themselves in a position in which the odds of success were simply not in their favor. Lowering the leverage can greatly help diminish the risk of such events happening in the future.

4. Establish a Trading Plan and Trading Journal

In terms of fundamental factors, planning for various outcomes in the runup to key news events may also be a strategy to bear in mind.

The results between new traders using a trading plan, and those who don't can be substantial. Compiling a trading plan is the first step to attack the emotions of trading, but unfortunately the trading plan will not completely obviate the effects of these emotions. Keeping forex trading journals may also be helpful.

5. Relax!

If you’re relaxed and enjoy your trading, you will be better equipped to respond rationally in all market conditions.

Further Resources to Manage Emotions and Support Your Trading

For more information on managing your emotions when trading, check out our free trading guide Traits of Successful Traders, with exclusive insights from DailyFX analysts. Also on the subject, the following articles may be helpful




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5 Pro Rules to Find the Profitable Trades in Day Trading Forex that WORK – Forex Day Trading

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 01:11 PM PST




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How to find the profitable trading setups while Day Trading Forex that work? 5 steps Day Trading Strategies to make money in intraday trading as a beginner.
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Trading Strategies : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLuBdu9GKAoP6MEtX7stfzTGx62M5r3F4Z

Trading Tips and Mistakes : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLuBdu9GKAoP6lPl2txSXE8AlkhiwgWU2O

Download Excel Sheet for Day Trading : https://youtu.be/fLKd7uKZOvA

Subscribe For More Videos.

What are the Day Trading Rules you should follow?
How to make sure the trades you take while day trading forex, will have a high probability of making money? Well, here are some steps that can not only make you more money in trading, but also help you find some of the best trading opportunities quickly.

Number 1. If you have watched other videos on the Trading Rush channel, you know we always like to trade in the direction of the trend. And as a trend trader, what we usually look for is the pullback of a trend. In other words, we are looking for the market to give a discount. Most of the time in an uptrend, you will buy at this point, because no one likes to take trades at the top, unless if you are trading the breakout. For example, if there was an apple that went on sale up to 90 percent off every afternoon, many people will buy during the sale right?

Most trend trading strategies will try to give entry signals near this area. If you don’t have a profitable trend trading strategy, check out other videos on the Trading Rush channel. We have even tested them 100 times to find their win rates. And subscribe to the Trading Rush channel and ring that notification bell, because you don’t want to put your money on a worse trading strategy.

One of the strategies that performed well after testing hundred times was the alligator trading strategy. In this strategy, we use a 200 period moving average to find the trend direction, because even your dog can easily identify the trend direction with a moving average. Furthermore, moving averages acts as a support and resistance on a trading chart, especially the 200 moving average. So your trade will not only have a higher probability of making a profit, but by adding the 200 moving average on your chart, you will make sure not to trade against it.

The second thing you should do to have a high probability of winning, is avoid charts like this. Here, the price looks like a mess. Price action should be easier to read, otherwise your entry signal indicator will give a lot of false signals. On this chart, price is below the moving average and is not flat. Your probability of making money is already pretty good if you trade with the trend, but if the price action is choppy, your trade will have a lower probability of making money. Here, price is making sudden big candles, and these big candles can easily hit your stop loss. Yes you can set your stop loss far away, but then you will have to set your profit target far away as well to get a good reward risk ratio. Setting a big stop loss is not a problem if price actually moves in your favor, but if momentum slows down and if price starts to go sideways, you will be stuck in a trade for a while.

This is very common with low liquidity stocks and forex pairs. Furthermore, you should be very careful, as forex pairs and stocks can have big gaps and can make sudden moves because the buying and selling pressure can greatly vary. To have a higher profitability of success, it is a good idea to stick with major forex pairs and stock with high volume.

And if you are a beginner, trading on major forex pairs only can be highly beneficial as the price action on these pairs are usually smoother and easier to read. Your indicators will also work better.

Third thing that can significantly improve your chances of making more money, is the time of the day. Even though the forex market is open 24hrs on a  trading day, you can’t trade all day. There are different market sessions that play an important role in liquidity. During the Asian session, price usually moves sideways and is less active. Price tends to make relatively bigger moves during the London and US sessions. So you will have a higher chance of finding higher quality trading setups. You can even achieve higher reward risk ratios during these sessions. I have already made a detailed video on this topic. Check it out to learn more. 

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Oil Price Still Vulnerable amid Failure to Defend Monthly Opening Range

Posted: 18 Nov 2021 12:39 PM PST



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Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil has gapped lower for the third time in November despite an unexpected decline in US inventories, and recent price action raises the scope for a larger correction in crude as it fails to defend the opening range for November.

Oil Price Still Vulnerable amid Failure to Defend Monthly Opening Range

The price of oil slips to a fresh monthly low ($76.44) as the US President Joe Biden plans to work with China 'to address global energy supplies,' and crude may face a larger pullback over the remainder of the month as it trades below the 50-Day SMA ($78.58) for the first time since September.

It remains to be seen if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will adjust the output schedule for 2022 as the group plans to "adjust upward the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of December," but more of the same from OPEC+ may keep the price of oil afloat as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) highlights that "world total demand in 2022 is now estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d above 2019 levels."

Image of DailyFX Economic Calendar for US

As a result, indications of stronger demand may push OPEC and its allies to boost production at a faster pace especially as US inventories unexpectedly contract in the week ending November 12, with stockpiles narrowing 2.101M versus forecasts for a 1.398M rise.

In turn, the price of oil may face a larger correction ahead of the next OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on December 2 as the US and China look to utilize strategic reverses, but current market conditions may act as a backstop for crude amid the subdued recovery in US output.

Image of EIA Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil

A deeper look at the figures from the Energy Information Administration shows weekly field product of crude slipping to 11,400K from 11,500K in the week ending November 5, and the price of oil may continue to reflect a bullish trend over the remainder of the year as indication of robust demand are met with signs of limited supply.

With that said, the recent weakness in the price of oil may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend as OPEC and its allies are on a preset course, but recent price action raises the scope for a larger correction in crude as it fails to defend the opening range for November.

Oil Price Daily Chart

Image of Oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the price of oil cleared the July high ($76.98) after defending the May low ($61.56), with the 50-Day SMA ($78.58) establishing a positive slope during the same period as crude broke out of the descending channel from earlier this year.
  • As a result, the rally from the August low ($61.74) pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 for the first time since July, but crude reversed ahead of the October 2014 high ($92.96) as the oscillator fell back from overbought territory to indicate a textbook sell signal.
  • At the same time, the failed attempts to test last month's high ($85.41) has generate price gaps in crude as it struggled to hold above the $84.20 (78.6% expansion) region, withthe price of oil trading below the 50-Day SMA ($78.58) for the first time since September after closing below the `
  • Need a close below the former-resistance zone around $76.90 (50% retracement) to $77.30 (78.6% expansion) to open up the $74.00 (61.8% expansion) to $74.40 (50% expansion) region, with the next area of interest coming in around $70.40 (38.2% expansion) to $71.70 (50% expansion).
  • However, crude may attempt to fill the price gap from earlier this week if it fails to close below the former-resistance zone around $76.90 (50% retracement) to $77.30 (78.6% expansion), with a close above the $78.50 (61.8% expansion) to $78.80 (50% retracement) region bringing the $84.20 (78.6% expansion) area back on the radar.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong




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Posted: 18 Nov 2021 12:10 PM PST




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